高工锂电年会观点反馈 20251125 摘要 锂电板块虽经历调整，但长期向好趋势不变。上周调整主因前期强势补 跌及会议期间情绪波动，但整体需求端预期乐观，是较好的上车时点。 2026 年锂电需求端预期普遍乐观，储能预计增长 50%以上，动力方面 虽增速放缓，但仍预计增长 20%左右，整体动储需求增速预计在 30% 左右。 锂电产业链各环节盈利有望恢复，储能电芯价格已明确上涨至 3 毛多， 动力端通过新品实现盈利，材料端如六氟磷酸锂、VC 等供需紧张，铁锂 正极材料产能利用率偏紧，将推动价格上涨。 碳酸锂供需关系乐观，库存低位，预计旺季价格上涨至 10-15 万元/吨 左右，但涨幅有限。长期来看，2028 年前后供需关系会更加紧张。 电池产业地位和格局确定性强，盈利能力持续性高；材料端新盈利周期 明确且具弹性；碳酸锂因长供应周期具长期潜力。储能需求旺盛，集成 公司值得关注。 负极材料领域新增产能有限，头部公司扩产克制，预计产能利用率提升 至 80%，价格方面小客户涨价超过 1,000 元，大客户价格恢复到三季 度降价前水平。 看好中游电池板块，需求旺盛且业绩兑现度高。首推电池与储能环节， 其次是六氟磷酸盐与碳酸 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in lithium carbonate prices is driven by a combination of strong demand, declining inventory, supportive policies, and increased funding in the industry [5][26]. Group 1: Price Movement - On November 17, lithium carbonate futures hit a limit up, reaching 95,200 yuan/ton, marking a three-month high with a weekly increase of 6.15% and a volatility of 9.16% [7]. - The surge in futures prices led to significant increases in stock prices of leading lithium companies, with Tianhua New Energy rising by 16.7% and other major stocks hitting their daily limits [7][3]. Group 2: Demand Dynamics - In October, domestic power battery installations reached 84.1 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 42.1%, with new energy vehicle production and sales also on the rise [9]. - The demand for lithium is further bolstered by the new energy storage sector, with the National Development and Reform Commission projecting that new energy storage installations will reach 180 million kilowatts by 2027 [9]. Group 3: Inventory Trends - Lithium carbonate social inventory has been declining for 12 consecutive weeks, with total inventory across the industry chain at 84,234 tons in October [11]. - The reduction in inventory levels across smelters, cathode manufacturers, and battery producers indicates a significant shift in supply-demand dynamics [11]. Group 4: Policy and Funding Support - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued a plan to stabilize growth in the non-ferrous metals industry, aiming to rationally layout lithium carbonate projects and prevent low-level redundant construction [14]. - Starting January, the purchase tax for new energy vehicles will shift from full exemption to a 50% reduction, stimulating short-term demand as manufacturers and consumers rush to make purchases before the year-end [14]. Group 5: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Institutional investors have been actively positioning themselves in the lithium sector, with the top ten stocks in the China Rare Metals Theme Index, including Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium, accounting for 60% of the index [15]. - Ganfeng Lithium's chairman predicts global lithium carbonate demand could reach 1.55 million tons by 2025, with a potential 30% increase to 1.9 million tons in 2026, suggesting that prices could exceed 200,000 yuan/ton if demand growth surpasses 40% [19]. Group 6: Current Market Status - As of November 19, lithium carbonate futures continued to rise slightly by 0.8%, settling at 95,960 yuan/ton, while spot prices also showed a modest recovery [20][22]. - The domestic lithium carbonate operating rate remains low at around 45%, primarily due to cost issues faced by smaller producers [22]. - In October, lithium carbonate imports are expected to decrease by approximately 5% month-on-month, indicating a tight supply situation [24].

碳酸锂产业日报 2025/11/19 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建 议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发， 需注明出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 99,300.00 | +5780.00↑ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -177,098.00 | +429.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | 503,132.00 | +18775. ...

