PK510
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银河期货花生日报-20251211
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-12-11 09:28
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term peanut prices are relatively stable with supply increasing and downstream demand weak. Peanut futures will remain in high - level oscillations, and Peanut 01 has room to decline. [3][7] - Peanut oil and peanut meal prices are stable, and oil mills' theoretical profit from pressing is good. [5][7] Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Data - **Futures Disk**: PK604 closed at 8030, up 18 (0.22%), with a trading volume of 70,538 (up 4.79%) and an open interest of 29,799 (up 6.23%); PK510 closed at 8220, down 2 (-0.02%), with a trading volume of 101 (up 53.03%) and an open interest of 805 (up 5.23%); PK601 closed at 8088, up 18 (0.22%), with a trading volume of 17,941 (down 21.37%) and an open interest of 52,878 (down 7.99%) [1] - **Spot and Basis**: Spot prices in Henan Nanyang were 7800, Shandong Jining and Linyi were 8200. Rizeshao peanut meal was 3250, Rizeshao soybean meal was 3030 (up 20), peanut oil was 14380, and Rizeshao first - grade soybean oil was 8440. Imported Sudanese peanuts were 8600, and Senegalese peanuts were 7600 [1] - **Spreads**: PK01 - PK04 spread was 58 (unchanged), PK04 - PK10 spread was - 190 (up 20), PK10 - PK01 spread was 132 (down 20) [1] Second Part: Market Analysis - Peanut prices in Henan are weak, while those in the Northeast are stable. Imported peanut prices are stable. It is expected that short - term peanut spot prices will be relatively stable. Some peanut oil mills have raised their purchase prices, and peanut oil and soybean oil prices are stable. Rizeshao soybean meal prices have increased, and short - term peanut meal is strong [3][5] Third Part: Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: Peanuts 01 and 05 are in high - level oscillations. Short sell Peanut 01 at high prices [8] - **Monthly Spread**: Conduct reverse arbitrage on the 1 - 5 spread at high prices [9] - **Options**: Sell pk603 - P - 8200 at high prices [10] Fourth Part: Related Attachments - The report provides charts of Shandong peanut spot prices, peanut oil mill pressing profits, peanut oil prices, peanut spot and continuous contract basis, peanut 10 - 1 contract spreads, and peanut 1 - 4 contract spreads [12][18][21]
花生:供应压力仍存
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 01:42
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The supply pressure of peanuts still exists [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts is 8,060 yuan/ton with a change of -440 yuan; Henan Baisha general peanuts is 8,100 yuan/ton with no change; Xingcheng Xiaoriben is 7,800 yuan/ton with a change of -200 yuan; Sudan refined rice is 8,700 yuan/ton with no change [1] - **Futures Prices**: PK510 is 7,630 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 0.75%; PK511 is 7,704 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 0.85% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of PK510 is 8,200 hands with a change of -1,707 hands, and the open interest is 318 hands with a change of -11 hands; the trading volume of PK511 is 86,174 hands with a change of -12,799 hands, and the open interest is 72,555 hands with a change of -2,612 hands. The trading volume of the whole peanut market is 149,525 hands with a change of -6,126 hands, and the open interest is 193,061 hands with a change of 14,926 hands [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of the whole peanut market are 0 hands with no change [1] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of Liaoning 308 general peanuts is 430 yuan/ton; Henan Baisha general peanuts is 470 yuan/ton; Xingcheng Xiaoriben is 170 yuan/ton; Sudan refined rice is 1,070 yuan/ton. The 10 - 11 inter - period spread is -74 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Spot Market Focus - In the Henan Baisha production area, it is the busy agricultural season, with little remaining and high - quality goods. The trading is basically suspended. In Kaifeng, the price of large peanut general rice is about 4.1 yuan, with little dry goods, low supply, and few inquiries for purchase. Most areas have weak prices [2] - In the Jilin production area, the price of 308 general rice is about 4.0 - 4.05 yuan, and some high - quality goods are about 4.1 yuan. The supply in the production area is increasing day by day, but there are few buyers. Most areas have stable and weak prices [2] - In the Jinzhou area of Liaoning, the price of 308 general rice is about 4.0 - 4.05 yuan, and Xingcheng Xiaoriben general rice is about 3.8 - 4.0 yuan, priced according to moisture and quality. The supply is low, there are few buyers, and most areas have stable and weak prices [2] - In most areas of Shandong, the rainy weather affects the supply. In Linyi, the price of high - quality Haihua general rice is about 4.0 yuan. There is a large quality difference, priced according to moisture and quality. The number of buyers is average, and the price of high - quality goods in most areas is stable [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of peanuts is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3][4]