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碳酸锂周报:情绪高位-20250816
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-16 14:35
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The suspension of Ningde Times' Jianxiakeng lithium mine has ignited the bullish sentiment. As the peak season approaches in the second half of the year, the market expects a significant supply shortage of domestic lithium carbonate. The improvement of the lithium salt supply - demand pattern depends on the substantial reduction in the mining end. Recently, the supply side will be the focus of the market. The emotional fluctuations brought by news are significantly greater than the actual changes in the fundamentals. The rise in lithium prices will drive the supply of hard - rock resources in Africa, Australia and other places to fill the gap of domestic mines. The extent of domestic lithium carbonate destocking remains to be observed. Currently, the uncertainty of capital gaming is high. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see cautiously. Lithium carbonate holders can seize the entry point in a timely manner according to their own operations. In the future, attention should be paid to the industrial chain information and market atmosphere [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Period - spot Market**: On August 15, the morning quotation of the Mysteel MMLC lithium carbonate spot index was 82,832 yuan, with a weekly increase of 18.62%. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 83,000 yuan. On the same day, the closing price of LC2511 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 86,900 yuan, with a weekly increase of 12.92% [12][20]. - **Supply**: On August 14, the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate was 19,980 tons, a 2.2% increase from the previous week. The output of lithium carbonate from spodumene reached a record high, the operating rate of salt - lake lithium carbonate rebounded, and the output of lithium carbonate from lepidolite declined. The output in August was slightly revised downwards. In June, China imported about 10,200 tons of lithium carbonate from Chile, and the overseas supply pressure was relatively small in July. In July 2025, the export volume of lithium carbonate from Chile was 20,900 tons, a 43% increase from the previous month and a 4% increase year - on - year. Among them, 13,600 tons were exported to China, a 33% increase from the previous month and a 13% decrease year - on - year [12][32][41]. - **Demand**: In July 2025, the global sales of new energy vehicles were about 1.6 million, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 25.1% from January to July. In July 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were 1.243 million and 1.262 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 26.3% and 27.4% respectively. From January to July 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were 8.232 million and 8.22 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 39.2% and 38.5% respectively. In July, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 133.8 GWh, a 3.6% increase from the previous month and a 44.3% increase year - on - year. From January to July, the cumulative production of power and other batteries in China was 831.1 GWh, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 57.5%. The production of lithium iron phosphate in July increased by about 3.1% from the previous month. It is expected that the month - on - month increase in the output of cathode materials will be slightly larger in August [12][48][57]. - **Inventory**: On August 14, the weekly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate was reported at 142,256 tons, a decrease of 162 tons (- 0.1%) from the previous week. On August 15, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 23,485 tons, a 24.7% increase from the previous week [12][64]. - **Cost**: The ore price adjusted following the lithium salt price. On August 16, the quotation of SMM Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate was 960 - 1,020 US dollars per ton, a 26.1% increase from the previous week and an 18.5% increase in the past month. The pressure on high - cost hard - rock mines overseas has eased [12][75]. 2. Period - spot Market - On August 15, the MMLC lithium carbonate spot index quoted 82,832 yuan in the morning, up 18.62% week - on - week. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 83,000 yuan. The closing price of LC2511 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 86,900 yuan, up 12.92% week - on - week [20]. - The average discount of the exchange - standard electric carbon trading market is about - 450 yuan. The net short position of lithium carbonate contract holdings has increased [23]. - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,300 yuan, and the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide is 8,660 yuan [26][27]. 3. Supply Side - On August 14, the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate was 19,980 tons, a 2.2% increase from the previous week. The output of lithium carbonate from spodumene reached a record high, the operating rate of salt - lake lithium carbonate rebounded, and the output of lithium carbonate from lepidolite declined. The output in August was slightly revised downwards. In July 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate output was 81,530 tons, a 4.4% increase from the previous month and a 25.5% increase year - on - year, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.6% in the first seven months [32]. - In July, the output of lithium carbonate from spodumene was 44,810 tons, a 13.6% increase from the previous month and a 47.9% increase year - on - year, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 73.8% in the first seven months. The output of lithium carbonate from lepidolite in July was 18,000 tons, a 7.6% decrease from the previous month, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.0% in the first seven months [35]. - The output of salt - lake lithium carbonate in July decreased by 7.6% to 12,340 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 15.6% from January to July. Some salt - lake mines reduced production or stopped production, and the output of salt - lake lithium carbonate declined during the peak season. The output of recycled lithium carbonate in July increased by 9.8% to 6,380 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.4% from January to July [38]. - In June 2025, China imported 17,698 tons of lithium carbonate, a 16.3% decrease from the previous month and a 9.6% decrease year - on - year. Among them, 11,853 tons were imported from Chile and 5,094 tons from Argentina. The total import of lithium carbonate in China from January to June was about 118,000 tons, a 10.7% increase year - on - year. In June, Chile exported about 10,200 tons of lithium carbonate to China, and the overseas supply pressure was relatively small in July. In July 2025, the export volume of Chilean lithium carbonate was 20,900 tons, a 43% increase from the previous month and a 4% increase year - on - year. Among them, 13,600 tons were exported to China, a 33% increase from the previous month and a 13% decrease year - on - year [41]. 