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小鹏汽车:管理层调研-2026 年车型管线充足,量产可见性提升,新兴业务可期;给予 “买入” 评级
2025-11-28 01:46
Summary of XPeng Inc. (XPEV) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: XPeng Inc. (XPEV) - **Industry**: Electric Vehicles (EV) and Intelligent Driving Key Insights 1. **Strong Order Expectations**: XPeng anticipates strong orders to counter industry challenges in 2026, driven by the X9 EREV and new model launches in 1Q26 and 2Q26 and beyond [1][5][7] 2. **Volume Production Initiatives**: The company is set to begin volume production of new models, which is crucial for real-world applications and technology advancement [2][5] 3. **Revenue Growth Projections**: XPeng projects a 27% year-over-year revenue growth in 2026, fueled by new model launches including the X9 EREV and several other models [2][5] 4. **Operating Profit Break-even**: The company expects to achieve non-GAAP operating profit break-even by 4Q25E [2] 5. **Robotaxi Development**: XPeng aims to obtain a license for Robotaxi trial operations in 2H26, starting with an in-house fleet in Guangzhou [7] 6. **Humanoid Robots Production**: The company targets production of several hundred humanoid robots next year, leveraging synergies between vehicle and robotics technology [7] 7. **Overseas Expansion Plans**: XPeng plans to establish 300 stores in 60 countries by the end of 2025, with localized production in Indonesia and Austria [7] 8. **Collaboration with Volkswagen**: The partnership with Volkswagen has generated over RMB 1 billion in service revenue, with expectations for continued revenue growth in 2026 [7] Additional Important Points 1. **Competitive Advantages**: XPeng's strengths include large data sets from its NEV fleet, in-house design and production capabilities, and technology synergies across different business lines [2] 2. **Model Launch Timeline**: The company plans to launch four new models in 2Q26, including a large 6-seat SUV and two Mona SUVs [5][7] 3. **Technological Advancements**: XPeng is transitioning to AI model-driven autonomous driving, moving away from rule-based models, and has no reliance on HD maps [7] 4. **Financial Metrics**: XPeng's market cap is approximately $20.1 billion, with projected revenues of RMB 40.87 billion in 2025 and RMB 107.54 billion in 2026 [9] Risks and Considerations - **Price Target Risks**: Risks include lower-than-expected sales volume, increased price competition, and weaker market demand [8]
Goldman Sachs Lifts XPeng (XPEV) Target to $25, Keeps Buy Rating
Yahoo Finance· 2025-11-26 19:50
XPeng Inc. (NYSE:XPEV) is one of the Chinese tech stocks to buy now. On November 19, Goldman Sachs raised its price target on XPeng Inc. (NYSE:XPEV) stock from $24 to $25, keeping a Buy rating. The investment bank expects stronger sales performance for XPeng in early 2026 – this is after XPeng launches extended-range electric vehicle (EREV) versions of the G6, G7, and P7+ models. Goldman stated that pre-order data for the X9 EREV suggests the new versions could generate three times more orders than standar ...
XPENG INC.(9868.HK):NON-VEHICLE BUSINESS AND PROSPECTS COULD SUPPORT VALUATION PREMIUM BUT YET TO JUSTIFY VALUATION SWITCH TO SOTP
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-19 11:55
Core Viewpoint - XPeng's 3Q25 total revenue increased by 11.5% QoQ to RMB20.4 billion, but the revenue structure showed mixed results with vehicle sales underperforming due to a decline in average selling price (ASP) while service revenue surged, driven by technological services from Volkswagen [1][2][3] Revenue Performance - Total revenue for 3Q25 reached RMB20.4 billion, reflecting an 11.5% QoQ growth, aligning with estimates, but vehicle sales only grew by 6.9% QoQ, missing projections due to a significant drop in blended ASP [2] - Services and other revenue nearly doubled QoQ to RMB2.33 billion, exceeding expectations due to milestone payments from Volkswagen [2] Margin Analysis - Vehicle margin decreased by 0.8 percentage points QoQ to 13.1%, slightly below estimates, attributed to weaker demand for key launches and early-stage deliveries of new models [3] - Blended gross margin improved by 2.8 percentage points QoQ to 20.1%, driven by high-margin service revenue, which accounted for 42% of gross profit [3] Delivery Guidance - 4Q25 delivery guidance is set at 125,000-132,000 units, indicating a potential pullback in November deliveries due to softer end-user demand and delays in new models [4] - For 2026, XPeng plans to launch three super EREV products and four new dual-powertrain models, aiming to capture niche demand trends [4] AI and Technological Advancements - At the 2025 AI Tech Day, XPeng introduced its AI blueprint, including next-gen AI models and robotaxi capabilities, positioning itself as a leader in AI-driven mobility [5] - Plans for three Robotaxi models and mass production of humanoid robots by the end of 2026 were announced, indicating ambitious expansion into AI-driven sectors [5] Valuation Adjustments - Revenue forecasts for 2025-26 have been revised down by 6-7% to RMB77.2 billion and RMB110.3 billion, respectively, reflecting weaker delivery guidance and ASP erosion [6] - Despite recent AI advancements, it is deemed premature to shift valuation methodologies due to the early stage of these initiatives [6][7]