2025 年 12 月 23 日 集运指数（欧线）：近月关注开舱指引，远月关注 加沙和谈进展 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | EC2512 1,630.1 | 0.21% 186 | | | 1,983 | -160 | 0.09 | | 0.06 | | | EC2602 1,719.8 | 3.66% 31,624 | | | 31,507 | -136 | 1.00 | | 0.85 | | | EC2604 1,128.8 | 1.66% 4,225 | | | 18,837 | 145 | 0.22 | | 0.20 | | | EC2512 - E ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) is rated as neutral, with a value of 0 [12]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Container Shipping Index (European Line) opened lower and moved higher yesterday. The SCFIS index being lower than market expectations and the information of the 46th - week quotation readjustment put pressure on the morning session, while the market pulled up during the afternoon session when Maersk opened bookings [9]. - For the 2512 contract, it is advisable to wait and see for the moment. It is valued around 1900 points (roughly corresponding to $2600/FEU), factoring in the expected implementation of three rounds of price increases [11]. - The 2602 contract has a stronger speculative nature, involving speculations on the late - coming Spring Festival, the possibility of resuming voyages, and the height of December freight rates [12]. - For the 2604 contract, it is recommended to short at high levels on a quarterly basis [12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures - EC2512 closed at 1909.9, up 3.82%, with a trading volume of 29,673 and an open interest of 30,915, an increase of 1595 in open interest [1]. - EC2602 closed at 1593.7, up 0.73%, with a trading volume of 5,808 and an open interest of 19,690, an increase of 909 in open interest [1]. - EC2604 closed at 1190.0, up 0.87%, with a trading volume of 1,899 and an open interest of 14,356, a decrease of 151 in open interest [1]. 3.1.2 Freight Rates - The SCFIS European route index was 1208.71, down 7.9% week - on - week; the SCFIS US - West route index was 1267.15, up 14.4% week - on - week [1]. - The SCFI European route index was $1344/TEU, up 7.9% bi - weekly; the SCFI US - West route index was $2647/FEU, up 22.9% bi - weekly [1]. 3.1.3 Spot Freight Rates - In the 46th week, the lowest market price quote came from the PA Alliance, with FAK readjusted to $1700 - 1800/FEU and the lowest SPOT quote at $1500/FEU. The Gemini Alliance's online quotes ranged from $1900 - 2300/FEU, with HPL reducing its quote by $200 to $1900/FEU. The OA Alliance had the highest quotes but they were also being adjusted downwards. MSC's face - value remained at $2265/FEU, with an offline SPOT of $1840/FEU [10]. 3.2 Macro News - The White House stated that the trade teams are still having serious consultations regarding US - India relations, and Trump and Indian Prime Minister Modi often communicate [8]. - The US government shutdown deadlock continues, and the record of 35 days is about to be broken as the US Senate failed to pass the federal government's temporary appropriation bill on November 4th [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided text does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The container shipping index (European Line) showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend yesterday. For the 2510 contract, there are potential upside risks, and it is advisable to consider shorting opportunities at 1200 - 1250 points. For the 2512 contract, it should not be over - estimated, and it is recommended to wait for further guidance from the November sailing suspension intensity. For the 2602 contract, the relative valuation between the 12 and 02 contracts is unclear. In the long - term, pay attention to the opportunities of 02 - 04 and 12 - 04 positive spreads [9][12][13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The EC2510 contract closed at 1114.4 points, up 2.67%; the EC2512 contract closed at 1696.5 points, up 4.56%; the EC2602 contract closed at 1588.1 points, up 3.33%. The trading volume to open interest ratios of EC2510, EC2512, and EC2604 were 1.14, 1.16, and 0.57 respectively [1]. - **Freight Index**: The SCFIS European route index was 1254.92 points, down 12.9% week - on - week; the SCFIS US West route index was 1193.64 points, down 11.6% week - on - week. The SCFI European route index was $1052/TEU, down 8.8% bi - weekly; the SCFI US West route index was $1636/FEU, down 31.0% bi - weekly [1]. - **Spot Freight Rates**: The central price of the 40 - 41 week list price dropped to around $1450/FEU, equivalent to about 1015 points on the SCFIS index. Different alliances have different price adjustments, such as the Gemini Alliance's Maersk raising the price in the 42nd week, while some other companies' prices are stable or decreasing [10]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 97.23, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.11 [1]. 3.2 Capacity Situation - **October**: The AEU3 route of COSCO will be changed from normal operation to a blank voyage in October, and HPL cancelled its additional ship at the beginning of October. The average weekly capacity in October was revised down to 265,000 TEU/week, with a year - on - year growth rate of 0.5%, a significant decline compared with July - September. The blank voyages are mainly concentrated in the second week of October [11]. - **November**: The HMM Alliance announced a blank voyage plan for the PA Alliance, and MSC will launch 3 new ships. The number of undetermined voyages in November (weeks 44 - 48) has been reduced to 2, with 5 blank voyages and 1 additional ship. Excluding undetermined voyages, the average weekly capacity is currently 310,000 TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 10% and a month - on - month increase of 16% [11]. 3.3 Contract Analysis - **2510 Contract**: The delivery settlement price sample of the 2510 contract comes from the containers departing in weeks 41 - 43. If Maersk's price increase is implemented and other shipping companies follow suit, the SCFIS average in weeks 41 - 43 may be around 1215 points (±30 points), but considering ship delays, it is likely to be within 1200 points. If the price increase is not implemented, the delivery price of the 2510 contract is likely to be within 1100 points [12]. - **2512 Contract**: There are two negative factors in December this year compared with last year. The 2512 contract may rise in the short - term due to price - increase sentiment, and it is recommended to wait for further guidance from the November sailing suspension intensity [13]. - **2602 Contract**: Since the Spring Festival in 2026 is half a month later than in 2025, it is difficult to determine the relative valuation between the 12 and 02 contracts [13]. 3.4 Strategy Suggestion - Short - term: Pay attention to the opportunity of shorting the 2510 contract at 1200 - 1250 points. - Long - term: Pay attention to the opportunities of widening the 02 - 04 and 12 - 04 positive spreads at low levels [13].