Group 1 - Domestic futures opened with more gains than losses, with gold, crude oil, and iron ore rising over 1% [1] - Coking coal, coke, and apples experienced slight increases [1] - European shipping indices fell over 3%, while nickel and caustic soda dropped more than 1% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European shipping market is experiencing a transition from peak season to off-peak season, with a significant decline in spot freight rates and a competitive pricing environment among shipping companies [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of August 26, the main contract EC2510 closed at 1318.9 points, down 2.76%, reflecting a bearish trend in the futures market [2]. - The SCFIS European line index reported a decrease to 1990.20 points as of August 25, down 8.7% from the previous period [2]. - Spot freight rates have dropped from a peak of $3380/FEU at the end of July to $2160/FEU, with an average weekly decline of $120/FEU [2][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - In September, the shipping market is expected to enter a seasonal downturn, with marginal weakening in cargo volume while capacity remains relatively high [3]. - Scheduled and pending weekly capacity for September is 284,000 TEU and 10,000 TEU, respectively, while for October it is 263,000 TEU and 25,000 TEU [3]. - Despite a potential surge in shipments before the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, shipping companies are likely to prioritize stockpiling, making it difficult to maintain prices [3]. Group 3: Freight Rate Trends - Current average freight rates for early September have fallen to $2160/FEU, with various alliances reporting different average rates: Gemini Alliance at $1920/FEU, OA Alliance at $2230/FEU, PA Alliance at $2170/FEU, and MSC at $2352/FEU [3]. - The decline in spot rates has exceeded $1200/FEU since the peak in late July [3]. Group 4: Futures Market Insights - The current spot market price range is between $2100 and $2200/FEU, with the Gemini Alliance's price dropping to $1900/FEU, prompting other alliances to lower their prices to maintain loading rates [4]. - The main contract EC2510's closing price suggests a freight rate of $1950 to $2000/FEU, indicating potential for further adjustments in the futures market [4]. - The overall trend in the European shipping futures market is expected to remain weak and volatile until signs of stabilization in the fundamentals emerge [4]. Group 5: Contract Analysis - Near-term contracts are closely tied to spot market fundamentals, necessitating close monitoring of freight rate trends and shipping capacity adjustments [5]. - Long-term contracts incorporate seasonal pricing and potential recovery expectations, with 2026 contracts trading at a discount compared to 2025 contracts [5]. - Geopolitical events and changes in U.S.-China tariffs are significant factors influencing long-term contracts and overall shipping volumes [5].

早上好！先来看看美联储最新消息。 明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔.卡什卡利最新表示，美国经济增速正在放缓，可能使得短期内降息成为合适的政策选择。 当地时间周三(8月6日)，卡什卡利接受采访时说道："经济增速正在放缓。短期内，开始调整联邦基金利率可能是合适的。" 他补充道，关税仍是一个重大的不确定性，目前尚不清楚它们将对通胀产生何种影响，"我们还能等多久才能看清关税的效应？这正是我现在所忧 虑的"。 卡什卡利称，短期内，降息这一选项可能比干等关税明朗化要更好，即使之后可能要"朝反方向调整"，即加息。 他表示自己仍预计年底前将降息两次，但补充说，如果有迹象表明关税引发的通胀效应可能更持久，那么决策者可能会减少降息次数。 当天，旧金山联储主席戴利表示，考虑到劳动力市场放缓以及她评估认为关税对通胀仅构成短期威胁，她认为美联储将很快需要降息。"在没有关 税的情况下，通胀一直在逐步下降，随着经济增速放缓以及货币政策仍然具有抑制性，通胀应会继续下降。"她补充说，尽管关税将在短期内推高 通胀，但不太可能持续产生影响。与此同时，劳动力市场已经疲软。"我认为进一步的放缓将是令人担忧的，一旦劳动力市场出现动摇，它往往会 迅速而严重地下滑 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the context of high - capacity suppression, as demand gradually enters the off - season, freight rates will face pressure in the future [2][20] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs EC Futures Contracts - EC2508 had a change of - 0.81 in price and - 724 in position change, with a closing price of 2121.6, trading volume of 195.0, and open interest of 4873 [2][20] - EC2510 had a price change of - 2.97, position change of - 3056, closing price of 1425.1, trading volume of 46302, and open interest of 51818 [2][20] Freight Rate Indexes - SCFIS had a change of - 3.50% compared to the previous period and - 0.89% compared to the two - period ago, with a current value of 2421.94 on July 28, 2025 [2][20] - SCFI had a change of 0.53% compared to the previous period and - 0.95% compared to the two - period ago, with a current value of 2099 dollars/TEU on July 25, 2025 [2][20] European Line Supply and Demand - The average weekly capacity in August and September (tentatively) is 325,000 and 324,000 TEU respectively. The capacity in week32/33/34/35 is 330,000, 305,000, 350,000, and 330,000 TEU respectively [2][20] - Overall, the capacity pressure is high, especially in the second half of August. The overall cargo volume is gradually weakening and entering the off - season [2][20] European Line Quotations - Currently, downstream is booking spaces for early August (week31 - 32). Week32 in August is expected to land at about 3300 dollars (equivalent to 2300 points on the disk) [2][20] - MSK's opening quotation for week33 is 2800 dollars, and most other shipping companies follow the previous quotations [2][20] Related News - On August 1, Trump increased the tariff on Canada from 25% to 35% and agreed to extend the temporary agreement with Mexico for 90 days, and Mexico agreed to