Core Viewpoint - The healthcare sector is anticipated to potentially rebound in 2026, with several attractive stocks identified for investment, including AbbVie, Eli Lilly, and Intuitive Surgical. AbbVie - AbbVie is recognized as a reliable dividend payer, boasting 54 consecutive payout increases, qualifying it as a Dividend King [3] - The company reported third-quarter revenue of $15.8 billion, reflecting a 9% increase year-over-year [4] - AbbVie's product portfolio includes key drugs such as Vraylar, Botox Therapeutics, Qulipta, Skyrizi, and Rinvoq, which are expected to drive future growth [6][8] - Skyrizi is projected to become the second best-selling drug globally by 2030, with estimated sales of $26.6 billion [7] Eli Lilly - Eli Lilly's third-quarter revenue reached $17.6 billion, marking a significant 54% year-over-year growth [9] - The company is leveraging tirzepatide, marketed as Zepbound and Mounjaro, to sustain its growth trajectory, alongside promising pipeline candidates like orforglipron [10] - Eli Lilly is diversifying its portfolio, with recent launches in oncology, including Jaypirca for mantle cell lymphoma and Inluriyo for breast cancer [13] - The company's strategic investments in artificial intelligence and other therapeutic areas position it favorably for future growth [14] Intuitive Surgical - Intuitive Surgical faces challenges from tariffs and increased competition, particularly from Medtronic's Hugo system [15] - Despite these challenges, the company maintains a strong economic moat with 10,763 da Vinci systems installed, which creates high switching costs for customers [16] - The da Vinci system has over two decades of clinical evidence supporting its effectiveness, allowing Intuitive Surgical to command significant pricing power [18] - The company is expected to benefit from label expansions and increased procedure volumes, which will enhance revenue and margins over time [19]

Core Insights - The 2025 Medicare negotiation results indicate a significant and ongoing impact on the innovative drug industry, with expectations of continued price reductions rather than a one-time event [3][8] - The second round of negotiations confirmed that high discount rates will persist, reshaping the industry's operational landscape and investor expectations [8][20] Group 1: Medicare Negotiation Outcomes - The second round of negotiations involved 15 high-cost drugs, with price reductions reaching up to 85%, and 11 drugs seeing discounts over 50% [5][8] - Notable drugs affected include Ozempic, which saw a price drop from $959 to $274 per month, representing a 71% reduction, saving patients approximately $8,220 annually [19][20] - The consistency in high discount rates between the first and second rounds signals a shift towards a systematic approach to drug pricing reform [8][18] Group 2: Industry Implications - The innovative drug industry's business model is being fundamentally rewritten, with lifecycle values of mature drugs entering a "compression era" due to systematic price reductions [22][24] - The commercialization timeline for innovative drugs is being forced to accelerate, requiring companies to maximize revenue in the early years post-launch [24][26] - The valuation of innovative drugs is shifting from "story pricing" to "cash flow pricing," emphasizing immediate revenue generation over long-term high pricing [26][30] Group 3: Future Landscape - The second round of negotiations has clarified the future regulatory environment, reducing uncertainty and allowing companies to plan around stable policy parameters [29][30] - The focus of competition is shifting back to the core aspects of innovation, such as product quality, clinical differentiation, and commercialization capabilities [30][31] - The industry is entering a new phase characterized by efficiency, speed, and differentiation, which may lead to a healthier and more transparent market for truly valuable innovations [30][31]

Core Insights - AbbVie's neuroscience franchise has transitioned into a significant growth driver, contributing to double-digit growth and increasing its share of the overall topline [1][8] Neuroscience Segment Performance - Neuroscience drugs now represent approximately 18% of AbbVie's total revenue, with Q3 sales growing by 20% year over year, primarily due to strong sales of Botox Therapeutic, Qulipta, and Ubrelvy [2][8] - Sales of Vraylar, a depression drug, increased by 7% year over year to $934 million, supported by consistent demand and positive physician feedback [3] - The newly approved Parkinson's disease therapy Vyalev generated $138 million in sales during Q3, marking a 40% sequential increase [3] Future Growth Prospects - AbbVie's neuroscience franchise is expected to expand further, with plans to introduce new therapies, including tavapadon, a once-daily oral treatment for Parkinson's disease, which is anticipated to launch next year [4] Competitive Landscape - Major competitors in the neuroscience space include Biogen and Johnson & Johnson, both of which are diversifying their portfolios with new therapies [5][6] - Biogen is focusing on novel neuroscience therapies due to declining revenues in its multiple sclerosis franchise, while J&J continues to grow its portfolio with products like Caplyta, recently approved for major depressive disorder [5][6] Valuation and Market Performance - AbbVie shares have outperformed the industry year to date, trading at a slight premium with a P/E ratio of 16.76 compared to the industry average of 16.71 [7][10] - Bottom-line estimates for 2025 have declined, while those for 2026 have remained stable [11]

