SCFI欧洲航线指数

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集运指数(欧线)观点:高位震荡,10-12反套、10-02反套持有-20250720
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-20 13:22
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping index (European Line) is expected to experience high - level fluctuations in the short term. For the main 2510 contract, the market's fundamental trading logic remains to short on rallies, but the downward trend may not be smooth. For the 2508 contract, its valuation depends on the freight rate trend in early August [1][4]. - The shipping market in August is likely to face a situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand, but the inflection point of cargo volume is not clear [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - In August, the weekly average capacity is 321,000 TEU/week, with Maersk adding 2 additional vessels. In September, there are currently 2 blank sailings and 7 pending voyages (1 less than last week). Excluding pending voyages, the weekly average capacity in September is 299,000 TEU/week, and this value currently has limited reference significance [4][49]. - Regarding static capacity, in the first half of 2025, the top ten liner companies received a certain number of new ships, with some deployed on European lines. From July - December, it is expected to receive 36 ships (558,000 TEU) of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU, and only Evergreen has a plan to receive a 24,000 TEU ship in the second half of the year [55][58]. 3.2 Demand - The cargo volume during the peak season from July - August this year is better than expected, which is related to the resilience of the European economy and some exporters shifting from the US market to Europe. It is expected that the cargo volume may remain resilient in early August, and it is necessary to observe whether the inflection point of cargo volume appears in mid - August [4]. - From the perspective of the US import, in June, the total US import container volume was 2,381,063 TEU, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%. China's exports to the US decreased by 24.9% year - on - year, while exports to Southeast Asia and India increased by 25.2% year - on - year [24]. - From the perspective of China's exports, in June, the decline in exports to the US narrowed, and exports to the EU, ASEAN, Africa, and Japan maintained resilience [26]. - From the perspective of Asia's exports to Europe, the container trade volume has shown certain fluctuations. In May, Asia's exports of containers to Europe reached 1.81 million TEU, a month - on - month increase of 10.1% and a year - on - year increase of 16.0% [30][38]. 3.3 Price - On July 18, the SCFI European Line closed at $2,079/TEU, a week - on - week decrease of $20/TEU, reflecting the price cuts of MSC and Yangming in late July. On July 14, the SCFIS index closed at 2421.94 points, a week - on - week increase of 7.3% [11]. - In late July, MSC and Yangming had small price cuts, while other liner companies' FAK remained stable. In August, ONE's offline freight rates remained unchanged, and the OA Alliance and MSC may announce price increases. The expected time for the freight rate inflection point has been postponed to mid - August [13]. 3.4 Strategy - For unilateral trading, some long positions in the 2508 contract should be liquidated for profit, and the remaining positions can be dynamically liquidated for profit based on the implementation of the announced price increase in early August. - For arbitrage, hold the 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads [4].