Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that three industry leaders with strong catalysts and competitive advantages could outperform current AI leaders Nvidia and Palantir over the next decade. Group 1: Nvidia and Palantir - Nvidia has gained over $3.8 trillion in market value since the start of 2023, while Palantir's stock has surged approximately 2,250% during the same period [2] - Nvidia's GPUs, particularly the Hopper and Blackwell models, dominate AI-accelerated data centers, allowing the company to charge a significant premium due to ongoing AI-GPU scarcity [4] - Palantir's platforms, Gotham and Foundry, are essential for federal governments and businesses, driving sales growth and recurring profitability [5] - Both companies may be in a bubble, as historical trends suggest that major innovations often experience bubble-bursting events [6] - Palantir's price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is nearing 121, while Nvidia's is approaching 29, significantly higher than peers [7] Group 2: Potential Competitors - Alibaba Group, with a current market cap of $276 billion, is positioned to potentially surpass Nvidia and Palantir, benefiting from its e-commerce dominance and cloud infrastructure services [10][11] - Alibaba's Taobao and Tmall platforms accounted for an estimated 41% of China's online retail market in 2024, supported by a growing middle class [11] - Alibaba Cloud captured one-third of all cloud infrastructure spending in mainland China, with generative AI solutions expected to drive double-digit sales growth [12] - PayPal Holdings, with a market cap of $71 billion, is also a strong contender, as the global fintech market is projected to grow significantly [14][15] - PayPal's total payment volume increased from $936 billion to an annual run rate of $1.67 trillion, indicating strong engagement from active accounts [16] - Intuitive Surgical, valued at $184 billion, has a stronghold in the robotic-assisted surgical market, with a growing revenue stream from high-margin instruments and services [19][21][22] - The company is expanding its surgical systems' applications, which could sustain double-digit growth for the next decade [23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Alibaba Group Holding with a revised price target of US$150, down from US$180, indicating a potential upside of 39% from the current price of US$107.99 [7][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Alibaba is facing earnings pressure due to heightened investments in instant commerce, with an estimated Rmb10 billion in investments for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, leading to a projected 16% year-over-year decline in consolidated EBITA [1][4]. - Despite the near-term earnings challenges, Alibaba is viewed as the best AI enabler in the sector, with cloud revenue expected to grow by 22% year-over-year [3][5]. Summary by Sections Earnings Forecasts - For 1QF26, total consolidated revenue is expected to increase by 2% year-over-year, while adjusted EBITA is projected to decline by 16% due to investments in food delivery and quick commerce [4][12]. - The report anticipates a significant drop in combined EBITA for the Travel and Local Services segments, with a forecasted decline of over 40% year-over-year in the second quarter [2][5]. Revenue and Profit Estimates - Revenue estimates for fiscal year 2026 have been trimmed by 4%, with adjusted EBITA forecasts reduced by 26% for FY26 and 18% for FY27 due to the impact of increased investments [5][13]. - The adjusted net profit attributable to Alibaba is expected to decrease by 23.9% for FY26, reflecting the challenges posed by the current investment strategy [13]. Valuation Methodology - The price target adjustment to US$150 is based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, with a raised weighted average cost of capital (WACC) to 11% due to increased competitive risks [14][15].

