证 券 研 究 报 告 通信行业周报（20250707-20250713） 博通管理层会议指引积极，Grok 4 正式发布，建 推荐（维持） 议关注海外算力链景气度机遇 行业研究 通信 2025 年 07 月 13 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：欧子兴 邮箱：ouzixing@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080007 联系人：谢然 邮箱：xieran@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 123 | 0.02 | | 总市值(亿元) | 49,248.97 | 4.66 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 23,006.93 | 2.77 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 8.7% | 18.6% | 30.5% | | 相对表现 | 4.9% | 11.2% | 13.5% | -13% 3% 18% 33% 24/07 24/09 24/12 25/02 25/04 25/07 2024-07-12~2025-0 ...

Group 1: AI Market Overview - The AI landscape is dominated by companies involved in infrastructure, software, and consumer applications, indicating that AI is a permanent fixture in the business world [1] - Investments in AI infrastructure are rapidly increasing, with expectations that AI will significantly impact global jobs and generate trillions in economic growth [2] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Price declines in leading AI companies should be viewed as buying opportunities for long-term investors [3] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - **Palantir Technologies**: Specializes in custom AI software for government and corporate clients, with revenue growth accelerating since the launch of its AI Platform. Currently has 622 commercial customers out of over 20,000 potential large companies in the U.S. [5][6] - **Arm Holdings**: Designs chip architectures and earns revenue from licensing. Has shipped over 310 billion Arm-based chips and is expected to grow earnings by 22% annually, but has a high P/E ratio of 85 [7][9] - **Apple**: Has a vast AI opportunity with over 2.3 billion active users but is currently facing challenges with its AI initiatives. Expected to achieve double-digit earnings growth, but should be bought at a lower valuation than its current P/E of 30 [10][11] - **Meta Platforms**: Utilizing AI to enhance its advertising business and has developed the Llama AI model. Anticipates mid-teens annualized earnings growth, making it a strong buy on pullbacks [12][13] - **Broadcom**: Experiencing growth from AI networking chips, with a 46% year-over-year revenue increase in AI-related semiconductors. Expected to grow earnings by 25% annually and has a strong dividend history [14][15]

Core Insights - Apple's artificial intelligence (AI) strategy is underperforming compared to peers, leading to stagnation in growth and lack of innovative product launches [1][5] - Companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Broadcom are expected to experience significant growth in the AI sector, potentially surpassing Apple by 2030 [2][12] Group 1: Apple's Current Position - Apple has a market capitalization of $3.1 trillion, significantly higher than Broadcom's $1.3 trillion and Taiwan Semiconductor's $1.2 trillion [4] - Earnings growth for Apple has slowed, with expectations of only a high-single-digit rate increase in earnings per share (EPS) [5] - Apple trades at 32.7 times earnings, compared to the S&P 500's 24.2 times, indicating a significant premium that may not be sustainable [7] Group 2: Competitors' Growth Potential - Taiwan Semiconductor is projected to see AI-related revenue grow at a 45% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) over the next five years, with overall growth at nearly 20% CAGR [9] - This growth could result in a 150% increase in revenue for Taiwan Semiconductor, positioning it close to Apple by 2030 [10] - Broadcom's custom AI accelerators, known as XPUs, are gaining popularity and could tap into a market worth between $60 billion and $90 billion by 2027 [11][12]

AI强劲需求助推博通业务多线增长 小摩重申"增持"评级 智通财经7月11日电，摩根大通发布研报称，该行近日与博通的管理层进行了投资者小组会议，讨论重 点围绕强劲的人工智能(AI)需求趋势，这不仅推动了博通定制AI XPU业务的增长，也带动了对其高性 能网络产品组合的强劲需求。此外，订单回暖突显出非AI业务也出现了逐步复苏的趋势，VMware业务 持续增长。该行重申对博通的"增持"评级，对该股在2025年12月的目标价为325美元。这一目标价较博 通7月10日收盘价275.4美元有约18%的上涨空间。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report highlights strong demand trends in artificial intelligence (AI) driving growth for Broadcom's custom AI XPU business and high-performance networking product portfolio [1][3] Group 1: AI Demand and Market Potential - AI demand remains robust, with inference workloads creating additional demand that was not included in the previous 2027 serviceable available market (SAM) forecast, indicating potential upside [2] - The execution in product technology development is strong, with 2nm 3.5D AI XPU products expected to complete tape-out this year, and the first generation AI XPU products also anticipated to complete tape-out, with partnerships established with key potential clients [2][3] Group 2: Networking and Non-AI Business Recovery - AI computing workloads are driving strong networking demand, significantly enhancing unit value in expanded networks, providing substantial revenue capture opportunities [2] - Non-AI semiconductor business is experiencing a "U-shaped" gradual recovery, with observed order/reservation inflection points expected to drive earnings per share (EPS) upgrades next year [2] Group 3: VMware and Overall Financial Outlook - The VMware Cloud Foundation (VCF) platform transition is expected to continue driving strong growth for VMware business, projected to reach an annual revenue of $20 billion by the end of 2026 or 2027, with growth rates returning to mid to high single digits thereafter [2] - Despite some margin pressure in AI XPU business, overall semiconductor operating profit margins are expected to continue expanding due to operational leverage, with management focusing on reinvestment in AI growth opportunities rather than acquisitions [3] Group 4: Market Position and Valuation - Broadcom is positioned as the second-largest AI semiconductor supplier globally and the largest custom chip (ASIC) supplier, with a strong presence in wireless communication, data center networking, AI/deep learning ASICs, storage, and infrastructure silicon chips [3][4] - Morgan Stanley maintains a price target of $325 for Broadcom by December 2025, representing approximately 18% upside from the closing price of $275.4 on July 10 [3]

