Analysts at Morgan Stanley recently gave a bullish outlook on confectionery giant Hershey Foods (HSY), raising HSY stock’s rating from “Equal Weight” to “Overweight.” Morgan Stanley noted that the company could be facing a comeback after one of the most significant periods of negative revisions in Hershey’s history. Analysts see early-stage positive inflection in the company’s fundamentals, which could drive faster EPS growth. They also raised the stock price target from $195 to $211, implying 13% upside ...

Core Insights - Hershey's Kisses has evolved a 35-year-old television commercial into a multi-platform digital experience, partnering with NBC for the Rockefeller Center holiday tree lighting event [2][4] - The collaboration aims to blend nostalgia with innovation, showcasing Hershey's strategy of engaging modern consumers through experiential retail [4][5] - Hershey's approach includes leveraging social media for product ideas, resulting in successful launches and maintaining relevance in the market [6][8] Financial Performance - Hershey reported nearly flat sales year-over-year in 2024, but gross margin increased by 6.1% and profits grew by 13.2% [7] - The company achieved 6.5% net sales growth in the third quarter, driven by successful innovation launches and strategic pricing initiatives [7] - Despite challenges from elevated cocoa prices and tariffs, Hershey raised its full-year guidance, indicating confidence in returning to normalized growth by 2026 [7][9] Innovation and Market Strategy - Hershey has delivered five of the top ten innovations in the candy-mint-gum category this year, reflecting a broader transformation within the company [5] - The introduction of new flavors and collaborations, such as the Reese's Oreo, has driven significant sales, with $25 million generated in the first five weeks post-launch [6] - The company's strategy focuses on balancing timeless brand stories with contemporary storytelling to engage new generations [6][9]

Core Insights - The article discusses the anticipated economic environment in 2026, highlighting expected interest rate cuts and the impact on various sectors, particularly mortgage REITs and pharmaceutical companies. Group 1: Interest Rates and Mortgage REITs - Interest rates are projected to decline, with Fed Chair Jay Powell having already implemented two rate cuts, and more expected under Kevin Hassett's leadership [3][4] - Mortgage REITs like Annaly Capital (NLY) and Dynex Capital (DX) are well-positioned to benefit from falling rates, with yields of 12.3% and 14.7% respectively, and potential for significant price appreciation [4][5] - The easing of mortgage spreads, which are crucial for profitability, indicates a favorable environment for these mortgage REITs as they hold government-backed securities [5][6] Group 2: Pharmaceutical Industry and AI - The pharmaceutical industry is set to experience accelerated drug discovery cycles, potentially reducing the time from development to market from 10-15 years to 3-6 years due to AI advancements [7][8] - Companies like BlackRock Health Sciences Term Trust (BMEZ) are positioned to benefit from this trend, yielding 8.6% while investing in innovative drug development firms [9] - Danaher (DHR) is highlighted as a key supplier in the life sciences sector, providing essential tools and consumables for drug development, which are expected to see increased demand due to AI-driven research [11][12] Group 3: Consumer Goods - Hershey Foods - Hershey Foods (HSY) is noted for its strong brand portfolio and resilience despite rising cocoa prices, with management implementing efficiency plans and price increases to maintain cash flow [14][15] - The company has raised its dividend by 70% over five years, indicating a strong commitment to shareholder returns and positioning for a rebound as input costs stabilize [15]

