Gold surged for a ninth straight day, breaking above $5,550 as rising geopolitical tensions and expectations of Federal Reserve easing boosted demand. Oil also advanced as concerns over Iran intensified.The precious metal rose 1.5% on Thursday, extending its rally this year to 27%. Silver climbed almost 1% to an all-time high as precious metals continued their breakneck advance. West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose to the highest level since September after President Donald Trump warned Iran to make a nuc ...

The precious metal rose 1.5% on Thursday, extending its rally this year to 27%. Silver climbed almost 1% to an all-time high as precious metals continued their breakneck advance. West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose to the highest level since September after President Donald Trump warned Iran to make a nuclear deal. Trump warned Iran to make a nuclear deal with the US or face military strikes far worse than the attack he ordered last June, increasing pressure on the regime and propelling oil prices highe ...

Core Viewpoint - West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices experienced a decline due to geopolitical tensions and an anticipated increase in U.S. crude inventories, which overshadowed a temporary output halt in Kazakhstan's large fields [1] Group 1: Price Movement - West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices fell on Wednesday [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - Geopolitical tensions exerted pressure on oil prices [1] - An expected build-up in U.S. crude inventories contributed to the price decline [1] - A temporary halt in output at two large fields in Kazakhstan was not sufficient to counteract the downward pressure on prices [1]

Core Insights - West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices have fallen below the $60 per barrel mark as geopolitical tensions have eased [1] - Both WTI and Brent oil benchmarks experienced a decline of more than 4% at one point during Thursday trading [1]

Group 1: Geopolitical Impact on Oil Markets - The recent capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro by the United States may lead to a revitalization of Venezuela's energy industry, which has significant oil reserves but suffers from poor infrastructure [2][3] - Venezuela holds 303 billion barrels of oil reserves, accounting for about 20% of the world's total, yet contributes less than 1% to global oil production due to years of sanctions and mismanagement [3][4] - Analysts predict that any significant impact on oil supply or prices from Venezuela will take years to materialize, with current forecasts for US fuel prices expected to average $2.97 a gallon in 2026 [4] Group 2: Market Reactions and Company Performance - Energy companies, particularly US Gulf Coast refiners, saw stock price increases following the news, with Chevron rising over 5% and other refiners like Marathon Petroleum and Valero Energy experiencing gains between 3.4% and 9.2% [5] - UBS analysts noted that geopolitical crises typically have a fleeting impact on financial markets, with historical data showing the S&P 500 was only 0.3% lower one week after major geopolitical events [5] - The International Energy Agency projects a surplus of 3.8 million barrels a day in global oil markets this year, indicating that the market can absorb shocks and uncertainty [4]

Core Insights - Oil prices experienced a significant increase due to potential disruptions in oil supply from the Middle East [1] - The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose to $58 per barrel, marking a 2.2% increase [1]

Market Performance - MSCI's regional equities gauge dropped 0.1%, marking a third consecutive day of losses, while the S&P 500 also fell for three days, and the Nasdaq 100 increased by 0.3% [1] - Tesla Inc. shares declined approximately 1% in extended trading due to a potential 30-day suspension of sales in California [1] Oil Market - West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose over 1% following President Trump's announcement of a "total and complete blockade" on sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela [2][10] - Oil prices increased from their lowest levels since 2021, with West Texas Intermediate climbing above $56 per barrel after a nearly 6% drop over the previous four sessions, while Brent settled just below $59 [10][11] Labor Market Data - Nonfarm payrolls increased by 64,000 in November after a decline of 105,000 in October, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, the highest since 2021 [7][11] - The latest US labor data indicates a cooling jobs market, leading traders to hold off on increasing bets for near-term rate cuts, with markets pricing in a roughly 20% chance of a January reduction [3][4] Economic Outlook - Analysts suggest that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to react strongly to the labor data due to disruptions from the US government shutdown, indicating uncertainty regarding the timing of the FOMC's next move [8][11] - Retail sales showed little change in October, with declines in auto dealers and gasoline receipts offsetting stronger spending in other categories [11] International Relations - The Trump administration has threatened retaliation against the European Union for efforts to tax American tech companies, targeting firms like Accenture Plc, Siemens AG, and Spotify Technology SA [9][11] - Investors are closely monitoring Chinese stocks in Hong Kong, which have approached key bearish technical levels amid concerns over economic growth and fading tech gains [9]