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research 09 July 2025 Broadcom Inc Mgmt Meeting: AI Demand Remains Strong Driven By Inference Along With Non-AI Businesses Recovery and Sustained VMware Revenue Growth; Business Firing On All Cylinders Yesterday, we hosted an investor group meeting with Broadcom's President and CEO, Hock Tan, CFO, Kirsten Spears, and VP of IR, Ji Yoo. The discussions centered around strong AI demand trends, which are driving strong growth in Broadcom's custom AI XPU business and driving ...

Core Insights - The management of Broadcom has indicated a significant and unexpected increase in demand for AI inference, which is currently exceeding existing production capacity, suggesting potential upward revisions in future profitability [1][2][3] - Non-AI business segments are also showing signs of recovery, particularly through VMware's growth, contributing to a multi-faceted growth strategy for the company [1][4] AI Inference Demand - Broadcom's custom AI XPU chip business remains strong, with a clear growth trajectory. The past year saw AI demand primarily focused on training workloads, but a notable surge in inference demand has been observed in the last two months as clients seek to monetize their AI investments [2][3] - The current inference demand is not included in Broadcom's 2027 market size forecast, which estimates $60-90 billion for three existing AI clients, indicating a potential upside opportunity [3] Technological Advancements - Broadcom is collaborating closely with four potential AI XPU clients, aiming to build 1 million XPU AI cluster infrastructures. The company plans to complete the first generation of AI XPU products for two major clients this year [3] - The company is leading the industry transition to next-generation 2nm 3.5D packaging AI XPU architecture, with plans to complete the 2nm 3.5D AI XPU tape-out this year [3] Non-AI Business Recovery - After several quarters of cyclical pressure in non-AI semiconductor businesses, Broadcom is witnessing a gradual "U"-shaped recovery, reflected in current booking and order situations. This recovery may drive positive EPS revisions next year [4] - VMware is leveraging its cloud infrastructure (VCF) platform to provide comprehensive solutions for large enterprise clients, with expected revenue growth to approximately $20 billion annually by 2026/2027 [4] Profitability and Financial Metrics - Despite potential pressure on gross margins from high demand for custom AI XPUs, Broadcom anticipates continued expansion of operating margins due to operational leverage. AI revenue is expected to grow by 60% year-over-year in fiscal 2026, while operating expenses are not expected to increase at the same rate [5] - Key financial estimates for Broadcom include projected revenues of $51.574 billion for FY24, $63.447 billion for FY25, and $76.362 billion for FY26, with adjusted EPS expected to grow from $4.86 in FY24 to $8.38 in FY26 [6] Market Outlook - JPMorgan maintains an "overweight" rating on Broadcom with a target price of $325, representing a 16.9% upside from the current stock price. Broadcom's stock has risen nearly 20% year-to-date [7]

He believes these customers—including OpenAI—are aiming to build massive AI clusters of "1 million XPU" units, which would place Broadcom at the heart of the AI buildout. Nvidia Corp NVDA may dominate AI headlines, but JPMorgan's Harlan Sur thinks Broadcom Inc AVGO deserves more credit for building the infrastructure that makes artificial intelligence work. From cutting-edge XPUs to networking muscle and enterprise software, Broadcom is the "#2 global AI semiconductor supplier" and the top name in custom AS ...

Core Insights - Artificial intelligence (AI) investing is thriving in 2025, with record data center spending and major tech companies expanding their plans, indicating strong investment opportunities in the sector [1] Group 1: AI Infrastructure - Companies like Nvidia, Broadcom, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) are key players in AI infrastructure, benefiting from significant AI spending [4] - Nvidia's GPUs are central to the AI revolution, with no true competition, while Broadcom's custom AI accelerators (XPUs) can outperform GPUs under specific workloads [5][6] - TSMC is crucial for both Nvidia and Broadcom, providing advanced chip technology, which is expected to see a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 45% for AI-related chips over the next five years [7][8] Group 2: Cloud Computing - Major AI companies like Alphabet and Amazon are expanding data centers not only for internal use but also for rental to other businesses lacking resources for AI infrastructure [9] - Companies are increasingly renting computing power from cloud providers like Amazon Web Services (AWS) and Google Cloud, which is driving demand for GPUs from Nvidia [10] - The cloud computing market is projected to grow from $750 billion in 2024 to $2.4 trillion by 2030, presenting significant investment opportunities in companies like Amazon and Alphabet [11]

June 30, 2025 09:00 PM GMT Global Technology AI Supply Chain: Semis Field Trip – Key Takeaways TSMC's 2026 CoWoS capacity is growing > 30% Y/Y, psoitive for both the Nvidia and AI ASIC supply chains. On the other hand, B30 GPU shipments to China will be a wild card for China's AI capex. Over the past week, our global semis team met with ~20 corporate and AI industry experts in the AI supply chain in Taiwan and Beijing. We also met investors there to get a sense of market sentiment. In general, investors are ...