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固定收益部市场日报-20260302
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2026-03-02 07:01
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Maintain a buy rating on VDNWDL 9 Perp despite weaker 1HFY26 results, considering the higher certainty of coupon payments [7] - The US-Israel bombing against Iran may lead to lower UST rates and wider credit spreads in the Middle East, with varying impacts on different credit segments [13] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - On last Friday, SUMITR Float 29s tightened 6bps, SUMITR Float 31s tightened 15bps; fixed-rate SUMITR 29s were unchanged, SUMITR 31s tightened 6bps, and SUMITR 36s widened 5bps [2] - Chinese IG space: belly-to-long-end TMT names LENOVO/XIAOMI/JD/KUAISH/MEITUA widened 1 - 6bps, while AMC space held firm; Taiwanese lifers traded 1 - 5bps wider; in HK, LINREI and HKE 36 softened up to 5bps wider; NWDEVL/VDNWDL complex leaked up to 1.1pts; NWD will defer coupon payment on USD1.3bn NWDEVL 6.25 Perp due on 7 Mar'26, and its 1H26 core operating profit dropped 18% yoy to HKD3.64bn (cUSD465.3mn) [2] - Chinese properties: FTLNHD 27 rose 1.8pts, FTLNHD 26 was 0.1pt higher, FTLNHD 29/FUTLAN 28 were 0.3 - 0.4pt lower; VNKRLE 27 - 29 dropped 2.6 - 2.9pts [2] - SE Asian space: long-end PETMK widened 6bps, OCBCSP 36 widened 3bps, GLPSP 4.5 Perp lost 1.0pts, ReNew Energy complex edged 0.1 - 0.3pt higher, VLLPM 27 - 29 recovered 1.0 - 1.4pts, SMCGL Perps were unchanged to 0.2pt higher [2] - KR space: POHANG/HYNMTR/LGENSO traded 2 - 4bps wider, lower-spread/bank-guaranteed names SKBTAM/KHFC/HYUELE closed 1 - 3bps wider, and the new issue DAESEC 31 softened to 5bps wider [2] - JP space: heavy selling on bank 10yr fixed tranches MIZUHO/SUMIBK/MUFG, which widened up to 8bps; insurance subs were 0.1pt weaker, led by RESLIF 6.875 Perp; Yankee AT1s were down by 0.4 - 0.9pt, led by UBS 7 Perp/BNP 6.875 Perp/INTNED 6.5 Perp [2] - FRN space: solid buying support for CCAMCL and EU/JP/AU bank FRNs [2] - This morning, AT1s and JP insurance subs were down another 0.1 - 0.5pt; Asian IG space initially widened 5 - 10bps and later recovered 2 - 3bps; heavy selling on XIAOMIs and TW lifers, and two-way flows on Middle Eastern names; FTLNHD 27 edged 0.3pt higher, while VLLPM 29/ACPM 4.85 Perp were 1.2 - 1.7pts lower [3] - In LGFV space, overall balanced two-way flows in moderate size across the credit curve, and prices remained largely stable [4] Last Trading Day's Top Movers - Top Performers: HMELIN 5 1/4 04/28/27 rose 2.1pts to 102.3; FTLNHD 11.88 09/30/27 rose 1.8pts to 97.4; VLLPM 9 3/8 07/29/29 rose 1.4pts to 42.0; VLLPM 7 1/4 07/20/27 rose 1.0pts to 53.2; CHGRID 4.85 05/07/44 rose 1.0pts to 103.2 [5] - Top Underperformers: VNKRLE 3.975 11/09/27 dropped 2.9pts to 44.5; VNKRLE 3 1/2 11/12/29 dropped 2.6pts to 42.0; NWDEVL 6 1/4 PERP dropped 1.1pts to 67.7; GLPSP 4 1/2 PERP dropped 1.0pts to 69.5; UBS 7 PERP dropped 0.9pts to 100.8 [5] Macro News Recap - Last Friday, S&P (-0.43%), Dow (-1.05%), and Nasdaq (-0.92%) were lower; over the weekends, US-Israel struck Iran, and Iran counterattacked across the Middle East; US Jan'26 PPI was +0.5% mom, higher than the market expectation of +0.3% mom; US Feb'26 Chicago PMI was 57.7, higher than the market expectation of 52.0; UST yield was lower on last Friday, with 2/5/10/30 year yield at 3.38%/3.51%/3.97%/4.64% [6] Desk Analyst Comments - Maintain buy on VDNWDL 9 Perp, as NWD confirmed the continued suspension of ordinary dividends and coupon payments on its USD NWDEVL Perps; it is exploring all available funding channels to optimize cash flow and has no imminent rights issues or share