Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The trading volume of peanuts has decreased, the price of general peanuts has continued to decline, and the purchase price of oil mills has remained stable. The downstream consumption is still weak, and the futures price is oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to establish short positions above 8300 for October peanuts, try the option strategy of selling pk510 - C - 8400, and conduct reverse arbitrage for the 10 - 1 spread when it is high [5][6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Option strategy: Try selling the pk510 - C - 8400 option strategy [5]. - Trading logic: Decreased peanut trading volume, falling general peanut prices, stable oil mill purchase prices, weak downstream consumption, and oscillating futures prices at the bottom [6]. - Strategy: Establish short positions above 8300 for October peanuts [6]. - Spread strategy: Conduct reverse arbitrage for the 10 - 1 spread when it is high [6]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - Peanut price: The price of general peanuts has declined, with the price of Henan peanuts dropping. The purchase price of oil mills and the price of imported peanuts have remained stable. Shandong Junan large peanuts are at 4.1 yuan/jin, Henan Zhengyang new - season peanuts are at 4.25 yuan/jin (down 0.1 yuan/jin from last week), Liaoning Changtu Baisha is at 4.2 yuan/jin (down 0.1 yuan/jin from last week), and Jilin Fuyu Baisha is at 4.2 yuan/jin (down 0.1 yuan/jin from last week). The price of Sudanese peanuts is 8300 yuan/ton, remaining stable. The oil mill's basic purchase price is between 7500 - 7650 yuan/ton, remaining stable [9][11]. - Domestic demand: The operating rate of oil mills has slightly increased. As of August 7, the operating rate of peanut oil mills this week is 5.11%, a 0.8% increase from the previous week. The inventory of oil mills has decreased, with the arrival volume this week at 0.08 million tons, an increase. The peanut inventory of oil mills is 96,300 tons, a decrease of 6000 tons from last week, and the peanut oil inventory is 39,000 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from last week [13][15]. - Pressing profit: The purchase price of peanuts and the price of peanut oil are stable, but the pressing profit has slightly decreased. The pressing profit of peanut oil mills is 119 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton from last week. The average price of first - grade peanut oil is 14,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week, and the price of small - squeezed concentrated fragrant oil is 16,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week. The price of peanut meal is strong, at 3260 yuan/ton this week, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from last week [17][19]. - Basis and spread: It is advisable to wait and see. This week, the October - January spread of peanuts has remained stable at around 140 yuan, and the spot - futures price difference has declined [21][24]. - Peanut imports: In June, the import of peanut kernels was 27,000 tons, and from January to June, the cumulative import was 94,000 tons, a 76% decrease compared to the same period last year. The export of peanut kernels in June was 1000 tons, and from January to June, the cumulative export was 78,000 tons, a 30% increase compared to the same period last year. The import of peanut oil in June was 39,000 tons, and from January to June, the cumulative import of peanut oil was 182,000 tons, a 33% increase compared to last year [27][29]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Peanut price: Charts show the historical prices of Shandong general peanut kernels, oil mill purchase prices, and the basis between Shandong spot and continuous contracts [10]. - Basis and spread: Charts show the historical trends of the 1 - 4 spread, 4 - 10 spread, and 10 - 1 spread of peanuts [39]. - Peanut imports and exports: Charts show the historical import and export volumes of peanut kernels and peanut oil, as well as the cumulative import volume and price of peanut oil [28][56]. - Pressing profit: Charts show the historical pressing profit of peanut oil mills, the price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal, and the price of Shandong peanut oil [18]. - Downstream data: Charts show the historical operating rate of pressing plants, peanut pressing volume, and peanut oil inventory of oil mills [51].

