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Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight (OW) rating on US stocks, Treasuries, and US Investment Grade Corporate Credit, emphasizing a focus on quality assets [3][4][5]. Core Insights - The report indicates a global growth slowdown, forecasting a decline from 3.5% in 2024 to 2.5% in 2025, with the US experiencing a drop in real GDP growth from 2.5% in 2024 to 1.0% in both 2025 and 2026 [1][7]. - The impact of tariffs is highlighted as a structural shock to the global trading order, affecting demand and supply across various economies, particularly in the US and China [1][7]. - Despite the anticipated slowdown, the report suggests that risk assets may perform well as markets adjust to less severe growth expectations [2][3]. Economic Forecasts - Global GDP growth is projected at 2.5% for 2025, with the US at 1.0%, Euro Area at 0.8%, Japan at 0.3%, and Emerging Markets (EM) at 3.8% [8]. - Inflation rates are expected to be 2.1% globally and 3.0% in the US for 2025, with a gradual decline in subsequent years [8]. Sector Recommendations - In the US, the report favors quality cyclicals, large caps, and defensives with lower leverage and cheaper valuations [5]. - For Japan, the focus is on domestic reflation and corporate reform beneficiaries, while in Europe, the report recommends a shift towards resilient sectors such as defense, banks, software, telecoms, and diversified financials [5]. - Emerging Markets are recommended to focus on financials and profitability leaders, with a preference for domestic-focused businesses over exporters [5]. Market Valuations - The report provides specific price targets and P/E ratios for major indices, including S&P 500 at 6,500 with a P/E of 21.5x, MSCI Europe at 2,250 with a P/E of 15.2x, and MSCI EM at 1,200 with a P/E of 12.5x [6].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment sentiment with a Bull & Bear Indicator reading of 5.4, suggesting a balanced outlook for global equities [12][75]. Core Insights - Investor sentiment has recovered to pre-Liberation Day levels as fears of trade wars and recessions diminish, with cash levels decreasing to 4.2% from 4.8% in April [1][17]. - Expectations for global growth have improved, with a significant reversal in recession odds, dropping from 42% likelihood in April to 36% in June [2][18]. - The best-performing asset expected over the next five years is international stocks, with 54% of investors favoring them, followed by US stocks at 23% [3][50]. Summary by Sections Macro & Micro - Global growth expectations remain weak, with a net of 46% of investors expecting a weaker economy, although this is an improvement from a record 82% in April [2][22]. - The sentiment for a "soft landing" has risen to 66%, the highest since October 2024, while "hard landing" expectations have decreased to 13% [23][24]. Returns, Risks, Crowds - The most crowded trades include long gold (41%) and long Magnificent 7 (23%), with trade war recession still seen as the primary tail risk at 47% [3][54]. - A net 21% of investors expect higher long-term bond yields, the highest since August 2022 [49]. Asset Allocation - There has been a rotation towards emerging markets, energy, banks, and industrials, while reducing exposure to staples, utilities, and healthcare [4][60]. - The average cash level among investors has decreased to 4.2%, indicating a shift towards equities [17][75]. Corporate Sentiment - Investors view corporate balance sheets as the healthiest since December 2015, with a net 3% stating companies are "underleveraged" [43]. - There is a strong desire for companies to return cash to shareholders, with 32% of investors advocating for this strategy, the highest since July 2013 [46]. Sector and Regional Allocation - FMS investors are net 36% underweight US equities, while being net 34% overweight Eurozone equities [139][140]. - The allocation to banks has increased significantly, with a net 25% overweight position, reflecting a positive sentiment towards the financial sector [156].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight (OW) rating on US stocks, Treasuries, and US Investment Grade Corporate Credit, while recommending a focus on quality assets [4][5][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights a structural shock to the global trading order due to the broad imposition of tariffs by the US, which is expected to weigh on growth but not lead to a global recession [2]. - US real GDP growth is projected to decline from 2.5% in 2024 to 1.0% in both 2025 and 2026, with global growth expected to decrease from 3.5% to 2.5% in the same period [2][9]. - The report suggests that while global growth is slowing, risk assets may perform well as markets adjust to lower growth expectations [3]. Economic Outlook - The US economy is expected to experience a step-down in growth, with inflation projected to peak in Q3 2025 [2][8]. - The report anticipates a decline in global demand due to tariffs, impacting exports and investment in the euro area and China [8]. - Japan's nominal GDP reflation remains intact, but the global slowdown is expected to affect its exports and investment [8]. Sector Recommendations - In the US, the report favors quality cyclicals, large caps, and defensives with less leverage and cheaper valuations [6]. - Key sectors recommended for Europe include defense, banks, software, telecoms, and diversified financials, while in emerging markets, the focus is on financials and domestic businesses [6]. - The report advises against cyclical exporters in Japan due to anticipated JPY appreciation [6]. Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts for major indices, with the S&P 500 expected to reach a price target of 6,500 by June 2026, reflecting a 9% year-over-year increase [7]. - The MSCI Europe index is projected to have a modest growth of 2.2% year-over-year, while the MSCI Emerging Markets index is expected to grow by 10% [7]. Monetary Policy Expectations - The report expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 175 basis points in 2026, with Treasury yields projected to reach 4.00% by the end of 2025 [14][19]. - The European Central Bank and Bank of England are also expected to implement rate cuts, with the ECB delivering 75 basis points and the BoE 100 basis points by year-end [14][19]. Commodity Insights - Oil prices are subject to geopolitical uncertainties, with potential scenarios ranging from minimal disruption to significant price increases depending on developments in the Middle East [16]. - European gas prices are expected to rise due to a strong demand for LNG imports to meet storage targets [17]. - Gold is highlighted as a top pick due to strong central bank demand and safe-haven interest amid growth concerns [17].