RT vitrupo (@vitrupo)Elon Musk says he's now racing to build the thing he once feared.He tried to slow AI down, then realized there were only two choices: watch or participate.If ASI is inevitable, he'd rather help shape one that seeks truth and finds humanity interesting enough to keep around. https://t.co/MdyPyJuoxG ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba (BABA) [2][14][26] Core Insights - Alibaba Cloud continues to accelerate growth, with a market share of 35.8%, and the company is increasing investments in AI and instant retail to drive long-term growth [11][12][14] - The company is focusing on integrating AI and cloud services into its consumer platform, enhancing strategic value and positioning for high-quality growth [14] - Financial forecasts have been adjusted, with FY26 net profit expected to be RMB 118.7 billion, down from RMB 125.5 billion, while FY27 and FY28 forecasts remain at RMB 155.3 billion and RMB 178.8 billion respectively [14] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for FY24, FY25, FY26E, FY27E, and FY28E are RMB 941.2 billion, RMB 996.3 billion, RMB 1,044.8 billion, RMB 1,162.8 billion, and RMB 1,270.3 billion respectively, with growth rates of 8.3%, 5.9%, 4.9%, 11.3%, and 9.2% [17] - Non-GAAP net profit for FY24, FY25, FY26E, FY27E, and FY28E is projected at RMB 158.4 billion, RMB 158.4 billion, RMB 118.7 billion, RMB 155.3 billion, and RMB 178.8 billion respectively, with growth rates of 10.0%, 0.0%, -25.1%, 30.8%, and 15.2% [17] - The adjusted EBITA for FY26 is expected to be RMB 110.5 billion, with a stable EBITA margin anticipated [17] Business Segment Performance - For 2QFY26, revenue is forecasted to reach RMB 252.8 billion, representing a 6.9% year-over-year increase, with a significant decline in non-GAAP net profit expected at RMB 12.8 billion, down 65% year-over-year [8][14] - The China E-commerce Group is expected to see a 23.8% year-over-year earnings growth, while the International Digital Business Group and Cloud Intelligence Group are projected to grow by 18.5% and 30.0% respectively [8][14] - The instant retail segment is anticipated to stabilize with a significant increase in order volume, although short-term losses are expected to be around RMB 35-40 billion for Taobao Flash Sale in 2QFY26 [10][14]

Core Viewpoint - Citic Securities has given Alibaba-W (09988) a "Buy" rating, projecting revenue growth rates of 3.30% and 11.11% for FY2026 and FY2027 respectively, with Non-GAAP net profits expected to be 121.73 billion yuan and 162.61 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of -23.02% and 33.58% [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - For FY2Q2026, the Chinese e-commerce group's revenue growth is expected to be approximately 11.55%, with CMR growth around 10.04%, driven by cross-selling from flash sales and improved advertising efficiency due to AI [2] - The adjusted EBITA for the e-commerce segment is projected to decline by 72.58% to 12.21 billion yuan, primarily due to investments in flash sales, which are expected to incur losses of about 35 billion yuan [2] - Excluding flash sales, the e-commerce business's EBITA is expected to show positive year-on-year growth [2] Group 2: Cloud Intelligence Group - The Cloud Intelligence Group is anticipated to see a revenue growth rate of about 30% for the quarter, with an adjusted EBITA margin of approximately 9%, remaining stable year-on-year [2] - Capital expenditures (CapEx) are expected to remain at a high level as Alibaba actively advances its 380 billion yuan AI infrastructure development [2] - By 2032, the energy consumption of Alibaba Cloud's global data centers is projected to increase tenfold compared to 2022, indicating a significant escalation in computing power investments [2]

