USD-denominated: Exports: 7.2% yoy in July (GS: 5.5%, Bloomberg consensus: 5.6%). June: 5.8% yoy. Sequential growth (seasonally adjusted by GS): +0.7% non-annualized in July vs. +0.9% in June. 7 August 2025 | 3:26PM HKT China: Trade growth accelerated in July; July money and credit data preview Bottom line: China's trade growth accelerated in July and came in above consensus expectations (exports: +7.2% yoy, imports: +4.1% yoy). The pick-up in headline export growth mainly reflected the accelerated exports ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a forecast for various asset classes, indicating a bearish outlook for equities and a mixed outlook for fixed income and commodities [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant expected returns and volatility across different asset classes for Q2 2026, with equities showing a range of potential returns from -20.7% to 24.4% depending on market conditions [2]. - The report notes that the S&P 500 is forecasted to have a base case return of 4.7% with a volatility of 19% [2]. - Commodities, particularly Brent and Copper, are expected to have substantial volatility, with Brent showing a potential return range from -23.6% to 83.4% [2]. Summary by Sections Equities - S&P 500: Bear case -20.7%, Base case 4.7%, Bull case 15.9% [2] - MSCI Europe: Bear case -22.3%, Base case 7.3%, Bull case 24.4% [2] - Topix: Bear case -23.3%, Base case 5.0%, Bull case 17.3% [2] - MSCI EM: Bear case -26.7%, Base case 0.1%, Bull case 13.1% [2] Fixed Income - UST 10yr: Bear case 7.6%, Base case 12.1%, Bull case 17.2% [2] - US IG: Bear case -2.9%, Base case -0.1%, Bull case 1.2% [2] - US HY: Bear case -4.3%, Base case 0.1%, Bull case 2.1% [2] Commodities - Brent: Bear case -23.6%, Base case -8.3%, Bull case 83.4% [2] - Copper: Bear case -21.6%, Base case -4.3%, Bull case 14.8% [2] - Gold: Bear case -20.6%, Base case -6.5%, Bull case 12.3% [2] Currency - JPY/USD: Bear case 14.9%, Base case 7.6%, Bull case -2.5% [2] - EUR/USD: Bear case -5.4%, Base case 3.9%, Bull case 8.2% [2] - GBP/USD: Bear case -1.3%, Base case 6.0%, Bull case 10.4% [2]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the RMB or related assets Core Insights - The RMB is unlikely to appreciate significantly due to persistent deflationary pressures and the need for accommodative monetary policy [6][9] - Historical parallels between Japan's currency appreciation in the 1980s and the current situation in China are drawn, but the report argues that the RMB will not follow the same path [3][6] - Significant RMB appreciation would exacerbate deflation rather than alleviate it, and sustainable economic rebalancing requires more than just currency appreciation [6][10] Summary by Sections Currency Appreciation and Trade Tensions - Currency appreciation alone is insufficient to resolve complex trade tensions between the US and China, which involve multiple issues beyond currency [10][11] - Historical instances of RMB appreciation did not lead to a narrowing of China's trade surplus with the US [12][13] Deflationary Pressures - China is currently facing intense deflationary pressures, and significant currency appreciation would further harm corporate profits and aggregate demand [23][25] - The report highlights that exporters, particularly SMEs, would suffer from translation losses due to currency appreciation [24][25] Economic Rebalancing - Achieving sustainable economic rebalancing in China requires structural changes in growth models rather than just currency appreciation [41][42] - Policymakers in China prefer investment-driven growth, which complicates the shift towards consumption-led growth [41][42] Historical Context - Japan's experience with currency appreciation in the 1980s led to a loss of export competitiveness and did not result in sustainable economic rebalancing [32][46] - The report emphasizes that Japan's currency appreciation did not lead to a significant increase in private consumption as a share of GDP [54][53]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a base case view that oil prices will drift lower, with forecasts of US$66 per barrel for 2025 and US$58 per barrel for 2026 [3][18]. Core Insights - The recent spike in crude oil prices, rising over 15% to approximately US$75 per barrel, is attributed to geopolitical tensions, particularly fears of conflict between Israel and Iran [2]. - The report suggests that the inflationary impact of a sustained US$10 per barrel increase in oil prices will be limited across Asia, with an average CPI impact of 0.2 percentage points [5][12]. - The analysis indicates that the impact on GDP growth from rising oil prices is marginal, estimated at an average drag of 0.1 percentage points [16]. - Major energy importers in Asia, such as Thailand and Korea, are expected to bear the brunt of higher oil prices, with trade balances negatively affected [17][21]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Impact - A sustained increase in oil prices could lead to a surge in prices to US$120-130 per barrel in extreme geopolitical scenarios [3]. - The report highlights that the initial inflationary impact from a US$10 per barrel increase is manageable, with economies like the Philippines and Thailand experiencing more noticeable effects due to efficient pass-through mechanisms [5][6]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - The report concludes that the current oil price increase will not significantly disrupt the rate cut cycle in Asia, as inflation is expected to remain within target ranges for most economies [18][20]. - For economies like Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore, oil prices in the range of US$75-90 per barrel could complicate monetary policy responses [12][20]. Trade Balance and External Accounts - The report notes that the impact on trade balances varies across the region, with major energy importers facing a higher burden from increased oil prices [16][21]. - The report emphasizes that the current external accounts are stronger compared to previous periods of energy price shocks, which should help mitigate some negative effects [17].