Core Insights - JAKKS Pacific, Inc. has partnered with The Hershey Company to introduce a new line of dolls and collectibles inspired by Hershey's popular confectionery brands, marking a unique expansion into the confection-themed toy market [2][3] Product Details - The new collection will feature eight SKUs, including dolls inspired by Hershey's Kisses, Jolly Rancher, Reese's, Bubble Yum, Twizzlers, and Hershey's Syrup, each accompanied by themed charms and accessories [3] - The first product, Hershey's Kisses collectibles, will launch exclusively at CVS on December 26, 2025, in time for Valentine's Day, with the partnership set to run until December 31, 2026, with an option for extension [4] Market Positioning - The collaboration aims to blend the appeal of delicious treats with self-expression, enhancing the trendy nature of JAKKS Pacific's products [5] - The Charming Bag Charms are designed as a viral trend, allowing kids to customize their looks by mixing and matching dolls and charms, making them portable and versatile [6] Company Background - JAKKS Pacific, Inc. is a leading designer, manufacturer, and marketer of toys and consumer products, headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with a focus on creating a positive impact on children's lives through its products and charitable efforts [10] - The Hershey Company is a major player in the snacks industry, generating over $11.2 billion in annual revenues from its extensive portfolio of brands, including Hershey's, Reese's, and Jolly Rancher [7]

Core Insights - The article discusses the anticipated decline in interest rates and its implications for mortgage REITs like Annaly Capital and Dynex Capital, which are well-positioned to benefit from falling rates and currently offer high dividend yields of 12.3% and 14.7% respectively [1] - The introduction of "Applied AI" in drug discovery is expected to significantly shorten the time required to bring new drugs to market, potentially reducing the cycle from 10-15 years to 3-6 years, which will enhance profitability for pharmaceutical companies [1] - Danaher is highlighted as a key player in the life sciences sector, providing essential tools and consumables for drug development, benefiting from increased R&D activities driven by AI advancements [1][2] - Hershey Foods is noted for its strong brand portfolio and recent operational efficiencies, positioning it for a rebound after a period of margin compression due to rising cocoa prices [2] Mortgage REITs - Annaly Capital and Dynex Capital are expected to thrive as interest rates decline, with their portfolios consisting of government-backed mortgages that appreciate in value as rates fall [1] - The mortgage spreads, which are crucial for profitability, have been easing, creating favorable conditions for these mortgage REITs [1] Pharmaceutical Industry - The integration of AI in drug discovery is projected to compress development timelines, allowing companies to monetize successful drugs more quickly and extend their monopoly pricing periods [1] - BlackRock Health Sciences Term Trust is mentioned as a vehicle for investing in innovative drug development companies, offering an 8.6% yield [1] Life Sciences Sector - Danaher is positioned to benefit from increased demand for laboratory tools and consumables as pharmaceutical companies ramp up R&D efforts, driven by AI [1][2] - The company avoids the political challenges faced by drug manufacturers, focusing instead on providing essential support for drug development [1] Consumer Goods - Hershey Foods has implemented a two-year efficiency plan and raised prices, which has helped it maintain cash flow despite rising input costs [2] - The company has increased its dividend by 70% over five years, indicating strong shareholder returns and potential for future growth [2]

Core Insights - The Hershey Company has completed the acquisition of LesserEvil, enhancing its portfolio of better-for-you snacks and expanding its manufacturing capacity [1][3][4] Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition of LesserEvil adds a high-growth brand known for organic snacks that align with consumer demand for healthier options [1][2] - LesserEvil's product line includes organic popcorn and puffs made with premium ingredients, categorized as USDA Organic and non-GMO [2][4] - The acquisition is part of Hershey's strategy to diversify its offerings and meet the growing consumer preference for better-for-you snacking [5][6] Group 2: Strategic Fit - LesserEvil complements Hershey's existing brands, including its well-known confectionery products and salty snack brands like SkinnyPop and Dot's Homestyle Pretzels [4][6] - The salty snack portfolio has shown significant growth, expanding 1.5 times faster in 2024 compared to the previous three years, indicating a strategic focus on this category [4] Group 3: Leadership and Operations - The leadership team at LesserEvil will remain in place to continue driving innovation and maintaining product quality [6] - The combined teams will focus on delivering growth and insights to ensure the right products are available to consumers at the right time [6] Group 4: Company Overview - The Hershey Company generates over $11.2 billion in annual revenues and operates in approximately 70 countries, with a diverse portfolio of iconic brands [8][9] - Hershey has a long-standing commitment to responsible operations and community support, dating back over 130 years [9]

