Core Insights - Alcohol sales in the U.S. are declining, with a Gallup survey indicating that only 54% of adults consume alcohol, the lowest in nearly 90 years [2] - The decline is attributed to health concerns, economic factors, and the rise of alternative beverages [3] Industry Overview - Economic factors such as inflation and rising living costs are making consumers more selective in discretionary spending [3] - The availability of alternatives like cannabis and nonalcoholic beverages is providing consumers with more choices [3] Company Performance - Constellation Brands reported better-than-expected fiscal second-quarter results but lowered its full-year guidance due to macroeconomic challenges [4] - The company noted significant volatility in sales, particularly in high Hispanic Zip Code areas, which are crucial for its Modelo brand [5] - 80% of surveyed consumers expressed concern about the socioeconomic environment, with 70% specifically worried about personal finances [6] Consumer Behavior - There is a noted increase in brand loyalty for Constellation's products, particularly for Corona and Modelo among Hispanic consumers [7] - The company has a higher share of Gen Z consumers compared to the industry average [8] Financial Outlook - Despite current headwinds, the company remains confident in its long-term growth trajectory [9] - The expected tariff impact on Constellation's beer business is about $70 million, with an additional $20 million on the wine business [9] - Constellation's stock has decreased by 35% this year and nearly 41% from the previous year [10] Competitor Insights - Boston Beer has also faced challenges, with its stock down nearly 27% this year [11] - The company sees long-term growth opportunities in nonbeer alcoholic beverages, which represent over 85% of its volume [12] - Anheuser-Busch InBev reported a decline in volumes, particularly in China, despite revenue and profit increases [13]

Core Insights - Constellation Brands, Inc. is facing challenges in the alcohol market, particularly due to the impact of GLP-1 drugs that reduce cravings for alcohol, affecting sales of its major brands like Corona and Modelo [1][2] - The company's stock has seen a decline, with a current valuation at 12 times earnings, which is noted as the lowest seen, although this multiple contraction is considered justified given recent performance [1] Company Overview - Constellation Brands produces and markets a variety of alcoholic beverages, including beer, wine, and spirits, under well-known brands such as Corona, Modelo, Robert Mondavi, Kim Crawford, and SVEDKA [2] - The company has been described as a "fallen idol" in the consumer packaged goods sector, reflecting broader issues within the alcohol industry [2] Market Context - The alcohol industry is currently experiencing a downturn, with Constellation Brands exemplifying the struggles faced by companies in this sector [2] - The introduction and popularity of GLP-1 drugs are significantly impacting consumer behavior, particularly in relation to alcohol consumption [2]

Core Viewpoint - Constellation Brands, Inc. is facing challenges with high debt levels and margin pressures, despite strong consumer demand and premium pricing in its beer, wine, and spirits portfolio [2][4]. Company Profile - Constellation Brands is a leading player in the U.S. beer, wine, and spirits market, known for brands like Corona, Modelo, and Robert Mondavi [2]. - The company benefits from consistent consumer demand and premium pricing, particularly in the beer segment, which continues to show robust growth [2]. DCF Analysis - The DCF model uses a discount rate of 10% and a terminal growth rate of 3% [3]. - Forecasted free cash flows (in billions) are projected as follows: - 2025: $2.1 → PV: $1.91 - 2026: $2.2 → PV: $1.82 - 2027: $2.3 → PV: $1.74 - 2028: $2.4 → PV: $1.66 - 2029: $2.5 → PV: $1.59 - Total present value of free cash flows is $8.72 billion [3]. Terminal Value Calculation - The terminal value, calculated using the perpetuity growth model, is $36.79 billion [3]. - Present value of terminal value is $23.43 billion [3]. Enterprise Value - The enterprise value is calculated as $32.15 billion, combining the total present value of free cash flows and the present value of terminal value [3]. Net Debt and Equity Value - Constellation Brands has cash of $0.07 billion and total debt of $12.11 billion, resulting in net debt of $12.04 billion [4]. - The equity value is calculated to be $20.11 billion, with approximately 178 million shares outstanding, leading to an intrinsic value per share of approximately $113.00 [4]. Conclusion - The DCF value per share is estimated at $113.00, while the current market price is $133.04, indicating a margin of safety of -15% [4]. - The company continues to generate strong free cash flow from its beer business but faces challenges due to significant debt impacting equity value [4].