Group 1: Commodity ETFs Growth - The total scale of commodity ETFs in the market has increased by over 200% this year, reaching a total of 229.99 billion yuan with a net inflow of 102.02 billion yuan as of November 14 [1] - The primary driver of this growth is the performance of gold ETFs, with leading products like Huaan Gold ETF growing from 1.2 billion yuan at inception to 87.38 billion yuan, a more than 70-fold increase [1] - The rise in commodity prices has created a profit-making effect that attracts capital into commodity ETFs, which offer a low-threshold and transparent investment tool for ordinary investors [1] Group 2: Asset Sales by A-Share Companies - Nearly 250 A-share companies have announced asset sales since October, reflecting a significant increase compared to previous years [1] - Companies are selling assets to focus on core businesses, accelerate capital recovery, or improve annual performance due to unsatisfactory results in the first three quarters [1] - The urgency of asset sales is influenced by new delisting regulations that pressure companies to meet financial data standards, although there are uncertainties in completing these sales by year-end [1] Group 3: Lithium Battery Industry and Energy Storage - The energy storage market has surged since Q3, driving rapid demand for lithium battery materials, with prices for lithium hexafluorophosphate, lithium iron phosphate, and lithium carbonate significantly increasing [2] - Phosphate lithium batteries dominate the new energy storage sector, accounting for over 97% of installed capacity [2] - The energy storage boom is seen as a new growth driver for lithium demand, indicating that this trend may just be beginning [2] Group 4: Major Contracts and Stock Price Catalysts - Nearly 70 A-share companies have signed significant contracts or strategic cooperation agreements since October, which are viewed positively by the market and tend to boost stock prices [3] - The mechanical equipment and power equipment sectors have the highest number of companies involved in these contracts, with notable projects like a 6.16 billion yuan contract for a large-scale energy storage project [3] Group 5: Hong Kong-listed Automakers' Q3 Reports - Xpeng Motors, Leap Motor, and Geely Auto reported their Q3 results, with Xpeng's losses narrowing significantly, Leap continuing to be profitable, and Geely's profits increasing substantially [4] - The automotive industry is expected to face a critical phase next year, with companies needing strong profitability to survive [4] - All three companies expressed optimism about the market outlook and plans to accelerate overseas expansion despite the upcoming reduction in new energy vehicle purchase tax incentives [4]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a strong rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a 10-year high, and various indices such as the ChiNext Index and Northbound 50 rising over 2% [1] - Nearly 4,000 stocks increased in value, with trading volume expanding to 2.07 trillion yuan [1] Sector Performance - Sectors such as lithium batteries, new materials, forestry, and agricultural chemicals saw significant gains, while telecommunications services, transportation, aerospace equipment, and consumer electronics experienced slight adjustments [1] - The electric power equipment sector attracted over 31.3 billion yuan in net inflows, with non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and electronics also receiving over 10 billion yuan each [1] Investment Strategy - Zhongyuan Securities indicated that the A-share market is at a critical transition point, with a rebalancing