Core Insights - Alcohol sales in the U.S. are declining, with a Gallup survey indicating that only 54% of adults consume alcohol, the lowest in nearly 90 years [2] - The decline is attributed to health concerns, economic factors, and the rise of alternative beverages [3] Industry Overview - Economic factors such as inflation and rising living costs are making consumers more selective in discretionary spending [3] - The availability of alternatives like cannabis and nonalcoholic beverages is providing consumers with more choices [3] Company Performance - Constellation Brands reported better-than-expected fiscal second-quarter results but lowered its full-year guidance due to macroeconomic challenges [4] - The company noted significant volatility in sales, particularly in high Hispanic Zip Code areas, which are crucial for its Modelo brand [5] - 80% of surveyed consumers expressed concern about the socioeconomic environment, with 70% specifically worried about personal finances [6] Consumer Behavior - There is a noted increase in brand loyalty for Constellation's products, particularly for Corona and Modelo among Hispanic consumers [7] - The company has a higher share of Gen Z consumers compared to the industry average [8] Financial Outlook - Despite current headwinds, the company remains confident in its long-term growth trajectory [9] - The expected tariff impact on Constellation's beer business is about $70 million, with an additional $20 million on the wine business [9] - Constellation's stock has decreased by 35% this year and nearly 41% from the previous year [10] Competitor Insights - Boston Beer has also faced challenges, with its stock down nearly 27% this year [11] - The company sees long-term growth opportunities in nonbeer alcoholic beverages, which represent over 85% of its volume [12] - Anheuser-Busch InBev reported a decline in volumes, particularly in China, despite revenue and profit increases [13]

Core Insights - Constellation Brands, Inc. is facing challenges in the alcohol market, particularly due to the impact of GLP-1 drugs that reduce cravings for alcohol, affecting sales of its major brands like Corona and Modelo [1][2] - The company's stock has seen a decline, with a current valuation at 12 times earnings, which is noted as the lowest seen, although this multiple contraction is considered justified given recent performance [1] Company Overview - Constellation Brands produces and markets a variety of alcoholic beverages, including beer, wine, and spirits, under well-known brands such as Corona, Modelo, Robert Mondavi, Kim Crawford, and SVEDKA [2] - The company has been described as a "fallen idol" in the consumer packaged goods sector, reflecting broader issues within the alcohol industry [2] Market Context - The alcohol industry is currently experiencing a downturn, with Constellation Brands exemplifying the struggles faced by companies in this sector [2] - The introduction and popularity of GLP-1 drugs are significantly impacting consumer behavior, particularly in relation to alcohol consumption [2]

Each week we run a DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) model on a company from our watchlist. This week’s pick: Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ).ProfileConstellation Brands is one of the largest beer, wine, and spirits companies in the United States, with strong brand power across labels such as Corona, Modelo, and Robert Mondavi. The company benefits from consistent consumer demand and premium pricing across its portfolio. While growth in beer remains robust, Constellation continues to navigate margin pressures, hi ...

Core Insights - Warren Buffett has achieved an average annual return of around 20% for Berkshire Hathaway over the past 60 years, significantly outperforming the stock market's average return of close to 10% [1] Company Summaries Sirius XM Holdings - Sirius XM Holdings is a major audio entertainment provider with approximately 160 million monthly listeners, offering services primarily via satellite [4] - The company has a current dividend yield of 4.6%, but its stock has declined by nearly 24% annually over the past three years, despite a 5.7% increase year-to-date as of mid-September [5] - Recent financial performance has shown slowed revenue and membership growth, resulting in a net loss, although the loss was smaller than expected [5] - Berkshire Hathaway and its investment managers own nearly 37% of Sirius XM, indicating confidence in the company's potential [6] - Sirius XM's forward-looking price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 7.6, significantly lower than its five-year average of 13.1, suggesting a potentially attractive valuation [6] Constellation Brands - Constellation Brands is another holding of Berkshire Hathaway, with the company owning 7.4% after acquiring over 1 million shares in the last quarter [7] - The company produces and sells alcoholic beverages, including well-known brands like Corona and Modelo, primarily in the U.S., Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy [9] - Constellation Brands offers a dividend yield of 3%, and when factoring in recent share buybacks, the total shareholder return rate is closer to 8% [9]

Company Overview - Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) is a leading beverage alcohol company with a market cap of $25.8 billion, known for brands like Corona, Modelo, Robert Mondavi, and Svedka Vodka [1] - The company is classified as a large-cap stock, emphasizing its size and influence in the beverages - brewers industry [2] Financial Performance - STZ's revenue for Q1 2026 declined by 5.5% year-over-year to $2.5 billion, missing consensus estimates by 1.9% [5] - Adjusted EPS for the same quarter was $3.22, down 9.8% from the prior year and 3.6% below Wall Street estimates [5] Stock Performance - STZ shares have decreased 44% from their 52-week high of $261.06, reached on September 30, 2024 [3] - Over the past three months, STZ shares declined by 14.5%, underperforming the First Trust Nasdaq Food & Beverage ETF (FTXG), which saw a 1.3% loss [3] - In the last 52 weeks, STZ has fallen 41.7%, significantly lagging behind FTXG's 13.9% decline [4] - Year-to-date, STZ shares are down 33.8%, compared to FTXG's 3.6% drop [4] Market Trends - STZ has been trading below its 200-day moving average since early October 2024 and below its 50-day moving average since late May, indicating a bearish trend [4] - The company has underperformed its rival, Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (BUD), which declined by 5.4% over the past 52 weeks but gained 18.7% year-to-date [6]

