本期节目我们请回了一位老朋友——PingCAP CTO 东旭，聊聊他最近使用 Clawdbot 等各种热门产品的体悟和洞察。 本期播客原文约 21000 字，本文经过删减整理后约 7600 字。 曲凯 ：我们上次聊的主要是全球化（回顾： 抱着"不做就会死"的决心，才能真正做好全球化 ）。最近看你在密集使用各种 AI 产品，包括特别火的 Clawdbot，也写 了很多公众号（名称：我世界的源代码），正好借这个机会再和你聊聊。 东旭 ：太好了。我最近一直处在一个很亢奋的状态，每天都有很多想做的事。因为大概在去年 12 月底，Vibe Coding 出现了一个明显的飞跃，然后这种能力跃迁已 经开始从编程扩散到非编程场景，比如 Clawdbot 就是一个很好的例子。 曲凯 ：对。市场真的很神奇，过去几个月，大家其实都不知道下一个热点会是什么，主线也很模糊，结果突然又冒出一个这么火的东西。 但人是最大的瓶颈。 而在过去一年里，各种进步叠加之后，AI Coding 需要人类介入的比例可能已经降到了 0.1%。一旦人类这个瓶颈被移走，系统就能自己运转起来了。 曲凯 ：所以如果让你给过去一年的 AI Coding 打分，你会 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the computer industry as "Overweight," indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [9]. Core Insights - Clawdbot signifies a transition in AI product forms from "scene-level assistants" to "system-level Agent platforms," emphasizing comprehensive execution capabilities across tools and systems [3]. - The evolution of Agents is marked by a clear path from Skills to Claude Excel and Clawdbot, shifting market focus from model parameters to the ability to execute complex tasks and integrate external tools [3]. - Clawdbot's revolutionary aspect lies in its ability to understand high-level user intentions and autonomously break them down into ordered steps, enhancing automation in complex workflows [3]. - The deployment of system-level Agents faces challenges such as high complexity in enterprise deployment, data security concerns, and the need for improved stability and traceability across systems [3]. - The acceleration of Agent deployment does not imply the replacement of traditional software but rather positions Agents as intelligent interaction and automation hubs, enhancing overall efficiency [3]. Summary by Sections AI Application Key Companies Valuation - The report includes a valuation table for key AI application companies, detailing their market capitalization and projected net profits for 2024 to 2027, with notable companies such as Kingsoft Office, Yonyou Network, and Zhongkong Technology [4].

Core Concept - The emergence of "Skills" in AI represents a paradigm shift, allowing users to encapsulate specific tasks into callable modules, enhancing the functionality of large models in practical applications [1][2]. Group 1: Understanding Skills - Skills address the limitation of general AI, which can understand concepts but struggles with practical execution due to the scattered nature of operational knowledge [2][10]. - The concept originated from the AI model Claude, which introduced "Claude Skills" to enable repeatable task completion based on organizational workflows and brand standards [2][3]. - Skills can be seen as standardized modules that encapsulate multiple prompts, making it easier for users to create and utilize them without extensive programming knowledge [3][4]. Group 2: Adoption and Implementation - Major tech companies, including OpenAI, Microsoft, and Tencent, have quickly adopted the Skills framework, indicating a rapid shift in the AI landscape [4][6]. - The Skills feature was initially a niche tool but gained widespread attention and usage, with significant growth in related code repositories on platforms like GitHub [6][10]. - Users can create Skills through natural language, allowing non-programmers to develop their own modules, which has contributed to its popularity [3][10]. Group 3: Practical Applications - An example of a Skill is a "PDF processing skill," which includes instructions for recognizing fields, handling layouts, and error checking, streamlining document processing tasks [3][11]. - Skills can be iteratively improved based on user feedback, allowing for the refinement of outputs to better meet specific requirements [7][8]. - The ability to store and recall user preferences within Skills reduces the need for repetitive input, enhancing efficiency in task execution [8][10]. Group 4: Future Implications - The future of Skills may significantly impact organizational competitiveness, as the ability to convert tacit knowledge into standardized modules could become a key differentiator [10][11]. - A mechanism called "Progressive Disclosure" is designed to optimize computational efficiency by loading only necessary information when required, thus minimizing resource consumption [10][11]. - While Skills democratize access to AI capabilities, there are concerns about potential risks associated with user-generated content, highlighting the importance of creating proprietary Skills for security [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of utilizing existing open-source projects to create Skills, thereby avoiding redundant development and enhancing efficiency in various applications [2][3]. Group 1: Skills and Open-Source Integration - Skills can package scripts and prompts together, allowing for easier access to powerful open-source tools [3]. - The integration of open-source projects into Skills can significantly improve their success rate, stability, and efficiency compared to code generated on-the-fly by AI [3][4]. - The author has successfully created multiple Skills by wrapping open-source projects, demonstrating the practical application of this approach [8][12]. Group 2: Practical Applications and Examples - A notable example is the creation of a Skill for downloading videos from various platforms using the open-source project yt-dlp, which has garnered 143k stars on GitHub [10][11]. - The process involves using AI to search for relevant GitHub projects, packaging them into Skills, and iterating on them for improved performance [32]. - The article outlines a step-by-step method for creating a video downloader Skill, highlighting the efficiency of the process after initial setup [26][30]. Group 3: Broader Implications of Skills - The article suggests that the Skills framework allows ordinary users to leverage the vast knowledge and experience embedded in open-source projects, effectively transforming them into powerful tools [43]. - It posits that the current era provides unprecedented opportunities for individuals to access and utilize collective human knowledge, making advanced capabilities available to everyone [44]. - The author encourages readers to embrace this technological advancement, suggesting that it can significantly enhance their productivity and capabilities [45].