of market styles expected to continue, alternating between cyclical and technology sectors [1] - Investors are advised to adopt a balanced allocation strategy focusing on "cyclical + technology growth" to seize structural opportunities, while maintaining reasonable positions and avoiding impulsive trading [1] Lithium Battery Sector - The lithium battery industry saw a comprehensive surge, with solid-state batteries, energy storage, and nickel metal sectors reaching historical highs [2] - The "2025 World Power Battery Conference" concluded with 180 signed projects totaling 86.13 billion yuan, covering key areas in green energy [2] New Materials Sector - The new materials sector also experienced significant growth, with indices reaching historical highs and several companies, such as Furi Shares and Pingtan Development, achieving consecutive trading limits [3] - The focus on new materials, including semiconductor materials and high-value products, is emphasized as a key development direction in China's chemical industry [3]

Group 1 - The Shenzhen Growth 40 Index has shown strong performance, with a 2.50% increase, and key stocks such as Upstream Electric and Zhongcai Technology have risen significantly, indicating a robust growth trend in the market [1][3] - The top three industries represented in the Shenzhen Growth 40 Index are Power Equipment and New Energy (31.10%), Basic Chemicals (13.74%), and Communications (12.51%), highlighting the sectors driving growth [1] - Domestic power battery installation volume reached 578 GWh from January to October this year, a year-on-year increase of 42.4%, while global energy storage battery shipments grew by 90.7% in the same period, indicating a strong upward trend in the battery industry [1] Group 2 - Citic Securities predicts that global energy storage installations will reach approximately 290 GWh by 2025 and could reach 1.17 TWh by 2030, showcasing significant growth potential in the energy storage sector [2] - The domestic energy storage industry chain is gaining a competitive edge, with increasing global market share in battery cells and storage systems, supported by favorable policies that are accelerating marketization [2] - The basic chemicals sector is expected to experience a cyclical recovery driven by profit improvements, with factors such as capacity cycle recovery and policy support contributing to this trend [2] Group 3 - The top ten weighted stocks in the Shenzhen Growth 40 Index account for 69.02% of the index, with leading companies including CATL and Xinyu Technology, indicating concentrated investment in key growth firms [3]

11月18~20日，2025（第十五届）高工锂电年会暨十五周年庆典&高工金球奖颁奖典礼将在深圳前 海华侨城JW万豪酒店举行， 观众扫描下方二维码 可直接 报名参会 ： 2025（第十五届）高工锂电年会盛会为期3天，设置12大专场论坛，预计将吸引1000余家锂电产业 链上下游企业的1500余名企业高层齐聚一堂，共商锂电产业新征程。 1、最新议程可点击查看： 倒计时10天！2025高工锂电年会暨15周年庆典最新议程发布 2、参会攻略可点击查看： 倒计时12天！2025（第十五届）高工锂电年会参会攻略 3、参会名单可点击查看： 2025高工锂电年会第一批参会名单公布 王燕清/赵盛宇/卢淼/王瑾/付文辉等领衔 超100位设备领袖出席高工年会 4、出席嘉宾可点击查看： 星恒电源董事长冯笑将在高工锂电15周年年会发表主题演讲 格林美董事长许开华确认出席高工锂电15周年年会 思客琦董事长兼总经理付文辉确认出席高工锂电15周年年会 容百科技董事长白厚善确认出席高工锂电15周年年会 杉杉科技董事长李凤凤确认出席高工锂电15周年年会 龙蟠科技董事长石俊峰确认出席高工锂电15周年年会 先导智能董事长王燕清将在高工锂电15周年年会做 ...

11月18~20日，2025（第十五届）高工锂电年会暨十五周年庆典&高工金球奖颁奖典礼将在深圳前 海华侨城JW万豪酒店举行， 观众扫描下方二维码 可直接 报名参会 ： 2025（第十五届）高工锂电年会盛会为期3天，设置12大专场论坛，预计将吸引1000余家锂电产业 链上下游企业的1500余名企业高层齐聚一堂，共商锂电产业新征程。 1、最新议程可点击查看： 倒计时14天！2025高工锂电年会暨15周年庆典最新议程发布 2、参会攻略可点击查看： 倒计时12天！2025（第十五届）高工锂电年会参会攻略 3、参会名单可点击查看： 2025高工锂电年会第一批参会名单公布 王燕清/赵盛宇/卢淼/王瑾/付文辉等领衔 超100位设备领袖出席高工年会 4、出席嘉宾可点击查看： 曾毓群/刘金成/王明旺/杨红新/曹辉齐聚高工锂电15周年年会 楚能黄锋/因湃许俊海/巨湾裴锋/清陶陈凯等共赴高工锂电15周年年会 宁德时代董事长曾毓群确认出席高工锂电15周年年会 亿纬锂能董事长刘金成确认出席高工锂电15周年年会 飞哥十五周年年会邀约：回望与前瞻 欣旺达创始人王明旺将在高工锂电15周年年会发表主题演讲 星恒电源董事长冯笑将在高工锂电15周 ...

