Core Viewpoint - Bubble Mart is expected to achieve significant revenue growth of no less than 200% in H1 2025, with Q2 growth potentially exceeding 220%, indicating a strong acceleration compared to Q1's growth of 165-170% [1] - The company's net profit is projected to increase by no less than 350%, reflecting its established global influence in the IP market and ongoing innovation in product categories [1] Group 1 - The strong performance in Q2 is driven by the continued success of the plush toy category, with average store efficiency in China increasing by 60% and online sales on platforms like Tmall, JD, and Douyin growing over 170% [2] - The Labubu plush toy has generated significant demand since its launch, maintaining high premium rates despite continuous restocking, indicating robust consumer interest [2] - The company's IP matrix is benefiting from the popularity of Labubu, with cross-IP purchasing expected to increase, further enhanced by upcoming product launches and animation projects [2] Group 2 - The company opened over 30 new stores overseas in H1, with significant expansions in North America, Europe, and Southeast Asia, contributing to improved store efficiency [3] - The projected net profit for H1 is approximately 4.34 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 31.7%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of over 10 percentage points due to enhanced operational leverage and a growing share of overseas revenue [3] - Looking ahead to H2, the company anticipates continued improvement in profitability driven by increased overseas supply chain contributions and the expansion of diverse business formats [3] Group 3 - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been significantly raised, with adjusted net profits expected to reach 10.2 billion yuan, 15.2 billion yuan, and 19.7 billion yuan respectively, reflecting strong growth potential [3] - The target price for the company's stock has been increased by 16% to 348 HKD, based on a higher adjusted PE ratio of 42x for 2025, acknowledging the company's high growth and global IP influence [3]

证券研究报告 泡泡玛特 (9992 HK) 港股通 1H25 利润预增 350%+，迈向全球 IP 龙头 考虑海外破圈势能强劲带动收入高增，以及海外市场提价和经营杠杆释放带 动利润率提升，我们上调 2025-27 年经调整净利润 56.9%/68.9%/68.4%至 102/152/197 亿元（前值 65/90/117 亿元）。参考彭博可比公司 25 年 PE 一致预期 37x，考虑公司高成长性及全球 IP 影响力溢价，给予 25 年 42x 经 调整 PE，上调目标价 16%至 348 港元（人民币兑港币 0.92，目标价使用 经调后 EPS 与 PE 计算，前值 300 港元），维持"买入"评级。 2025 年 7 月 16 日│中国香港 消费轻工 泡泡玛特公布 1H25 业绩预告，预计收入同增不低于 200%（我们测算对应 不低于 136.7 亿元，Q2 增速或超 220%，较 Q1 +165~170%明显提速）， 预计集团溢利（不含未完成统计的金融工具公允价值变动损益）同增不低于 350%。泡泡玛特旗下 IP 的全球影响力确立，看好公司迈向全球领先的潮流 IP 平台，通过品类创新持续突破 IP 价值 ...