受美联储官员鹰派表态影响，现货黄金与白银周五遭遇抛售潮。11月15日凌晨，现货黄金跌破4040美 元/盎司关口，最低触及4031.82美元/盎司，较24小时前创下的4210美元高位累计下跌近180美元，日内 跌幅超3%。截至上午9时，黄金报4082.16美元/盎司，日内跌幅2.13%。现货白银同步重挫逾4%，失守 51美元关口，现报50.517美元/盎司。 CME美联储观察工具显示，美联储12月维持利率不变的概率已升至54.2%，较一个月前大幅攀升。与之 对应，降息25个基点的概率从94.4%骤降至45.8%。多位美联储官员最新表态强化了政策紧缩预期，洛 根明确表示难以支持12月降息，强调需看到通胀加速回落或就业市场显著降温的明确证据。卡什卡利对 12月决策持观望态度，穆萨莱姆认为当前政策更接近中性水平，柯林斯则强调维持利率的必要性。 尽管米兰等官员主张数据支持转向鸽派，但戴利重申维持2%通胀目标的立场，并强调需等待更多经济 数据指引。市场分析指出，美联储内部对政策路径的分歧加剧，但维持利率不变的共识正在形成，这导 致贵金属市场出现剧烈波动。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market opened lower across all three major indices, indicating a bearish sentiment among investors [1] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index opened down by 0.25% - The Shenzhen Component Index opened down by 0.58% - The ChiNext Index opened down by 0.9% [1] Sector Performance - Spot gold prices fell below the $4000 mark, leading to a widespread decline in gold stocks - The coal and semiconductor sectors also opened lower [1]

Core Insights - Gold prices have rebounded by 1.2% after experiencing a significant decline of approximately 6% over the previous two sessions, indicating a shift in market sentiment from bullish enthusiasm to concerns about an overheating rally [1][2] - The recent price movements are influenced by the potential for a US-China trade deal, which could alleviate geopolitical tensions and impact demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] Market Dynamics - A notable outflow from gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) occurred, marking the largest single-day decline in holdings in five months, which coincided with the recent price slump [2] - Analysts suggest that the current behavior of gold prices resembles an elastic band that has been overstretched, indicating a technical reset rather than a fundamental shift, with safe-haven demand and the "debasement trade" remaining strong [3] Price Performance - Gold prices are currently holding firm above the $4,000 mark, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 55%, supported by expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [3] - As of 9:55 a.m. in New York, gold edged higher to $4,148.91 per ounce, while silver rose by 1.9% after a previous decline of 7.6% [4] Platinum Market Insights - The London platinum market is experiencing significant tightness, with a premium exceeding $70 per ounce over New York futures prices, and lease rates have also spiked [5] - This tightness in the platinum market is attributed to China removing a tax exemption for a state-owned entity that dominates platinum imports, with the VAT rebate ending on November 1, allowing for potential tax-free sales at a premium for imports before that date [6]

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a total holding of 1021.45 tons of gold as of October 14, 2025, reflecting an increase of 2.57 tons from the previous trading day, amidst significant fluctuations in gold prices [5]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of October 14, 2025, SPDR Gold Trust's holdings reached 1021.45 tons, up by 2.57 tons from the prior day [5]. - The increase in gold ETF holdings over the past two trading days totals more than 4 tons [5]. Group 2: Gold Price Movements - On October 14, gold prices experienced volatility, dropping to a low of $4090.49 per ounce and peaking at $4179.47 per ounce, closing at $4142.01 per ounce, a rise of $31.56 or 0.77% [5]. - Year-to-date, gold prices have surged by 57%, surpassing the $4100 per ounce mark for the first time, driven by geopolitical uncertainties, economic unpredictability, expectations of interest rate cuts, strong central bank purchases, and inflows into ETFs [5]. Group 3: Market Analysis - The sharp fluctuations in gold prices on October 14 were attributed to sudden market sentiment changes, with analysts predicting increased volatility due to profit-taking and bottom-fishing activities [6]. - Geopolitical uncertainties and ongoing trade tensions are providing strong support for gold as a safe-haven asset [6]. - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve on October 29 remain high at 96%, indicating sustained investor anticipation for accommodative monetary policy [6]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Technically, gold maintains an upward trend, with the relative strength index indicating accumulating buying momentum, and prices above all moving averages suggesting bullish sentiment [7]. - A breakthrough above $4155 could open further upside potential, targeting historical highs near $4180, with subsequent resistance levels at $4200, $4250, and $4300 [7]. - Conversely, failure to break the upper boundary of the month-long upward channel (currently at $4162 per ounce) may lead to a corrective pullback, potentially testing the lower boundary at $4015 [7].

