Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The container shipping index (European Line) showed a strong performance yesterday. The主力2602 contract closed at 1,871.8 points, with an increase of 5,003 lots and a gain of 8.77%. The次主力2604 contract closed at 1,166.8 points, with an increase of 1,634 lots and a gain of 3.6%. The SCFIS on December 22 rose 5.2% from the previous period, basically in line with expectations. The predicted settlement price of the 2512 contract is between 1,600 - 1,625 points [11]. - For the 2602 contract, the core issues are the freight rate level, inflection - point time, and price decline rate. The settlement price of the 2602 contract is the average of the SCFIS for three consecutive Wednesdays (weeks 4, 5, and 6). The 2602 contract can theoretically be anchored to the FAK average in week 5. Different scenarios for the 2602 contract are presented based on the price trend in week 3 [13][14]. - For the 2604 contract, short - selling on rallies has a relatively higher probability of success. Its bottom valuation in the first stage can be anchored to the lowest SCFIS in 2025, which is 1,031 points. In the short term, the risk of premium should be watched out for [15]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: EC2512 closed at 1,630.1 with a daily increase of 0.21%, EC2602 at 1,719.8 with a 3.66% increase, and EC2604 at 1,128.8 with a 1.66% increase. The spread between EC2512 and EC2604 is 501.3, and between EC2602 and EC2604 is 591.0 [1]. - **Freight Rate Index**: The SCFIS for the European route was 1,589.20 points, up 5.2% week - on - week; for the US West route, it was 962.10 points, up 4.1% week - on - week. The SCFI for the European route was $1,533/TEU, with a bi - weekly decline of 0.3%, and for the US West route was $1,992/FEU, up 11.9% bi - weekly [1]. - **Spot European Freight Rates**: Different carriers have different freight rates for 40'GP and 20'GP from Shanghai to Rotterdam. For example, Maersk's 40'GP is $2,530 and 20'GP is $1,575 [1]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 98.26, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.03 [1]. 2. Macro News - Maersk's Sebarok completed crossing the Mandeb Strait and entered the Red Sea on the early morning of December 19, the first Maersk ship to pass through the strait in nearly two years. It is a 6,500 - TEU ship operating on the MECL route (India - US) [8][12]. - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will discuss Iran's nuclear activities and the next phase of the Gaza plan with US President Trump during his visit next week. Israel is also trying to prevent the Houthi rebels in Yemen from blocking international shipping routes [8]. - Iranian state media reported that multiple cities in Iran held missile exercises [10]. 3. Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: In January, the weekly average capacity remains at 318,000 TEU/week, with the number of pending voyages reduced to 1. Compared with last Sunday's schedule, the capacity in weeks 1 and 3 remains unchanged. The capacity in week 2 is revised down from 332,000 to 318,000 TEU due to additional passive blank sailings on AEU7, and the capacity in week 4 is revised up from 315,000 to 329,000 TEU, becoming the week with the greatest supply pressure [12]. - **Demand Side**: Major shipping companies started the practice of cargo rolling in late December, especially the PA Alliance, which laid the foundation for the price increase in early January. Weekly bookings were slow in the first week of January, possibly related to ongoing long - term contract negotiations. The peak cargo volume may occur around mid - January (week 3) and then decline [13]. 4. Price Forecast - **2512 Contract**: The settlement price is expected to be between 1,600 - 1,625 points [11]. - **2602 Contract**: - Neutral Scenario: The FAK average in week 3 is around $2,800/FEU, similar to week 2. The combined decline in weeks 4 and 5 is $300 - $400/FEU. The corresponding SCFIS for the 2602 contract is 1,720 - 1,800 points, and the settlement price may be pushed up to 1,800 - 1,900 points due to ship - schedule delays and cargo rolling [14]. - Optimistic Scenario: There is a final price increase in week 3, but the increase is less than $400/FEU. The 2602 contract will have an additional premium of 100 - 300 points on top of the neutral scenario, with a valuation between 1,900 - 2,200 points [14]. - Pessimistic Scenario: The price starts to decline in week 3, with a combined decline of $500 - $600/FEU in weeks 3, 4, and 5. The corresponding SCFIS for the 2602 contract is 1,580 - 1,650 points, and the settlement price may be pushed up to 1,650 - 1,750 points due to ship - schedule delays and cargo rolling [14]. 5. Strategy Suggestions - For the 2602 contract, as its valuation has been significantly repaired, it is recommended to wait and see for now and make dynamic evaluations based on Maersk's opening price [15]. - For the 2604 contract, short - selling on rallies has a relatively higher probability of success. Its bottom valuation in the first stage can be anchored to the lowest SCFIS in 2025, which is 1,031 points. In the short term, it is recommended to short - sell based on the 2602 contract's valuation [15]. 6. