Group 1 - The article highlights that Amazon is being recognized as a hidden winner in the AI space, with a majority of Wall Street analysts recommending it as a "buy" or "strong buy" for 2026, predicting a 21% increase in stock price over the next 12 months [2][3] - Amazon has established itself as a major player in e-commerce and cloud services through Amazon Web Services (AWS), generating significant revenue and earnings over the years [3][4] - The company is leveraging AI to enhance its operations, including streamlining processes in fulfillment centers and developing AI tools such as Trainium chips for AWS customers, which contributes to its growth strategy [6][7] Group 2 - AWS has achieved an annual revenue run rate of $132 billion in the latest quarter, indicating strong growth potential as AI demand continues to rise [7] - Amazon's e-commerce and non-AI-related AWS services are expected to maintain growth due to the company's leadership in these sectors, providing a balance of security and growth for investors [8]

Microsoft this week deployed its first crop of its homegrown AI chips in one of its data centers, with plans to roll out more in the coming months, it says.  The chip, named the Maia 200, is designed to be what Microsoft calls an “AI inference powerhouse” as Microsoft describes, meaning it’s optimized for the compute-intensive work of running AI models in production. The company released some impressive processing-speed specs for Maia, saying it outperforms Amazon’s latest Trainium chips and Google’s latest ...

Key Takeaways Nebius aims for $7-$9B ARR by 2026 with new data centers and AI cloud expansions.Major contracts with Microsoft ($17.4-$19.4B) and Meta (up to $3B) back Nebius' platform.Amazon scales AI across AWS, retail and semiconductors, boosting innovation and customer reach.Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) and Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) offer different investment profiles within the AI cloud space. NBIS is a focused, high-growth AI cloud provider that gives investors direct exposure to rising demand for AI infrast ...

Core Viewpoint - Jensen Huang has established a $4.6 trillion empire through Nvidia, focusing on AI infrastructure, but there are three significant threats to the company's future that are not addressed in earnings calls [1] Group 1: Threats to Nvidia - **Threat 1: Major Customers Developing In-House Chips** Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Alphabet account for 40-50% of Nvidia's revenue and are all creating custom AI chips, which could replace Nvidia's offerings. Inference workloads, which represent 80% of long-term AI compute, are at risk if these companies build their own chips [2][3] - **Threat 2: AMD as a Competitive Alternative** AMD's MI300X chips have gained traction, offering competitive performance at 20-30% lower costs compared to Nvidia. Microsoft Azure and Oracle Cloud are adopting AMD technology, and OpenAI is reportedly testing AMD chips to reduce dependency on Nvidia [4][5][6] - **Threat 3: Geopolitical Risks from China** China's approval of H200 chips may seem positive, but it poses a risk as the country has a history of extracting technology and then developing domestic alternatives. If Nvidia becomes too reliant on the Chinese market, future bans could severely impact revenue [7][8] Group 2: Nvidia's Strategic Omissions - **Lack of Discussion on Customer Developments** Jensen Huang focuses on AI demand and partnerships in earnings calls but avoids discussing customer chip development, AMD's market share, and the implications of inference versus training margins [9][10] - **Market Realities Ignored** The optimistic view assumes AI growth benefits all players, while the pessimistic view recognizes that customers are building their own solutions, AMD is providing cheaper options, and geopolitical tensions could threaten Nvidia's market position [10]