Summary of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA) - **Industry**: China Technology Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - **Revenue**: Total revenue for March quarter was RMB 236 billion, up 6.6% year-over-year, aligning with estimates [11] - **CMR Revenue**: CMR revenue reached RMB 71 billion, accelerating growth to 11.8% year-over-year [11] - **AIDC Revenue**: AIDC revenue was RMB 34 billion, up 22.3% year-over-year [11] - **Cloud Revenue**: Cloud revenue was RMB 30 billion, with growth accelerating to 17.7% year-over-year [11] - **Gross Profit**: Gross profit was RMB 91 billion, with a gross margin of 38.6%, which was 182 basis points higher than estimates [11] - **Adjusted EBITA**: Group adjusted EBITA was RMB 33 billion with a margin of 13.8%, which was 57 basis points lower than estimates [12] - **Adjusted Net Income**: Adjusted net income was RMB 30 billion, 12.6% lower than estimates [14] Segment Performance - **Taobao and Tmall Group (TTG)**: CMR growth surged to 12% year-over-year, driven by take rate expansion and GMV growth [19] - **Cloud Services**: Cloud revenue growth reached 18% year-over-year, driven by AI cloud services maintaining triple-digit growth for seven consecutive quarters [22] - **AIDC**: AIDC growth decelerated to 22% year-over-year, with a narrowed loss margin of -10.6% [25] Investment and Future Outlook - **AI Investments**: Significant investments in AI are expected to continue, with management believing these are necessary for maintaining leadership in AI [3][24] - **International AIDC Business**: Management reiterated guidance for the loss-making international AIDC business to reach break-even in the upcoming fiscal year [3] - **Shareholder Returns**: BABA returned over $16 billion to shareholders during FY25, including share repurchases and dividends [4][14] Market Position and Valuation - **Price Target**: The price target remains at $180, with a potential upside of 36.7% from the current price of $131.65 [5][62] - **Market Capitalization**: The market cap is approximately USD 314 billion [5] - **Valuation Metrics**: P/E ratio is projected at 14.5 for FY25, decreasing to 11.6 by FY27 [10] Risks and Monitoring - **Cloud Margin Trends**: Future monitoring of cloud margin trends is essential, especially regarding the impact of AI investments [4] - **Ecommerce Expansion**: Potential negative margin impacts from BABA's expansion into the Instacart ecommerce segment should be observed [4] Additional Important Information - **Share Repurchase**: In the March quarter, BABA repurchased 51 million ordinary shares worth $0.6 billion [14] - **Dividend Announcement**: A two-part dividend totaling $2 per ADS, amounting to $4.6 billion, is expected to be paid in July [14] - **Analyst Ratings**: The stock is rated as Overweight, indicating expected outperformance relative to the industry [62] This summary encapsulates the key financial metrics, segment performances, investment strategies, and market outlook for Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. as discussed in the conference call.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Alibaba, with a target price of US$157.00, reflecting a potential upside of 49.8% from the current price of US$104.78 [2][9]. Core Insights - Alibaba is expected to achieve in-line revenue growth and adjusted EBITA for 4QFY25, driven by strong GMV growth and improved monetization rates in its core domestic e-commerce business [1][5]. - The cloud business is anticipated to see accelerated year-over-year revenue growth, supported by robust public cloud performance and contributions from AI cloud services [1][5]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the AI era and potential consumption stimulus policies, with non-core businesses projected to reach profitability within 1-2 years [1][5]. Financial Performance - For 4QFY25, Alibaba's revenue is estimated at RMB237.5 billion, representing a 7% year-over-year increase, while adjusted EBITA is forecasted to rise by 36% year-over-year to RMB32.6 billion, resulting in a 13.7% adjusted EBITA margin [5]. - The customer management revenue (CMR) is expected to grow by 10% year-over-year, driven by GMV growth and increased monetization rates [5]. - The Cloud Intelligence Group is projected to achieve 18% year-over-year revenue growth, while AIDC is expected to grow by 26% year-over-year [5]. Earnings Summary - Revenue forecasts for FY25E, FY26E, and FY27E are RMB996.979 billion, RMB1,090.438 billion, and RMB1,173.876 billion, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 5.9%, 9.4%, and 7.7% [6]. - Non-GAAP net profit for FY25E is estimated at RMB160.356 billion, with an adjusted EPS of RMB65.53 [6][8]. Valuation - The target price of US$157.00 is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, translating to 16.9x FY25E PE (non-GAAP) [9]. - The valuation includes contributions from various segments, with Taobao and Tmall Group valued at US$80.8 per ADS and the Cloud Intelligence Group at US$33.1 per ADS [9][10].