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of the container shipping index (European Line) is 0, indicating a neutral trend [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) is rated as neutral, with a value of 0 [12]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Container Shipping Index (European Line) opened lower and moved higher yesterday. The SCFIS index being lower than market expectations and the information of the 46th - week quotation readjustment put pressure on the morning session, while the market pulled up during the afternoon session when Maersk opened bookings [9]. - For the 2512 contract, it is advisable to wait and see for the moment. It is valued around 1900 points (roughly corresponding to $2600/FEU), factoring in the expected implementation of three rounds of price increases [11]. - The 2602 contract has a stronger speculative nature, involving speculations on the late - coming Spring Festival, the possibility of resuming voyages, and the height of December freight rates [12]. - For the 2604 contract, it is recommended to short at high levels on a quarterly basis [12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures - EC2512 closed at 1909.9, up 3.82%, with a trading volume of 29,673 and an open interest of 30,915, an increase of 1595 in open interest [1]. - EC2602 closed at 1593.7, up 0.73%, with a trading volume of 5,808 and an open interest of 19,690, an increase of 909 in open interest [1]. - EC2604 closed at 1190.0, up 0.87%, with a trading volume of 1,899 and an open interest of 14,356, a decrease of 151 in open interest [1]. 3.1.2 Freight Rates - The SCFIS European route index was 1208.71, down 7.9% week - on - week; the SCFIS US - West route index was 1267.15, up 14.4% week - on - week [1]. - The SCFI European route index was $1344/TEU, up 7.9% bi - weekly; the SCFI US - West route index was $2647/FEU, up 22.9% bi - weekly [1]. 3.1.3 Spot Freight Rates - In the 46th week, the lowest market price quote came from the PA Alliance, with FAK readjusted to $1700 - 1800/FEU and the lowest SPOT quote at $1500/FEU. The Gemini Alliance's online quotes ranged from $1900 - 2300/FEU, with HPL reducing its quote by $200 to $1900/FEU. The OA Alliance had the highest quotes but they were also being adjusted downwards. MSC's face - value remained at $2265/FEU, with an offline SPOT of $1840/FEU [10]. 3.2 Macro News - The White House stated that the trade teams are still having serious consultations regarding US - India relations, and Trump and Indian Prime Minister Modi often communicate [8]. - The US government shutdown deadlock continues, and the record of 35 days is about to be broken as the US Senate failed to pass the federal government's temporary appropriation bill on November 4th [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided text does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The container shipping index (European Line) showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend yesterday. For the 2510 contract, there are potential upside risks, and it is advisable to consider shorting opportunities at 1200 - 1250 points. For the 2512 contract, it should not be over - estimated, and it is recommended to wait for further guidance from the November sailing suspension intensity. For the 2602 contract, the relative valuation between the 12 and 02 contracts is unclear. In the long - term, pay attention to the opportunities of 02 - 04 and 12 - 04 positive spreads [9][12][13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The EC2510 contract closed at 1114.4 points, up 2.67%; the EC2512 contract closed at 1696.5 points, up 4.56%; the EC2602 contract closed at 1588.1 points, up 3.33%. The trading volume to open interest ratios of EC2510, EC2512, and EC2604 were 1.14, 1.16, and 0.57 respectively [1]. - **Freight Index**: The SCFIS European route index was 1254.92 points, down 12.9% week - on - week; the SCFIS US West route index was 1193.64 points, down 11.6% week - on - week. The SCFI European route index was $1052/TEU, down 8.8% bi - weekly; the SCFI US West route index was $1636/FEU, down 31.0% bi - weekly [1]. - **Spot Freight Rates**: The central price of the 40 - 41 week list price dropped to around $1450/FEU, equivalent to about 1015 points on the SCFIS index. Different alliances have different price adjustments, such as the Gemini Alliance's Maersk raising the price in the 42nd week, while some other companies' prices are stable or decreasing [10]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 97.23, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.11 [1]. 3.2 Capacity Situation - **October**: The AEU3 route of COSCO will be changed from normal operation to a blank voyage in October, and HPL cancelled its additional ship at the beginning of October. The average weekly capacity in October was revised down to 265,000 TEU/week, with a year - on - year growth rate of 0.5%, a significant decline compared with July - September. The blank voyages are mainly concentrated in the second week of October [11]. - **November**: The HMM Alliance announced a blank voyage plan for the PA Alliance, and MSC will launch 3 new ships. The number of undetermined voyages in November (weeks 44 - 48) has been reduced to 2, with 5 blank voyages and 1 additional ship. Excluding undetermined voyages, the average weekly capacity is currently 310,000 TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 10% and a month - on - month increase of 16% [11]. 3.3 Contract Analysis - **2510 Contract**: The delivery settlement price sample of the 2510 contract comes from the containers departing in weeks 41 - 43. If Maersk's price increase is implemented and other shipping companies follow suit, the SCFIS average in weeks 41 - 43 may be around 1215 points (±30 points), but considering ship delays, it is likely to be within 1200 points. If the price increase is not implemented, the delivery price of the 2510 contract is likely to be within 1100 points [12]. - **2512 Contract**: There are two negative factors in December this year compared with last year. The 2512 contract may rise in the short - term due to price - increase sentiment, and it is recommended to wait for further guidance from the November sailing suspension intensity [13]. - **2602 Contract**: Since the Spring Festival in 2026 is half a month later than in 2025, it is difficult to determine the relative valuation between the 12 and 02 contracts [13]. 3.4 Strategy Suggestion - Short - term: Pay attention to the opportunity of shorting the 2510 contract at 1200 - 1250 points. - Long - term: Pay attention to the opportunities of widening the 02 - 04 and 12 - 04 positive spreads at low levels [13].