We came across a bullish thesis on Hormel Foods Corporation on Phaetrix Investing’s Substack by Phaetrix. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on HRL. Hormel Foods Corporation's share was trading at $24.61 as of January 30th. HRL’s trailing and forward P/E were 18.00 and 15.90 respectively according to Yahoo Finance. Valentyn Volkov/Shutterstock.com Hormel Foods Corporation develops, processes, and distributes various meat, nuts, and other food products to foodservice, convenience store, ...

Industry Overview - The consumer staples sector underperformed significantly in 2025 but is expected to see a more favorable environment in 2026 due to easing sector-specific pressures and potential fiscal stimulus boosting demand [1] - The sector has a 70-percentage-point performance gap relative to tech stocks over the past three years, indicating a contrarian opportunity for long-term investors [1] - The Consumer Staples exchange-traded fund (NYSEArca: XLP) gained 7.5% in just six trading days to start 2026, marking the strongest short-term run since 2022 [1] Investment Opportunities - The S&P 500 has produced double-digit returns over the past three years, but a shift towards safer consumer staples stocks is advisable due to potential market corrections [2] - Consumer staples stocks not only offer solid upside potential but also provide significant, dependable dividends, making them attractive for conservative growth and income investors [2] Notable Companies - Altria Group Inc. (NYSE: MO) offers a compelling entry point for value investors with a 7.30% dividend yield and focuses on smoke-free products [5] - Hormel Foods Corp. (NYSE: HRL) has a reliable 5.05% dividend yield and is restructuring its portfolio to improve performance after a 25% decline in 2025 [9] - Kimberly-Clark Corp. (NYSE: KMB) has raised its dividend for 53 consecutive years, currently yielding 5.04%, and is acquiring Kenvue Inc. in a $48.7 billion deal [13][15] - PepsiCo Inc. (NYSE: PEP) reported solid earnings and has a 3.81% dividend yield, with a potential upside of over 50% due to strategic changes proposed by activist investor Elliott Investment Management [19][20] - Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG) has raised dividends for 70 straight years, with a current yield of 2.82%, focusing on branded consumer packaged goods [22][25]

Core Insights - Hormel Foods Corporation's shares rose 3% intra-day following the release of fourth-quarter earnings that met expectations and a positive fiscal 2026 outlook, which mitigated concerns over significant impairment charges [1] Financial Performance - The company reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $0.32 per share, aligning with analyst forecasts, while revenue increased by 1.5% year over year to $3.2 billion, slightly below the consensus estimate of $3.24 billion [2] - On a GAAP basis, Hormel recorded a quarterly loss of $0.10 per share, primarily due to $234 million in non-cash impairment charges related to a minority investment in its International segment and certain intangible assets in the Retail segment [2] Future Outlook - Hormel projected fiscal 2026 earnings between $1.43 and $1.51 per share, with revenue expectations of $12.2 billion to $12.5 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $1.37 per share [3] Segment Performance - Organic net sales in the fourth quarter rose by 2%, with the Foodservice segment achieving notable organic growth of 6.5% [4] - However, adjusted segment profit declined across all divisions, with the Retail segment profit decreasing by 23% despite a 1% increase in sales, indicating ongoing margin pressures in that sector [4]

Core Insights - Hormel Foods plans to eliminate 250 positions through voluntary early retirements and layoffs as part of a corporate restructuring [1] - The restructuring aims to align resources with strategic priorities, support future growth, and strengthen the overall business [2] - The company expects restructuring charges of $20 million to $25 million, primarily related to pension benefits, severance, and employee costs [3] Financial Performance - Hormel Foods reported a 4.6% increase in third-quarter net sales to $3.03 billion, with organic sales up 6% [4] - Operating income rose 1.3% to $239.7 million, while net earnings increased by 4% to $183.7 million [4] - For the fourth quarter, net sales are projected at the upper end of guidance, with adjusted earnings per share forecasted to be $0.08 to $0.09 below previous expectations [6] Future Outlook - The company anticipates strong demand across retail, foodservice, and international segments, particularly for turkey products and Planters snacks [5] - Operating income is expected to be between $982 million and $996 million, down from earlier forecasts of $1.12 billion to $1.19 billion [7]

Core Viewpoint - Hormel Foods is undergoing a restructuring process that involves cutting 250 corporate and sales jobs, which is expected to incur restructuring charges between $20 million and $25 million [1] Group 1: Company Actions - The company is reducing its workforce as part of a broader restructuring strategy [1] - Hormel Foods owns well-known brands such as Planters, Skippy, and Spam [1] Group 2: Financial Implications - The anticipated restructuring charges are estimated to be in the range of $20 million to $25 million [1]

Core Insights - Hormel Foods is planning to cut 250 corporate and sales positions as part of a corporate restructuring to align resources with strategic priorities and support future growth [1][2] - The company is focusing on areas such as technology, innovation, food safety, and quality to strengthen its overall business [2] - Hormel expects restructuring charges between $20 million and $25 million due to pension benefits, cash severance payments, stock compensation expenses, and employee benefit costs [3] Company Challenges - Hormel Foods is facing declining sales and rising costs, influenced by inflationary pressures and disruptions such as bird flu and a fire at an Arkansas peanut butter plant [4] - The company recently announced the departure of its CFO and the return of former CEO Jeff Ettinger in an interim capacity [4] Industry Context - The food and beverage industry has experienced significant job cuts in 2025 as companies adjust to slowing demand, with notable firms like Nestlé, General Mills, and Molson Coors also eliminating positions [5] - Nestlé announced plans to cut 16,000 jobs, representing about 6% of its global workforce of 277,000 [5]