Core Insights - The healthcare sector is considered recession-resistant due to the inelastic demand for medical services, making it a stable investment during economic fluctuations [1] - Established healthcare companies, particularly in pharmaceuticals and medical devices, have strong profits and cash flows that support consistent dividend payments and growth [2] Company Analysis: AbbVie - AbbVie has a 53-year history of increasing dividends, recently announcing a 5.5% increase, with a current yield of approximately 3.3% [3] - The company is experiencing significant growth from its immunology drugs Skyrizi and Rinvoq, which saw sales growth of 47% and 35% respectively in Q3 2025, contributing to projected combined sales exceeding $25 billion for the year [4] - AbbVie's neuroscience portfolio is also growing, with over 20% sales growth driven by drugs like Ubrelvy and Vraylar, leading to total net revenue of nearly $15.8 billion in Q3, a 9% year-over-year increase [5] - Despite a 38% year-over-year decline in diluted earnings due to increased R&D charges, AbbVie's adjusted EPS of $1.86 surpassed Wall Street expectations [6][8] - The company has been actively acquiring firms to diversify its portfolio, including a recent $2.1 billion acquisition of Capstan Therapeutics, enhancing its immunology pipeline [7] Company Analysis: Johnson & Johnson - Johnson & Johnson has increased its dividend for 63 consecutive years, reflecting a strong commitment to shareholder returns [10] - The company generated approximately $20 billion in free cash flow in 2024, with a manageable dividend payout ratio of around 50%, allowing for future increases [11] - Johnson & Johnson holds a rare AAA credit rating, indicating exceptional financial strength [12] - The company is focusing on six priority growth areas: oncology, immunology, neuroscience, cardiovascular, surgery, and vision products, with Q3 2025 sales reaching about $24 billion, a 6.8% increase year-over-year [14] - Key growth products include Darzalex, Tremfya, and Carvykti, with the oncology segment showing nearly 20% operational sales growth [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - The healthcare industry is characterized by its resilience and defensive nature, making it less sensitive to economic cycles, which provides stability during market volatility and economic slowdowns [1][2]. Group 1: AbbVie - AbbVie has successfully transitioned from the loss of exclusivity of its key drug Humira by focusing on newer products, including immunology drugs Skyrizi and Rinvoq, which have shown strong sales growth [3][4]. - The company has secured a patent settlement for Rinvoq, extending its exclusivity in the U.S. until 2037, with projected annual revenues of $11 billion by 2027 for Rinvoq and $20 billion for Skyrizi [4]. - AbbVie reported a worldwide net revenue of $15.4 billion in Q2 2025, a 6.6% increase year over year, with immunology net revenue rising 9.5% and neuroscience revenue increasing by 24.2% [7]. - AbbVie has a strong dividend history, being a Dividend King with over 50 consecutive years of dividend increases, currently yielding about 2.8% [8]. Group 2: Medtronic - Medtronic has a diversified portfolio of medical devices across four segments: Cardiovascular, medical surgical, neuroscience, and diabetes, with the cardiovascular segment generating approximately $12.5 billion in revenue in fiscal 2025 [9][10]. - The neuroscience segment produced over $9.8 billion in revenue in fiscal 2025, with both cardiovascular and neuroscience segments accounting for nearly 70% of total revenue [11]. - The FDA approved Medtronic's BrainSense adaptive deep brain stimulation system for Parkinson's disease, marking a significant advancement in managing symptoms [12]. - Medtronic plans to separate its lower-margin diabetes business into a standalone company to focus on higher-margin growth areas [14]. - Following engagement with Elliott Investment Management, Medtronic appointed new board members and established committees to enhance growth and operational efficiency [15]. - Medtronic has a nearly 50-year history of increasing dividends, with a current yield of about 3% [17].

