1月8日，欧线集运期货主力合约早盘低开5.56%，盘中一度跌近8%。 海通期货表示，参考宁波至不来梅哈芬从大柜2650/高柜2750美金调降至大柜2400/高柜2500美金，降幅 250美金；上海至格但斯克调降至大柜2420美金，上述欧洲港口不属于欧基港，不计入SCFIS欧线指 数。但整体马士基此轮第四周部分口岸的调降体现出其现货报价可能逐步见顶，涉及特价的船只将在第 五周挂靠上海港口，因此不排除下一周常规欧基港口开舱价格调降的可能性。 消息面上，根据最新船司报价，海期航运方面1月8日晚指出，马士基二次调降今年第四周报价，至3400 美元/FEU。 ...

12/10 以色列军队对目前中其控制的加沙汗尤尼斯部分地区发动了空袭和炮击 12/10 哈马斯官员表示：解除巴勒斯坦人的武装就等于夺走他们的生命。 隼运昼报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/12/11 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 基 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持会 | 持仓变动 | | 期货 | EC2512 | | 1655.1 | -0.58% | -146.0 | 321 | | 3169 | -114 | | | EC2602 | | 1665.2 | 2.80% | -156.1 | 35894 | | 31382 | રિકેટ | | | EC2604 | | 1080.7 | 0.66% | 428.4 | 3703 | | 19219 | -159 | | | EC2606 | | 1225.6 | 0.53% | 283.5 | 380 | | 2274 | -69 | | | EC2608 | | 137 ...

Group 1 - The European shipping futures surged by 6.73% on November 17, indicating a strong market response to recent price adjustments by major shipping companies [1] - Maersk announced a price increase for December, raising rates for Far East to Northern Europe routes to $2,800 for small containers and $3,200 for large containers, reflecting a strong pricing strategy [1] - CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd also announced price hikes, reinforcing the trend of increasing shipping rates due to seasonal demand and inventory buildup ahead of the Christmas period [1] Group 2 - According to CICC, VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) rental rates have rapidly increased since November, with one-year rental rates surpassing the highest levels seen since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began in 2022, indicating a bullish outlook for the oil shipping market [1] - The supply side of VLCC remains tight, with a high proportion of older vessels and new supply primarily replacing these older ships, while demand is bolstered by strict sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil exports [1] - China Merchants Energy Shipping Company reported owning 52 VLCCs with 100% operational rights, and their vessels typically operate around 355 days per year, indicating a strong operational capacity in the VLCC segment [2] - COSCO Shipping Holdings reported a fleet of 557 self-operated container ships with a total capacity exceeding 3.4 million TEUs, maintaining a leading position in the industry [2]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic futures market shows mixed performance with silver rising nearly 4% and gold, butadiene rubber increasing over 1%, while European shipping, live pigs, and styrene dropping over 1% [1] Group 1 - Silver prices increased by nearly 4% in the domestic futures market [1] - Gold and butadiene rubber both saw an increase of over 1% [1] - European shipping, live pigs, and styrene experienced declines of over 1% [1]

Group 1 - Domestic futures opened with more gains than losses, with gold, crude oil, and iron ore rising over 1% [1] - Coking coal, coke, and apples experienced slight increases [1] - European shipping indices fell over 3%, while nickel and caustic soda dropped more than 1% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European shipping market is experiencing a transition from peak season to off-peak season, with a significant decline in spot freight rates and a competitive pricing environment among shipping companies [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of August 26, the main contract EC2510 closed at 1318.9 points, down 2.76%, reflecting a bearish trend in the futures market [2]. - The SCFIS European line index reported a decrease to 1990.20 points as of August 25, down 8.7% from the previous period [2]. - Spot freight rates have dropped from a peak of $3380/FEU at the end of July to $2160/FEU, with an average weekly decline of $120/FEU [2][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - In September, the shipping market is expected to enter a seasonal downturn, with marginal weakening in cargo volume while capacity remains relatively high [3]. - Scheduled and pending weekly capacity for September is 284,000 TEU and 10,000 TEU, respectively, while for October it is 263,000 TEU and 25,000 TEU [3]. - Despite a potential surge in shipments before the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, shipping companies are likely to prioritize stockpiling, making it difficult to maintain prices [3]. Group 3: Freight Rate Trends - Current average freight rates for early September have fallen to $2160/FEU, with various alliances reporting different average rates: Gemini Alliance at $1920/FEU, OA Alliance at $2230/FEU, PA Alliance at $2170/FEU, and MSC at $2352/FEU [3]. - The decline in spot rates has exceeded $1200/FEU since the peak in late July [3]. Group 4: Futures Market Insights - The current spot market price range is between $2100 and $2200/FEU, with the Gemini Alliance's price dropping to $1900/FEU, prompting other alliances to lower their prices to maintain loading rates [4]. - The main contract EC2510's closing price suggests a freight rate of $1950 to $2000/FEU, indicating potential for further adjustments in the futures market [4]. - The overall trend in the European shipping futures market is expected to remain weak and volatile until signs of stabilization in the fundamentals emerge [4]. Group 5: Contract Analysis - Near-term contracts are closely tied to spot market fundamentals, necessitating close monitoring of freight rate trends and shipping capacity adjustments [5]. - Long-term contracts incorporate seasonal pricing and potential recovery expectations, with 2026 contracts trading at a discount compared to 2025 contracts [5]. - Geopolitical events and changes in U.S.-China tariffs are significant factors influencing long-term contracts and overall shipping volumes [5].

Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari indicated that the U.S. economic growth is slowing, suggesting that a rate cut may be an appropriate policy choice in the short term [1][2] - Kashkari expects two rate cuts by the end of the year but noted that if tariffs lead to more persistent inflation effects, the number of cuts may be reduced [3] - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly emphasized the need for a rate cut soon, citing a weakening labor market and the belief that tariffs pose only a short-term threat to inflation [3] Group 2: Employment and Economic Indicators - The July non-farm payroll report showed an increase of 73,000 jobs, with previous months' data revised down by nearly 260,000, and the unemployment rate slightly rose from 4.1% to 4.2% [3] - Fed Governor Lael Brainard described the July employment report as concerning, indicating it may signal an economic turning point [3] Group 3: Market Expectations - According to CME FedWatch, the probability of the Fed maintaining rates in September is 6.4%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 93.6% [4] - The probability of maintaining rates in October is 2%, with cumulative probabilities for a 25 basis point cut at 33.9% and a 50 basis point cut at 64% [4] Group 4: Trade and Tariff Developments - President Trump announced plans to impose approximately 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors, with no fees for products manufactured in the U.S. [5][7] - Brazil's President Lula stated that Brazil will not impose retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. and will continue dialogue with the U.S. government [11][12] Group 5: Shipping and Freight Market Trends - The European shipping index showed signs of stabilization, with the main contract EC2510 reaching 1,420.1 points, reflecting a 0.64% increase [13] - The current freight market is experiencing downward pressure on prices due to a decrease in cargo volume and the implementation of new U.S. tariff policies [16][17] - Analysts predict that the European shipping rates will continue to weaken, with a downward trend expected to last until the end of October [17][18]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the context of high - capacity suppression, as demand gradually enters the off - season, freight rates will face pressure in the future [2][20] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs EC Futures Contracts - EC2508 had a change of - 0.81 in price and - 724 in position change, with a closing price of 2121.6, trading volume of 195.0, and open interest of 4873 [2][20] - EC2510 had a price change of - 2.97, position change of - 3056, closing price of 1425.1, trading volume of 46302, and open interest of 51818 [2][20] Freight Rate Indexes - SCFIS had a change of - 3.50% compared to the previous period and - 0.89% compared to the two - period ago, with a current value of 2421.94 on July 28, 2025 [2][20] - SCFI had a change of 0.53% compared to the previous period and - 0.95% compared to the two - period ago, with a current value of 2099 dollars/TEU on July 25, 2025 [2][20] European Line Supply and Demand - The average weekly capacity in August and September (tentatively) is 325,000 and 324,000 TEU respectively. The capacity in week32/33/34/35 is 330,000, 305,000, 350,000, and 330,000 TEU respectively [2][20] - Overall, the capacity pressure is high, especially in the second half of August. The overall cargo volume is gradually weakening and entering the off - season [2][20] European Line Quotations - Currently, downstream is booking spaces for early August (week31 - 32). Week32 in August is expected to land at about 3300 dollars (equivalent to 2300 points on the disk) [2][20] - MSK's opening quotation for week33 is 2800 dollars, and most other shipping companies follow the previous quotations [2][20] Related News - On August 1, Trump increased the tariff on Canada from 25% to 35% and agreed to extend the temporary agreement with Mexico for 90 days, and Mexico agreed to terminate major non - tariff trade barriers [2][20] - On August 1, Hamas stated that the resistance will not stop until the end of the Israeli occupation [2][20]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report presents the price changes of various commodity futures in different time periods (weekly, monthly, yearly, two - year, and three - year), including their respective rankings and the performance of dynamic portfolios composed of top - ranked varieties compared with the CSI 300 Index Futures [5][7][20] Summary by Catalog 1. Price Change Description - Last week, Brent crude oil had the largest weekly price increase of 14.6690%, European Line Container Shipping had the largest monthly price increase of 18.0858%, and polysilicon had the largest yearly price increase of 5.4099%. Among agricultural products, jujube had the largest yearly price decrease of 5.2947%; among ferrous metals, hot - rolled coil had the largest yearly price increase of 2.3164%; among non - ferrous metals, New York silver had the largest yearly price increase of 3.3171%; among energy and chemical products, polysilicon had the largest yearly price increase of 5.4099%; in the financial sector, the Hang Seng Index had a yearly price decrease of 1.8350% [5] 2. Price Change Tables 2.1 Comprehensive Price Change Table - It shows the weekly, monthly, and yearly price changes of multiple commodity futures such as iron ore, stainless steel, and various financial indices on July 7, 2025 [7] 2.2 Weekly Price Change Ranking - The top - ranked futures in weekly price increase include polysilicon (10.7093%), European Line Container Shipping (3.0068%), and rebar (2.7425%). Those with price decreases include methanol (- 0.2909%), sugar (- 0.3110), and soybean No. 2 (- 0.3332) [8] 2.3 Monthly Price Change Ranking - The top - ranked futures in monthly price increase include polysilicon (6.0000%), European Line Container Shipping (4.6856%), and live pigs (2.9878%). Those with price decreases include coke (- 0.3561), tin (- 0.3319), and silicon ferroalloy (- 0.2974) [10] 2.4 Yearly Price Change Ranking - The top - ranked futures in yearly price increase include New York silver (26.9920%), New York gold (26.7134%), and Shanghai gold (24.6132%). Those with price decreases include polysilicon (- 12.4811), silicon ferroalloy (- 12.0085), and wire rod (- 11.8353) [12] 2.5 Two - Year Price Change Ranking - The top - ranked futures in two - year price increase include European Line Container Shipping (278.0328%), New York gold (73.4387%), and Shanghai gold (66.866199). Those with price decreases include industrial silicon (- 60.1245), polyvinyl chloride (- 29.0916), and coke (- 30.2986) [14] 2.6 Three - Year Price Change Ranking - The top - ranked futures in three - year price increase include European Line Container Shipping (278.0328%), Shanghai silver (92.6721%), and Shanghai gold (90.0676). Those with price decreases include rubber (- 18.6785), PTA (- 19.3067), and cotton (- 20.3440) [16] 3. Valuation Chart - The chart tracks the weekly price changes of dynamic portfolios composed of the top five and top ten weekly price - increasing varieties in the following week and compares them with the weekly price changes of the CSI 300 Index Futures [20] 4. Precipitated Capital Ranking - It shows the ranking of various commodity futures in terms of precipitated capital on July 7, 2025. The top - ranked ones include CSI 1000 Index Futures (520.6237 billion yuan), CSI 300 Index Futures (415.5635 billion yuan), and Shanghai gold (380.0917 billion yuan) [22]

