1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual outlooks for different agricultural products, including "oscillating weakly," "oscillating," and "oscillating strongly" [1][2][5][6][7][8][9][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including supply, demand, inventory, and price trends. It also provides short - term, medium - term, and long - term outlooks for each product and suggests corresponding investment strategies [1][5][6][7][8][9][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18]. 3. Summary by Product 3.1. Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Pay attention to the effectiveness of the lower technical support. - **Logic**: Macro environment includes the US government "shutdown," Fed rate cuts, and geopolitical factors. From the industrial side, US soybean data is suspended, Brazilian soybean planting progress is slower than last year, domestic soybean arrivals are high, and palm oil and rapeseed oil have different inventory trends. - **Outlook**: Palm oil oscillates, rapeseed oil oscillates, and soybean oil oscillates strongly [5]. 3.2. Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: The Sino - US talks did not exceed expectations, the US soybean adjusted, and the domestic soybean meal was resistant to decline. - **Logic**: Internationally, the impact of Sino - US talks is over, and attention is paid to China's soybean purchases. Domestically, short - term downstream procurement interest is average, and long - term supply is expected to be sufficient. - **Outlook**: The US soybean is undergoing technical adjustment, and attention is paid to China's purchase volume. Hold the 1 - 5 reverse spread of soybean meal and the double - buy option [6]. 3.3. Corn/Starch - **Viewpoint**: The futures price dropped again, and continue to hold short positions for observation. - **Logic**: The recent price rebound was due to low inventory of grain - using enterprises, slow harvest progress, and increased purchases by state - owned warehouses. However, there are still downward drivers in the future, such as high yields in the Northeast, low - quality grain pressure in North China, and weak demand in the sales area. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. Hold short positions and pay attention to the stop - profit rhythm. Consider long - term low - absorption and near - far month reverse spread strategies [6][7]. 3.4. Hogs - **Viewpoint**: The second - fattening sentiment weakened, and hog prices declined. - **Logic**: In the short term, second - fattening utilization increased, but the price rebound inhibited sentiment. In the medium term, hog supply will increase in Q4. In the long term, sow capacity is being reduced, and supply pressure will ease in H2 2026. - **Outlook**: Oscillate weakly. The hog industry shows a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation," and pay attention to reverse spread strategy opportunities [1][2][7]. 3.5. Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The willingness to sell increased, and rubber prices fell from high levels. - **Logic**: Macro factors no longer provided upward momentum, and the previous sharp rise increased the willingness to sell. The market is a bottom - up rebound rather than a reversal. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. There may be short - term upward space, but chasing long positions has risks [8][9]. 3.6. Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: Raw materials continued to weaken, and the futures price temporarily stabilized at a low level. - **Logic**: The BR futures price rebounded and then oscillated after hitting a new low. Due to the continuous decline of butadiene prices, there may be further downward space. - **Outlook**: There may be a bottom - up rebound, but there is a possibility of hitting new lows [10][11]. 3.7. Cotton - **Viewpoint**: Macro - level benefits have been realized, and cotton prices have returned to the fundamental trading logic. - **Logic**: After the macro - level uncertainties are resolved, the market focuses on fundamentals. New cotton supply is increasing, and the "Golden September and Silver October" season is ending. - **Outlook**: Oscillate strongly in the short term, but the upward space is limited [11][12]. 3.8. Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The expected reduction in imports supports sugar prices, but it is still bearish in the medium and long term. - **Logic**: Internationally, supply will increase in the new sugar - making season. Domestically, imports decreased in September, and the market expects a further reduction in syrup and premixed powder imports. - **Outlook**: The domestic market may rebound in the short term but is bearish in the medium and long term. Consider a rebound - short strategy [13][14]. 3.9. Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The spot market is generally weak, and pulp futures are unlikely to rise significantly. - **Logic**: Fundamental data is bearish, and the futures price increase has not effectively driven up the spot price. There are issues such as weak demand and over - supply in the pulp market. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [14][15]. 3.10. Offset Paper - **Viewpoint**: Offset paper oscillates weakly. - **Logic**: Supply pressure exists due to new production capacity, dealers have high inventory, downstream demand is weak, and the cost support from wood pulp is limited. - **Outlook**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and pay attention to new driving factors [16]. 