机构：华泰证券 研究员：樊俊豪/石狄/刘思奇 公司发布25Q2 业绩，营收同增23.1%至49.7 亿元，高于此前指引（18-21%），经营利润同增11.3%至 8.4 亿元，高于此前指引（持平或略降）。 基本面好转主因大店战略显效、同店转正及经营杠杆优化。Q2 业绩拐点清晰，此外建议关注两个新逻 辑：1）成长驱动由快速拓店转向店效提升，通过开大店好店+精细化运营实现收入目标，推动利润率 加快向好，该逻辑在国内已跑通，正向海外复制；2）加强布局自有IP，在组织架构上强化产品-渠道- 运营一体化，发挥大店作为IP 赛马场及推广平台的优势。看好上述战略迭代赋能公司的全球扩张，维 持"买入"评级，重点推荐。 国内及美国同店转正，大店策略显效并向海外市场复制Q2 营收端：1）Miniso 中国营收同增13.6%，季 度净增30 家门店。同店增速转正，其中ASP 增长对冲了客流的微降，得益于①梳理尾部渠道，存量门 店货盘优化；②供应链改善，提升爆品满足率；③产品-渠道-运营联动造势等。大店策略显效，已开业 11 家IP Land 平均月店效数百万，大店以5%店数贡献中双位数收入占比；2）Miniso 海外营收同增 28 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 52.46 [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a clear inflection point in Q2 performance, driven by the effectiveness of the large store strategy and the positive turnaround in same-store sales, alongside the initiation of the proprietary IP strategy [11][8]. - The company expects a revenue growth rate of over 25% for the full year, with adjusted operating profit projected to reach between RMB 36.5 billion and RMB 38.5 billion [8]. Financial Performance - Q2 revenue increased by 23.1% year-on-year to RMB 4.97 billion, exceeding previous guidance of 18-21% [11]. - The operating profit for Q2 rose by 11.3% year-on-year to RMB 840 million, also surpassing prior guidance [11]. - Gross margin reached a new high of 44.3%, up 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - Adjusted net profit margin decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 13.9% in Q2 [7]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised by 3.7% for each year, now projected at RMB 214.7 billion, RMB 256.6 billion, and RMB 303.6 billion respectively [9]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts remain cautious at RMB 29.9 billion, RMB 37.3 billion, and RMB 45.7 billion for 2025-2027 [9]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is shifting its growth strategy from rapid store expansion to enhancing store efficiency through large store formats and refined operations [11]. - The proprietary IP strategy aims to leverage global channels for IP promotion, enhancing product-channel-operations integration [8]. Market Position and Valuation - The company’s current market capitalization is HKD 48.537 billion, with a closing price of HKD 39.06 as of August 21 [2]. - The report suggests a cautious approach to profitability due to the lower margins from overseas direct operations and TOPTOY revenue contributions [9].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported Q1 2025 earnings with revenue growth of 18.9% to 4.43 billion yuan, exceeding previous guidance of 15-18%, driven by domestic channel upgrades and inventory optimization [1] - Adjusted net profit decreased by 4.8% to 590 million yuan due to rapid expansion of direct stores and increased financial expenses [1] - The company is shifting its domestic strategy from aggressive expansion to refined operations while enhancing supply chain diversity and localization in overseas markets, which is expected to stabilize profitability and support global expansion [1] Revenue Performance - Domestic same-store sales showed improvement, with Miniso China revenue increasing by 9.1%, driven by offline and online growth of 7.3% and 32.7% respectively [1] - The company closed 111 stores in Q1, focusing on older stores under 200 square meters, while same-store sales decline narrowed to single digits [2] - Overseas revenue grew by 30.3%, with 95 new stores added, particularly in North America [1][2] - TopToy revenue surged by 58.9% to 340 million yuan, with self-developed products accounting for over 40% [1] Profitability and Cost Structure - Gross margin improved by 0.8 percentage points to 44.2%, although it decreased by 2.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter due to seasonal effects [2] - Selling and administrative expense ratios increased by 4.4 percentage points and 0.3 percentage points to 23.1% and 5.5% respectively, primarily due to significant investments in direct stores [2] - Adjusted net profit margin decreased by 3.3 percentage points to 13.3% as a result of increased financial expenses related to convertible bonds and acquisitions [2] Strategic Focus - The company is focusing on high-quality growth, with domestic operations centered on same-store sales improvement and enhancing store competitiveness through upgrades [2] - In overseas markets, the company is emphasizing localization and efficiency, with nearly 40% of U.S. purchases sourced locally to mitigate tariff risks [2] - The company aims to improve profitability through refined operations and inventory turnover optimization [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been reduced by 7.1%, 9.0%, and 9.0% to 2.99 billion, 3.73 billion, and 4.57 billion yuan respectively [3] - The target price is set at 47.00 HKD, based on an 18x PE ratio for 2025, reflecting increased uncertainty in overseas expansion [3] - The company maintains a "buy" rating despite the adjustments in profit forecasts [3]