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2025 年 6 月 12 日 | 研究员：刘大勇 | | --- | 期货从业证号： F03107370 投资咨询证号： Z0018389 联系方式： :liudayong_qh@chinastck .c om.cn | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2025/6/12 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK504 | | 8042 | -16 | -0.20% | 4 | -69.23% | 102 | 0.99% | | PK510 | | 8208 | -26 | -0.32% | 60,065 | -45.33% | 132,256 | -0.09% | | PK601 | | 7990 | -26 | -0.33% | 551 | -58.29% | 3,775 | 6.67% | | 现货与基差 | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The peanut market is experiencing high-level fluctuations due to low supply. Although the price of general peanuts is stable, the new peanut planting area is expected to increase and the planting cost to decrease, limiting the rebound height. It is recommended to short 10 peanuts above 8500, conduct reverse arbitrage on the 10 - 1 spread when it is high, and try the option strategy of selling pk510 - C - 8800 [4]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Logic**: The trading volume of peanuts is average. The prices of general peanuts, oil - mill purchase prices, and imported peanuts are stable. The import volume has decreased significantly, the oil - mill operating rate has declined, peanut meal prices have slightly dropped following soybean meal, and peanut oil prices are stable. The downstream consumption is still weak, with the oil - mill peanut oil inventory decreasing and the peanut inventory remaining high. Recently, the weather in Henan and other places has been dry, but the new peanut planting area is expected to increase and the planting cost to decrease, limiting the rebound height [4]. - **Strategy**: Short 10 peanuts above 8500, conduct reverse arbitrage on the 10 - 1 spread when it is high, and try the option strategy of selling pk510 - C - 8800 [4]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **Peanut Price**: In the domestic market, peanut prices in the Northeast and Henan production areas have risen. The price of large peanuts in Junan, Shandong is 4.2 yuan per catty, remaining stable from last week; the price of new - season peanuts in Zhengyang, Henan is 4.85 yuan per catty, up 0.1 yuan per catty from last week; the price of Baisha peanuts in Changtu, Liaoning is 4.8 yuan per catty, remaining stable from last week; the price of Baisha peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin is 4.85 yuan per catty, up 0.05 yuan per catty from last week. The price of general peanuts has slightly increased. The oil - mill purchase price is stable, generally between 7350 - 7700 yuan per ton. The price of imported Sudan peanuts is 8300 yuan per ton, remaining stable from last week [8]. - **Domestic Demand**: The oil - mill operating rate has decreased. As of June 5, the operating rate of peanut oil mills this week is 8.42%, a 3% decrease from last week. The oil - mill peanut inventory is 14.5 tons, a decrease of 0.65 tons from last week, and the peanut oil inventory is 4.01 tons, a decrease of 0.02 tons from last week [11]. - **Pressing Profit**: The peanut - purchasing price of peanut oil mills is stable, the peanut meal price has dropped, and the peanut oil price is stable. The oil - mill pressing profit is 39 yuan per ton, a decrease of 28 yuan per ton from last week. The average price of first - grade peanut oil is 15000 yuan per ton, and the price of small - pressed fragrant oil is 17000 yuan per ton, both remaining stable from last week. Due to the drop in soybean meal prices, the peanut meal price has dropped to 3200 yuan per ton this week, a decrease of 50 yuan per ton from last week [14]. - **Basis and Spread**: It is recommended to wait and see. This week, due to the rise in the price of 10 - contract peanuts, the 10 - 1 spread has remained stable at around 250 yuan [18]. - **Peanut Import and Export**: In April, 12,000 tons of peanut kernels were imported, and from January to April, 54,000 tons were imported, a 78% decrease from the same period last year. In April, 18,000 tons of peanut kernels were exported, and from January to April, 63,000 tons were exported, a 27% increase from the same period last year. In April, 27,000 tons of peanut oil were imported, and from January to April, 114,000 tons were imported, a 23% increase from the same period last year [23]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Peanut Price**: The data shows the price trends of Shandong general peanut kernels, the price of oil - mill peanut purchases, and the basis between Shandong spot and continuous contracts [7]. - **Domestic Demand**: The data shows the trends of the oil - mill operating rate, peanut kernel inventory, and pressing volume [10]. - **Pressing Profit**: The data shows the trends of the oil - mill pressing profit, the price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal, and the price of Shandong peanut oil [13]. - **Basis and Spread**: The data shows the trends of the basis between Shandong peanuts and continuous contracts and the 10 - 1 spread [17]. - **Peanut Import and