2026 年 03 月 01 日 相关研究 券研究报 证券分析师 范晨轩 A0230525070003 fancx@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 罗石 A0230524080012 luoshi@swsresearch.com 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 王晨签 A0230525030001 wangcj@swsresearch.com 王易 A0230525050001 wangyi@swsresearch.com 张慧 A0230524100001 zhanghui@swsresearch.com 王凯婕 A0230525110001 wangkj@swsresearch.com 郑逸欢 A0230526010001 zhengyh@swsresearch.com 联系人 范晨轩 A0230525070003 fancx@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 伊朗高势油运行情空中加油， 告船联动关注 ST 松发、招商锌 申万宏源交运一周天地汇(2026 ...

证券日报网1月21日讯，招商轮船（601872）在接受调研者提问时表示，2026年VLCC等油轮运价波动 预计会较2025年更加剧烈，诸多结构性问题和短期供需不平衡可能导致现货运价短期出现大幅波动。目 前看，今年油轮市场的景气程度有望比2025年提升，改善动力预计来自合规市场需求的结构性增长，运 力端如果出现有效整合将有望进一步助力景气提升。2026年初，公司看到地缘风险的上升，亚洲原油进 口的长程化继续、印度减少部分地区原油进口、石油储备需求增加等均可能推动运价上行。另外近期韩 国船东Sinokor等行业玩家的动向值得高度关注，有可能导致VLCC油轮市场集中度的进一步提升和运作 模式的变化，对油轮市场供给结构、运费形成机制等均会产生重大影响，中长期影响也可能被市场低 估，从公司的角度看，目前这个变化似乎还没有引起大家足够重视。总体来看，需求方面，今年不论是 全球原油消费或储备需求并不悲观，预计整体需求有所提升，原油海运需求通常会好于原油需求增速； 供给方面，总体偏紧的情况持续，市场上实际可用的有效运力增长预计缓慢。 ...

Group 1 - The European shipping futures surged by 6.73% on November 17, indicating a strong market response to recent price adjustments by major shipping companies [1] - Maersk announced a price increase for December, raising rates for Far East to Northern Europe routes to $2,800 for small containers and $3,200 for large containers, reflecting a strong pricing strategy [1] - CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd also announced price hikes, reinforcing the trend of increasing shipping rates due to seasonal demand and inventory buildup ahead of the Christmas period [1] Group 2 - According to CICC, VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) rental rates have rapidly increased since November, with one-year rental rates surpassing the highest levels seen since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began in 2022, indicating a bullish outlook for the oil shipping market [1] - The supply side of VLCC remains tight, with a high proportion of older vessels and new supply primarily replacing these older ships, while demand is bolstered by strict sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil exports [1] - China Merchants Energy Shipping Company reported owning 52 VLCCs with 100% operational rights, and their vessels typically operate around 355 days per year, indicating a strong operational capacity in the VLCC segment [2] - COSCO Shipping Holdings reported a fleet of 557 self-operated container ships with a total capacity exceeding 3.4 million TEUs, maintaining a leading position in the industry [2]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Frontline reported a profit of $0.35 per share and an adjusted profit of NOK 80.4 million or $0.36 per share in Q2 2025, with an increase of $40 million compared to the previous quarter due to higher TCE earnings [5][6] - TCE earnings increased from SEK 241 million in the previous quarter to SEK 283 million in Q2 2025, driven by higher TCE rates [5][6] - The company has strong liquidity with $844 million in cash and cash equivalents as of June 30, 2025, and no meaningful debt maturities until 2030 [6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The TCE numbers for the fleet in 2025 are as follows: $43,100 per day for VLCCs, $38,900 per day for Suezmax, and $29,300 per day for LR2Aframax, showing an increase from Q1 2025 but below expectations [3][4] - The average cash breakeven rates for the next twelve months are estimated at approximately $28,700 per day for VLCCs, $22,900 for Suezmax, and $22,900 for LR2, with a fleet average of about $25,900 per day [7][8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The compliant tanker fleet is experiencing improved utilization as compliant oil exports grow, with significant increases in exports expected from the U.S. and Latin America [11][12] - Global oil supply growth is projected to increase by 3 million barrels per day year on year, with exports expected to rise by approximately 2 million barrels per day [13][14] - The tanker market is expected to see a 6% increase in freight demand, with limited fleet growth anticipated [22][23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on the compliant fleet and is optimistic about the market dynamics, including longer trade lanes and stable fleet development [23][25] - Frontline aims to capitalize on the increasing utilization of compliant tankers and the expected growth in oil demand, particularly from Asia [25] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the shipping and tanker industry is currently affected by global conflicts and trade policies, but there are signs of positive change in trade dynamics [2][12] - The company anticipates a potential contango scenario in the oil market this winter, which could lead to increased utilization and inventory building [29][30] - There is optimism regarding the ability to push through the current ceiling on VLCC rates, with a potential new floor being established [35] Other Important Information - The fleet consists of 41 VLCCs, 21 Suezmax tankers, and 18 LR2 tankers, all of which are eco vessels, with 55% fitted with scrubbers [7] - The company has recorded operational expenses of $8,700 per day for VLCCs, $8,900 for Suezmax, and $7,600 for LR2 tankers in Q2 2025 [8] Q&A Session Summary Question: Follow-up on U.S. and VLCC exports to Asia - Management discussed the potential impact of increased U.S. exports to Asia and the dynamics of OPEC's incremental volume entering the market as winter approaches [28][30] Question: Recent gains in VLCC spot rates - Management attributed the recent gains in VLCC spot rates to a shift in oil supply dynamics, with compliant sources replacing Russian and Iranian oil, leading to increased demand for compliant tankers [32][34]

Financial Performance Highlights - In Q4 2019, the average spot rate for VLCCs in the TI pool was $61,700 per day, while the average time charter rate was $35,700 per day[8] - For Suezmax vessels, the average spot rate in Q4 2019 was $41,800 per day, and the average time charter rate was $29,300 per day[8] - The company's revenue for Q4 2019 was $355.154 million, compared to $236.107 million in Q4 2018[12] - Full year 2019 revenue reached $932.377 million, a significant increase from $600.024 million in 2018[12] - Net profit for Q4 2019 was $160.801 million, a substantial improvement from $279 in Q4 2018[12] - Full year 2019 net profit was $118.868 million, compared to a loss of $110.070 million in 2018[12] Q1 2020 Outlook - For Q1 2020, approximately 60% of VLCC days have been fixed at around $89,200 per day[11] - For Q1 2020, approximately 51% of Suezmax days have been fixed at around $57,500 per day[11] Balance Sheet & Leverage - The company's leverage, based on book value, is at 44%[14] - Cash reserves stand at $297 million as of December 2019, compared to $173 million in December 2018[13] Market Dynamics & IMO 2020 - The company anticipates constructive crude tanker market fundamentals for 2020[11] - The company notes that the reduction of fuel spreads and built-in protection mechanisms[16]