高工锂电年会观点反馈 20251125 摘要 锂电板块虽经历调整，但长期向好趋势不变。上周调整主因前期强势补 跌及会议期间情绪波动，但整体需求端预期乐观，是较好的上车时点。 2026 年锂电需求端预期普遍乐观，储能预计增长 50%以上，动力方面 虽增速放缓，但仍预计增长 20%左右，整体动储需求增速预计在 30% 左右。 锂电产业链各环节盈利有望恢复，储能电芯价格已明确上涨至 3 毛多， 动力端通过新品实现盈利，材料端如六氟磷酸锂、VC 等供需紧张，铁锂 正极材料产能利用率偏紧，将推动价格上涨。 碳酸锂供需关系乐观，库存低位，预计旺季价格上涨至 10-15 万元/吨 左右，但涨幅有限。长期来看，2028 年前后供需关系会更加紧张。 电池产业地位和格局确定性强，盈利能力持续性高；材料端新盈利周期 明确且具弹性；碳酸锂因长供应周期具长期潜力。储能需求旺盛，集成 公司值得关注。 负极材料领域新增产能有限，头部公司扩产克制，预计产能利用率提升 至 80%，价格方面小客户涨价超过 1,000 元，大客户价格恢复到三季 度降价前水平。 看好中游电池板块，需求旺盛且业绩兑现度高。首推电池与储能环节， 其次是六氟磷酸盐与碳酸 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the organic silicon industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The peak production period for organic silicon has passed, and companies are collaborating to reduce output, leading to a potential price recovery from the bottom [1]. - Domestic organic silicon DMC capacity increased from 1.515 million tons/year in 2019 to 3.44 million tons/year by 2024, with limited new capacity expected in the future [1]. - As of March 19, 2025, the average market price for organic silicon was 14,500 CNY/ton, reflecting an 11.5% increase since the beginning of the year, although profit margins remain negative [1]. - The demand for organic silicon is steadily growing, with a CAGR of approximately 10.7% from 2020 to 2024, driven primarily by the construction and electronics sectors [3]. - The report suggests that the limited new supply and increasing demand will likely stabilize and improve the pricing and profitability of organic silicon products [1][3]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Industry Overview - The organic silicon industry is experiencing a supply reduction due to increased maintenance and repairs among producers, with 182,000 tons of capacity under maintenance as of February 19, 2025 [2]. - The inventory levels of organic silicon DMC are stable, with a slight increase since September 2024, but still within the median range of the past three years [2]. Section 2: Demand and Applications - The apparent consumption of organic silicon DMC in China rose from 1.21 million tons in 2020 to 1.82 million tons in 2024, with significant growth in exports at a CAGR of 22.5% during the same period [3]. - Key application areas for organic silicon include construction and electronics, which account for 25% and 23% of consumption, respectively [3]. - The report highlights the potential for growth in high-end construction sealants and materials for photovoltaic and electric vehicle sectors, driven by policy support and technological advancements [3]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies in the organic silicon production sector such as Hoshine Silicon Industry, Xingfa Group, and New安股份, as well as application companies like Ruifeng New Materials and Silica宝科技 [3].