Group 1 - West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices fell below $55 for the first time since February 2021, driven by signs of supply outpacing demand and potential increases in Russian supply due to progress in Ukraine peace talks [1] - US crude futures decreased by as much as 3.2%, while Brent crude dropped as much as 3%, falling below $60 for the first time since May [1] - The oil market is showing signs of weakness, with Middle Eastern crude prices entering a bearish contango pattern, indicating that near-dated prices are cheaper than future delivery contracts [2] Group 2 - Demand for oil appears fragile, with elevated fuel premiums easing and weak job growth in the US suggesting a potential slowdown in demand, further pressuring prices [3] - The oil market is projected to experience a yearly loss, with supply expected to exceed demand this year and next due to increased production from OPEC and other nations [4] - The International Energy Agency estimates that the surplus in oil supply next year will be the largest on record, despite OPEC and its allies holding off on output increases [4] Group 3 - Analysts indicate that the decline in oil prices may provide relief to central bankers aiming to cut interest rates by alleviating inflationary pressures, as US retail gasoline prices have fallen to their lowest level since 2021 [5] - However, the low prices pose a threat to the budgets of oil-producing nations and companies, as many OPEC producers require higher prices to balance their budgets [6] - Future recovery in oil prices will likely depend on stronger demand or clearer supply restraint, as the current selloff accelerates due to evidence of supply exceeding demand [6]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street's top investment banks predict challenging years for the oil industry in 2026 and 2027 following a nearly 20% decline in oil prices in 2023 [1] Price Forecasts - JPMorgan's commodities team forecasts Brent crude oil to fall to $58 per barrel in 2026, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trading $4 below this level; prices are expected to decline by another $1 per barrel in 2027 [2] - Goldman Sachs predicts Brent and WTI prices at $56 and $52 per barrel respectively for the next year, with expectations of recovery to $80 and $76 per barrel by 2028, assuming oversupply does not persist [3][4] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The oil market is characterized by oversupply, with global supply continuing to rise despite robust demand; this trend is expected to persist into the next year [5] - OPEC+ has increased output by more than 2 million barrels per day since April, while US shale production is projected to reach record highs in December [6] - Heavy stockpiling by China absorbed much of the excess supply in the first half of 2025, supporting prices [6] Market Conditions - Demand from the Middle East remains stable, and Indian refiners are increasing purchases of Urals crude from Russia; however, over 1 billion barrels are currently stored in tankers globally, marking the highest level since 2023 [7] - The International Energy Agency anticipates a supply glut in 2026, predicting an overhang of 4 million barrels per day [7]

Core Insights - Oil prices are experiencing a three-day decline as investors evaluate the effects of Western sanctions on major Russian crude producers and mixed estimates of US inventory changes [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Brent crude is trading above $64 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate is near $60 [2]. - The market is assessing the long-term impact of additional sanctions, which will depend on the actual volume of barrels removed from supply [4]. - Oil is on track for a third consecutive monthly decline, influenced by expectations of a global surplus as OPEC+ plans to increase production [5]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The US plans to enforce stringent new sanctions against Russia to pressure President Putin into negotiations regarding the Ukraine conflict [2]. - Indian state-owned refiners are evaluating their ability to continue purchasing discounted Russian oil under the new sanctions, with Indian Oil Corp. stating it will maintain purchases as long as it complies with international sanctions [3]. Group 3: Inventory Reports - A US industry report indicated a 4-million-barrel decrease in nationwide crude holdings, alongside reductions in gasoline and distillates [6]. - However, there was an increase in inventories at the key hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, with official figures expected to be released later [6].