3.11. Logs - **Viewpoint**: Logs will maintain low - level oscillations in the short term. - **Logic**: Futures prices are weak due to concentrated port arrivals, low sales of integrated timber, and high blue - stain wood pressure in the future. - **Outlook**: Oscillate weakly. Speculative investors can wait and see or try to buy at low prices when it falls below 780 [17][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillation [6] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillation [6] - **Corn/Starch**: Weak oscillation [7] - **Live Pigs**: Oscillation [8] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillation [9] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillation [12] - **Cotton**: Oscillation with a slight upward trend [13] - **Sugar**: Weak oscillation [15] - **Pulp**: Oscillation [16] - **Logs**: Weak oscillation [16] 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply of live pigs is expected to increase in the second half of 2025, and the pig price is under pressure. However, the "anti - involution" policy may lead to a turnaround in the pig cycle in 2026 [1][8]. - Oils and fats may continue to oscillate and adjust in the short term, but have a high probability of running strongly in the medium term [6]. - Protein meal is expected to continue to oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to the support at the lower edge [6]. - The market sentiment for corn should not be overly pessimistic. Traders are pre - arranging to stock up, and there are opportunities for short - term profit - taking and long - term low - buying [7][8]. - The upward driving force of rubber prices is limited, but the downside support is strong, and the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [9][11]. - Synthetic rubber follows the oscillation of natural rubber, and the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [12]. - Cotton prices are expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger from now to early October, with the key to upward breakthrough being the purchase price. After the large - scale listing of new cotton, prices may be under pressure [13]. - Sugar prices are under increasing supply pressure and are expected to run weakly [15]. - The core driving force of pulp futures is difficult to determine, and the trend is expected to be oscillating [16]. - The log market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectations, and the short - term trend is expected to be weakly oscillating [16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Live Pigs - **Supply**: In the short term, the planned slaughter volume in September is expected to increase. In the medium term, the supply of commercial pigs in the second half of the year is expected to increase. In the long term, the "anti - involution" policy aims to eliminate excess capacity, but there are resistance to active production cuts [1][8]. - **Demand**: The temperature is getting cooler, the price difference between fat and lean pigs is expanding, and the price ratio of meat to pigs is stable [1][8]. - **Inventory**: The average slaughter weight decreased slightly this week, and the weight inventory is higher than the same period last year, with the main goal of destocking before the National Day [1][8]. - **Outlook**: Before the National Day, the spot and near - month pig prices are expected to remain weak. The far - month contract prices are supported by the expectation of supply - side capacity reduction, presenting a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation" [2][8]. 3.2 Oils and Fats - **Macro Environment**: The market focuses on the Fed's September monetary policy expectations, and the US dollar is oscillating weakly. Attention should be paid to geopolitical situations and US crude oil supply and demand [6]. - **Industrial End**: The drought - affected area of US soybeans is expanding, and the export demand of US soybeans is affected by Sino - US trade relations. The inventory of domestic soybeans and rapeseed has different trends, and attention should be paid to trade negotiations and policies [6]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, oils and fats may continue to oscillate and adjust. In the medium term, they are more likely to run strongly [6]. 3.3 Protein Meal - **International Situation**: The excellent rate of US soybeans is high, and attention should be paid to weather changes. The discount of Brazilian soybeans has been adjusted, and the export of US soybeans is affected by the trade war [6]. - **Domestic Situation**: The spot price is stable, and the downstream demand is expected to improve. There is no supply gap before December, and attention should be paid to trade relations and national reserve auctions [6]. - **Outlook**: The internal - external price difference may be repaired, and it is expected to oscillate within a range [6]. 3.4 Corn/Starch - **Supply**: The inventory of old - crop corn is decreasing, and new - crop corn is about to be listed. There are doubts about whether there will be a supply gap during the transition period [7][8]. - **Demand**: The downstream inventory is seasonally low, and the procurement intention of large feed enterprises is low, but small enterprises in South China are replenishing stocks [8]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, short - term short positions are recommended to take profits, and opportunities to short on rebounds can be waited for. In the long term, there is a low - buying opportunity [7][8]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Market Information**: The prices of various rubber products and raw materials have different changes, and the global natural rubber production and consumption have different trends [9]. - **Logic**: The upward driving force of rubber prices is limited, but the downside support is strong. There are many speculative themes, and the short - term supply may decrease while the demand is rigid [9][11]. - **Outlook**: The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [11]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Market Information**: The prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene have different trends [12]. - **Logic**: The synthetic rubber market follows the natural rubber market, and the short - term tightness of raw material butadiene provides cost support [12]. - **Outlook**: The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [12]. 