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba demonstrates rapid advancements in AI technology and a strong strategic commitment to "All in AI" at the 2025 Yunqi Conference, solidifying its leading position in large language models and showing significant progress in multimodal models [1] - The company is optimistic about its sustained leadership in large model capabilities and the strong dual-end penetration ability under its open-source strategy, leading to an upward adjustment in revenue growth expectations for Alibaba Cloud, with a target price of HKD 205.34 and a "Buy" rating [1] Group 1 - Alibaba's CEO, Wu Yongming, highlighted two main points regarding AI development: rapid technological progress and the swift increase in global AI investment and user penetration [1] - AI technology has advanced from high school level to PhD level in less than three years, with a high certainty of achieving AGI and ASI in the future [1] - Global AI investment is projected to grow from USD 400 billion in the past year to over USD 4 trillion in the next five years, with AI chatbots seeing the fastest user penetration [1] Group 2 - Alibaba Cloud aims to become one of the few global super cloud computing platforms, with plans to significantly increase its global data center energy consumption by tenfold by 2032 [1] - The company has released three large language models and four multimodal models, maintaining a leading position in the LLM arena, with Qwen 3 max ranking third globally [2] - The new Qwen 3Next architecture shows strong technical potential, with training resources significantly lower than comparable models while achieving similar performance [2] Group 3 - The open-source strategy has led to a substantial increase in the Qwen ecosystem, with over 1 million service customers and more than 170,000 derivative models [2] - The usage of Alibaba Cloud's services has seen a 15-fold increase in the past 12 months, with the MoDa community becoming the largest open-source community in China [2] - The company’s open-source strategy is seen as a key to capturing model market share and enhancing application ecosystems, particularly in the B-end market [3] Group 4 - The company forecasts revenue for FY2026-2028 to be CNY 10084 billion, CNY 11391 billion, and CNY 12482 billion, reflecting an upward adjustment due to deeper AI strategy and model technology advancements [3] - Adjusted net profit estimates for FY2026-2028 are CNY 1412 billion, CNY 1878 billion, and CNY 2166 billion, driven by accelerated AI revenue growth [3] - The estimated market value of the company is CNY 35757 billion, corresponding to a per-share value of HKD 205.34 [3]

Core Insights - The emergence of super artificial intelligence (AGI) is increasingly seen as inevitable, with predictions that AI will surpass human intelligence across all dimensions by 2030 [3][4][5] - AI is expected to drastically reshape the job market, particularly affecting entry-level positions while benefiting experienced employees [11][13][15] Group 1: Impact on Employment - A recent Harvard study indicates that since 2023, companies utilizing generative AI have seen a significant decline in entry-level positions, averaging a 7.7% reduction, while mid to senior-level roles have remained stable [11][12] - The impact of AI is not uniform; entry-level jobs are more susceptible to AI disruption, leading to a "credential-biased technological change" where the demand for entry-level talent is redefined [10][14][16] - The trend shows that many traditional career paths starting from entry-level roles are being disrupted, potentially affecting long-term career development for newcomers [15] Group 2: AI Job Market Trends - In China, entry-level AI positions are also declining, with significant salary reductions reported in roles such as data development (-33%) and testing engineering (-27%) [19] - The global tech industry has seen substantial layoffs, with 89,964 tech employees laid off in 2025 alone, indicating a shift towards AI-driven operational models [21][23] - Major tech companies are actively restructuring their workforce to adapt to AI advancements, with layoffs often accompanied by increased investments in AI technologies [25][26] Group 3: Talent Acquisition Strategies - The demand for AI talent is surging, with a reported tenfold increase in AI job postings in 2025, and a significant rise in non-technical roles related to AI [31][32] - Companies are offering competitive salaries to attract top AI talent, with 42.66% of new graduate positions in AI offering monthly salaries between 50,000 to 80,000 yuan [33] - Major firms are implementing specialized recruitment programs to secure top-tier AI talent, reflecting a fierce competition for skilled professionals in the AI sector [34][36][40] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The competition for AI talent has intensified, with companies like Meta and Microsoft engaging in aggressive recruitment strategies, including multi-million dollar salary packages [39][41][46] - The focus has shifted from accumulating computational power to securing intellectual resources, as top talent is crucial for technological breakthroughs and market positioning [46][47]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Insights - The AI development is proposed to evolve through three stages: from General Artificial Intelligence (AGI) to Super Artificial Intelligence (ASI), with a significant investment of 380 billion yuan in AI infrastructure over three years to create a "Super AI Cloud" [2][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of open-source ecosystems and aims to establish Alibaba as a global full-stack AI service provider, with strategic initiatives to enhance AI capabilities and infrastructure [11] - Continuous monitoring of domestic AI infrastructure manufacturers' business progress and investments is recommended, with a focus on the commercialization of AI agents and related investment opportunities [11] Summary by Sections Event Description - The 2025 Cloud Habitat Conference will take place from September 24 to 26, 2025, in Hangzhou, where Alibaba's CEO outlined the AI development path and announced a 380 billion yuan investment plan [2][5] Event Commentary - The report highlights the transition from AGI to ASI, emphasizing the need for advanced model capabilities and the establishment of a global AI service ecosystem [11] - Key highlights include the launch of flagship models and the enhancement of full-stack AI infrastructure, showcasing Alibaba's commitment to becoming a leader in AI technology [11]