4. Demand Side - The battery field dominates lithium demand. In 2024, it accounted for 87% of global consumption. The main growth point of future lithium salt consumption still depends on the growth of the lithium - battery industry, while the traditional application fields have limited proportions and weak growth [45]. - In July 2025, the global sales of new energy vehicles were about 1.6 million, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 25.1% from January to July. In July 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were 1.243 million and 1.262 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 26.3% and 27.4% respectively. From January to July 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were 8.232 million and 8.22 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 39.2% and 38.5% respectively [48]. - The total sales of new energy vehicles in Europe from January to June were 1.191 million, a 24.8% increase compared to the previous year. The total sales of new energy vehicles in the United States from January to June were 761,000, a 6.4% increase compared to the previous year [51]. - In July, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 133.8 GWh, a 3.6% increase from the previous month and a 44.3% increase year - on - year. From January to July, the cumulative production of power and other batteries in China was 831.1 GWh, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 57.5%. The production of lithium iron phosphate in July increased by about 3.1% from the previous month. It is expected that the month - on - month increase in the output of cathode materials will be slightly larger in August [54][57]. 5. Inventory - On August 14, the weekly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate was reported at 142,256 tons, a decrease of 162 tons (- 0.1%) from the previous week. On August 15, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 23,485 tons, a 24.7% increase from the previous week [64]. - The inventory cycle of cathode materials is about one week. The sales - to - inventory ratio of power batteries is at a recent median, and the inventory of energy - storage batteries is at a recent low due to the rush for exports [67]. 6. Cost Side - The ore price adjusted following the lithium salt price. On August 16, the quotation of SMM Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate was 960 - 1,020 US dollars per ton, a 26.1% increase from the previous week and an 18.5% increase in the past month [75]. - In June, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 428,000 tons, a 18.1% decrease year - on - year and a 17.2% decrease from the previous month. From January to June, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 2.806 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.2%. In the first half of 2025, the import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 6.1% year - on - year, and the import from Africa decreased by 13.0% year - on - year. The supply pressure of high - cost hard - rock mines began to ease in July [78].
枣庄|15分钟,走完一条产业链
Da Zhong Ri Bao· 2025-08-15 02:04
Core Insights - The Zaozhuang High-tech Zone lithium battery industrial park has established a complete industrial chain, allowing companies to access all necessary suppliers within a 15-minute drive, enhancing operational efficiency [2][4] - The park is a key engine for the city's lithium battery industry, encompassing upstream materials, midstream battery cells, and downstream applications [2][3] - The industrial energy storage cabinet developed by Shenzhou Xingheng can store 235 kWh and offers both grid-connected and off-grid functionalities, indicating a shift in energy storage from a cost center to a profit-generating asset [2][3] Company Developments - Shandong Yaoqian Electronic Technology focuses on small and medium-sized power lithium batteries and energy storage systems, benefiting from a tailored support system that helps companies expand into international markets [3] - Ding Teng New Energy, a joint venture, is addressing safety and low-temperature performance issues in sodium-ion batteries, achieving over 70% discharge at -40°C and over 50% at -50°C, with a cycle life exceeding 6000 times [3][4] - The Zaozhuang High-tech Zone lithium battery industrial park hosts both leading enterprises with over 1 billion yuan in output and emerging companies, fostering a diverse ecosystem [3][4] Strategic Initiatives - The park's strategy focuses on precise investment to strengthen the industrial chain, including attracting both major players and supporting enterprises to create a complete lithium battery ecosystem [4] - Future initiatives will include mapping the lithium battery industry, chain-based investment targeting upstream and downstream partners, and providing dedicated support for each company to enhance their growth [4]
碳酸锂月报:矿端持续扰动-20250808
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 14:45
