报告指出，尽管2025年新建住宅完工总量预计将略高于2024年，但若政府希望实现2030年30万套住房的新目标，供应量仍需 大幅快速提升。分析预测，今年房价涨幅主要集中在第一季度和第二季度，都柏林地区房价预计上涨3%至4%，而首都以外地 区的涨幅将略高于都柏林。 DNG研究主管保罗·默格特罗伊德表示，去年都柏林房价通胀速度较2024年有所放缓，截至2025年12月的年度价格增长率为 5.2%，较此前12个月的9.2%显著下降。首都以外地区去年房价涨幅约为7.4%，预计2026年将延续类似趋势。数据显示，目前 都柏林二手住宅平均价格已达613,078欧元，全国其他地区平均价格为321,603欧元。默格特罗伊德指出，积极的人口结构、低 利率环境及稳健的经济背景将继续支撑房价上涨，而市场供应仍无法满足需求。 每天分享爱尔兰资讯，关注起来防走丢 根据房产咨询公司DNG发布的最新住宅市场回顾与展望报告，爱尔兰房价预计将在2026年保持上升趋势，全年涨幅预计维持 在低至中等个位数水平。 至邮箱 james@huarenzhi.com 此外，报告警示，由于将于今年3月生效的租赁市场改革提案，去年下半年大量中小规模房东正退出 ...

6 January 2026 | 7:12AM CST Equity Research CHINA PROPERTY WEEKLY WRAP Week 1 Wrap - Transactions c.30% below prior year level; Supportive notions and tax cuts to kick off new year Key highlights for the week: Central level policies: Recent article from senior policymaker via Qiushi magazine highlighted focus on stabilizing market expectations within the property sector, emphasizing 1) given the significant financial asset nature of housing, effectively managing market expectations is crucial for overall st ...

Vi e w p o i n t | China Property Dec Sales Beat on Luxury Home; VAT & Local Easing on Weaker Prices CITI'S TAKE Secondary sales -30%yoy & -1%mom in Dec — Transactions were impeded by price cuts (NBS index: -0.7%mom) & still-high 4.64mn units of listings (39 cities, despite -0.6%mom). Dec weekly volume was 24.3k units (18 cities), comparable to Jun'25; YTD25 avg was 23.6k units, -1.8%yoy (T1 cities: +2.6%; T2 cities: -5.7%). Policy: strives to stabilize property market; VAT cut — MOHURD's 2026 focus (23- De ...

23 Dec 2025 10:01:34 ET │ 17 pages Vi e w p o i n t | Vanke (2202.HK / 000002.SZ) D/G to Sell; Significant Endeavors Unable to Offset Industry Downturn CITI'S TAKE We downgrade Vanke-A and Vanke-H to Sell (from Neutral) due to: [1] weak 4Q25E property sales for the sector (Citi est. -39%yoy for listed names), with accelerated home price declines placing continued pressure on sales margin; [2] Vanke had proposed extension for onshore bonds: (i) Rmb2bn originally due 15-Dec-2025, with grace period extended to ...