terminate major non - tariff trade barriers [2][20] - On August 1, Hamas stated that the resistance will not stop until the end of the Israeli occupation [2][20]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report presents the price changes of various commodity futures in different time periods (weekly, monthly, yearly, two - year, and three - year), including their respective rankings and the performance of dynamic portfolios composed of top - ranked varieties compared with the CSI 300 Index Futures [5][7][20] Summary by Catalog 1. Price Change Description - Last week, Brent crude oil had the largest weekly price increase of 14.6690%, European Line Container Shipping had the largest monthly price increase of 18.0858%, and polysilicon had the largest yearly price increase of 5.4099%. Among agricultural products, jujube had the largest yearly price decrease of 5.2947%; among ferrous metals, hot - rolled coil had the largest yearly price increase of 2.3164%; among non - ferrous metals, New York silver had the largest yearly price increase of 3.3171%; among energy and chemical products, polysilicon had the largest yearly price increase of 5.4099%; in the financial sector, the Hang Seng Index had a yearly price decrease of 1.8350% [5] 2. Price Change Tables 2.1 Comprehensive Price Change Table - It shows the weekly, monthly, and yearly price changes of multiple commodity futures such as iron ore, stainless steel, and various financial indices on July 7, 2025 [7] 2.2 Weekly Price Change Ranking - The top - ranked futures in weekly price increase include polysilicon (10.7093%), European Line Container Shipping (3.0068%), and rebar (2.7425%). Those with price decreases include methanol (- 0.2909%), sugar (- 0.3110), and soybean No. 2 (- 0.3332) [8] 2.3 Monthly Price Change Ranking - The top - ranked futures in monthly price increase include polysilicon (6.0000%), European Line Container Shipping (4.6856%), and live pigs (2.9878%). Those with price decreases include coke (- 0.3561), tin (- 0.3319), and silicon ferroalloy (- 0.2974) [10] 2.4 Yearly Price Change Ranking - The top - ranked futures in yearly price increase include New York silver (26.9920%), New York gold (26.7134%), and Shanghai gold (24.6132%). Those with price decreases include polysilicon (- 12.4811), silicon ferroalloy (- 12.0085), and wire rod (- 11.8353) [12] 2.5 Two - Year Price Change Ranking - The top - ranked futures in two - year price increase include European Line Container Shipping (278.0328%), New York gold (73.4387%), and Shanghai gold (66.866199). Those with price decreases include industrial silicon (- 60.1245), polyvinyl chloride (- 29.0916), and coke (- 30.2986) [14] 2.6 Three - Year Price Change Ranking - The top - ranked futures in three - year price increase include European Line Container Shipping (278.0328%), Shanghai silver (92.6721%), and Shanghai gold (90.0676). Those with price decreases include rubber (- 18.6785), PTA (- 19.3067), and cotton (- 20.3440) [16] 3. Valuation Chart - The chart tracks the weekly price changes of dynamic portfolios composed of the top five and top ten weekly price - increasing varieties in the following week and compares them with the weekly price changes of the CSI 300 Index Futures [20] 4. Precipitated Capital Ranking - It shows the ranking of various commodity futures in terms of precipitated capital on July 7, 2025. The top - ranked ones include CSI 1000 Index Futures (520.6237 billion yuan), CSI 300 Index Futures (415.5635 billion yuan), and Shanghai gold (380.0917 billion yuan) [22]

Group 1 - The recent decline in European shipping futures is attributed to three main reasons: insufficient price increases in the spot market, macroeconomic disturbances, and a temporary easing of supply-demand fundamentals [2][3][5] - Shipping companies attempted to raise prices on the European route, but the market remains skeptical about the effectiveness of these increases, especially after a price cut on May 27 [2] - The European Union has lowered its economic growth forecast for the Eurozone, which dampens expectations for import demand, compounded by ongoing trade policy uncertainties from the U.S. [3] Group 2 - The end of the rush period for U.S. shipping has led to a slowdown in inventory replenishment by cargo owners, resulting in a return of capacity that was previously diverted to the European route [4] - On the supply side, a significant increase in U.S. shipping cancellations in May has led to a reallocation of capacity to the European route, increasing supply [5] - The traditional retail inventory replenishment season in Europe has not yet started, leading to a current market characterized by "high prices but low activity" [5] Group 3 - Future attention should be focused on the Red Sea detour ratio, which remains above 75%, as this detour reduces effective capacity by about 30%, providing support for price floors [6] - If the situation in the Red Sea worsens or if trade policies in Europe and the U.S. ease, prices could potentially break previous highs [6] - The current shipping index for Europe is in a phase of "macroeconomic expectation adjustment" and "seasonal industry competition," necessitating close monitoring of shipping companies' pricing strategies and geopolitical developments [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall commodity futures market