Core Viewpoint - Constellation Brands has lowered its full-year sales and profit outlook due to declining demand from Hispanic consumers, who represent a significant portion of its business [1][2]. Sales and Profit Outlook - The company now expects net sales of beer to decline between 2% and 4% in its fiscal 2026, a shift from a previous forecast of up to a 3% increase [7][9]. - Adjusted earnings per share are now projected to be between $11.30 and $11.60, down from an earlier forecast of $12.60 to $12.90 [7]. Consumer Behavior - Constellation's President and CEO Bill Newlands noted that U.S. purchases of high-end beers have decreased, with consumers making fewer trips to buy beer and spending less per trip [1][6]. - The trend of reduced spending is particularly pronounced among Hispanic consumers, who account for about half of Constellation's business [2][6]. Market Context - The company has been licensed to sell Modelo and Corona in the U.S. since 2013, following AB InBev's acquisition of Grupo Modelo [3]. - Concerns among Hispanic consumers include rising prices for food and essentials, immigration issues, and job market stability, which have contributed to reduced spending on various categories, including beer [5][6]. Stock Performance - Following the announcement of the revised outlook, Constellation's shares fell more than 7% in afternoon trading [8].

Group 1: Market Trends - The consumer staples sector has seen a rotation into defensive sectors, with consumer staples (0.71%), real estate (1.16%), and healthcare (3.16%) leading the market in the past week [1] - Inflows into defensive sectors may indicate the strength of the current market rally, suggesting it spans all sectors [2] Group 2: Constellation Brands Overview - Constellation Brands, a global alcoholic beverage producer, has seen significant investment from Berkshire Hathaway, which increased its stake to 13.4 million shares valued at $2.210 billion [3][7] - The global alcoholic beverage industry was valued at $1.762 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $3.015 trillion by 2030, with a CAGR of 9.7% [5] Group 3: Financial Performance - Constellation Brands reported a consolidated net income of $523.8 million for FY 2026 Q1, a significant improvement from a loss of $370.6 million in Q4 2025 [11] - The company's free cash flow increased from $879.7 million in FY 2018 to $1.973 billion in FY 2025, representing a growth of 124.28% [11] Group 4: Stock Performance and Valuation - Constellation Brands' stock is currently trading at a forward P/E multiple of 13.00, indicating it is undervalued [12] - The stock has potential upside of 18.29% in the near term, with a 12-month price target of $213.74, nearly 30% higher than its current trading price [15]

Core Viewpoint - Constellation Brands and Altria are both considered stable blue chip stocks, but Altria has outperformed Constellation significantly over the past three years, raising questions about future investment potential [1][2]. Constellation Brands - Constellation Brands generates most of its revenue from its beer business, with popular brands like Modelo and Corona, and a smaller portion from wine and spirits [4]. - The company faces three major challenges: declining beer consumption among younger consumers, decreasing sales of lower-end wines, and increased costs due to tariffs on imported Mexican beers [5][6]. - Analysts expect Constellation's revenue to decline from $10.2 billion in 2024 to $9.9 billion in 2027, while its earnings per share (EPS) is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% [8]. - Despite a low valuation at 14 times forward earnings and a forward yield of 2.5%, the lack of near-term catalysts makes it an unappealing investment [9]. Altria - Altria primarily generates revenue from its Marlboro cigarettes and has a strong domestic focus, which protects it from tariffs and foreign-exchange issues [10][11]. - The company has been countering declining smoking rates by raising cigarette prices, cutting costs, and expanding its smokeless product portfolio through investments and acquisitions [12]. - Following a setback with its investment in Juul, Altria acquired Njoy for $2.8 billion in 2023, which is expected to boost EPS starting in 2026 [13]. - Analysts predict Altria's revenue will dip slightly from $20.4 billion in 2024 to $20.2 billion in 2027, but its EPS is expected to grow at a steady CAGR of 5% from 2025 to 2027 [14][15]. - Altria's stock is considered cheap at 12 times forward earnings, with a substantial forward yield of nearly 7%, making it a more stable investment compared to Constellation [15]. Investment Recommendation - Altria is viewed as the better investment option due to its more stable business model, larger dividend, and lower valuation multiple compared to Constellation Brands [16].

Group 1 - Berkshire Hathaway has more than doubled its stake in Constellation Brands, increasing its holdings from 5.6 million shares to approximately 12 million shares, representing a 6.6% ownership in the company [1][2][4] - The company has sold its holdings in Citigroup and Brazilian fintech lender Nu Holdings as part of its portfolio adjustments [1][2] - The quarterly disclosures do not specify whether individual trades were made by Warren Buffett, portfolio managers Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, or future CEO Greg Abel [3]