Summary of Conference Call on China Property Market Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **China Property** market, highlighting ongoing challenges and forecasts for 2026 and beyond. Key Points and Arguments Market Conditions - **Weak Construction Activity**: Primary housing market construction is expected to remain weak in 2026E-2027E due to persistent liquidity stress and high inventory levels in the industry [1] - **Property Fixed Asset Investment (FAI)**: A potential deceleration in the current double-digit year-on-year decline in property FAI may occur if it reaches 85% of property sales by 2027E, as property FAI primarily reflects the cost of property sales [1] - **Secondary Housing Market**: The supply/demand imbalance in the secondary housing market is anticipated to take longer to adjust, delaying price stabilization [1] Financial Stress and Developer Challenges - **Loan Maturity Extensions**: There is uncertainty regarding the scope for further loan maturity extensions for developers, as high debt levels and declining property sales have offset benefits from interest rate reductions [1] - **Interest Expense**: Interest expenses for privately owned enterprises (POE) developers account for approximately 70% of total developer industry expenses, significantly higher than the 5-6% for larger state-owned enterprises (SOEs) [1] - **Liquidity Stress**: The liquidity stress in the industry is deepening, with increasing risks of credit defaults [1][36] Mortgage Market Dynamics - **Elevated Loan-to-Value Ratios (LTVs)**: The ongoing decline in property prices is raising LTVs for mortgages and operating loans, with a base-case scenario estimating Rmb5.2tn and Rmb0.8tn in outstanding mortgages and operating loans meeting the 80% LTV threshold [2][86] - **Bear-case Scenario**: A potential 30% decline in property prices could lead to Rmb14.7tn in mortgages meeting the 80% LTV threshold, indicating significant risk in the mortgage market [86] Economic Implications - **Household Debt Service Burden**: The household debt service burden in China is projected to remain high at over 15% in 2025E-2027E, raising concerns about a negative feedback loop affecting home prices and credit availability [5][77] - **Policy Stimulus**: Key factors to watch include any new policy stimulus aimed at reviving demand and targeted liquidity injections to developers with land banks in tier-1 and tier-2 cities [6] Adjusted Forecasts - **EPS Estimates**: The underlying EPS estimates for developers have been cut by 7-31% on average for 2025E-2027E, reflecting a weaker fundamental outlook [10] - **ASP Trends**: The average selling price (ASP) forecast for the secondary housing market has been revised down due to ongoing price cuts and weak transaction volumes [9] Developer Liquidity and Debt Restructuring - **Distressed Developers**: The report highlights the ongoing liquidity pressures faced by developers, with 28 major listed developers experiencing significant declines in asset turnover ratios and increasing numbers of distressed developers [42][52] - **Debt Restructuring Progress**: As of October 2025, 19 companies have had their debt restructuring plans approved, with a total estimated debt reduction exceeding Rmb1.2tn [69][70] Market Outlook - **Overall Market Weakness**: The overall outlook for both primary and secondary markets is expected to weaken further, with sell-through rates declining [22][25] - **Land Sales and Construction**: Land sales and construction activities are projected to remain weak until property FAI aligns more closely with property sales [27] Additional Important Insights - **Rental Price Stabilization**: Rental price stabilization is viewed as a key driver for property price stabilization in higher-tier cities [13] - **Fair Value Gap**: There is an estimated 10%-15% property price gap to fair value, which could widen to 30% if deflationary pressures persist [16] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and forecasts regarding the China property market, emphasizing the ongoing challenges and potential risks for investors and stakeholders in the industry.

Summary of the Conference Call on China Property Sector Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Property Sector - **Event**: Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) held on December 10-11, 2025 Key Points and Arguments 1. **Risk Management and Market Stabilization**: - The conference emphasized the need to take proactive steps to defuse risks in key areas and stabilize the property market through city-specific policies aimed at controlling new supply, reducing inventory, and optimizing existing supply [1][2][7] - The focus is on encouraging inventory purchases for social housing and deepening the reform of the housing provident fund [1][7] 2. **Policy Tone and Intentions**: - Compared to previous meetings, the tone in December 2025 is seen as more proactive than in April and July 2025, but less decisive than in December 2024 [2] - The language used indicates a shift from a strong push for stabilization to a more moderate approach, recognizing the imbalance of weak domestic demand against strong supply [2] 3. **Local Stimulus and Monetary Policy**: - A new round of local demand-side stimulus is anticipated, including home purchase and mortgage interest subsidies, although these are not expected to significantly alter home price expectations due to abundant supply [3] - There is a low likelihood of targeted monetary easing or pro-leverage initiatives in the near term, but urban renewals and REIT approvals are expected to accelerate [3] 4. **Market Reactions and Sales Outlook**: - The property sector experienced a share price correction in early December due to weak sales and price declines, particularly in Tier 1 cities, alongside expectations of policy easing following Vanke's debt extension [4] - A short-lived policy-driven rebound in share prices is expected, with continued soft sales projected for Q4 2025 and limited improvement in household confidence [4] 5. **Investment Recommendations**: - Analysts suggest late December as a better entry point for reviewing the sector after the recent price corrections, with top picks including Jinmao, C&D, and CRL [4] Other Important Insights - The conference highlighted the importance of stabilizing investment and resolving local government debt risks while maintaining a necessary fiscal deficit and ensuring stable economic growth [1][7] - The need for a moderate recovery in price levels and stabilization of investment from further decline was acknowledged, indicating a cautious approach to future developments in the property market [2][3] This summary encapsulates the critical discussions and insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the China property sector, emphasizing risk management, policy intentions, and market dynamics.