placements plan [7] - NWD reported weaker 1HFY26 results with core operating profit falling 18% yoy to HKD3.6bn, due to a 50% yoy decline in revenue from fewer property projects delivered in mainland China and a drop in construction revenue, partly offset by an 18% yoy decrease in G&A expenses; gross profit declined 25% yoy, and gross margin increased to 60.0%; attributable net loss narrowed to HKD3.7bn from HKD6.6bn in 1HFY25 [8] - Contract sales and non-core disposals (NCD) totaled HKD13.8bn in 1HFY26, on track to meet its FY26 target of HKD27bn; pre-sales of some projects were well received; available saleable resources in HK in 2HFY26 include Pavilia Rosa, Grand Austin Bohemian, The Pavilia Farm; 1HFY26 capex was contained at HKD3.5bn against a full-year target of below HKD12bn [9] - As of Dec'25, net debt edged up marginally to HKD131.9bn from HKD129.6bn in Jun'25 due to lower cash balance; net gearing rose to 59.7% from 58.1%; NWD completed the exchange offer for USD bonds and perps in Nov'25, reducing outstanding perps and bonds by cHKD8.7bn and cHKD0.4bn respectively, totaled cHKD9.1bn; debts maturing over the next two years dropped to HKD36bn from HKD65bn; gross finance costs fell 11% yoy to HKD2.3bn in 1HFY26, and the average funding cost dropped to 3.9% from 4.7% in 1HFY25 [10][11] Quick Thoughts on US-Israel's Bombing Against Iran - Immediate impact: lower UST rates and wider credit spread of Middle East names; this morning, Asia opened with a wait-and-see tone; 10-yr UST opened 6 - 7bps lower and the decline narrowed to 3 - 4bps; credit spread of the Middle East widened 5 - 10bps; two-way flows on Middle East credits with selling in banks and buying in oil names; Brent Crude rose to cUSD77 a barrel this morning from cUSD73 on last Friday [13] - Prolonged and escalated conflict: the conflict may last longer and spill over wider than the 12-day War in last June; the key difference is the killings of Iranian supreme leader and his families; there are incentives for the US and Iran to contain the conflict, but how Iran and its allies will retaliate and how the US and Israel will respond are highly uncertain [14] - Varying impacts on credits: negative to Middle East credits in general; more negative impact on port operators, properties, and banks; higher oil and commodity prices could benefit oil and mining companies, quasi-sovereigns, and sovereigns, assuming the conflict does not materially affect oil production and FDI in GCC countries [15] Offshore Asia New Issues - No offshore Asia new issues were priced today [19] - Pipeline: Chang Development International plans a 3yr USD issue with a 5.4% coupon and a Baa2/-/- rating; Government of Mongolia plans a 6yr USD issue with a 6.3% coupon and a B1/BB-/- rating; Shaoxing Shangyu State-owned plans a 3yr USD issue with a 4.35% coupon and a -/-/BBB- rating [21] News and Market Color - On last Friday, 36 credit bonds were issued onshore with an amount of RMB21bn; in Feb'26, 1,075 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB816bn, a 34.2% yoy decrease [24] - China new home prices posted the steepest drop in more than three years in Feb'26 [24] - Macau gaming revenue for Feb'26 rose 4.5% yoy to MOP20.6bn [24] - CTF Services plans full early redemption of HKD850m convertible bonds due 2027 [24] - Dalian Wanda Commercial Management sold Shanghai Zhuanqiao Wanda Plaza for RMB2.1bn (cUSD298mn) [24] - Fosun International plans to repurchase up to HKD1bn (cUSD127.8m) of its shares [24] - Minmetals Land's scheme of arrangement to take the company private became effective on 27 Feb'26 [24] - SoftBank Group will invest an additional USD30bn in OpenAI as part of a USD110bn financing round at a USD730bn pre-money valuation [24] - Swire Pacific agreed to sell a 30% stake in its Coca-Cola bottling operations in Vietnam for USD221.1m in cash [24] - China Vanke terminated its RMB15bn (cUSD2.2bn) share issuance plan initiated in 2005 [24] - HKEx is still reviewing ENN Natural Gas listing application related to ENN Energy's privatisation [24]