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Lithium carbonate is gradually diverging from the trend of active varieties. The improvement of the lithium salt supply - demand pattern depends on the substantial reduction in the mining end. As the peak season approaches in the second half of the year, the expected adjustment of large - scale mineral supply has a significant impact on the market. In the past two days, under the influence of news from Jiangxi mines, bullish sentiment has dominated the market. Currently, most of the news from the mining end cannot be verified, and the sustainability of supply reduction needs to be observed. Recently, the sentiment fluctuations brought by the news have been frequent, and the uncertainty of capital game is relatively high. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see cautiously. Lithium carbonate holders can seize the entry points according to their own operations. In the future, attention should be paid to industrial chain information and market atmosphere [12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Data**: On August 8, the morning quote of the Wuganglian Lithium Carbonate Spot Index (MMLC) was 69,832 yuan, with a weekly increase of 1.45% and an increase of 11.5% in the past month. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 70,000 yuan. On the same day, the closing price of LC2511 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 76,960 yuan, with a weekly increase of 11.2% [12] - **Supply**: On August 7, the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate by SMM was 19,556 tons, a 13.2% increase from the previous week. The production of lithium carbonate from spodumene reached a record high, and the operating rates of lithium carbonate from lepidolite and salt lakes rebounded. The domestic lithium carbonate production returned to a high level. In June, about 10,200 tons of lithium carbonate was exported from Chile to China, and the overseas supply pressure was relatively small in July. In July 2025, the export volume of lithium carbonate from Chile was 20,900 tons, a 43% increase from the previous month and a 4% increase year - on - year. Among them, 13,600 tons were exported to China, a 33% increase from the previous month and a 13% decrease year - on - year [12] - **Demand**: The Passenger Car Association predicts that the retail sales of new energy vehicles in July will reach about 1.01 million, and the penetration rate is expected to increase to 54.6%. From January to June, the cumulative global sales of new energy vehicles increased by 26.2% year - on - year. In July, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased by about 3.1% from the previous month. In August, the month - on - month increase in the production of cathode materials is expected to be slightly larger [12] - **Inventory**: On August 7, the weekly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate was reported at 142,418 tons, a 692 - ton (0.5%) increase from the previous week. With the recovery of supply, continuous inventory reduction has not occurred. On August 7, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 16,443 tons, and about 10,900 tons of new warehouse receipts were registered in August [12] - **Cost**: The ore price adjusted following the lithium salt price. On August 8, the quotation of SMM Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate was 750 - 820 US dollars per ton, a 5.37% increase from the previous week and an 18.5% increase in the past month. The supply pressure of high - cost hard - rock mines began to ease in July, and the process of resource - end clearance was postponed [12] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Trend**: On August 8, the morning quote of the Wuganglian Lithium Carbonate Spot Index (MMLC) was 69,832 yuan, with a weekly increase of 1.45% and an 11.5% increase in the past month. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 70,000 yuan. On the same day, the closing price of LC2511 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 76,960 yuan, with a weekly increase of 11.2% [20] - **Market Features**: The average discount of the exchange - standard electric carbon trading market is about - 100 yuan. The net short position of lithium carbonate contract holdings increased [23] - **Price Difference**: The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,100 yuan. The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide is 5,910 yuan [26] 3.3 Supply End - **Domestic Production**: On August 7, the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate by SMM was 19,556 tons, a 13.2% increase from the previous week. The production of lithium carbonate from spodumene reached a record high, and the operating rates of lithium carbonate from lepidolite and salt lakes rebounded. In July 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, a 4.4% increase from the previous month, a 25.5% increase year - on - year, and a 40.6% cumulative increase in the first seven months year - on - year [31] - **Production by Source**: In July, the production of lithium carbonate from spodumene was 44,810 tons, a 13.6% increase from the previous month and a 47.9% increase year - on - year, with a 73.8% cumulative increase in the first seven months year - on - year. The production of lithium carbonate from lepidolite was 18,000 tons, a 7.6% decrease from the previous month, with a 21.0% cumulative increase in the first seven months year - on - year. The production of lithium carbonate from salt lakes decreased by 7.6% to 12,340 tons in July, with a 15.6% cumulative increase in the first seven months year - on - year. The production of lithium carbonate from the recycling end increased by 9.8% to 6,380 tons in July, with a 17.4% cumulative increase in the first seven months year - on - year [34][37] - **Imports**: In June 2025, China imported 17,698 tons of lithium carbonate, a 16.3% decrease from the previous month and a 9.6% decrease year - on - year. Among them, 11,853 tons were imported from Chile and 5,094 tons from Argentina. From January to June, the total import volume of lithium carbonate in China was about 118,000 tons, a 10.7% increase year - on - year. In June, about 10,200 tons of lithium carbonate was exported from Chile to China, and the overseas supply pressure was relatively small in July. In July 2025, the export volume of lithium carbonate from Chile was 20,900 tons, a 43% increase from the previous month and a 4% increase year - on - year. Among them, 13,600 tons were exported to China, a 33% increase from the previous month and a 13% decrease year - on - year [40] 3.4 Demand End - **Consumption Structure**: The battery field dominates lithium demand, accounting for 87% of global consumption in 2024. The future growth point of lithium salt consumption still relies on the growth of the lithium - battery industry, while the traditional application fields have limited proportion and weak growth. The proportion of lithium used in fields such as ceramic glass, lubricants, flux powder, air - conditioning, and medicine is only 5% [44] - **New Energy Vehicle Sales**: The Passenger Car Association predicts that the retail sales of new energy vehicles in July will