Core Insights - Warren Buffett has achieved an average annual return of around 20% for Berkshire Hathaway over the past 60 years, significantly outperforming the stock market's average return of close to 10% [1] Company Summaries Sirius XM Holdings - Sirius XM Holdings is a major audio entertainment provider with approximately 160 million monthly listeners, offering services primarily via satellite [4] - The company has a current dividend yield of 4.6%, but its stock has declined by nearly 24% annually over the past three years, despite a 5.7% increase year-to-date as of mid-September [5] - Recent financial performance has shown slowed revenue and membership growth, resulting in a net loss, although the loss was smaller than expected [5] - Berkshire Hathaway and its investment managers own nearly 37% of Sirius XM, indicating confidence in the company's potential [6] - Sirius XM's forward-looking price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 7.6, significantly lower than its five-year average of 13.1, suggesting a potentially attractive valuation [6] Constellation Brands - Constellation Brands is another holding of Berkshire Hathaway, with the company owning 7.4% after acquiring over 1 million shares in the last quarter [7] - The company produces and sells alcoholic beverages, including well-known brands like Corona and Modelo, primarily in the U.S., Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy [9] - Constellation Brands offers a dividend yield of 3%, and when factoring in recent share buybacks, the total shareholder return rate is closer to 8% [9]

Company Overview - Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) is a leading beverage alcohol company with a market cap of $25.8 billion, known for brands like Corona, Modelo, Robert Mondavi, and Svedka Vodka [1] - The company is classified as a large-cap stock, emphasizing its size and influence in the beverages - brewers industry [2] Financial Performance - STZ's revenue for Q1 2026 declined by 5.5% year-over-year to $2.5 billion, missing consensus estimates by 1.9% [5] - Adjusted EPS for the same quarter was $3.22, down 9.8% from the prior year and 3.6% below Wall Street estimates [5] Stock Performance - STZ shares have decreased 44% from their 52-week high of $261.06, reached on September 30, 2024 [3] - Over the past three months, STZ shares declined by 14.5%, underperforming the First Trust Nasdaq Food & Beverage ETF (FTXG), which saw a 1.3% loss [3] - In the last 52 weeks, STZ has fallen 41.7%, significantly lagging behind FTXG's 13.9% decline [4] - Year-to-date, STZ shares are down 33.8%, compared to FTXG's 3.6% drop [4] Market Trends - STZ has been trading below its 200-day moving average since early October 2024 and below its 50-day moving average since late May, indicating a bearish trend [4] - The company has underperformed its rival, Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (BUD), which declined by 5.4% over the past 52 weeks but gained 18.7% year-to-date [6]

Core Viewpoint - Constellation Brands has lowered its full-year sales and profit outlook due to declining demand from Hispanic consumers, who represent a significant portion of its business [1][2]. Sales and Profit Outlook - The company now expects net sales of beer to decline between 2% and 4% in its fiscal 2026, a shift from a previous forecast of up to a 3% increase [7][9]. - Adjusted earnings per share are now projected to be between $11.30 and $11.60, down from an earlier forecast of $12.60 to $12.90 [7]. Consumer Behavior - Constellation's President and CEO Bill Newlands noted that U.S. purchases of high-end beers have decreased, with consumers making fewer trips to buy beer and spending less per trip [1][6]. - The trend of reduced spending is particularly pronounced among Hispanic consumers, who account for about half of Constellation's business [2][6]. Market Context - The company has been licensed to sell Modelo and Corona in the U.S. since 2013, following AB InBev's acquisition of Grupo Modelo [3]. - Concerns among Hispanic consumers include rising prices for food and essentials, immigration issues, and job market stability, which have contributed to reduced spending on various categories, including beer [5][6]. Stock Performance - Following the announcement of the revised outlook, Constellation's shares fell more than 7% in afternoon trading [8].