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant updates in the Coze platform, particularly the introduction of version 2.0, which includes new features like Skills and Long-term Plans, making it more accessible for ordinary users to utilize AI capabilities [1][4]. Group 1: Skills Feature - The Skills feature allows users to create and utilize various skills, such as writing, designing, and video processing, with built-in options available for immediate use [6][39]. - Users can create their own skills easily, either through a simple voice command method or by uploading existing skill packages, thus lowering the barrier for entry [12][33]. - The article emphasizes the importance of skill abstraction, suggesting that any repetitive task should be transformed into a skill to enhance personal productivity [7][39]. Group 2: Long-term Plans Feature - The Long-term Plans feature enables users to set goals and receive step-by-step guidance from the AI, simplifying the execution process without the need for constant oversight [41][50]. - The article provides an example of a health plan created for 2026, showcasing how the AI can tailor a comprehensive plan based on user input and track progress over time [50][54]. - Notifications and reminders for the long-term plans are integrated into the platform, although currently limited to the web version, with expectations for mobile app support in the future [55][57].

Core Insights - Anthropic celebrates the one-year anniversary of the MCP (Multi-Channel Protocol) Registry, which has seen a 407% growth in server registrations since its launch, indicating industry acceptance of this open standard [1][3] - Despite initial excitement, the MCP has not generated significant discussion on social media, contrasting with the hype it received upon its introduction [1] - Anthropic appears to be moving away from MCP, introducing a new system called Skills that is taking over many functions previously associated with MCP [1][10] Group 1: MCP's Initial Impact - MCP was launched to address a major pain point for AI developers, who were previously required to create separate APIs for different applications, leading to inefficiencies [3][4] - The promise of MCP was to allow developers to create a single server that could be used across various AI agents, simplifying the integration process [4] Group 2: Challenges and Limitations - A significant issue with MCP is that its calling method consumes context, leading to increased token usage and potential workflow failures when handling large documents [5][6] - The accumulation of multiple MCPs can dilute the model's performance, causing it to make errors in decision-making due to overwhelmed context [7][8] - The low barrier to entry for creating MCP servers has resulted in a proliferation of low-quality and redundant servers, complicating the selection process for developers [8][9] Group 3: Shift Towards Skills - Anthropic's introduction of Skills suggests a shift away from the reliance on MCP, focusing instead on encapsulating frequently used capabilities in a more efficient manner [10][12] - Skills aim to reduce token consumption significantly, indicating a recognition of the inefficiencies inherent in the original MCP design [10][11] - The evolution of both MCP and Skills reflects an ongoing effort to address the limitations of current AI capabilities, with both serving as temporary solutions to enhance AI performance [12][13]

Core Insights - The education technology (EdTech) sector is experiencing a transformation, with companies like Chegg and Duolingo showcasing different trajectories within this shift [1][2] - Chegg is facing challenges with declining subscriptions and revenues, while Duolingo is demonstrating strong growth and profitability [7][8] Chegg Overview - Chegg's core business is under pressure, with subscriptions dropping 40% year over year to 2.6 million in Q2 2025, leading to a 36% decline in total revenues to $105 million [3][6] - The company is focusing on two emerging businesses: Busuu, which saw a 15% year-over-year revenue increase, and Skills, targeting a $40 billion market [4][6] - Chegg is undergoing a major restructuring, including a 45% workforce reduction, to improve cash flow and focus on skilling initiatives, with expected revenues of $70 million in 2025 [6][12] - Despite the challenges, Chegg's adjusted EBITDA was $23 million at a 22% margin, indicating strong cost control [3][6] Duolingo Overview - Duolingo reported a 41% revenue increase to $252.3 million in Q2 2025, with daily active users rising 40% to 47.7 million [7][8] - The company is successfully upselling users into higher subscription tiers, benefiting from AI enhancements [9][10] - Duolingo's financial guidance remains strong, with bookings growth expected to exceed 32% for the full year 2025 [11][19] - The company is expanding its total addressable market with new subjects, such as a Chess course, which has surpassed one million daily active users [10][19] Stock Performance and Valuation - Chegg's stock has risen 44.2% in the past six months due to restructuring efforts, while Duolingo shares are down 31.8% amid market pressures [12][15] - Chegg's market capitalization is approximately $113.7 million, trading at 0.32X forward sales, reflecting investor caution [15][22] - In contrast, Duolingo has a market cap of around $12.5 billion, trading at 10.09X forward sales, indicating confidence in its growth trajectory [15][22] Analyst Expectations - Analysts maintain cautious expectations for Chegg, forecasting a 36.7% revenue decline in 2025 and a projected loss per share of 11 cents [17][19] - Duolingo's estimates show a projected EPS of $3.16 for 2025, with revenue expected to climb 36.2% [19][21] - The contrasting analyst sentiment highlights the divergent paths of the two companies, with Duolingo seen as a high-visibility growth compounder [19][22] Investment Outlook - Chegg is viewed as a turnaround story with potential upside, but revenue stability remains uncertain [22][24] - Duolingo is recognized for its robust operating performance and expanding profitability, making it a more favorable long-term investment [23][24]