reach about 1.01 million, and the penetration rate is expected to increase to 54.6%. From January to June, the global sales of new energy vehicles increased by 26.2% year - on - year. From January to June, the total sales of new energy vehicles in Europe were 1.191 million, a 24.8% increase from the previous year. From January to June, the total sales of new energy vehicles in the United States were 761,000, a 6.4% increase from the previous year [47][50] - **Battery Production and Installation**: In June, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 129.2 GWh, a 4.6% increase from the previous month and a 51.4% increase year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative production of power and other batteries in China was 697.3 GWh, a 60.4% cumulative increase year - on - year. In June, the installation volume of power batteries in China was 58.2 GWh, a 1.9% increase from the previous month and a 35.9% increase year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative installation volume of power batteries in China was 299.6 GWh, a 47.3% cumulative increase year - on - year [53] - **Cathode Material Production**: In July, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased by about 3.1% from the previous month. In August, the month - on - month increase in the production of cathode materials is expected to be slightly larger [56] 3.5 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: On August 7, the weekly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate was reported at 142,418 tons, a 692 - ton (0.5%) increase from the previous week. With the recovery of supply, continuous inventory reduction has not occurred. On August 7, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 16,443 tons, and about 10,900 tons of new warehouse receipts were registered in August [63] - **Other Inventory Features**: The inventory cycle of cathode materials is about one week. The sales - to - inventory ratio of power batteries is at a recent median, and the inventory of energy - storage batteries is at a recent low due to export rush [66] 3.6 Cost End - **Ore Price**: The ore price adjusted following the lithium salt price. On August 8, the quotation of SMM Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate was 750 - 820 US dollars per ton, a 5.37% increase from the previous week and an 18.5% increase in the past month. The supply pressure of high - cost hard - rock mines began to ease in July, and the process of resource - end clearance was postponed [74] - **Lithium Concentrate Imports**: In June, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 428,000 tons, a 18.1% decrease year - on - year and a 17.2% decrease from the previous month. From January to June, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 2.806 million tons, a 0.2% cumulative decrease year - on - year. In the first half of 2025, the import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 6.1% year - on - year, and the import of lithium concentrate from Africa decreased by 13.0% year - on - year [77]
碳酸锂周报:关注供给回调持续性-20250802
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-02 14:29
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The risk level of the previous continuous rally in the commodity market has increased, and fear of high prices has spread. This week, varieties such as coking coal, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, glass, and soda ash have all significantly corrected. The improvement of the lithium carbonate fundamentals depends on the substantial reduction in the mining end. Australian mines have successively announced quarterly reports, and Greenbush and Pilbara will increase production in the new fiscal year. The subsequent market attention will still focus on the reduction and suspension of production of domestic resources in Jiangxi and Qinghai. This week, the operating rates of lithium mica and salt lake lithium carbonate have dropped rapidly. There is an expectation of repair in the supply - demand relationship before the peak season, which is expected to support the bottom of lithium prices, but the sustainability of supply reduction remains to be observed. Recently, the uncertainty brought by capital games is high, and there is a certain linkage effect among active varieties. Pay attention to the overall atmosphere change in the commodity market in the future. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see cautiously, and lithium carbonate holders can seize the entry point in a timely manner according to their own operations [11] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - On August 1st, the morning quote of the Wuganglian Lithium Carbonate Spot Index (MMLC) was 68,832 yuan, a weekly decline of 10.41%. Among them, the average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 69,000 yuan. On the same day, the closing price of LC2509 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 68,920 yuan, a decline of 14.4% within the week [12] - This week, the domestic lithium carbonate output by SMM was 17,268 tons, a 7.3% decrease compared to last week. In July 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate output was 81,530 tons, a 4.4% increase compared to the previous month, a 25.5% increase year - on - year, and a cumulative 40.6% increase in the first seven months year - on - year. In June 2025, China imported 17,698 tons of lithium carbonate, a 16.3% decrease compared to the previous month and a 9.6% decrease year - on - year. Among them, 11,853 tons were imported from Chile and 5,094 tons from Argentina. From January to June, the total import volume of lithium carbonate in China was about 118,000 tons, a 10.7% increase year - on - year. In June, Chile exported about 10,200 tons of lithium carbonate to China, and the overseas supply pressure was relatively small in July. In the first half of the year, Chile's exports of lithium carbonate to China decreased by 17% year - on - year, while the exports of lithium sulfate increased by 172%. The export volume of lithium carbonate + lithium sulfate in the first half of the year was basically the same (calculated by LCE) [12] - The Passenger Car Association expects that the retail sales of new energy vehicles in July can reach about 1.01 million, and the penetration rate is expected to increase to 54.6%. From January to June, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles globally increased by 26.2% year - on - year. It is expected