Group 1 - The recent decline in European shipping futures is attributed to three main reasons: insufficient price increases in the spot market, macroeconomic disturbances, and a temporary easing of supply-demand fundamentals [2][3][5] - Shipping companies attempted to raise prices on the European route, but the market remains skeptical about the effectiveness of these increases, especially after a price cut on May 27 [2] - The European Union has lowered its economic growth forecast for the Eurozone, which dampens expectations for import demand, compounded by ongoing trade policy uncertainties from the U.S. [3] Group 2 - The end of the rush period for U.S. shipping has led to a slowdown in inventory replenishment by cargo owners, resulting in a return of capacity that was previously diverted to the European route [4] - On the supply side, a significant increase in U.S. shipping cancellations in May has led to a reallocation of capacity to the European route, increasing supply [5] - The traditional retail inventory replenishment season in Europe has not yet started, leading to a current market characterized by "high prices but low activity" [5] Group 3 - Future attention should be focused on the Red Sea detour ratio, which remains above 75%, as this detour reduces effective capacity by about 30%, providing support for price floors [6] - If the situation in the Red Sea worsens or if trade policies in Europe and the U.S. ease, prices could potentially break previous highs [6] - The current shipping index for Europe is in a phase of "macroeconomic expectation adjustment" and "seasonal industry competition," necessitating close monitoring of shipping companies' pricing strategies and geopolitical developments [6]