3.7 Cotton - **Supply**: The commercial inventory of cotton is at a low level in the same period, and the supply pattern is tight before the new cotton is listed [13]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand is gradually picking up, and the orders are increasing [13]. - **Purchase**: The expected purchase price of seed cotton by ginners may increase, but the expected large increase in new cotton production will suppress the increase [13]. - **Outlook**: From now to early October, it is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger, and the key to upward breakthrough is the purchase price. After the large - scale listing of new cotton, prices may be under pressure [13]. 3.8 Sugar - **International Market**: In the new crushing season, the sugar production in Brazil, Thailand, and India is expected to increase [15]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic sugar is in the pure sales period, and the import volume is increasing [15]. - **Outlook**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the sugar price is expected to run weakly [15]. 3.9 Pulp - **Market Situation**: The pulp futures have been weak, and the main reason for the decline is the low market acceptance of Brilliant Needle pulp [16]. - **Outlook**: The internal contradictions of the pulp market are divided, and the trend is expected to be oscillating [16]. 3.10 Logs - **Market Situation**: The log market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectations, with some positive factors such as cost support and reduced supply pressure [16]. - **Outlook**: The short - term trend is expected to be weakly oscillating [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping index showed a strong and volatile trend yesterday. The main 2510 contract closed at 1583.9 points, up 3.73%, with an increase of 455 lots; the second main 2512 contract closed at 1779.9 points, with an increase of 295 lots; the near - month 2508 contract closed at 2249.9 points, up 10 points, with a decrease of 1355 lots [9]. - In terms of spot freight rates, Evergreen and MSC plan to increase rates by $200/FEU in early August, while MSK will decrease rates by $100 - 200/FEU, and the PA Alliance's average quoted price will decrease by $200/FEU. Overall, freight rates in early August show signs of peaking, with the average static quoted price in week 32 around $3360/FEU [10]. - Fundamentally, the average weekly shipping capacity in August is 321,000 TEU/week. The number of undetermined voyages in September has decreased from 7 to 5. Without considering undetermined voyages, the average weekly shipping capacity in September has been revised up from 299,000 to 306,000 TEU/week. It is expected that the cargo volume in early August may remain resilient, and Christmas orders may be gradually shipped out in early August. There is a certain probability that the inflection point of market cargo volume will appear in mid - to - late August. The fundamental trading logic remains to go short on rallies. In the short term, capital - level games are the core driver. The EC2512 and far - month contracts have relatively low positions and relatively large increases. It is expected that the 2510 contract may rise first and then fall; strategies include holding the 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions of Container Shipping Index Futures | Contract | Closing Price | Daily Increase | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2508 | 2,249.9 | 1.47% | - 1,355 | | EC2510 | 1,583.9 | 3.73% | + 455 | | EC2512 | 1,779.9 | 5.45% | + 295 | [1] 3.2 Freight Rate Index | Freight Rate Index | Current Value | Unit | Weekly Increase | Bi - weekly Increase | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFIS: European Route | 2,400.50 | points | - 0.9% | - | | SCFIS: US West Route | 1,301.81 | points | 2.8% | - | | SCFI: European Route | 2,079 | $/TEU | - | - 1.0% | | SCFI: US West Route | 2,142 | $/FEU | - | - 2.4% | [1] 3.3 Spot Freight Rates - In early August, Evergreen and MSC plan to increase rates by $200/FEU, MSK will decrease rates by $100 - 200/FEU, and the PA Alliance's average quoted price will decrease by $200/FEU. The average static quoted price in week 32 is around $3360/FEU [10]. 3.4 Shipping Capacity - The average weekly shipping capacity in August is 321,000 TEU/week. The number of undetermined voyages in September has decreased from 7 to 5. Without considering undetermined voyages, the average weekly shipping capacity in September has been revised up from 299,000 to 306,000 TEU/week [11]. 