that the output of cathode materials will increase slightly in July compared to the previous month, and according to Xinluo Consulting's research, the output of cathode materials in August will increase by 2.6% month - on - month [12] - On July 31st, the domestic weekly inventory of lithium carbonate was reported at 141,726 tons, a decrease of 1,444 tons (-1.0%) compared to last week. The downward supply has reversed the inventory growth trend. On August 1st, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 6,605 tons [12] - The ore price has adjusted following the lithium salt price. On August 1st, the quoted price of SMM Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate was 720 - 770 US dollars per ton, a 13.4% decrease compared to the previous week. In June, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 428,000 tons, a 18.1% decrease year - on - year and a 17.2% decrease compared to the previous month. From January to June, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 2.806 million tons, a cumulative 0.2% decrease year - on - year. In the first half of 2025, the import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 6.1% year - on - year, while the import from Africa decreased by 13.0% year - on - year. With the rebound of lithium prices, the supply pressure of high - cost hard - rock mines has eased in July [12] 2. Futures and Spot Market - On August 1st, the morning quote of the Wuganglian Lithium Carbonate Spot Index (MMLC) was 68,832 yuan, a weekly decline of 10.41%. Among them, the average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 69,000 yuan. On the same day, the closing price of LC2509 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 68,920 yuan, a decline of 14.4% within the week [20] - The average discount of the exchange - standard electric carbon trading market is about - 100 yuan. The net short position of lithium carbonate contract positions has declined [23] - The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,100 yuan. The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide is 5,680 yuan [26] 3. Supply Side - This week, the domestic lithium carbonate output by SMM was 17,268 tons, a 7.3% decrease compared to last week. Some manufacturers have carried out maintenance or production cuts, and the operating rates of lithium mica and salt lake lithium carbonate have dropped rapidly, resulting in a decline in domestic lithium carbonate output. In July 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate output was 81,530 tons, a 4.4% increase compared to the previous month, a 25.5% increase year - on - year, and a cumulative 40.6% increase in the first seven months year - on - year [31] - In July, the output of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene was 44,810 tons, a 13.6% increase compared to the previous month and a 47.9% increase year - on - year. The cumulative output in the first seven months increased by 73.8% year - on - year. In July, the output of lithium carbonate from lithium mica was 18,000 tons, a 7.6% decrease compared to the previous month, and the cumulative output in the first seven months increased by 21.0% year - on - year [34] - In July, the output of lithium carbonate from salt lakes decreased by 7.6% to 12,340 tons, and the cumulative output from January to July increased by 15.6% year - on - year. Some salt lakes have reduced or suspended production, and the output of salt lake lithium carbonate has declined during the peak season. In July, the output of lithium carbonate from the recycling end increased by 9.8% month - on - month to 6,380 tons, and the cumulative output from January to July increased by 17.4% year - on - year [37] - In June 2025, China imported 17,698 tons of lithium carbonate, a 16.3% decrease compared to the previous month and a 9.6% decrease year - on - year. Among them, 11,853 tons were imported from Chile and 5,094 tons from Argentina. From January to June, the total import volume of lithium carbonate in China was about 118,000 tons, a 10.7% increase year - on - year. In June, Chile exported about 10,200 tons of lithium carbonate to China, and the overseas supply pressure was relatively small in July. In the first half of the year, Chile's exports of lithium carbonate to China decreased by 17% year - on - year, while the exports of lithium sulfate increased by 172%. The export volume of lithium carbonate + lithium sulfate in the first half of the year was basically the same (calculated by LCE) [40] 4. Demand Side - The battery field dominates lithium demand. In 2024, it accounted for 87% of global consumption. Future growth in lithium salt consumption will rely on the growth of the lithium - battery industry, while traditional application areas have limited growth [44] - The Passenger Car Association expects that the retail sales of new energy vehicles in July can reach about 1.01 million, and the penetration rate is expected to increase to 54.6%. From January to June, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles globally increased by 26.2% year - on - year [47] - From January to June, the total sales of new energy vehicles in Europe were 1.191 million, a 24.8% increase compared to last year. From January to June, the total sales of new energy vehicles in the United States were 761,000, a 6.4% increase compared to last year [50] - In June, the combined output of power and other batteries in China was 129.2 GWh, a 4.6% increase compared to the previous month and a 51.4% increase year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative output of power and other batteries in China was 697.3 GWh, a cumulative 60.4% increase year - on - year. In June, the installed capacity of power batteries in China was 58.2 GWh, a 1.9% increase compared to the previous month and a 35.9% increase year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative installed capacity of power batteries in China was 299.6 GWh, a cumulative 47.3% increase year - on - year [53] - In June, the output of lithium iron phosphate decreased slightly by 0.2% month - on - month, and the output in the first half of the year increased by 47.8% year - on - year. It is expected that the output of cathode materials will increase slightly in July compared to the previous month, and according to Xinluo Consulting's research, the output of cathode materials in August will increase by 2.6% month - on - month [56] 5. Inventory - On July 31st, the domestic weekly inventory