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阿里巴巴集团(BABA):阿里巴巴集团2025财年第四季度略未达标;尽管短期利润率波动,论点不变
Ubs Securities· 2025-05-16 05:45
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group with a 12-month price target of US$178.00, slightly reduced from the previous target of US$180.00 [5][9]. Core Insights - The report indicates a mixed outlook for Alibaba Group, with revenue growth of 7% year-over-year and adjusted EBITA growth of 36% year-over-year, both slightly missing expectations by 1-2% [2][4]. - The core Taobao Tmall (TTG) business is expected to maintain a positive trajectory, with a forecasted CMR growth of 8% and EBITA growth of 5% for FY26E [3][4]. - The cloud segment is projected to grow revenue by 23% in FY26E, despite a slight decrease in EBITA margin due to increased investments and seasonality effects [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenues for FY25E are estimated at Rmb996,347 million, with a slight increase to Rmb994,026 million for FY26E [4][13]. - Adjusted EBITA is forecasted to grow from Rmb163,584 million in FY25E to Rmb178,738 million in FY26E, reflecting a margin increase from 16.4% to 18.0% [4][13]. Business Segments - **Taobao Tmall (TTG)**: Revenue growth is expected to be driven by a shift towards higher-commissioned Tmall, with CMR growth of 12% in the latest quarter [3][4]. - **Cloud Services**: Management remains optimistic about growth, with a forecast of Rmb118,028 million in revenue for FY26E, despite a decrease in EBITA margin to 7% [3][4]. - **Local Services**: Expected EBITA losses may widen due to increased competition in the food delivery market [3][4]. Valuation Metrics - The report highlights a reasonable valuation at 12x P/E, with a projected equity free cash flow yield of 2.7% for FY26E [4][9]. - The price-to-book value is estimated at 2.2x for FY25E, indicating a solid valuation relative to the market [5][9]. Market Position - Alibaba Group is positioned as a leader in the cloud and e-commerce sectors, with significant investments in AI and quick commerce expected to drive long-term growth [4][8]. - The report emphasizes the potential upside from consumer-related stimulus measures, which could further enhance Alibaba's market position [4][8].
阿里巴巴集团(BABA):买入核心商业收入前景改善
Hui Feng Yin Hang· 2025-05-16 05:45
Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for Alibaba Group with a target price of USD 176.00, indicating a potential upside of 31.3% from the current share price of USD 134.05 [5][10][49]. Core Insights - The report highlights an improved outlook on Customer Management Revenue (CMR), which accelerated to 12% growth in the March quarter, up from 9% in December, surpassing expectations [1][4]. - The forecast for FY26 CMR has been raised to 8% from 7%, reflecting confidence in continued growth as Alibaba lifts service fee exemptions for SMEs and rolls out a full-platform ad tool [1][10]. - Cloud revenue is expected to grow at 20% year-on-year in FY26, driven by robust AI demand and a commitment to AI capital expenditures [1][2]. - Despite some competitive pressures in local services, top-line estimates for FY26-28 have been increased by 1-2% [1][10]. Financial Performance - For 4QFY25, Alibaba reported revenue of RMB 236.5 billion, a 7% year-on-year increase, which aligns with consensus estimates [4][44]. - Adjusted EBITA rose 36% year-on-year to RMB 32.6 billion, exceeding internal estimates but slightly below consensus [4][44]. - The adjusted EBITA margin improved to 13.8%, up 3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to enhanced CMR growth [4][44]. Revenue Breakdown - CMR growth was a standout at 12% year-on-year, driven by online GMV growth and an improving take rate [44]. - Cloud revenue increased by 18% year-on-year, with public cloud revenue growth maintaining triple-digit year-on-year growth during 4QFY25 [44]. - The International Digital Commerce Group saw a 22% year-on-year revenue increase, supported by strong cross-border performance [44]. Shareholder Returns - Alibaba repurchased USD 0.6 billion of stock in 4QFY25, totaling USD 11.9 billion for FY25, which represents about 6.1% of the outstanding shares [44]. - A two-part dividend of USD 2.0 per ADS has been approved, consisting of a regular cash dividend of USD 1.05 and a one-time extraordinary cash dividend of USD 0.95, implying a yield of approximately 1.5% [44].