Group 1 - The Hershey Company has faced significant struggles over the past two and a half years, largely attributed to the impact of GLP-1 weight loss drugs on the packaged food industry [1] - Despite the challenges, there is a belief that the worst may be behind Hershey, suggesting potential for recovery [1] - The company is recognized for its iconic brands, including Hershey's, Reese's, Kit Kat, and SkinnyPop, and offers a variety of products such as chocolates, gums, mints, and baking ingredients [2] Group 2 - While Hershey is acknowledged as a potential investment, there are opinions that certain AI stocks may present greater upside potential and lower downside risk [3]

Core Insights - Hershey's candy sales are facing challenges despite the holiday season being traditionally profitable, with a noted slow start in Halloween sales attributed to the timing of the holiday [3][4] - The company is shifting focus to enhance consumer insights and digital marketing efforts, aiming to refine product offerings and pricing strategies year-round [4] - Hershey's strongest growth is now coming from its salty and savory snacks segment, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [6][7] Company Strategy - Hershey plans to invest in consumer insights to improve product mix, pricing, and packaging beyond just holiday seasons [4] - The company is enhancing digital marketing initiatives to drive growth and support creative collaborations, such as the Reese's Oreo partnership [4] Market Performance - Hershey reported a 5.6% year-over-year sales growth in its North America Confectionery segment for Q3 2025 [5] - The global candy market is valued at approximately $73.4 billion in 2025, with an expected annual growth rate of 4.6% through 2030, reaching $97.6 billion [7]

Core Insights - Hershey is optimistic about cocoa inflation turning deflationary by 2026, with expectations of a lower tariff impact than previously anticipated for this year [1][5][6] Sales Performance - The North America confectionery division generated $2.62 billion in sales during Q3, contributing to a total group revenue of $3.18 billion, with organic growth rates of 5.2% and 6.2% respectively [2] - Hershey has raised its fiscal 2025 sales guidance, now expecting a sales increase of about 3%, up from the prior estimate of "at least" 2% [3][2] Cocoa Pricing and Cost Management - Cocoa prices remain 70% higher than two years ago, despite recent declines from historical highs, prompting Hershey to continue managing cost inflation through various strategies [4][5] - CFO Steve Voskuil indicated that Hershey is modeling a net price realization of five to six percentage points for fiscal 2025, with a more positive outlook for the upcoming year [4] Earnings Outlook - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to decline, with reported EPS expected to decrease by 48-50%, slightly adjusted from a previous forecast of 50% [3] - On an adjusted basis, EPS is now anticipated to fall by 36-37%, compared to the earlier estimate of a 36-38% drop [3] Tariff Impact - Hershey has reduced its tariff implications by $10 million, now estimating a range of $160-$170 million for the year [2] - The company has modeled an additional $200 million in tariffs for the upcoming year, while still anticipating cocoa inflation [6]

Core Insights - The price of chocolate has significantly increased, impacting consumer purchasing behavior during Halloween [1][2][3] Price Trends - Chocolate prices have surged nearly 30% since last Halloween and almost 78% over the past five years [2] - A 100-piece variety bag of candy now costs $16.39, up from $7.20 in 2020 [2] - Hershey's variety packs have increased by about 22%, while Mars has raised prices by approximately 12% [3] Consumer Behavior - Approximately 80% of Americans purchase candy for Halloween, which accounts for about 18% of annual U.S. confectionery sales [4] - Chocolate's share of Halloween candy sales has decreased from 52% last year to 44% this year, as consumers opt for cheaper alternatives [4] Economic Factors - "Macroeconomic headwinds" and wage growth lagging behind inflation are influencing consumer choices regarding discretionary spending [5] - Candy prices are rising faster than the national inflation rate, with a sector-wide increase of roughly 10% compared to last year [5] Market Outlook - Despite higher food prices, consumers are still allocating budget for chocolate and candy, indicating a strong and growing category [6] - The National Retail Federation anticipates 2025 will be a record year for candy sales in the U.S., with approximately $3.9 billion expected to be spent on Halloween candy alone [5]