Company Highlights - Nvidia's shares reached a new high, pushing its market capitalization above $5 trillion, making it the first company to achieve this milestone [2][6] - Caterpillar's shares surged to an all-time high due to strong sales of AI power-generation equipment, exceeding earnings and revenue estimates [2] - Teradyne's shares increased after the semiconductor and robotics firm reported better-than-expected results and provided an optimistic outlook driven by AI demand [3] Market Performance - Major U.S. equity indexes, including the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq, reached all-time highs ahead of an anticipated Federal Reserve decision to cut interest rates [1][6] - Fiserv's shares fell significantly after the financial tech provider missed profit and sales estimates, revised its outlook downward, and announced changes in its executive team [3][6] - Etsy's shares declined following the announcement of a leadership change, with CEO Josh Silverman set to step down [4] Commodity and Currency Trends - Oil and gold futures advanced, while the yield on the 10-year Treasury note remained relatively unchanged [5] - The U.S. dollar strengthened against the euro and pound but weakened against the yen [5] - Most major cryptocurrencies experienced a decline in prices [5]

Core Insights - Hormel Foods Corporation (NYSE:HRL) is recognized as one of the 11 Low PE High Dividend Stocks to consider for investment according to analysts [1] - The company is experiencing a growth slowdown despite a global trend towards higher protein consumption, with its stock price declining over 24% since the start of 2025 [2][3] Financial Performance - In fiscal Q3 2025, Hormel reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.35 on sales of $3.03 billion, missing analysts' expectations by $0.06 [3] - Organic sales increased by 6% year over year, while total revenue rose by 4.5%, but the company's weaker forward guidance has led to investor disappointment [3] Future Outlook - For the current quarter, Hormel expects revenue to be between $3.15 billion and $3.25 billion, compared to $3.1 billion in the same period last year [4] - Organic net sales are projected to grow by 1% to 4%, indicating a slowdown from the previous quarter's growth rate [4] Dividend Information - Hormel Foods has maintained its dividend payout for 59 consecutive years, reinforcing its status as a reliable income stock [5] - The company currently pays a quarterly dividend of $0.29 per share, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.85% as of October 14 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights three quality dividend stocks that present compelling investment opportunities, emphasizing their potential for long-term income generation and growth despite varying share prices. Group 1: Realty Income - Realty Income is a leading REIT with a current dividend yield of 5.75% and a monthly payout structure, making it attractive for dividend investors [4] - The company has a strong track record, having raised its dividend for over 30 consecutive years, demonstrating resilience through economic challenges [5] - Despite a 29% decline from its all-time high, Realty Income is trading at a valuation of 14 times its funds from operations, indicating it may be undervalued [6] Group 2: Hormel Foods - Hormel Foods is a Dividend King with a 3.8% dividend yield and a history of increasing payouts for 59 consecutive years [7] - The company has adapted to changing consumer preferences, aiming for net sales growth of 2% to 3% annually and operating profit growth of 5% to 7% [8] - Hormel's payout ratio is projected at 72% of 2025 earnings estimates, supported by an investment-grade balance sheet, with the stock trading at 19 times estimated 2025 earnings [9] Group 3: Booking Holdings - Booking Holdings, with a recent share price around $5,600, is a technology leader in the hospitality and travel sectors, having recently initiated dividend payments [10] - The company has a low payout ratio of 18% of 2025 earnings estimates, with expected earnings growth of 15% annually over the next three to five years, indicating strong dividend growth potential [11] - Despite trading near all-time highs, the stock is valued at 26 times its 2025 earnings estimates, suggesting it offers value with anticipated dividend increases and capital gains [12]

Core Viewpoint - Hormel Foods Corp reported mixed results in its second-quarter earnings for the 2025 fiscal year, leading to a 2.8% decline in stock price despite being a dividend king [1][2]. Financial Performance - Revenue for the quarter was $2.90 billion, slightly missing the expected $2.92 billion, while adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 35 cents met expectations [2]. - Year-over-year revenue showed a slight increase, with the previous year's second quarter at $2.89 billion, but EPS decreased by approximately 10% year-over-year [2]. Tariff Impact - Tariff pressures are affecting Hormel, particularly on products like Spam and pre-packaged meals that rely on imported ingredients, leading to mixed sector profits [4][5]. - The company has indicated that the worst may be behind it, maintaining full-year guidance with projected net sales between $12 billion and $12.2 billion and adjusted EPS between $1.58 and $1.68 [6]. Executive Changes - Hormel announced significant changes in its executive ranks, with Scott Aakre retiring as CMO and Jeff Baker stepping into the role of group vice president for retail marketing starting in fiscal 2026 [8][9]. Analyst Sentiment - Despite tariff concerns, analysts have been bullish on HRL stock, with upgrades from three analysts since April 15, including a notable upgrade from BNP Paribas [10]. - The stock is currently trading near 10-year lows, with a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio around 18x, which is a slight discount compared to its historical performance and the consumer staples sector [11].