shows a complex trend, with different metals, industrial products, agricultural products, energy chemicals, and shipping sectors having their own supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, some metals are affected by macro - policies and geopolitical events, while agricultural products are influenced by factors such as weather, trade policies, and seasonal demand [1][5][7]. Summary by Category Basic Metals - **Copper**: Yesterday, copper prices fluctuated strongly. The global capital is loose, and the rise in gold and oil prices also boosts copper prices. The domestic back is still strong, indicating tightness in the near - term. It is recommended to buy on dips [1]. - **Aluminum**: The 2507 contract of electrolytic aluminum closed down 0.17% at 20,075 yuan/ton. The supply is increasing slightly, and the demand is weakening. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Alumina**: The 2509 contract of alumina closed up 0.22% at 3,134 yuan/ton. The supply is decreasing, and the demand is increasing. It shows a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation, and corresponding option strategies and short - selling operations are recommended [1]. - **Zinc**: The 2506 contract of zinc closed down 0.09% at 22,435 yuan/ton. There is a risk of mine shutdown, and the actual import volume may be lower than expected. Consumption is in the off - season, and zinc prices may fall [1]. - **Lead**: The 2506 contract of lead closed down 0.09% at 16,845 yuan/ton. Consumption is in the off - season, and lead prices are expected to fall in the short term and maintain range - bound in the medium term [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The 2507 contract of industrial silicon hit a new low, closing at 7,940 yuan. The supply is strong and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rebounds [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The 2507 contract of lithium carbonate closed down 0.88% at 60,860 yuan/ton. The supply is in excess, and the demand growth is lower than expected. It is recommended to hold short positions or short on rebounds [2]. - **Polysilicon**: The PS2507 contract of polysilicon closed at 35,625 yuan/ton, down 425 yuan. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is large. It is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term, and relevant trading strategies are recommended [2]. - **Tin**: Tin prices fluctuated strongly. The global capital is loose, and the inventory is decreasing rapidly. It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The 2510 contract of rebar closed at 3,061 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan. The supply - demand of steel is balanced, but the macro - sentiment is deteriorating. It is recommended to close short positions and conduct relevant arbitrage operations [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2509 contract of iron ore closed at 724.5 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan. The supply - demand is neutral to strong in the short term, but the medium - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is recommended to close short positions and try long positions [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2509 contract of coking coal closed at 844.5 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. The supply - demand is relatively loose, and the futures are at a premium. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean rose overnight. The supply in South America is loose in the near - term, and the sowing of new US soybeans is going well. The domestic soybean is weak in the short term and will follow the international market in the medium term [5]. - **Corn**: The 2507 contract of corn is running weakly. The annual supply - demand is tightening marginally, but the short - term spot sentiment may cool down. The futures price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [5]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract of Zhengzhou sugar closed at 5,851 yuan/ton, down 0.14%. The global sugar market is expected to be in surplus in the 25/26 season. It is expected to rebound in the short term and be bearish in the future [6]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price rebounded, and the domestic cotton price also recovered. It is recommended to wait and see and adopt a range - bound strategy [6]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil market rose. The supply is in the seasonal increase period, and the demand is improving. It is in a weak seasonal stage with no major contradictions [6]. - **Eggs**: The 2507 contract of eggs rebounded, and the spot price was stable. The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the cost provides support. The futures price is expected to fluctuate [6]. - **Hogs**: The 2509 contract of hogs fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price fell slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The futures price is expected to decline [6]. - **Apples**: The main apple contract closed at 7,784 yuan/ton, up 0.37%. The new - season apple production may be affected by weather, and the market is volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main LLDPE contract fell slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is affected by the off - season and trade policies. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term and be shorted on highs in the long term [7]. - **PVC**: The V09 contract of PVC closed at 4,937 yuan, down 0.3%. The supply is large, and the demand is weakening. It is recommended to close short positions and wait and see [7]. - **PTA**: The PX supply is low, and the PTA supply is increasing. The polyester industry has a high load but low profits. It is recommended to take appropriate profit - taking on long - short spreads and be cautious about unilateral trading [7]. - **Glass**: The FG09 contract of glass closed at 1,018 yuan, up 0.2%. The supply is rigid, the inventory is accumulating, and the price is weakening. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options above 1,250 [7]. - **PP**: The main PP contract fluctuated slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is expected to improve. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term and be shorted on highs in the long term [8]. - **MEG**: The MEG supply is at a medium level, and the inventory is decreasing. The polyester industry has a high load but low profits. The price is expected to be strong, but caution is needed for long positions [8]. - **Styrene**: The styrene market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and long - short spreads are recommended. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand may be boosted by trade policies [8]. - **Soda Ash**: The SA09 contract of soda ash closed at 1,277 yuan, down 0.4%. The supply is decreasing due to maintenance, and the demand from photovoltaic glass is weakening. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options at 1,600 [8]. Shipping - **European Line Container Shipping**: The main contract rose 1.32%. After the Geneva meeting, tariffs were reduced, and most shipowners announced a price increase on June 1. The demand in the US line has recovered, but the European line is still moderate. The short - term EC is expected to fluctuate strongly, and 8 - 10 long - short spreads are recommended, with caution for the 06 contract [9][10].

Group 1 - The commodity market shows mixed trends, with palm oil and aluminum oxide rising over 1%, while the chemical sector collectively declines, with styrene dropping over 2% and industrial silicon down by 2% [1] - Lithium carbonate and industrial silicon have reached historical lows [1] - The main contracts for styrene and industrial silicon have seen significant price drops, with styrene down 2.16% to 7558 and industrial silicon down 1.91% to 7975 [2] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China has lowered the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 10 basis points to 3% and 3.5% respectively, indicating a shift in monetary policy [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to implement most employment and economic stabilization policies by the end of June, aiming for high-quality development [4] Group 3 - The commercial inventory of the three major oils has increased to 1.86 million tons, with a week-on-week rise of 40,000 tons, and a year-on-year increase of 200,000 tons [5][6] - The inventory breakdown shows soybean oil stable at 640,000 tons, canola oil at 810,000 tons (up 10,000 tons week-on-week), and palm oil at 410,000 tons (up 30,000 tons week-on-week) [5][6] Group 4 - The chemical sector is experiencing a downturn, with styrene futures dropping to below 7600 yuan, influenced by supply and demand dynamics [7] - The market for styrene is currently balanced, with no significant supply reduction, and downstream demand remains stable despite minor fluctuations [7] Group 5 - The SCFIS European line index has decreased by 2.9% to 1265.30 points, reflecting a cooling market after previous macroeconomic optimism [8] - The market is expected to stabilize and return to fundamental valuation as the supply-demand balance is reassessed [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall market is influenced by factors such as trade negotiations, economic data, and policy changes. Different commodities show various trends and investment opportunities based on their specific fundamentals [1][2][3]. - Trade war impacts are gradually weakening, but uncertainties still exist, affecting market sentiment and price trends [1][4][5]. - Some commodities are expected to be in a state of supply - demand imbalance, leading to price fluctuations and investment strategies [3][4][6]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: Market showed Friday oscillations, with international gold priced in London nearly closing at $3200/ounce. Suggested to build long positions opportunistically due to the unchanged de - dollarization logic [1]. - **Silver**: Recommended to short on rebounds or go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Expected to trade in a range due to short - term risk preference decline, weak dollar, and tight spot market, despite inventory accumulation [2]. - **Aluminum**: Likely to maintain a sideways movement in the short term as downstream consumption weakens, and it's advised to wait and see [2]. - **Alumina**: Prices are expected to be strong until an agreement is reached between mining companies and the Guinea government, and a light - position long strategy is recommended [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: With weak fundamentals and limited downward momentum, it's advisable to wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Suggested to hold short positions or short on rebounds as the market is in a surplus and the bearish sentiment is strong [3]. - **Polysilicon**: Expected to bottom - out and oscillate in the short term, and it's recommended to take profit on long positions and consider shorting the 07 contract later [3]. - **Tin**: Forecasted to trade in a range due to weak risk preference and a weak dollar [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: Futures prices are expected to have wide - range oscillations, and it's recommended to close short positions and consider certain arbitrage strategies [4]. - **Iron Ore**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate widely, and it's advised to close short positions and try long positions on the 2509 contract [4]. - **Coking Coal**: It's recommended to wait and see as the market is in a relatively balanced state [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: U.S. soybeans are expected to be range - bound, and domestic soybeans are short - term weak and mid - term follow the international market [5]. - **Corn**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate and consolidate as the spot market is weak and trade conditions ease [5]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is expected to be in surplus in the 25/26 season, and the short - term is expected to rebound while the long - term is bearish [6]. - **Cotton**: It's recommended to wait and see and adopt a range - trading strategy [6]. - **Palm Oil**: In a seasonal weak phase, and later attention should be paid to production and biodiesel policies [6]. - **Eggs**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate as supply is high and demand is weak with cost support [6]. - **Hogs**: Futures prices are expected to decline as supply increases and demand is in the off - season [6]. - **Apples**: Prices are expected to remain high in the short term, but attention should be paid to fruit consumption and weather conditions [6]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: Expected to be strong in the short term and weak in the long term. Short - term long positions can be considered, and long - term short positions on far - month contracts are recommended [8]. - **PTA**: PX and PTA are in a de - stocking state, and it's recommended to take profit on long - short spreads and be cautious with single - side trading [8]. - **Rubber**: Bearish sentiment is strong, and it's recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [8]. - **Glass**: Prices are expected to decline slightly, and it's recommended to sell call options above 1250 [8]. - **PP**: Expected to be strong in the short term and weak in the long term. Short - term long positions can be considered, and long - term short positions on far - month contracts are recommended [9]. - **MEG**: Prices are expected to be strong in the short term, but long positions should be taken with caution due to high valuation [9]. - **Crude Oil**: Recommended as a short - side allocation due to high supply pressure and potential negative factors [9]. - **Styrene**: Expected to be strong in the short term, and a long - short spread strategy is recommended [10]. - **Soda Ash**: It's recommended to close short positions gradually and consider selling out - of - the - money call options [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: Expected to stop falling and stabilize, waiting for non - aluminum downstream demand to recover [10]. Shipping - **European Line Container Shipping**: The 06 contract should be chased with caution, and an 8 - 10 long - short spread strategy is recommended [11].

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations with the ChiNext index leading the decline, closing down 1.91%. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.68% and the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 1.62%. Over 3,800 stocks declined across the market, with total trading volume at 1.15 trillion yuan, a decrease of 164.3 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. Gold Price Decline - Gold prices continued to fall from historical highs, with the Shanghai gold futures contract dropping nearly 4% in intraday trading. The price fell from around $3,200 per ounce to $3,149 per ounce, marking a decline of over 10% from the April peak of $3,500 per ounce [3]. - Gold ETFs tracking gold prices also experienced significant declines [4]. - The A-share precious metals sector weakened due to falling gold prices, with companies like Huayu Mining, Zijin Mining, Sichuan Gold, Hunan Silver, and others seeing their stock prices drop [7]. Military Industry Activity - The military sector showed repeated activity, with Chengfei Integration hitting its seventh consecutive daily limit up. Other companies like Wand Holdings and Suzhou Longjie also saw significant gains [16][17]. Shipping Sector Surge - The shipping sector became a market highlight, with stocks like Nanjing Port, Jinjiang Shipping, and Ningbo Ocean all hitting their daily limit up. The European shipping futures contract surged, with a maximum increase of over 50% since May 9 [23][28]. - A report indicated that container shipping bookings from China to the U.S. surged nearly 300% following tariff reductions, with average bookings rising from 5,709 to 21,530 standard containers [28].