Core Insights - AbbVie reported revenue of $15.78 billion for the quarter ended September 2025, reflecting a 9.1% increase year-over-year and surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $15.59 billion by 1.2% [1] - The company's EPS was $1.86, down from $3.00 in the same quarter last year, but exceeded the consensus estimate of $1.77 by 5.08% [1] Revenue Performance by Segment - Oncology (Elahere) generated $170 million, below the average estimate of $199.05 million, but showed a year-over-year increase of 22.3% [4] - Creon (US) reported $368 million, exceeding the estimate of $350.08 million, with an 8.9% year-over-year growth [4] - Rinvoq (International) achieved $625 million, surpassing the estimate of $606.08 million, marking a significant 40.8% increase year-over-year [4] - Humira (US) revenue was $619 million, significantly below the estimate of $764.72 million, reflecting a drastic year-over-year decline of 64.9% [4] - Neuroscience total revenue reached $2.84 billion, exceeding the estimate of $2.74 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 20.2% [4] - Vraylar total revenue was $934 million, slightly below the estimate of $946.65 million, showing a year-over-year growth of 6.7% [4] - Immunology total revenue was $7.89 billion, in line with the estimate of $7.88 billion, representing an 11.9% year-over-year increase [4] - Rinvoq total revenue was $2.18 billion, slightly above the estimate of $2.16 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 35.3% [4] - Botox Therapeutic total revenue was $985 million, exceeding the estimate of $922.4 million, with a year-over-year increase of 16.2% [4] - Juvederm Collection total revenue was $253 million, slightly below the estimate of $257.9 million, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 1.9% [4] - Botox Cosmetic total revenue was $637 million, below the estimate of $686.58 million, with a year-over-year decrease of 5.1% [4] - Imbruvica revenue was $706 million, slightly below the estimate of $708.25 million, showing a year-over-year decline of 14.7% [4] Stock Performance - AbbVie shares have returned -3.5% over the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +2.1% change, indicating underperformance relative to the broader market [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting it may perform in line with the market in the near term [3]

Core Insights - AbbVie is facing pressure from the Trump administration for steeper cuts in Medicare drug price negotiations, with discounts potentially reaching up to 79% for certain drugs in 2024 [1] - The company reported a decline in quarterly sales of its aesthetic products, including Botox, which fell by 3.7% year-over-year, leading to a more than 4% drop in AbbVie shares [2] - AbbVie raised its 2025 profit forecast due to strong sales of newer immunology drugs, Skyrizi and Rinvoq, despite challenges in its aesthetics business [4][5] Group 1: Drug Price Negotiations - The Trump administration is advocating for deeper discounts in Medicare drug price negotiations, which are set to take effect in 2027 [2] - Last year, the Biden administration aimed to save $6 billion in 2026 through negotiations on top-selling prescription drugs, with AbbVie's Imbruvica facing a 38% cut [4] Group 2: Financial Performance - AbbVie expects adjusted annual profit per share for 2025 to be between $10.61 and $10.65, an increase from the previous expectation of $10.38 to $10.58 [5] - The company reported quarterly sales of $15.78 billion, surpassing analysts' average estimate of $15.59 billion, and anticipates fourth-quarter net sales of $16.3 billion for 2025 [7] Group 3: Market Challenges - The aesthetics business is experiencing headwinds, with concerns about the economy and inflation affecting customer spending [6][7] - Analysts have expressed concerns that continued weaker performance in the aesthetics segment could impact investor confidence [6]

Core Insights - AbbVie Inc. reported third-quarter 2025 sales of $15.78 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $15.59 billion, with a reported sales increase of 9.1% and an operational increase of 8.4% [1] - Adjusted earnings per share were $1.86, down 38% year-over-year, but above the consensus of $1.79 [1] - The company raised its quarterly dividend from $1.64 to $1.73 per share, reflecting confidence in its financial performance [1][2] Sales Performance - The immunology portfolio generated $7.89 billion in global net revenues, up 11.9% (+11.2% operationally), driven by Skyrizi sales of $4.71 billion (+46.8%) and Rinvoq sales of $2.18 billion (+35.3%); however, Humira sales fell to $993 million (-55.4%) [2] - The oncology portfolio saw sales of $1.68 billion, a slight decrease of 0.03% (-1.3%), with Imbruvica revenues at $706 million (-14.8%) and Venclexta revenues at $726 million (+7.1%) [3] - Neuroscience portfolio sales increased by 20.2% to $2.84 billion, with Vraylar revenues at $934 million (+6.7%) and Botox Therapeutics at $985 million (+16.1%) [3] Guidance and Future Outlook - AbbVie raised its fiscal 2025 adjusted earnings guidance to a range of $10.61-$10.65 per share, compared to the previous range of $10.38-$10.58, against a consensus of $10.53 [4] - The updated guidance accounts for a $2.05 per share negative impact from acquired IPR&D and milestone expenses incurred year-to-date [4] Analyst Commentary - Analysts from William Blair noted that AbbVie's immunology and inflammation franchises are exceeding expectations, contributing positively to total revenue growth [5] - There are anticipated growth drivers in the Parkinson's disease franchise and potential from the late-stage ADC portfolio [5] - AbbVie shares are currently trading at 15.8 times the 2026 consensus EPS, which does not fully reflect the company's growth profile, leading to an Outperform rating from analysts [6]