Core Insights - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association forecasts a 6% increase in the added value of the nonferrous metals industry by 2025, with an expected production of around 80 million tons of ten commonly used nonferrous metals [1] - The production of recycled metals is projected to exceed 20 million tons, while the prices of copper and aluminum are expected to remain high, and the prices of industrial silicon and lithium carbonate are hovering at low levels [1] - The revenue of large-scale nonferrous metal enterprises is expected to approach 10 trillion yuan, with total profits around 450 billion yuan, potentially setting historical records [1] Industry Overview - China's lithium carbonate production from January to September this year was approximately 588,000 tons, and lithium hydroxide production was about 303,000 tons, with the basic lithium salt industry primarily distributed in Jiangxi, Sichuan, Qinghai, Jiangsu, and Shandong [1] - The lithium battery industry chain in China is complete and has significant scale advantages, with a focus on the entire lifecycle from development to recycling [2] - The domestic market for new energy vehicles and energy storage provides ample space for technological iteration and capacity absorption [2] Challenges and Recommendations - The lithium industry faces challenges such as high dependence on foreign lithium resources, insufficient capacity utilization, profitability pressures, and risks related to core technology competition and iteration [2] - It is recommended that lithium industry enterprises increase R&D investment, optimize operational management, promote green and intelligent development, and enhance collaboration across the industry chain to effectively respond to the complex market environment [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Downstream demand is strong, and the transition point between the traditional peak and off - peak seasons may be postponed. The fundamentals are improving stage - by - stage, with a shortage of tradable spot goods and a strengthening of the premium/discount transaction price. If the resumption of production at large mines in Jiangxi is delayed, the trend of destocking social inventory of lithium carbonate is expected to continue until the end of the fourth quarter. - During the week, the total positions of all contracts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by more than 100,000 lots. The price recovery increased the hedging willingness of holders, and the net short positions of the main contracts increased significantly. Subsequently, pay attention to the selling pressure brought by industrial hedging and the release of supply elasticity, and monitor changes in the atmosphere of the commodity market. [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot and Futures Market**: On October 24, the morning quote of the Mysteel MMLC lithium carbonate spot index was 79,169 yuan, with a weekly increase of 4.81%. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 79,400 yuan. On the same day, the closing price of LC2601 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 79,520 yuan, with a weekly increase of 4.94%. [12] - **Supply**: On October 24, SMM reported that the weekly domestic lithium carbonate production was 21,308 tons, a 1.1% increase from the previous week. The weekly domestic lithium carbonate production continued to reach new highs. In September 2025, China imported 19,596 tons of lithium carbonate, a 10.3% decrease from the previous month but a 20.5% increase year - on - year. From January to September, the total import volume of lithium carbonate in China was approximately 173,000 tons, a 5.2% increase year - on - year. In September 2025, Chile exported 15,900 tons of lithium carbonate, a 13% year - on - year and 6% month - on - month decrease. Among them, the export volume to China was 11,100 tons, a 14% decrease from the previous month. The reduction in South American exports alleviated the domestic import pressure in October. [12] - **Demand**: According to the China Passenger Car Association, from October 1 to 19, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market reached 632,000 units, a 5% increase compared to the same period in October last year and a 2% increase compared to the same period last month. The penetration rate of new energy vehicle retail sales in the national passenger car market was 56.1%. It is estimated that the new energy vehicle retail sales in October will reach about 1.32 million, and the penetration rate is expected to increase to about 60%. October is the traditional peak season for battery materials, which will drive the continued growth of lithium carbonate demand. [12] - **Inventory**: On October 23, the weekly domestic lithium carbonate inventory was reported at 130,366 tons, a decrease of 2,292 tons ( - 1.7%) from the previous week. On October 24, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 28,699 tons, a 6.5% decrease during the week. [12] - **Cost**: On October 24, the SMM quoted the price of imported Australian SC6 lithium concentrate at 890 - 925 US dollars per ton, a 6.76% increase during the week. In September, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 521,000 tons, a 38.0% year - on - year and 10.6% month - on - month increase. From January to September, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 4.37 million tons, a 3.4% increase compared to the previous year. From January to September, the import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 8.5% year - on - year, while that from Africa decreased by 5.8% year - on - year (a decrease of 8.8% in the first eight months). The supply pressure of high - cost hard - rock mines has begun to ease recently, and the lithium concentrate previously held back by Western Australian mining enterprises will be released. It is expected that subsequent lithium ore imports will be significantly supplemented. [12] 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - On October 24, the morning quote of the Mysteel MMLC lithium carbonate spot index was 79,169 yuan, with a weekly increase of 4.81%. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 79,400 yuan. The closing price of LC2601 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 79,520 yuan, with a weekly increase of 4.94%. - The average discount price in the standard electric carbon trading market of the exchange was + 150 yuan. The net short position of the main contract of lithium carbonate was approximately 164,000 lots, an increase of 43,000 lots during the week. - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 2,250 yuan. The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide was 1,720 yuan. [20][23][27] 3.3 Supply Side - On October 24, SMM reported that the weekly domestic lithium carbonate production was 21,308 tons, a 1.1% increase from the previous week, and the weekly production continued to reach new highs. In September 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate production was 87,260 tons, a 2.4% increase from the previous month and a 51.7% increase year - on - year. The cumulative increase in the first nine months was 41.7% year - on - year. - In September, the production of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene was 55,950 tons, a 4.9% increase from the previous month and a 98.8% increase year - on - year. The cumulative increase in the first nine months was 74.7% year - on - year. The production of lithium carbonate from lithium mica was 11,580 tons, a 15.5% decrease from the previous month. The cumulative increase in the first nine months was 16.0% year - on - year. - In September, the production of lithium carbonate from salt lakes decreased by 9.5% to 11,960 tons. The cumulative increase from January to September was 9.1% year - on - year. Some salt lakes reduced production or stopped production, and the production of lithium carbonate from salt lakes decreased year - on - year during the peak season. Subsequently, Zangge Lithium Industry will resume production, and a new project of Salt Lake Co., Ltd. will be put into operation, resulting in limited reduction during the traditional production off - peak season. The production of lithium carbonate from the recycling end in September was 7,770 tons, a 6.6% increase from the previous month. The cumulative increase from January to September was 22.9% year - on - year. - In September 2025, China imported 19,596 tons of lithium carbonate, a 10.3% decrease from the previous month but a 20.5% increase year - on - year. From January to September, the total import volume of lithium carbonate in China was approximately 173,000 tons, a 5.2% increase year - on - year. In September 2025, Chile exported 15,900 tons of lithium carbonate, a 13% year - on - year and 6% month - on - month decrease. Among them, the export volume to China was 11,100 tons, a 14% decrease from the previous month. The reduction in South American exports alleviated the domestic import pressure from September to October. [33][36][39][42] 3.4 Demand Side - The battery sector dominates lithium demand. In 2024, it accounted for 87% of global consumption. The main growth point of future lithium salt consumption still depends on the growth of the lithium - battery industry, while the traditional application sectors have limited share and weak growth. The share of lithium used in sectors such as ceramic glass, lubricants, flux powders, air - conditioning, and medicine is only 5%. - In September 2025, the global sales of new energy vehicles were approximately 2.1 million units. From January to September, the cumulative year - on - year increase was 23.6%. From October 1 to 19, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market were 632,000 units, a 5% increase compared to the same period in October last year and a 2% increase compared to the same period last month. The penetration rate of new energy vehicle retail sales in the national passenger car market was 56.1%. It is estimated that the new energy vehicle retail sales in October will reach about 1.32 million, and the penetration rate is expected to increase to about 60%. - From January to August, the total sales of new energy vehicles in Europe were 2.324 million units, a 26.7% increase compared to the previous year. From January to August, the total sales of new energy vehicles in the United States were 1.063 million units, an 8.1% increase compared to the previous year. - According to the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in September, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 151.2 GWh, an 8.3% increase from the previous month and a 35.4% increase year - on - year. From January to September, the cumulative production of power and other batteries in China was 1,121.9 GWh, a 51.4% increase year - on - year. - From January to September, the cumulative production of domestic lithium iron phosphate increased by 47.0% year - on - year, while the production of domestic ternary materials increased by 15.4% year - on - year. October is the traditional peak season for battery materials, which will drive the continued growth of lithium carbonate demand. [46][49][52][55][58] 3.5 Inventory - On October 23, the weekly domestic lithium carbonate inventory was reported at 130,366 tons, a decrease of 2,292 tons ( - 1.7%) from the previous week. On October 24, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 28,699 tons, a 6.5% decrease during the week. - The inventory cycle of cathode materials is about one week. The inventory - to - sales ratio of power batteries is at a recent median level. The consumption of energy - storage batteries is strong, and the inventory is at a low level in recent years. [65][68] 3.6 Cost Side - On October 24, the SMM quoted the price of imported Australian SC6 lithium concentrate at 890 - 925 US dollars per ton, a 6.76% increase during the week. - In September, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 521,000 tons, a 38.0% year - on - year and 10.6% month - on - month increase. From January to September, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 4.37 million tons, a 3.4% increase compared to the previous year. From January to September, the import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 8.5% year - on - year, while that from Africa decreased by 5.8% year - on - year (a decrease of 8.8% in the first eight months). The supply pressure of high - cost hard - rock mines has begun to ease recently, and the lithium concentrate previously held back by Western Australian mining enterprises will be released. It is expected that subsequent lithium ore imports will be significantly supplemented. [76][79]