Summary of Vanke's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Vanke (00002.SZ / 2202.HK) - **Industry**: Real Estate Development - **Founded**: May 1984 - **Positioning**: Largest property developer in China, primarily focused on residential development, with a shift towards the high-end market [14][21] Key Financial Metrics - **Total Debt & Payables**: Rmb500 billion by June 2025, including: - External borrowings: Rmb349 billion - Bank loans: Rmb265 billion (Rmb165 billion secured, Rmb100 billion unsecured) - Borrowings from financial institutions: Rmb41 billion (Rmb28 billion secured, Rmb13 billion unsecured) - Bonds payable: Rmb44 billion (Rmb10 billion offshore senior notes) [2] - **Contracted Sales**: Rmb115 billion in the first 10 months of 2025, down 43% year-over-year [3] - **Land Acquisitions**: Recent purchases in Hangzhou (Rmb1 billion), Wuhan (Rmb349 million), and Chongqing (Rmb321 million) [3] Financial Performance - **Revenue**: Expected to decline from Rmb465.7 billion in 2023 to Rmb343.2 billion in 2024, a decrease of 26% [10] - **Core Profit**: Projected loss of Rmb45.4 billion in 2024, with a core EPS of -Rmb4.01 [10] - **Gross Profit Margin**: Expected to decrease from 14.5% in 2023 to 9.4% in 2024 [10] Market Sentiment and Strategic Outlook - **Investor Sentiment**: Negative short-term sentiment due to bond extension proposal, but long-term impact expected to be limited [4] - **Management Strategy**: Focus on fulfilling delivery and debt obligations, optimizing capital structure, and enhancing management efficiency [15][22] - **Future Plans**: Emphasis on positive cash flow, sales of non-core assets, and lower capital expenditures [15] Valuation and Risks - **Target Price**: - H-shares: HK$5.47, reflecting a 70% discount to estimated NAV of HK$18.22 [16][18] - A-shares: Rmb6.71, reflecting a 60% discount to estimated NAV of Rmb16.76 [23][25] - **Risks**: - Downside risks include slower asset turnover and worse-than-expected margins [19][26] - Upside risks include favorable policy changes and stronger GDP growth [19][26] Additional Insights - **Debt Management**: Vanke is conducting bond extensions without principal cuts, indicating a focus on maintaining liquidity [4] - **Market Position**: Vanke remains a leading brand in the property sector, supported by government and banking institutions [15][16] This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of Vanke's recent conference call, highlighting its financial status, strategic direction, and market outlook.