Group 1: Market Trends - The consumer staples sector has seen a rotation into defensive sectors, with consumer staples (0.71%), real estate (1.16%), and healthcare (3.16%) leading the market in the past week [1] - Inflows into defensive sectors may indicate the strength of the current market rally, suggesting it spans all sectors [2] Group 2: Constellation Brands Overview - Constellation Brands, a global alcoholic beverage producer, has seen significant investment from Berkshire Hathaway, which increased its stake to 13.4 million shares valued at $2.210 billion [3][7] - The global alcoholic beverage industry was valued at $1.762 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $3.015 trillion by 2030, with a CAGR of 9.7% [5] Group 3: Financial Performance - Constellation Brands reported a consolidated net income of $523.8 million for FY 2026 Q1, a significant improvement from a loss of $370.6 million in Q4 2025 [11] - The company's free cash flow increased from $879.7 million in FY 2018 to $1.973 billion in FY 2025, representing a growth of 124.28% [11] Group 4: Stock Performance and Valuation - Constellation Brands' stock is currently trading at a forward P/E multiple of 13.00, indicating it is undervalued [12] - The stock has potential upside of 18.29% in the near term, with a 12-month price target of $213.74, nearly 30% higher than its current trading price [15]

Core Viewpoint - Constellation Brands and Altria are both considered stable blue chip stocks, but Altria has outperformed Constellation significantly over the past three years, raising questions about future investment potential [1][2]. Constellation Brands - Constellation Brands generates most of its revenue from its beer business, with popular brands like Modelo and Corona, and a smaller portion from wine and spirits [4]. - The company faces three major challenges: declining beer consumption among younger consumers, decreasing sales of lower-end wines, and increased costs due to tariffs on imported Mexican beers [5][6]. - Analysts expect Constellation's revenue to decline from $10.2 billion in 2024 to $9.9 billion in 2027, while its earnings per share (EPS) is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% [8]. - Despite a low valuation at 14 times forward earnings and a forward yield of 2.5%, the lack of near-term catalysts makes it an unappealing investment [9]. Altria - Altria primarily generates revenue from its Marlboro cigarettes and has a strong domestic focus, which protects it from tariffs and foreign-exchange issues [10][11]. - The company has been countering declining smoking rates by raising cigarette prices, cutting costs, and expanding its smokeless product portfolio through investments and acquisitions [12]. - Following a setback with its investment in Juul, Altria acquired Njoy for $2.8 billion in 2023, which is expected to boost EPS starting in 2026 [13]. - Analysts predict Altria's revenue will dip slightly from $20.4 billion in 2024 to $20.2 billion in 2027, but its EPS is expected to grow at a steady CAGR of 5% from 2025 to 2027 [14][15]. - Altria's stock is considered cheap at 12 times forward earnings, with a substantial forward yield of nearly 7%, making it a more stable investment compared to Constellation [15]. Investment Recommendation - Altria is viewed as the better investment option due to its more stable business model, larger dividend, and lower valuation multiple compared to Constellation Brands [16].

Group 1 - Berkshire Hathaway has more than doubled its stake in Constellation Brands, increasing its holdings from 5.6 million shares to approximately 12 million shares, representing a 6.6% ownership in the company [1][2][4] - The company has sold its holdings in Citigroup and Brazilian fintech lender Nu Holdings as part of its portfolio adjustments [1][2] - The quarterly disclosures do not specify whether individual trades were made by Warren Buffett, portfolio managers Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, or future CEO Greg Abel [3]