of lithium carbonate was reported at 141,726 tons, a decrease of 1,444 tons (-1.0%) compared to last week. The downward supply has reversed the inventory growth trend. On August 1st, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 6,605 tons [63] - The inventory cycle of cathode materials is about one week. The inventory - to - sales ratio of power batteries is at a recent median, and the inventory of energy - storage batteries is at a low level in recent years due to the rush for exports [66] 6. Cost Side - The ore price has adjusted following the lithium salt price. On August 1st, the quoted price of SMM Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate was 720 - 770 US dollars per ton, a 13.4% decrease compared to the previous week [74] - In June, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 428,000 tons, a 18.1% decrease year - on - year and a 17.2% decrease compared to the previous month. From January to June, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 2.806 million tons, a cumulative 0.2% decrease year - on - year. In the first half of 2025, the import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 6.1% year - on - year, while the import from Africa decreased by 13.0% year - on - year. With the rebound of lithium prices, the supply pressure of high - cost hard - rock mines has eased in July [77]
碳酸锂周报:情绪高涨,谨慎为上-20250726
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-26 12:39
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Mineral end news disturbances have intensified the bullish sentiment, leading to consecutive sharp increases in lithium carbonate contracts on Thursday and Friday. Long - position funds are trading on the strong expectation of supply - demand recovery, but the actual fundamentals have not yet reversed. The downstream is skeptical about the sustainability of lithium prices, and the spot market is operating cautiously. Given the increased risk of continuous rallies in the commodity market and potential contagion of fear on Monday, it is recommended that speculative funds observe cautiously, and lithium carbonate holders can seize entry points according to their own operations. Attention should be paid to the upcoming earnings reports of overseas mining companies and changes in the overall atmosphere of the industrial chain and commodity market [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot and Futures Market**: On July 25, the MMLC lithium carbonate spot index reported 76,832 yuan in the morning, a weekly increase of 17.6%. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 77,000 yuan. The closing price of LC2509 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 80,520 yuan, a weekly increase of 15.1% [12]. - **Supply**: This week, the domestic lithium carbonate output was 18,630 tons, a 2.5% decrease from last week due to some manufacturers' maintenance. In July, supply is expected to remain strong, with a 6 - 7% month - on - month increase. In June 2025, China imported 17,698 tons of lithium carbonate, a 16.3% month - on - month and 9.6% year - on - year decrease. From January to June, the total import volume was about 118,000 tons, a 10.7% year - on - year increase. In July, the overseas supply pressure is relatively small [12]. - **Demand**: The Passenger Car Association expects the retail sales of new energy vehicles in July to reach about 1.01 million, with the penetration rate expected to rise to 54.6%. From January to June, the global new energy vehicle sales increased by 26.2% year - on - year [12]. - **Inventory**: On July 24, the domestic weekly lithium carbonate inventory was 143,170 tons, a 0.4% increase from last week. On July 25, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 11,996 tons, a 17.2% weekly increase [12]. - **Cost**: On July 25, the price of imported Australian SC6 lithium concentrate was 840 - 880 US dollars per ton, a 17.8% weekly increase. The rebound of domestic lithium carbonate spot prices has driven the recovery of ore prices. The profits of salt plants that obtained low - cost ore sources have been significantly repaired, releasing their hedging demand. In June, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 428,000 tons, an 18.1% year - on - year and 17.2% month - on - month decrease. From January to June, the cumulative import was 2.806 million tons, a 0.2% year - on - year decrease. In the first half of 2025, the import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 6.1% year - on - year, while that from Africa decreased by 13.0% year - on - year, and the supply pressure of high - cost hard - rock ore eased in July [12]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - On July 25, the MMLC lithium carbonate spot index reported 76,832 yuan in the morning, a weekly increase of 17.6%, and the average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 77,000 yuan. The closing price of LC2509 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 80,520 yuan, a weekly increase of 15.1% [12][20]. - The average discount in the standard electric carbon trading market of the exchange is about - 350 yuan, and the net short position of lithium carbonate contracts has increased significantly [23]. - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1,650 yuan, and the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide is 9,780 yuan [26]. 3.3 Supply Side - This week, the domestic lithium carbonate output was 18,630 tons, a 2.5% decrease from last week. In June 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate output was 78,090 tons, an 8.3% month - on - month and 17.9% year - on - year increase, with a 43.9% cumulative year - on - year increase in the first half of the year. In July, supply is expected to remain strong, with a 6 - 7% month - on - month increase [31]. - In June, the output of lithium carbonate from spodumene was 39,450 tons, an 11.3% month - on - month and 32.5% year - on - year increase, with a 73.8% cumulative year - on - year increase from January to June. The output of lithium carbonate from lepidolite was 19,480 tons, an 8.6% month - on - month increase, with a 22.1% cumulative year - on - year increase from January to June [34]. - In June, the output of lithium carbonate from salt lakes increased by 7.1% to 13,350 tons, with a 20.9% cumulative year - on - year increase from January to June. The output of lithium carbonate from the recycling end was 5,810 tons, a 6.7% month - on - month decrease, with an 18.5% cumulative year - on - year increase from January to June [37]. - In June 2025, China imported 17,698 tons of lithium carbonate, a 16.3% month - on - month and 9.6% year - on - year decrease. From January to June, the total import volume was about 118,000 tons, a 10.7% year - on - year increase. In June, Chile exported about 10,200 tons of lithium carbonate to China, and the overseas supply pressure in July is relatively small. In the first half of the year, the total export volume of lithium carbonate + lithium sulfate from Chile to China was basically the same (calculated by LCE) [40]. 