Group 1: Nvidia and OpenAI Investment - Nvidia announced an investment of up to $100 billion in OpenAI to support the construction and deployment of AI data centers with a capacity of at least 10 gigawatts, utilizing millions of Nvidia GPUs [1] - The first $10 billion investment will be made upon the completion of the first gigawatt data center, with subsequent investments tied to the progress of the data center construction [1] Group 2: Alibaba's AI Strategy - Alibaba Cloud announced a partnership with Nvidia in the Physical AI sector, integrating Nvidia's AI development tools for robotics and autonomous vehicles [2] - Alibaba plans to invest 380 billion yuan in cloud and AI hardware infrastructure over the next three years, with potential for additional investments [2] - Alibaba's stock surged over 9%, adding nearly 300 billion HKD to its market capitalization, reflecting renewed market confidence [2] Group 3: Moore Threads IPO - Moore Threads' IPO application was approved by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, marking it as a significant player in the GPU market [3] - The company aims to raise 8 billion yuan for the development of next-generation AI training and graphics chips [3] Group 4: DeepSeek Model Update - DeepSeek updated its model to version V3.1-Terminus, improving language consistency and the performance of its Code Agent and Search Agent [4] - This update is seen as a minor iteration, with industry anticipation for a major version update in the future [4] Group 5: Alibaba Cloud's New AI Models - Alibaba Cloud launched seven new AI models, including flagship language model Qwen3-Max and various specialized models for programming and visual understanding [6] - The company has released over 350 models in less than two years, indicating a strong commitment to AI development [6] Group 6: Meta's Talent Acquisition - Meta hired Yang Song, former head of OpenAI's strategic exploration team, to lead its new Superintelligence Lab [7] - This move is part of Meta's broader strategy to attract top AI talent from leading companies, enhancing its capabilities in AI research [7] Group 7: OpenAI's Stargate Project - OpenAI, in collaboration with Oracle and SoftBank, plans to build five AI data centers in the U.S. under the "Stargate" project, with an estimated investment of over $400 billion [8] - This project aims to support AI development infrastructure and follows Nvidia's significant investment in OpenAI [8] Group 8: Micron's Financial Performance - Micron reported a 46% year-over-year revenue increase for Q4 of fiscal year 2025, reaching $11.32 billion [9] - The company anticipates a 16% growth in data center server shipments, driven by demand for DRAM from traditional and AI servers [9] Group 9: OpenAI's Workforce Impact Prediction - OpenAI's CEO predicts that AI will take over 30-40% of jobs in the future, emphasizing the need for education that focuses on adaptability and learning skills [10][11] Group 10: Google DeepMind's New AI Models - Google DeepMind released two new AI models, Gemini Robotics 1.5 and Gemini Robotics-ER 1.5, designed for physical intelligence tasks [12] - These models utilize a "brain-body" collaboration framework to enhance task execution and decision-making capabilities [12]

Core Insights - Alibaba's CEO, Wu Yongming, asserts that AI will become the next generation operating system, with a focus on advancing towards Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) [1] - The market reacted positively to these statements, with Alibaba's stock rising over 6%, reaching its highest point since October 2021 [1] Group 1: AI Integration in Automotive Industry - Several automotive companies, including Li Auto, BYD, and NIO, have introduced AI agents into their smart cockpits, enabling features like voice-activated food ordering while driving [2] - The initial applications of these AI agents are relatively simple, focusing on navigation, food ordering, and ride-hailing, but the ultimate goal is to create a seamless "human-vehicle-life" interaction [2][3] - Li Auto's AI agent, "Li Xiang," aims to enhance its capabilities with environmental awareness and comprehensive memory, allowing for more complex interactions [2] Group 2: Technical Frameworks for AI Agents - Li Auto employs two frameworks for its AI agent: CUA (Cockpit Using Agent) and MCP/A2A (Multi-Channel Processing/Agent-to-Agent) [2][3] - CUA involves multi-modal large model understanding tasks and executing them through apps, while MCP/A2A allows the AI agent to delegate tasks to third-party agents for efficiency [3][4] - The accuracy of current AI agents in completing complex tasks is around 30%, indicating a need for improved predictive capabilities [3] Group 3: Future Developments in AI Capabilities - Li Auto's vision for its AI agent includes "full information memory," which encompasses user actions, environmental interactions, and semantic memory regarding relationships [5] - The AI agent is expected to not only remember user behaviors but also proactively assist by mimicking past actions, enhancing user experience [5] - Environmental perception is crucial for the AI agent, enabling it to recognize real-world cues and complete tasks autonomously [5][6] Group 4: Industry Perspectives on AI - Wu Yongming emphasizes that for AI to surpass human capabilities, it must continuously interact with the physical world to gather comprehensive data [6] - The advancement of autonomous driving technology is cited as an example of how AI learns from raw data to improve performance [6]