Commodities Market - Spot Gold prices reached an all-time high of $4,125.30 per ounce, indicating increased demand for safe-haven assets amid global uncertainties [2][9]. Automotive Sector - Ford Motor Company announced production cuts for five of its truck and SUV models due to a significant aluminum-supply disruption, which may affect its output and revenue in the upcoming quarter [3][9]. Asian Markets - Japanese financial markets are expected to open lower, with Nikkei Average Futures dropping by 1.2% due to political instability and US-China trade tensions, contrasting with a 1.6% increase in the S&P 500 on Wall Street [4][5][9]. - Japan's Money Stock M2 grew by 1.6% year-over-year in September, up from 1.3% previously, while M3 increased by 1.0%, compared to 0.8% prior [4]. Technology Sector - NVIDIA introduced DGX Spark to support AI developers globally, reinforcing its commitment to the AI industry [6][9]. - Broadcom's CEO highlighted that generative AI is expected to become a significantly larger component of global GDP [6][9]. Geopolitical Developments - Former President Trump suggested that Turkish President Erdogan could help de-escalate tensions between Russia and Ukraine, following an appeal from Ukrainian President Zelensky [7][9].

🔥 JUST IN: Spot Gold has reached an all-time high of $3,650. https://t.co/1OtbwAxXlQ ...

Core Viewpoint - US gold futures reached a record high amid uncertainty regarding potential country-specific import tariffs on commonly traded gold bars, which could significantly impact global supply chains for gold [1][5]. Group 1: Market Reaction - December US gold futures increased by 1.2% to $3,494.10 per ounce after hitting a record of $3,534.10 earlier in the session [2][7]. - The spread between US gold futures and spot prices widened to $100, with spot gold dipping 0.1% to $3,394.26 per ounce but up 0.9% for the week [3]. Group 2: Implications of Tariffs - Analysts are awaiting further clarity on the potential US tariffs on gold deliveries, which could significantly affect Switzerland, the leading hub for gold refining and transit [4]. - The Swiss Precious Metals Association expressed concerns about the tariffs' implications for the gold industry and is in active discussions with stakeholders [6]. - Long-term effects of the new tariffs may benefit US refiners by transforming large 400-oz bars into retail units [6].

Group 1 - Spot gold prices increased by approximately 1% [1] - Orezone Gold's stock price rose by 10%, marking the largest single-day gain in five weeks [1] - Coeur Mining saw its stock price increase by over 5% during the trading session [1]

Market Trends - Bitcoin spot exchange traded funds have amassed approximately 76% of the total assets in the U S spot gold market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, maintains its holdings at 935.65 tons as of June 5, 2025, amidst fluctuating gold prices influenced by market sentiment and economic data [2][7]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of June 5, 2025, SPDR Gold Trust's total holdings remain unchanged at 935.65 tons of gold [2][7]. - The gold price experienced volatility, peaking above $3400 per ounce before closing at $3352.65, down $19.39 or 0.58% [7]. Group 2: Market Influences - Poor economic data from the U.S., including higher-than-expected initial jobless claims, has increased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, contributing to gold price fluctuations [7]. - Metals Focus predicts that global central banks will purchase 1000 tons of gold in 2025, marking the fourth consecutive year of significant gold buying [7]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators suggest a bullish trend for gold, with resistance levels at $3400, $3438, and $3450, while short-term support is at $3300 [9]. - The gold market shows a strong momentum, with the relative strength index (RSI) around 57, indicating a prevailing bullish sentiment [8]. Group 4: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver has shown stronger recent performance, reaching its highest level since February 2012, with a current gold-silver ratio of 94, down from 105 in April [8]. - Analysts warn of potential volatility in the silver market, predicting possible sharp movements in either direction [8].