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华创证券:维持泡泡玛特(09992)“强推”评级 目标价345.39港元
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-11-05 09:13
国内市场:三季度公司密集推新,线上渠道增速表现亮眼。三季度以来,公司产能规模逐步提升,叠加 预售模式下消费者需求逐步满足,有效拉动销售增长。分渠道看,中国(含港澳台)三季度线下渠道收入 同比+130%-135%,线上渠道收入同比+300%-305%。新品方面,公司8月推出的迷你版LABUBU、9月 推出的星星人美味时刻毛绒挂件发售时二级市场均有明显溢价,公司推爆品能力持续验证;今年公司针 对万圣节等节点的产品储备更加充分,已经推出的Why So Serious、Hirono诡乐园两款万圣相关新品热 度不减。同时,公司2025年10月12日至11月8日在上海举办的十周年全球巡 展"MONSTERSBYMONSTERS: NOWANDTHEN"吸引苹果CEO到访,品牌知名度持续提升。 海外市场:延续高增势头,联名款产品有望成为重要抓手。分地区看,亚太市场收入同比增长 170%-175%,美洲市场收入同比增长1265%-1270%,欧洲及其他地区收入同比增长735%-740%。近期, Netflix美剧《星期三》第二季热播,公司围绕SKULLPANDA推出星期三联名产品,Tik-Tok上反馈积 极,官方美国账号相关 ...
华创证券:维持泡泡玛特“强推”评级 目标价345.39港元
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-11-05 09:10
国内市场:三季度公司密集推新,线上渠道增速表现亮眼。三季度以来,公司产能规模逐步提升,叠加 预售模式下消费者需求逐步满足,有效拉动销售增长。分渠道看,中国(含港澳台)三季度线下渠道收入 同比+130%-135%,线上渠道收入同比+300%-305%。新品方面,公司8月推出的迷你版LABUBU、9月 推出的星星人美味时刻毛绒挂件发售时二级市场均有明显溢价,公司推爆品能力持续验证;今年公司针 对万圣节等节点的产品储备更加充分,已经推出的Why So Serious、Hirono诡乐园两款万圣相关新品热 度不减。同时,公司2025年10月12日至11月8日在上海举办的十周年全球巡 展"MONSTERSBYMONSTERS:NOWANDTHEN"吸引苹果CEO到访,品牌知名度持续提升。 海外市场:延续高增势头,联名款产品有望成为重要抓手。分地区看,亚太市场收入同比增长 170%-175%,美洲市场收入同比增长1265%-1270%,欧洲及其他地区收入同比增长735%-740%。近期, Netflix美剧《星期三》第二季热播,公司围绕SKULLPANDA推出星期三联名产品,Tik-Tok上反馈积 极,官方美国账号相关视 ...
泡泡玛特(9992.HK):高基数下Q3超预期 旺季新品势能强劲
Ge Long Hui· 2025-10-24 04:57
Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue growth of 245-250% in Q3 2025, accelerating from 204% in H1 2025, driven by strong performance in both domestic and international markets [1] - The growth was supported by increased plush toy production capacity and the success of new IPs in various regions, including Europe, North America, and Asia-Pacific [2][3] - The company maintains a "Buy" rating, with expectations for continued strong performance in Q4 due to a rich lineup of new products and a diversified IP strategy [4] Revenue Growth - Domestic revenue is expected to grow by 185-190%, while international revenue is projected to increase by 365-370% in Q3 2025 [1] - Online sales are anticipated to rise by 300-305%, with an estimated online penetration rate of 45-50%, surpassing historical peaks [2] - Offline revenue is expected to grow by 130-135%, with a doubling of average store efficiency compared to previous quarters [2] Regional Performance - Revenue growth in the Asia-Pacific region is projected at 170-175%, while North America and Europe are expected to see increases of 1265-1270% and 735-740%, respectively [3] - The company opened approximately 6 new stores in Asia-Pacific, 10 in North America, and 4 in Europe, maintaining a rapid expansion pace [3] Product and Market Strategy - The company is preparing for a strong Q4 with new product launches, including Halloween and Christmas-themed items, which are expected to boost sales [4] - The company is focusing on diversifying its business through collaborations with top global IPs and brands, expanding into new product categories such as desserts and accessories [4] Financial Projections - Adjusted net profit estimates for 2025-2027 have been raised by 17%, 9%, and 7% to 135 billion, 185 billion, and 237 billion respectively [4] - The target price has been increased to 410 HKD, reflecting a target PE of 27x for 2026, adjusted from 29x due to changes in market risk preferences [4]