固定收益部市场日报-20260105
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2026-01-05 07:59
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - Asia IG names were unchanged to 2bps tighter in the morning, with flows favoring higher - yielding issues in greater Asia and LGFV spaces [3] - Macau's gaming industry had solid GGR growth in 2025, and the 2026 target seems conservative [6] - China's PMI signaled a temporary improvement, with expected GDP growth decline from 5% in 2025 to 4.8% in 2026, and potential policy stimulus [3][10][11][15] Summary by Related Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - ARAMCO 35s tightened 1bp, FABUH 30 widened 5bps last Friday [2] - Chinese IG names had spreads changes of 5bps tighter to 4bps wider, NWDEVL Perps rose 0.2 - 1.9pts, VDNWDL 9 Perp increased by 1.4pts [2] - The buy recommendation on NWDEVL 5.25 Perp and NWDEVL 8.675 02/06/28 was changed to neutral, and a buy on VDNWDL 9 Perp was initiated [2] - Lai Sun Development's Chairman made a profit of USD11.3mn from trading LASUDE 26, and LASUDE 26 was up by 0.8pt [2] - Various bonds in different regions and industries had price and spread changes, such as Macau gaming, Chinese properties, JP, and SE Asia [2] Last Trading Day's Top Movers - Top performers included VLLPM 9 3/8 07/29/29 with a 3.3 price change, NWDEVL 5 1/4 PERP with a 1.9 change [4] - Top underperformers included FTLNHD 11.88 09/30/27 with a - 0.9 change, COSL 2 1/2 06/24/30 with a - 0.9 change [4] Macro News Recap - S&P (+0.19%), Dow (+0.66%) and Nasdaq (-0.03%) were mixed last Friday, and Trump made a statement about Venezuela [5] - 5/10/30 year UST yield was higher, with 2/5/10/30 year yield at 3.47%/3.74%/4.19%/4.86% [5] Desk Analyst Comments - Macau Gaming - Macau's GGR in Dec'25 increased 14.8% yoy to MOP20.9bn, and cumulatively in 2025, it increased 9.1% to MOP247.4bn, 84.6% of 2019 level [6] - In 2025, tourist arrival was 40.1mn, up 15% yoy and exceeding the 2019 record [6] - Macau government's 2026 GGR target of MOP236bn seems conservative [6] - MPELs and STCITYs are top picks, WYNMAC'27 and '29 are yield - pick - up plays, and neutral on MGMCHIs, SANLTDs, and SJMHOLs [7] Desk Analyst Comments - China Economy - China's manufacturing PMI rebounded in December but recovery was fragile due to seasonality [10][11][12] - Demand improved with new orders expanding and export orders approaching expansion, deflation pressure eased [10][11][12] - Service PMI remained in contraction, construction PMI rebounded [11][13] - Growth is expected to be under pressure in early 2026, potentially triggering policy stimulus [11][14][15] - Expect a 50bp cut in RRR and a 10bp cut in LPR in 1Q26, an additional 10bp LPR cut in 3Q26, and broad fiscal deficit at 8.5% in 2026 [11][14][15] Offshore Asia New Issues - No new offshore Asia issues were priced on the last trading day [17] - Pipeline issues include BOC Aviation, Export - Import Bank of India, and Hyundai Capital America with various tenors and coupon rates [18] News and Market Color - Onshore primary issuances suspended last Friday during the New Year Holiday [21] - China will broaden fiscal spending in 2026 and prioritize domestic demand [21] - Multiple corporate events such as China Jinmao's redemption, CTF Services' acquisition lapse, and rating changes [21]