Export**: The data shows the trends of peanut kernel imports and exports and peanut oil imports [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading volume of peanuts is average, the price of general peanuts is strong, the purchase price of oil mills is stable, and the price of imported peanuts has increased. The market expects an increase in the planting area of new crops, but the recent drought in Henan and other places may affect production. The 10th peanut contract continued to rebound this week, and the 10 - 1 spread increased. [4] - It is recommended to go long on the 10th peanut contract at around 8100, go long on the 10 - 1 spread at low levels, and try the option strategy of selling pk510 - p - 7800. [4] Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Logic**: The trading volume of peanuts is average, the price of general peanuts is strong, the purchase price of oil mills is stable, the price of imported peanuts has increased, the opening rate of oil mills has slightly decreased, the inventory of peanut meal has slightly decreased following soybean meal, the price of peanut oil has increased, and the profit of oil mills has increased. The downstream consumption is still weak, the inventory of peanut oil in oil mills has slightly decreased, and the peanut inventory remains high. [4] - **Strategies**: Go long on the 10th peanut contract at around 8100; the current lowest warehouse receipt is around 8200 yuan/ton, and the futures price is slightly higher than the spot price; go long on the 10 - 1 spread at low levels; try the option strategy of selling pk510 - p - 7800. [4] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **Peanut Price**: Domestic peanuts in the Northeast and Henan regions have strong prices. The price of general peanuts in Shandong, Henan, and other places has increased. The purchase price of oil mills is stable, and the price of imported Sudanese peanuts has increased. [6][8] - **Domestic Demand**: The opening rate of oil mills has decreased, and the peanut inventory remains high. The current opening rate of peanut oil mills is 13.38%, a decrease of 1.89% from the previous week. The peanut inventory in oil mills is 15.4 tons, an increase of 0.1 tons from the previous week, and the peanut oil inventory is 4.05 tons, a decrease of 0.01 tons from the previous week. [9][11] - **Pressing Profit**: The purchase price of peanut oil mills is stable, the price of peanut meal has decreased, but the price of peanut oil has increased, resulting in an increase in the pressing profit of oil mills to 104 yuan/ton, an increase of 31 yuan/ton from the previous week. [12][14] - **Basis and Spread**: The 10 - 1 spread of peanuts has increased from around 60 to around 100. The current warehouse receipt price is 8000 yuan/ton, and the general peanut price is 8200 yuan/ton. [15][19] - **Peanut Import**: From January to March, the import volume of peanut kernels decreased by 59.4% compared to the same period last year, the export volume increased by 21%, and the import volume of peanut oil increased by 30%. [20][22] Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Peanut Price**: The price of peanuts in Shandong, Henan, and the Northeast has increased, and the purchase price of oil mills is stable. The price of imported Sudanese peanuts has increased to 8100 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from the previous week. [8] - **Domestic Demand**: The opening rate of oil mills has decreased, and the peanut inventory remains high. The current opening rate of peanut oil mills is 13.38%, a decrease of 1.89% from the previous week. The peanut inventory in oil mills is 15.4 tons, an increase of 0.1 tons from the previous week, and the peanut oil inventory is 4.05 tons, a decrease of 0.01 tons from the previous week. [11] - **Pressing Profit**: The pressing profit of oil mills has increased to 104 yuan/ton, an increase of 31 yuan/ton from the previous week. The price of peanut oil has increased, and the price of peanut meal has decreased. [14] - **Basis and Spread**: The 10 - 1 spread of peanuts has increased from around 60 to around 100. The current warehouse receipt price is 8000 yuan/ton, and the general peanut price is 8200 yuan/ton. [19] - **Peanut Import**: From January to March, the import volume of peanut kernels decreased by 59.4% compared to the same period last year, the export volume increased by 21%, and the import volume of peanut oil increased by 30%. [22]

河南产区干旱 花生盘面支撑较强 银河农产品 研究员：刘大勇 期货从业证号：F03107370 投资咨询证号：Z0018389 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第三章 | 周度数据追踪 | 10 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 花生策略推荐 GALAXY FUTURES 2 ◼ 交易逻辑：花生成交量一般，通货花生价格偏弱，油厂收购价格稳定。河南通货花生价格在4.05元/斤附近，东北花生现货稳定，进口花生价格 稳定，前3月进口量大幅减少，油厂开机率上升，花生粕现货跟随豆粕回落，花生油价格上涨，油厂榨利盈利。下游消费仍偏弱，油厂花生油库 存略增，花生库存维持高位。本周10花生反弹，10-1价差上涨。10花生交易新作，市场预期新作种植面积增加，但最近河南等地天气干旱。 ◼ 策略：10花生8000附近逢低短多。 ◼ 期现策略：当前最低仓单在8000元/吨附近，盘面略升水。 ◼ 月差：10-1价差逢低做多。 ◼ 期权策略：可以尝试卖出pk510-p-7800期权策略。 目录 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 第一章 ...