Core Insights - AbbVie reported strong financial results for Q3 2025, with net revenues of $15.776 billion, reflecting a 9.1% increase on a reported basis and 8.4% on an operational basis [3][4] - The company is raising its adjusted diluted EPS guidance for 2025 from a range of $10.38 - $10.58 to $10.61 - $10.65, despite an unfavorable impact of $2.05 per share related to acquired IPR&D and milestones expense [6][3] - AbbVie announced a 5.5% increase in its quarterly cash dividend, raising it from $1.64 to $1.73 per share, effective February 2026 [7] Financial Performance - Q3 2025 diluted EPS was $0.10 on a GAAP basis, a decrease of 88.6%, while adjusted diluted EPS was $1.86, down 38.0% [3][4] - Gross margin for Q3 was 66.4% on a GAAP basis and 83.9% adjusted [4] - Operating margin was reported at 12.1% on a GAAP basis and 30.9% adjusted [4] Revenue Breakdown - Immunology portfolio generated $7.885 billion in Q3, up 11.9% reported and 11.2% operationally; Skyrizi and Rinvoq saw significant growth [4][13] - Neuroscience portfolio revenues reached $2.841 billion, a 20.2% increase reported and 19.6% operationally [4][14] - Oncology portfolio revenues were $1.682 billion, showing a slight decrease of 0.3% reported and 1.3% operationally [4][14] - Aesthetics portfolio revenues totaled $1.193 billion, down 3.7% reported and 4.2% operationally [4][14] Product Highlights - Skyrizi net revenues were $4.708 billion, an increase of 46.8% reported [4][13] - Rinvoq net revenues reached $2.184 billion, up 35.3% reported [4][13] - Humira net revenues fell to $993 million, a decrease of 55.4% reported [4][14] Pipeline and Innovation - AbbVie received FDA approval for Rinvoq's updated indication for ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease, allowing its use before TNF blockers [5] - Positive results were reported for Rinvoq in treating severe alopecia areata and non-segmental vitiligo [5] - AbbVie completed the acquisition of Capstan Therapeutics, enhancing its pipeline in autoimmune diseases [5] Future Outlook - The company is committed to investing over $10 billion in U.S. capital to support innovation and expand manufacturing capabilities [5] - AbbVie plans to launch Elahere in the U.K. at a price equal to that in the U.S., reflecting its commitment to value recognition [5]

Core Insights - AbbVie is expected to report Q3 2025 earnings on October 31, with sales estimated at $15.59 billion and earnings per share (EPS) at $1.80, although earnings estimates have declined from $12.02 to $10.81 in the past month [1][4][20] Financial Performance - AbbVie has consistently exceeded earnings expectations in the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 2.46% [2][3] - The company anticipates adjusted earnings between $1.74 and $1.78 per share for Q3 2025, with net revenues around $15.5 billion [6] Product Performance - Sales growth is expected to be driven by newer immunology drugs, Skyrizi and Rinvoq, with consensus estimates for Skyrizi at $4.56 billion and Rinvoq at $2.16 billion [7] - Humira, AbbVie's blockbuster drug, is projected to generate $1.15 billion in sales, facing erosion due to lost patent protection [8] - In oncology, sales of Imbruvica are expected to decline due to competition, while Venclexta sales are anticipated to rise [9][10] - Neuroscience product sales are estimated at $2.74 billion, driven by strong performances from Botox, Vraylar, and new migraine drugs [12][11] - Aesthetics product sales are projected to recover to $1.27 billion, supported by stabilizing demand in the U.S. market [13] Stock Performance and Valuation - AbbVie's stock has increased over 28% this year, outperforming the industry and S&P 500 [15] - The stock is trading at a P/E ratio of 16.60, above the industry average of 15.58 and its five-year mean of 13.27 [18] Strategic Outlook - AbbVie is expected to achieve robust revenue growth in 2025, with a projected high single-digit revenue CAGR through 2029, driven by Skyrizi and Rinvoq [20] - Recent acquisitions and licensing deals have increased near-term expenses, impacting EPS estimates negatively [22][23] - Short-term investors may consider selling due to elevated IPR&D expenses, while long-term investors may remain optimistic about the company's growth potential [24]