Group 1 - The core index of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Board for chips rose by 0.64%, with notable increases in stocks such as Jinghe Integrated (up 13.37%) and Huahong Semiconductor (up 5.67) [1] - The Science and Technology Innovation Chip ETF (588200) experienced a 0.48% increase, marking its fourth consecutive rise, and has accumulated a 9.88% increase over the past week [1][4] - The trading volume of the Science and Technology Innovation Chip ETF reached 2.172 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 5.76% [4] Group 2 - The Science and Technology Innovation Chip ETF saw a significant growth in scale, increasing by 3.829 billion yuan over the past week, ranking first among comparable funds [4] - The ETF's net inflow of funds was 456 million yuan, with a total of 1.758 billion yuan net inflow over the last five trading days [4] - The net value of the Science and Technology Innovation Chip ETF has increased by 124.89% over the past two years, ranking 8th out of 2331 index equity funds [4] Group 3 - Alibaba Group's CEO announced plans to invest 380 billion yuan in cloud computing and AI infrastructure over the next three years, with potential for additional investments [5] - The increase in AI computing power infrastructure investments by leading tech companies indicates a shift towards a competition focused on computing power, which may boost demand in upstream hardware industries [5] - The strategic moves of leading companies may serve as a market indicator, reinforcing expectations for long-term growth in the AI computing sector [5] Group 4 - The top ten weighted stocks in the Science and Technology Innovation Board chip index account for 62.02% of the total index, with companies like Cambricon and Huagong Information leading the list [4][7] - Investors without stock accounts can access domestic chip investment opportunities through the Science and Technology Innovation Chip ETF linked fund (017470) [7]

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba has committed to investing at least 380 billion yuan in AI infrastructure over the next three years, which has significantly boosted its market value and stock price [1][2][11]. Investment and Market Response - Alibaba's market capitalization doubled from approximately 1.5 trillion HKD at the beginning of the year to 3.32 trillion HKD, driven by strategic announcements related to AI investments [2][11]. - The announcement of the 380 billion yuan investment led to a 35% increase in Alibaba's stock price within ten trading days [2]. - Following the Q2 earnings call, where Alibaba's cloud performance exceeded expectations, the stock surged by 13.5% overnight [2]. - The recent Cloud Summit saw Alibaba's stock rise by 9.16%, adding nearly 300 billion HKD to its market value in a single trading day [11]. AI Investment Logic - The current investment logic in the capital market favors companies making substantial AI capital expenditures, as investors prefer to invest in AI rather than miss out on potential gains [4][7]. - Despite concerns about AI investment returns, the enthusiasm for AI Capex continues to drive Alibaba's market value [5][9]. AI Infrastructure and Future Goals - Alibaba's CEO, Wu Yongming, outlined a three-phase path towards achieving Artificial Superintelligence (ASI), emphasizing the need for significant infrastructure investment [10][11]. - The company plans to enhance its global data center energy consumption by tenfold by 2032 compared to 2022 levels, indicating a long-term commitment to AI infrastructure [11]. - Alibaba aims to position itself as a full-stack AI service provider, with a focus on open-source models and a robust AI cloud computing platform [10][11]. Industry Context and Competition - The AI industry is experiencing a surge in capital investment, with projections of 2.9 trillion USD in infrastructure spending from 2023 to 2028 [12]. - The Cloud Summit showcased a shift towards Alibaba's own products and models, moving away from previous focuses on external AI models like ChatGPT [14]. - The competitive landscape emphasizes the importance of unique core competencies beyond just capital expenditure, as companies seek to attract smart money [12][19].