3.5 Macro News - Xi Jinping met with European Council President Costa and European Commission President von der Leyen [8]. - The US withdrew from the Doha cease - fire negotiations between Israel and Hamas [8]. - The European Central Bank kept its three key interest rates unchanged, warning of a highly uncertain external environment, and President Lagarde did not rule out the possibility of future interest rate hikes [8]. - The EU passed a €93 billion counter - tariff plan against the US, which will take effect on August 7 if no agreement is reached [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping index (European Line) is expected to experience high - level fluctuations in the short term. For the main 2510 contract, the market's fundamental trading logic remains to short on rallies, but the downward trend may not be smooth. For the 2508 contract, its valuation depends on the freight rate trend in early August [1][4]. - The shipping market in August is likely to face a situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand, but the inflection point of cargo volume is not clear [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - In August, the weekly average capacity is 321,000 TEU/week, with Maersk adding 2 additional vessels. In September, there are currently 2 blank sailings and 7 pending voyages (1 less than last week). Excluding pending voyages, the weekly average capacity in September is 299,000 TEU/week, and this value currently has limited reference significance [4][49]. - Regarding static capacity, in the first half of 2025, the top ten liner companies received a certain number of new ships, with some deployed on European lines. From July - December, it is expected to receive 36 ships (558,000 TEU) of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU, and only Evergreen has a plan to receive a 24,000 TEU ship in the second half of the year [55][58]. 3.2 Demand - The cargo volume during the peak season from July - August this year is better than expected, which is related to the resilience of the European economy and some exporters shifting from the US market to Europe. It is expected that the cargo volume may remain resilient in early August, and it is necessary to observe whether the inflection point of cargo volume appears in mid - August [4]. - From the perspective of the US import, in June, the total US import container volume was 2,381,063 TEU, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%. China's exports to the US decreased by 24.9% year - on - year, while exports to Southeast Asia and India increased by 25.2% year - on - year [24]. - From the perspective of China's exports, in June, the decline in exports to the US narrowed, and exports to the EU, ASEAN, Africa, and Japan maintained resilience [26]. - From the perspective of Asia's exports to Europe, the container trade volume has shown certain fluctuations. In May, Asia's exports of containers to Europe reached 1.81 million TEU, a month - on - month increase of 10.1% and a year - on - year increase of 16.0% [30][38]. 3.3 Price - On July 18, the SCFI European Line closed at $2,079/TEU, a week - on - week decrease of $20/TEU, reflecting the price cuts of MSC and Yangming in late July. On July 14, the SCFIS index closed at 2421.94 points, a week - on - week increase of 7.3% [11]. - In late July, MSC and Yangming had small price cuts, while other liner companies' FAK remained stable. In August, ONE's offline freight rates remained unchanged, and the OA Alliance and MSC may announce price increases. The expected time for the freight rate inflection point has been postponed to mid - August [13]. 3.4 Strategy - For unilateral trading, some long positions in the 2508 contract should be liquidated for profit, and the remaining positions can be dynamically liquidated for profit based on the implementation of the announced price increase in early August. - For arbitrage, hold the 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report provides operation suggestions for various futures contracts across different sectors, including stock index, treasury bond, precious metal, shipping, steel, energy, chemical, agricultural products, and new energy, based on their respective market conditions and trends [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - A-share market opened lower, oscillated, and showed differentiation, with finance and consumption sectors performing better. Index futures have stable lower support but face upward breakthrough pressure, and are affected by tariff negotiations and news in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Treasury Bond - Treasury bond futures showed differentiated trends, with ultra-long bonds performing strongly. Attention should be paid to tax periods and cross - half - year liquidity. For the 10 - year bond, 1.6% is the downward resistance level. In the unilateral strategy, it is advisable to appropriately allocate long positions on dips, and in the cash - futures strategy, pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy of TS2509 [2]. Precious Metal - Gold is in a short - term range - bound oscillation, with a possibility of hitting the $3400 mark. A double - selling strategy for gold options can be used to earn time value. Attention should be paid to the flow of speculative funds in silver, and long positions should temporarily exit [2]. Shipping - The main contract of the container shipping index (European line) is oscillating. It is considered to buy on dips or focus on the 12 - 10 reverse arbitrage opportunity [2]. Steel - Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. For steel, unilateral operation should wait and see, and pay attention to the long - steel short - raw material arbitrage operation. Iron ore is in a range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to the marginal change in terminal demand [2]. Energy and Chemical - For crude oil, consider buying on dips for the main contract or focus on the 12 - 10 reverse arbitrage opportunity. For various chemical products, different operation suggestions are given according to their supply - demand and price trends, such as short - selling on rallies for some products and range - bound operation for others [2][3]. Agricultural Products - Different agricultural product futures have different trends. For example, sugar is recommended to be short - sold on rallies, and palm oil may test the 7800 support level [3]. New Energy - Polysilicon futures increased in positions and declined, and short positions should be held. Lithium carbonate futures are under pressure and are expected to run in the range of 56,000 - 62,000 [4].