Core Insights - OpenAI is aggressively expanding its partnerships with chipmakers to secure processing power for its AI technology, with a recent $10 billion deal with Cerebras marking a significant step in this direction [2][17] - The company has committed over $1.4 trillion to infrastructure deals with major players like Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom, aiming for a $500 billion private market valuation [3] - Nvidia remains a key partner, having invested $100 billion to support OpenAI's infrastructure, which includes a project to deploy 10 gigawatts of Nvidia systems [5][6] Nvidia - OpenAI has relied on Nvidia's GPUs since its inception, and the partnership has deepened with Nvidia's commitment of $100 billion to support OpenAI's infrastructure [4][5] - The first phase of the Nvidia project is expected to come online in the second half of the year, although there are uncertainties regarding the progression of the agreement [7] - Nvidia's investment will be deployed upon the completion of the first gigawatt of power [8] AMD - OpenAI plans to deploy six gigawatts of AMD's GPUs over multiple years, with AMD issuing a warrant for up to 160 million shares, potentially giving OpenAI a 10% stake in AMD [10] - The first gigawatt of AMD chips is expected to roll out in the second half of 2026, with the deal valued in the billions [11] Broadcom - OpenAI and Broadcom have agreed to deploy 10 gigawatts of custom AI accelerators, with the project expected to be completed by the end of 2029 [14] - Broadcom's CEO has indicated that significant revenue from this partnership is not anticipated in 2026, framing it as a long-term collaboration [15] Cerebras - OpenAI's recent agreement with Cerebras involves deploying 750 megawatts of AI chips, with the deal valued at over $10 billion [16][17] - Cerebras' chips are designed to deliver responses up to 15 times faster than traditional GPU systems, positioning the company for potential public market entry [17] Potential Partners - OpenAI has signed a $38 billion cloud deal with Amazon Web Services, which includes plans for additional infrastructure development [20] - Discussions are ongoing for Amazon to potentially invest over $10 billion in OpenAI, although no official decisions have been made [21] - Google Cloud provides computing capacity to OpenAI, but OpenAI has no plans to utilize Google's in-house chips [22] - Intel, which has lagged in AI chip development, is working on a new data center GPU designed for AI workloads, with customer sampling expected in late 2026 [24]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street is increasingly focused on Amazon's ability to leverage improvements in AI execution at Amazon Web Services (AWS) to drive stock momentum in 2026 [1] Analyst Take - BofA Securities analyst Justin Post reiterated a Buy rating on Amazon with a price target of $303, highlighting that improved sentiment around AWS's AI capabilities could be a key driver for Amazon in 2026 after cloud concerns negatively impacted the stock in 2025 [2] - Amazon's stock gained 5% last year, underperforming the S&P 500's 16% rise and the Nasdaq's 20% gain, as strong retail execution and margin expansion were not enough to alleviate investor concerns regarding AWS's AI competitiveness [2] AWS Positioning and Growth Outlook - Weaker confidence in AWS's positioning contributed to a 15% year-over-year decline in Amazon's forward EV/EBITDA multiple [3] - Expectations for AWS growth to accelerate in 2026 are based on new capacity coming online and leadership changes that may enhance the company's AI narrative, alongside strong growth in Rufus usage supporting Amazon's retail business [3] - Long-term investors may benefit if AWS can leverage its proprietary technology, including large language models and Trainium chips, to improve its competitive stance and become a lower-cost provider as enterprises focus on AI inference cost efficiency [4] Valuation and Financial Estimates - Amazon is currently trading at approximately 11x Street 2027 EBITDA and 25x GAAP EPS, which is slightly above Microsoft Corp at 23x but below Alphabet Inc and Walmart Inc at 26x and 35x respectively [5] - The valuation reflects uncertainty regarding AWS's positioning, but Post considers Amazon the top large-cap internet stock for 2026 due to AWS AI exposure, anticipated cloud acceleration, and a strong retail position [6] - Projected GAAP operating income growth of over 20% in 2026 is supported by retail margin expansion driven by advertising growth, inbound efficiencies, robotics, and headcount leverage [6] - Revenue for 2026 is estimated to grow 12% year-over-year to $801 billion, with GAAP EPS projected at $7.75, while AWS revenue is estimated at $156 billion, slightly above the Street's estimate [7]