3.4 Demand Side - The battery field dominates lithium demand, accounting for 87% of global consumption in 2024. The growth of the lithium - salt consumption mainly depends on the development of the lithium - battery industry, while the traditional application fields have limited growth [44]. - In June, the production of new energy passenger vehicles in China reached 1.2 million, a 28.3% year - on - year and 2.0% month - on - month increase. From January to June, the cumulative production was 6.457 million, a 38.7% increase. The wholesale sales in June were 1.241 million, a 27.0% year - on - year and 1.6% month - on - month increase. From January to June, the cumulative wholesale sales were 6.447 million, a 37.4% increase. From January to June, the global new energy vehicle sales increased by 26.2% year - on - year [47]. - From January to May, the total sales of new energy vehicles in Europe were 952,000, a 27.7% year - on - year increase, and in the United States were 648,000, an 8.9% year - on - year increase [50]. - In June, the total output of power and other batteries in China was 129.2 GWh, a 4.6% month - on - month and 51.4% year - on - year increase. From January to June, the cumulative output was 697.3 GWh, a 60.4% increase. The installed capacity of power batteries in June was 58.2 GWh, a 1.9% month - on - month and 35.9% year - on - year increase. From January to June, the cumulative installed capacity was 299.6 GWh, a 47.3% increase [53]. - In June, the output of lithium iron phosphate decreased slightly by 0.2% month - on - month, with a 47.8% year - on - year increase in the first half of the year. In July, the output of cathode materials is expected to increase slightly month - on - month [56]. 3.5 Inventory - On July 24, the domestic weekly lithium carbonate inventory was 143,170 tons, a 0.4% increase from last week. The inventory is still increasing due to the high domestic lithium carbonate output. On July 25, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 11,996 tons, a 17.2% weekly increase [63]. - The inventory cycle of cathode materials is about one week. The sales - to - inventory ratio of power batteries is at a recent median, and the inventory of energy - storage batteries is at a low level in recent years due to export rush [66]. 3.6 Cost Side - On July 25, the price of imported Australian SC6 lithium concentrate was 840 - 880 US dollars per ton, a 17.8% weekly increase. The rebound of domestic lithium carbonate spot prices has driven the recovery of ore prices. The profits of salt plants that obtained low - cost ore sources have been significantly repaired, releasing their hedging demand [74]. - In June, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 428,000 tons, an 18.1% year - on - year and 17.2% month - on - month decrease. From January to June, the cumulative import was 2.806 million tons, a 0.2% year - on - year decrease. In the first half of 2025, the import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 6.1% year - on - year, while that from Africa decreased by 13.0% year - on - year, and the supply pressure of high - cost hard - rock ore eased in July [77].
8000吨碳酸锂项目落地江西上饶
起点锂电· 2025-07-07 10:11
Event Overview - The fifth "Starting Point Two-Wheeled Vehicle Battery Swap Conference" and "Lightweight Power Battery Technology Summit Forum" will be held on July 11, 2025, in Shenzhen [2] - The theme of the event is "Swap City, Smart Two-Wheelers" [2] Industry Development - Jiangxi Province is actively expanding its lithium battery industry by leveraging its upstream lithium resource advantages, forming three major lithium battery industry clusters in Yichun, Xinyu, and Ganzhou, along with other regional development areas [2] - The city of Shangrao has attracted over 70 automotive parts companies, focusing on core components such as engines, batteries, motors, and electronic controls for the new energy vehicle industry [2] Project Updates - A new lithium carbonate project by Jiangxi Jiuhui New Materials Co., Ltd. is set to produce 8,000 tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate annually, with an investment of 40 million RMB [4] - The environmental impact report for this project was publicly announced on July 3, 2025, with a public review period until July 16, 2025 [4] - Additionally, the company has been involved in lithium battery recycling and energy storage projects, with a total investment of 15 million RMB for a project that can process 40,000 tons of retired lithium batteries annually [6] Company Profiles - Jiangxi Jiuhui New Materials Co., Ltd. was established in August 2023, focusing on the manufacturing of chemical raw materials and products, with a registered capital of 50 million RMB [4] - Jiangxi Baite Rui New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. was founded in February 2024, specializing in the recycling and secondary utilization of used power batteries, with a registered capital of 10 million RMB [6]
2025CIBF锂电产业链分布图免费领取,展位号1B133
鑫椤锂电· 2025-05-15 01:26
Group 1 - The 17th Shenzhen International Battery Technology Exchange and Exhibition (CIBF2025) is set to take place from May 15 to May 17, 2025, at the Shenzhen International Convention and Exhibition Center [5] - Xinluo Lithium Battery will showcase at booth 1B133 in Hall 1, providing attendees with an opportunity to explore the latest developments in the lithium battery industry [5] - Attendees can receive a free 2025 lithium battery industry distribution map at Xinluo Lithium Battery's booth, which includes key information on global lithium battery industry clusters, development status, company distribution, and technology trends [4][5] Group 2 - The distribution map is a valuable tool for industry professionals to gain insights into the market and seize opportunities within the lithium battery sector [4]
2025CIBF独家福利:鑫椤锂电产业分布图免费领取!