June 16, 2025 01:13 PM GMT Morgan Stanley Research Global Morgan Stanley Global Macro Forum Geopolitical Tensions in the Middle East – Our Early Thoughts on Implications for the Economy and Markets June 16, 2025 Serena Tang – Global Head of Cross-Asset Strategy | Strategist Seth Carpenter – Chief Global Economist Brian Gibbons – Head of Energy Credit Research | Credit Analyst MORGAN STANLEY & CO. LLC Martijn Rats – Global Commodities Strategist | Equity Analyst and Commodities Strategist Marina Zavolock – C ...

June 16, 2025 02:38 PM GMT Cross-Asset Spotlight | Global M Update Signals, Flows & Key Data Erika.Singh-Cundy@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0960 A weekly summary of key cross-asset monitors, data, moves, and models tracking sentiment, fund flows, and positioning. Key highlights from last week: Exhibit 1: Morgan Stanley forecasts Bear Base Bull Bear Base Bull Equities S&P 500 5,977 4,900 6,500 7,200 -16.7% 10.0% 21.7% 19% 0.54 MSCI Europe 2,169 1,610 2,250 2,620 -22.6% 6.9% 24.0% 16% 0.44 Topix 2,756 2,100 ...

点击小程序查看报告原文 当地时间5月21日，20年期美债拍卖遇冷，中标利率升破5%，投标倍数跌至2.46[1]，引爆市场恐慌，美国市场再度出现股债汇"三杀"，10年期美债利率一 度突破上行阻力位4.6%。同样的，5月20日日本国债拍卖结果也较冷，20年期投标倍数跌至历史低位2.5，10年日债利率站上1.5%[2]。我们认为， 美、日 债同步拍卖遇冷、利率上行，可能反映了当前全球流动性趋紧，而作为重要融资货币，日元流动性不足带来的外溢效应可能加速美国股债汇"三杀"。 我 们再次提示，随着特朗普"美丽大法案"（one big beautiful bill）通过在即，美债上限问题得到解决后，财政部可能 在 7-9月集中投放新增美债，美国市场 遭受系统性流动性冲击的风险上升，美联储开启QE等扩表政策来救市的迫切性正在提升 （参见《 美国流动性冲击 、重启QE与主权财富基金 》）。 全球流动性收紧 2022年6月以来，主要发达国家央行同步开启QT。较2022年二季度，2024年底美、日、欧、英四大央行的资产占本地GDP比例分别下滑了12.1、14.0、 29.3和17.6个百分点，如果仅考虑狭义流动性[3]，比例则分别 ...

点击小程序查看报告原文 当地时间4月8日，美国市场出现股债汇三杀，两个交易日内10年期美债利率从低点3.9%附近一度拉升至4.5%，市场开始担忧对冲基金基差交易（basis trade）去化带来的流动性风险。我们在 《特朗普"大重置"：债务化解、脱虚向实、美元贬值》 《美债季报：第二个流动性拐点》 中持续提示， 对冲基金 通过基差交易可能积累了1-1.5万亿美元规模的美债现货持仓。贸易摩擦带来的波动很有可能 促使基 差交易快速去化，进而导致债杀。 美债居于美元流动 性派生的核心（参见 《新宏观范式下的金融裂缝》 ），债杀易导致短端融资的核心抵押品快速缩水，造成流动性紧缩。而今年5-6月如果债务上限问题得 到解决，美债发行量增加，可能进一步吸收流动性。 我们提示，美国系统性金融风险的概率和美联储开启QE的概率在提升。 什么是基差交易？ 基差交易横跨美国国债现货、期货和回购三个市场，利用现货与期货市场价差实现套利[1]。 由于国债期货较现货往往存在溢价，且溢价水平随着期货到 期日接近而减小（图表1），投资者可以通过做多国债现货（价格较低）并做空国债期货（价格较高），并等待期货交割。做多现货的资金可从回购市场 获得 ...

点击小程序查看报告原文 春节以来，DeepSeek与特朗普关税成为全球资产波动的新变数，也牵动着投资者情绪乃至中美的宏观叙事。 一方面，DeepSeek引发对中国AI产业与资产的 价值重估，也冲击2023年以来美国AI"一枝独秀"的叙事；另一方面，特朗普启动对外加征关税，其政策的反复也加剧对美国通胀前景、市场情绪及对国际贸 易格局的担忧。 事实上，AI和关税这两大变量与国际收支表的"两本账"（金融账户与经常账户）息息相关，且互相关联。 AI趋势吸引资金流入，直接影响金融账户（反映 金融资产交易），关税政策则影响进出口，改变经常账户（反映实际资源流动）。原则上，一个经济体的经常账户余额与资本及金融账户余额（包括储备资 产）等于零，因此一者的强弱也已影响另外一者。 那么，金融账户（AI）和经常账户（关税）分别如何影响中美经济与资产走势？DeepSeek所引发的AI新叙事又会如何影响美国的关税甚至美元政策？中国 该如何应对潜在的外部扰动？广场协议后德日的不同应对经验有何借鉴？ 投资者面对这些问题时往往会发现一个很现实的挑战，即需要对政策方向做出强 假设。 我们在本文中提供一个"两本账"的新角度， 希望减少对强假设的 ...