Core Insights - Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) has been identified as a top large-cap Internet stock for 2026 by Evercore ISI, highlighting its strong performance in Amazon Web Services (AWS) with a 20% year-over-year growth in Q3, marking the fastest growth rate in 11 quarters [1] - The growth rate of AWS has surpassed that of Microsoft Azure for the first time since Q3 2022, bolstered by a positive narrative surrounding artificial intelligence [1] - Analyst Mark Mahaney projects Amazon as a high-quality compounder with a 25% EPS CAGR, solid double-digit revenue growth, and expanding operating margins, with free cash flow expected to increase significantly in the next 24 months [2] AWS Growth and Future Catalysts - Beyond AWS, several catalysts for Amazon's growth have been identified, including Trainium chips, increased engagement with Alexa+, the grocery business, Amazon Pharmacy, Amazon Leo, Zoox's robotaxi service, and a renewed focus on the Amazon for Business segment [2] - The company has paused its plans for commercial drone deliveries in Italy due to regulatory challenges, despite positive engagement with local aerospace regulators [3] Business Segments - Amazon operates in various segments, including retail sales of subscription services, advertising, and consumer products through both physical and online stores, with operations in International, North America, and AWS segments [3]

Core Viewpoint - Amazon and Alphabet are leading players in the cloud computing market, with Alphabet's stock significantly outperforming Amazon's in 2025, climbing nearly 60% compared to Amazon's modest gains [1][3]. Alphabet's Case - Alphabet has transformed its image from an AI underperformer to a potential AI leader, significantly impacting investor perceptions [3]. - The company has advanced its Gemini foundational large language model (LLM) and custom AI chips, integrating these technologies across its products, which has boosted search revenue [4]. - Alphabet's Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) are gaining recognition as a top alternative to Nvidia's GPUs, with a notable $21 billion purchase commitment from Anthropic for the next year [6]. - The combination of high-quality AI chips and a leading LLM is expected to create a self-reinforcing advantage for Alphabet over time [7]. Amazon's Case - Amazon's recent performance has been less impressive, primarily due to AWS growth lagging behind competitors like Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud, although AWS revenue growth accelerated to 20% last quarter [9]. - The company is increasing its capital expenditure to meet rising demand for AWS services [9]. - Amazon's e-commerce segment is performing well, benefiting from robotics and AI investments, with North America revenue rising 11% and adjusted operating income increasing by 28% [12]. Verdict - Both Alphabet and Amazon are viewed as attractive investments heading into 2026, with forward price-to-earnings ratios below 30 and solid growth prospects [13]. - While Alphabet is expected to be a long-term AI winner, Amazon's stock is anticipated to outperform in 2026 as AWS revenue accelerates and Trainium gains traction, potentially shifting investor perceptions [15].

Core Viewpoint - Jim Cramer warns Amazon against engaging in speculative AI deals reminiscent of the 1990s dotcom bubble, particularly a potential $10 billion investment in OpenAI for the use of its custom AI chips [1] Group 1: Investment Concerns - Amazon is reportedly in discussions for a $10 billion investment in OpenAI, which raises concerns about the necessity of selling Trainium chips [1] - Cramer expresses disbelief that Amazon would participate in such deals, labeling them as "not real" [1] - The current trend of high AI-related spending by major companies is alarming, as it mirrors the speculative behavior seen before the dotcom crash [1] Group 2: Market Predictions - Cramer predicts that the stock market will not support excessive speculative investments, referencing the historical crash of the tech-heavy Nasdaq after the 2000 peak [1] - He describes the interconnected investment activities in AI as a potential bubble, drawing parallels to the year 2000 [1] Group 3: OpenAI's Activities - OpenAI has been aggressively securing computing power from various firms, including Nvidia and Oracle, amounting to $1.4 trillion in infrastructure commitments recently [1] - Cramer characterizes OpenAI's current deal-making as "2000 in a nutshell," indicating a pattern of leveraged bets that could lead to a bubble [1]

These days, the OpenAI investment news cycle feels like the most expensive game of musical chairs ever played. And this week, there’s a new player scrambling for a seat. Amazon is in talks to invest at least $10 billion in OpenAI, according to a report from The Information, in a deal that could push the value of the startup past $500 billion. Analysts say the deal looks like a marriage of necessity: OpenAI needs help funding its enormous burn rate, while Amazon needs proof that its custom Trainium chips ...