鑫椤锂电· 2025-05-14 06:34
Group 1 - The article highlights the upcoming 17th Shenzhen International Battery Technology Exchange Conference/Exhibition (CIBF2025) as a significant event for the global battery industry [1][3] - Xinluo Lithium Battery is presenting a valuable gift at the event: a free 2025 Lithium Battery Industry Distribution Map, which provides insights into the industry's landscape [4][9] - The distribution map covers major lithium battery industry hubs globally, including China, North America, Europe, Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia, showcasing development status, company distribution, and technological trends [4][5] Group 2 - The distribution map offers a global perspective, allowing businesses to understand regional industry characteristics and advantages, aiding in international strategic planning [5] - It includes in-depth analysis combining the latest market data and industry dynamics, covering aspects from raw material supply to battery manufacturing and market applications [8] - Xinluo Lithium Battery is recognized as an authoritative data provider and industry trendsetter, offering decision-making support through professional teams and precise data collection [10] Group 3 - Attendees can easily obtain the distribution map by visiting Xinluo Lithium Battery's booth (1B133) during the exhibition from May 15 to 17, 2025, at the Shenzhen International Convention and Exhibition Center [7][11] - The process to receive the map is straightforward: visit the exhibition, locate the booth, and express the intent to receive the map to the staff [11]
2025CIBF独家福利:鑫椤锂电产业分布图免费领取!
鑫椤锂电· 2025-05-12 07:15
Group 1 - The article highlights the upcoming 17th Shenzhen International Battery Technology Exchange and Exhibition (CIBF2025), which will showcase global battery industry elites and innovative technologies [1][3] - Xinluo Lithium Battery is presenting a valuable gift at the exhibition: a free 2025 Lithium Battery Industry Distribution Map, which provides insights into the global lithium battery industry [4][9] - The distribution map covers major lithium battery industry hubs worldwide, including China, North America, Europe, Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia, detailing the development status, company distribution, and technological trends in these regions [4][5] Group 2 - The distribution map is not just a geographical marker; it combines the latest market data and industry dynamics, offering a comprehensive view of the lithium battery industry from raw material supply to battery manufacturing and market applications [8] - Attendees can receive the distribution map for free at Xinluo Lithium Battery's booth 1B133 during the CIBF2025 exhibition, with no prior appointment or payment required [9][11] - Xinluo Lithium Battery is recognized as an authoritative data provider and industry trendsetter, offering decision-making support through professional teams and in-depth analysis [10]
11亿元!四川又一锂电池项目产品下线
起点锂电· 2025-05-08 10:39
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent launch of the manganese lithium battery production line by Hongli New Energy (Chengdu) Co., Ltd., marking an expansion in lithium battery production capacity in the Qionglai region [1][2]. Company Overview - Hongli New Energy (Chengdu) Co., Ltd. is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Henan Hongli New Energy Co., Ltd., established in 2015, focusing on manganese-based lithium-ion batteries and their cathode materials [2]. - The company primarily produces cylindrical batteries, including models such as 18650 and 14500, with applications in various sectors like power tools, toys, mobile power sources, and smart home devices, exporting to regions including the USA, Europe, and Southeast Asia [2]. Production Capacity - Hongli New Energy has established three production bases in Xinxiang, Jiaozuo, and Chengdu, with a total annual production capacity of 10 GWh for lithium-ion batteries and 20,000 tons for manganese lithium [3]. - The Chengdu project, which recently commenced production, aims to achieve a production value of 30 million yuan in Q2 and targets full production by August [3]. Industry Context - Sichuan province is recognized as a significant lithium battery industry hub in Southwest China, benefiting from abundant mineral resources and transportation advantages, attracting numerous lithium battery enterprises [3]. - The article mentions another project by Chuangming New Energy in Mianyang, which involves a large cylindrical battery project with a total investment of 12 billion yuan, highlighting the growing investment in the lithium battery sector [3]. Product Advantages - Chuangming New Energy's cylindrical battery products are noted for their high safety, energy density, long cycle life, and low internal resistance, making them suitable for various applications including transportation, energy storage, and aerospace [4]. - The use of full-tab technology in their cylindrical batteries significantly reduces internal resistance and heat generation, enhancing overall performance [5]. Market Position - According to a report by Qidian Research Institute, global shipments of cylindrical batteries are projected to reach 151.2 GWh in 2024, representing a 24% year-on-year increase, with Chuangming New Energy ranking tenth in the industry by shipment volume [5].