Summary of Skanska's Capital Markets Day 2025 Company Overview - **Company**: Skanska (OTCPK:SKBS.Y) - **Event**: Capital Markets Day 2025 - **Date**: November 18, 2025 - **Location**: Seattle, The Eighth office tower - **Significance**: The U.S. market represents a significant growth area for Skanska, with a construction order backlog exceeding SEK 150 billion and SEK 20 billion in property investments [1][2] Key Points and Arguments U.S. Operations - **Historical Presence**: Skanska's U.S. operations began in 1971, with 17 acquisitions from 1971 to 2004 establishing a national presence [4][5] - **Market Footprint**: Skanska operates 25 offices across the U.S., with significant projects in New York, Boston, Washington D.C., North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Texas, Arizona, and Southern California [5][6][10][11][12][13] - **Project Highlights**: Notable projects include the World Trade Center Transportation Hub, Moynihan Train Hall, and various healthcare facilities [6][10][11] Financial Performance - **Revenue**: Skanska reported approximately SEK 180 billion in revenue, with a workforce of over 26,000 employees [20][21] - **Growth**: The construction stream has seen close to 20% revenue growth in the U.S. over the last two years, with strong performance in residential development in Central Europe [24][25] - **Profitability Targets**: The company aims for a construction margin of 4% or greater, with a current rolling 12-month margin of 3.9% [31][54] Strategic Priorities - **Diversification**: Skanska emphasizes a diversified portfolio across geographies and sectors to mitigate risks associated with market cycles [50] - **Sustainability Goals**: The company targets a 70% reduction in carbon emissions by 2030 and aims for net-zero emissions by 2045 [33][34] - **Digital Transformation**: Skanska is focusing on leveraging digital tools and technologies to enhance productivity and efficiency in construction operations [60][61] Market Outlook - **U.S. Market**: The U.S. civil market is expected to remain strong, with a focus on infrastructure projects, particularly in Florida and the Northeast [40][44] - **Central Europe**: Increased investments in infrastructure and energy due to geopolitical factors, such as the war in Ukraine, are anticipated to drive demand [47][49] Customer Relationships - **Client Base**: Skanska maintains a balanced client portfolio, with approximately 50% public and 50% private clients, enhancing its ability to manage risks [51] - **Long-term Partnerships**: The company has established strong relationships with key clients, which is crucial for securing future projects [44][45] Additional Important Content - **Cultural Values**: Skanska emphasizes a strong corporate culture and values that drive performance and customer focus [15][23] - **Investment Properties**: The company has been building its investment property portfolio, which is expected to contribute positively to cash flow and profitability [30][32] - **Future Growth**: Skanska is optimistic about growth opportunities in both the U.S. and Central Europe, driven by demographic trends and infrastructure needs [41][46] This summary encapsulates the key insights and strategic directions discussed during Skanska's Capital Markets Day 2025, highlighting the company's robust growth trajectory, commitment to sustainability, and focus on leveraging technology for future success.

Vi e w p o i n t | 14 Nov 2025 02:31:20 ET │ 15 pages China Property Citi Research is a division of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. (the "Firm"), which does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Certain products (not inconsistent with the author ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q3 2025, the company reported flat revenues of $37.7 million compared to $37.6 million in the previous year, with a decrease in NOI from $21.8 million to $20.8 million and a decline in AFFO from $7.8 million to $5.6 million [10][11][12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Residential properties are performing well, with overall occupancy at 99% and new rental rates exceeding previous rents by over 14% [4][7] - The newly completed Prospect House is currently 60% leased with pre-market rents at $88 per sq ft [5][8] - The Clover House property achieved 100% occupancy with average rents at $88 per sq ft and new leases at $95 per sq ft [7][8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The overall collection rate for residential properties was approximately 95%, with Clover Gardens at 92% [9] - The demand for residential leasing is expected to remain strong due to constrained rental housing supply in New York City [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on optimizing capacity, pricing, and expenses to position itself for growth [9] - Future plans include full lease-up of Prospect House and finalizing negotiations for properties at 141 and 250 Livingston [16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strong performance of residential properties and anticipated continued high demand for rentals [4][7] - The company is actively working to bring office properties back to a cash flow position [5] Other Important Information - The company announced a dividend of $0.095 per share for Q3 2025, consistent with the previous quarter [14] - The balance sheet shows $26.1 million in unrestricted cash and $30.6 million in restricted cash, with 88% of operating debt fixed at an average rate of 3.87% [13] Q&A Session Summary - There were no questions from participants during the Q&A session [17]