Core Insights - Chegg, Inc. is heavily investing in artificial intelligence to transform its business model amid significant subscriber losses, reporting Q2 2025 revenues of $105.1 million, a 36% decline year-over-year, with subscription revenue down 39% to $89.7 million and a 40% drop in subscribers to 2.6 million [1][8] Business Model and AI Integration - Management is optimistic that efficiency improvements and product innovation will stabilize the business, with AI tools like Solution Scout and AI-driven flashcard generators enhancing user engagement and satisfaction [2] - Non-GAAP expenses decreased by 33% in Q2, allowing Chegg to achieve $23.1 million in adjusted EBITDA despite revenue challenges [2] Growth Segments - Busuu and Skills are identified as growth segments, with Busuu's language-learning platform experiencing a 15% revenue increase, driven by a 39% rise in its B2B business, while Skills saw a 16% quarter-over-quarter enrollment growth [3] Future Outlook - For Q3, management projects revenues to be between $75 million and $77 million, indicating ongoing traffic challenges, raising questions about AI's potential to drive sustainable growth in a competitive edtech environment [4] Competitive Landscape - Chegg faces increasing competition from companies like Coursera and Duolingo, with Coursera focusing on AI-driven personalization and enterprise partnerships, and Duolingo expanding its offerings in language learning and other subjects [5] Stock Performance and Valuation - Chegg's stock has increased by 41.3% over the past three months, outperforming the Zacks Internet - Software industry [6] - The stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 0.42, indicating a discount compared to industry peers [10] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Chegg's 2025 loss per share has improved to 11 cents from 40 cents over the past month, with a projected 33.8% decline in sales for 2025 [12]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q2 2025, the company reported total revenue of $105 million, a decrease of 36% year over year [20] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $23 million, representing a margin of 22% [21] - The company had 2.6 million subscribers during the quarter, reflecting a year over year decline of 40% [20] - Non-GAAP operating expenses were $64 million, a reduction of approximately $31 million or 33% year over year [20] - Free cash flow for the second quarter was negative $12 million, impacted by severance payments and annual prepayment for hosting expenses [21] - The company concluded the quarter with cash and investments of $114.1 million and a net cash balance of $52 million [22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The skills and other revenue segment generated $15 million in Q2, including approximately $7 million from content licensing [20] - Busuu, the language learning business, achieved a 15% year over year revenue increase in Q2, with B2C revenue increasing by 6% year over year and B2B revenue growing by 39% year over year [10][11] - The skills business saw a 16% increase in enrollments quarter over quarter and an 11% increase in monthly active users [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The language learning market has a significant opportunity, with 78 million success-seeking learners and a $3.2 billion market potential [10] - The skills market is valued at $40 billion, focusing on workplace readiness and upskilling for professional adults [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is undergoing a strategic review process, exploring options including acquisition, going private, or remaining public [6][7] - The focus is shifting towards skills and Busuu as primary growth engines, with investments in language learning and workplace readiness [8][12] - Chegg Study will continue to serve as a valuable service while generating cash to support investments in Busuu and Skills [8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the potential for the skills business and its path to profitability and double-digit growth in 2026 [14] - The company is adapting to evolving consumer expectations and market turbulence, particularly in the Busuu and Skills segments [22] - Management highlighted the importance of proving value in the institutional market to drive significant revenue growth in 2026 and beyond [30] Other Important Information - The company is on track to achieve non-GAAP expense savings of $165 million to $175 million in 2025 and $100 million to $110 million in 2026 [19] - The company has successfully cured its stock price deficiency and regained compliance with NYSE's price listing requirements [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Regarding Busuu's growth in the B2B segment - Management indicated that growth is driven by both direct sales efforts and strong relationships with partners like Guild, emphasizing their ability to control their growth trajectory [24][26] Question: On Chegg Study's institutional pilots - Management noted the importance of proving value to schools and plans to continue adding partners while focusing on performance metrics to drive predictable growth [28][30] Question: About the B2C performance of Busuu - Management attributed steady performance to targeting the right consumer persona and enhancing product features with AI to improve engagement [35][36] Question: Positioning of the skills business in the AI education market - Management expressed optimism about the skills business, highlighting a transition to micro-learning formats that align with current market demands [39][41]