摘要 阳光电源股价上涨受益于市场对关税战悲观预期的修正、AIDC 新业务 带来的估值扩张以及国内储能需求超预期增长，尤其是在 136 号文发布 后，独立储能和配储商业模式的收益率显著提升。 预计阳光电源 2025 年业绩将超预期，二三季度表现强劲，上半年储能 发货量达 12GWh，美国市场占比 30%-40%，三季度确收量预计达 40 亿元，环比略增或超预期，且二季度减值操作为三季度业绩奠定乐观基 调。 阳光电源在全球光伏逆变器领域市占率第一，地面项目具有极高竞争力， 全球市占率约 30%-35%，与华为并列第一。预计 2025 年出货量超 160GW，对应利润约 60 亿元；2026 年出货量可能达 170-180GW。 阳光电源深耕储能系统业务，全球出货量仅次于特斯拉，美国市场市占 率约 10%，PCS 技术领先，三网融合特色突出，电网调节能力卓越，有 望受益于 136 号文后的经济性导向，实现国内业绩增量。 预计 2025 年国内储能需求增速为 30%-40%，2026 年可能更高，欧 洲市场需求超预期，大型储能和工商储装机数据亮眼，总装机容量大概 率达 30 多 GWh，看好公司在全球范围内提升市占率 ...

Summary of the Conference Call for 阳光电源 (Sungrow Power Supply) - 2025 H1 Industry Overview - **Photovoltaic Industry Growth**: In H1 2025, global new photovoltaic installed capacity reached 310 GW, a 60% year-on-year increase. China's installed capacity was 212 GW, up 107%, accounting for 69% of the global total. The overseas market grew approximately 170% [2][3] - **Energy Storage Market Performance**: Global energy storage installed capacity reached 109 GWh, a 68% year-on-year increase. Significant growth was observed in Europe, the Middle East, and the Asia-Pacific region [2][4] - **Wind Power Market in China**: Driven by policy and economic factors, domestic wind power installed capacity doubled to 51 GW in H1 2025 [2][6] Company Performance - **Revenue and Profit Growth**: 阳光电源 reported revenue of 43.5 billion yuan, a 40% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 7.7 billion yuan, up 56%. The gross margin improved to 34.4% from 32.4% [2][7][14] - **Cash Flow Improvement**: The company achieved a net cash inflow of 3.43 billion yuan, a significant improvement from a negative cash flow in the previous year [2][16] - **Debt and Financial Health**: The asset-liability ratio decreased to 61.3%, with a return on equity (ROE) of 19.2% [2][17] Product and Market Strategy - **Global Marketing and Service Network**: The company has established over 20 subsidiaries and 60 representative offices globally, focusing on localized development strategies [2][10] - **Research and Development Investment**: R&D expenses reached 2.04 billion yuan, a 34.1% increase, with over 7,000 R&D personnel and more than 10,000 patent applications [2][11][19] - **Product Innovation**: New products include a 400 kW string inverter and the world's first modular inverter. The company is also focusing on AI data centers (AIDC) [2][11][21] Market Challenges and Opportunities - **US Market Dynamics**: Recent US government policies have impacted photovoltaic and wind projects, but small projects below 1 MW remain unaffected. The company expects stable demand despite potential subsidy reductions [2][25] - **Energy Storage Market in the US**: The market is expected to grow without decline for at least the next eight years, despite challenges from new regulations [2][26] - **Global Energy Demand**: The rise of AI and data centers is increasing energy demand, necessitating more green energy solutions [2][22] Future Outlook - **Growth Projections**: The global energy storage business is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20% to 30% over the next few years [2][30] - **Technological Advancements**: The company plans to enhance its capabilities in power electronics, electrochemistry, and grid technology to meet future demands [2][32] Additional Insights - **Brand Competitiveness**: The company's strong brand is attributed to reliable and efficient products, leading to a significant market presence [2][8][9] - **Response to Industry Challenges**: The company emphasizes the need for quality improvement and innovation to combat industry oversupply and price competition [2][41]