Core Insights - The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for September indicates that consumer spending was lower than expected, with a 0.2% increase in headline sales compared to the anticipated 0.4% growth [1] - Total retail and food services sales for September 2025 reached $733.3 billion, marking a 4.3% increase from September 2024 [1] - Core retail sales, excluding automobiles, rose by 0.3% in September, down from 0.6% in August, and are up 4.1% year-over-year [4] Retail Sales Performance - Retail trade sales increased by 0.1% from August 2025 and 3.9% from the previous year, with nonstore retailers seeing a 6.0% increase and food service establishments up 6.7% year-over-year [2] - Monthly retail sales have shown consistent growth since March 2021, reflecting pent-up consumer demand post-pandemic, with a year-over-year increase of 4.3% [3] Control Purchases Analysis - Retail sales control purchases, which provide a more stable view of the economy, fell by 0.1% in September, contrasting with the expected 0.3% growth [5] - Year-over-year, control purchases are up 4.2%, indicating a steady trend despite the recent monthly decline [6] Market Implications - The retail sales data is likely to influence interest in various retail-focused ETFs, including SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) and VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) [8]

Core Insights - The upcoming holiday season is expected to boost retail sales significantly, contributing to major retailers' revenues [1] - Retail sales during November and December are projected to increase by 3.7% to 4.2%, reaching approximately $1.01 trillion to $1.02 trillion, marking the first time U.S. holiday sales are expected to exceed $1 trillion [2] - Economic concerns, including a federal government shutdown, may dampen sales growth, affecting consumer demand [3] Retail Sales Projections - Total holiday spending is anticipated to reach between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion, with a year-over-year increase of 3.7% to 4.2% [2] - Last year's holiday sales were $976.1 billion, reflecting a 4.3% increase from the previous year [2] Economic Impact - The federal government shutdown is identified as a key headwind, potentially leading to a loss of private-sector income and impacting consumer spending patterns [3] - While some economic impacts are expected to be temporary, they may still influence consumer behavior during the holiday season [3] Government Funding Bill - The Senate passed a bill to fund the federal government through January, ending the longest shutdown in U.S. history, with a vote of 60-40 [4] - The bill will proceed to the House of Representatives for consideration before reaching the President for signature [5] Consumer Behavior Trends - Consumers are showing caution but remain fundamentally strong, with lower-income consumers prioritizing essential goods over non-essentials [6] - This trend may negatively impact sectors related to services, such as recreation and dining, while benefiting retail and discretionary ETFs [6] Online Shopping Insights - U.S. online sales are projected to reach $253.4 billion this holiday season, reflecting a 5.3% year-over-year growth [7] - Cyber Week is expected to account for 17.2% of overall spending, totaling $43.7 billion, with a 6.3% increase from the previous year [8] Investment Opportunities - The online shopping trend is likely to benefit ETFs focused on online retail, such as ProShares Online Retail ETF (ONLN) [8] - The "Buy Now Pay Later" trend is expected to drive an additional $2 billion in online spending, favoring iShares FinTech Active ETF (BPAY) [8] - The use of generative AI for shopping is anticipated to create investment opportunities in Roundhill Generative AI & Technology ETF (CHAT) [9]

Core Insights - U.S. retail sales increased by 0.6% in August 2025, matching the revised growth from July and exceeding expectations of 0.2% [1] - Sales excluding certain categories rose by 0.7%, surpassing the anticipated 0.4% [1] Winning Areas - **Online Retailers**: Nonstore retailers experienced a 2% sequential increase and a 10.1% year-over-year gain [3] - ProShares Online Retail ETF (ONLN) tracks online retailers and charges 58 bps in fees [3] - Amazon.com (AMZN) is a major player in e-commerce with a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) [4] - **Clothing Stores**: Sales rose by 1% sequentially and 8.3% year over year in August 2025 [5] - SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) provides exposure to U.S. retail stocks, with apparel retail comprising about 21% of the fund and a fee of 35 bps [5] - Genesco (GCO) is a specialty retail company with a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) [5] - **Sporting Goods, Hobby, Musical Instrument, & Books**: This segment saw a 0.8% sequential gain and a 4.7% year-over-year increase [6] - Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) and VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) are suitable for investment in this sector [6] - DICK'S Sporting Goods (DKS) operates as a sporting goods retailer with a Zacks Rank 3 [7] - **Food Services & Drinking Places**: Sales increased by 0.7% sequentially and 6.5% year over year [8] - AdvisorShares Restaurant ETF (EATZ) invests primarily in restaurant-related companies and charges 99 bps in fees [8] - BJ's Restaurants (BJRI) operates high-end casual dining restaurants and holds a Zacks Rank 1 [9]

Core Insights - Amazon has launched its longest-ever Prime Day event, expanding from 48 to 96 hours, running from July 8 to 11, with expectations of significant online spending [1][2] - U.S. online sales during this event are projected to reach a record $23.8 billion, marking a 28.4% year-over-year increase [2] - The event's spending is anticipated to be equivalent to the combined online spending of two Black Fridays [2] E-commerce Trends - Amazon is offering millions of discounts across various product categories, with daily deal drops to encourage frequent consumer engagement [4] - Mobile shopping is expected to account for $12.5 billion, or 52.5% of total sales, highlighting the importance of mobile channels for impulse purchases [5] - Discounts across categories are expected to match last year's levels, with apparel at 24%, electronics at 22%, and other categories following [6] Technological Innovations - The use of generative AI-powered shopping assistants and chatbots is expected to increase, with traffic from AI sources projected to surge by 3,200% compared to last year [7] - The Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) option is forecasted to rise to 8% of overall online sales during the event, up from 7.6% in 2024 [8] Investment Opportunities - Investors can consider ETFs with significant allocations to Amazon, including ProShares Online Retail ETF (24.5% allocation), Fidelity MSCI Consumer Discretionary Index ETF (24.2%), and others [3][9][10][11][12][13] - ProShares Online Retail ETF has an asset base of $78.3 million, while Fidelity MSCI Consumer Discretionary Index ETF has $1.8 billion [9][10] - Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF holds a 22.8% allocation to Amazon and has an asset base of $6.1 billion [11]

Core Insights - Amazon reported stronger-than-expected first-quarter 2025 results, surpassing earnings and revenue estimates but provided a cautious second-quarter operating income guidance due to tariff uncertainties [1][3][6] Financial Performance - Earnings per share reached $1.59, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.35 and up from 98 cents a year ago [3] - Revenues grew 10% year over year to $155.7 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate of $154.56 billion [3] - Amazon's advertising business was the fastest-growing division, with ad revenues increasing 19% year over year to $13.9 billion [4] - Online store sales grew 6% to $57.41 billion, while Amazon Web Services (AWS) revenues soared 17% year over year to $29.3 billion [4] Future Outlook - For the second quarter of 2025, Amazon expects revenues in the range of $159-$164 billion, with a consensus estimate of $160.46 billion [6] - Operating income is projected to be between $13 billion and $17.5 billion, with a cautious outlook due to uncertain consumer demand influenced by tariff policies [6] Investment Focus - Several ETFs with significant allocations to Amazon include: - ProShares Online Retail ETF (ONLN) with 23.9% allocation to Amazon and $66.3 million in assets [7] - Fidelity MSCI Consumer Discretionary Index ETF (FDIS) with 22.2% allocation and $1.7 billion in assets [8] - Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF (VCR) with 22% allocation and $5.3 billion in assets [9] - Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY) with 21.9% allocation and nearly $19.5 billion in assets [11] - VanEck Vectors Retail ETF (RTH) with 18.1% allocation and $235.9 million in assets [12]