Core Insights - Northeast Securities initiates coverage on XPeng Motors (09868) with a "Buy" rating, highlighting record-high delivery volumes, revenue, and gross margin in Q3 2025, driven by a dual-energy strategy and new vehicle launches [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, XPeng Motors achieved total revenue of 20.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 101.8%, with net losses significantly narrowing to 380 million yuan [1] - The total delivery volume reached 116,007 units, marking a year-on-year growth of 149.3%, setting a historical record [1] - The company's gross margin surpassed 20% for the first time, reaching 20.1%, indicating a notable improvement in profitability [1] Group 2: Product Strategy - To address user range anxiety, XPeng Motors launched a "pure electric + range extender" dual-energy strategy, with the first range-extended model, X9 EREV, officially launched in November 2025 [2] - The X9 EREV features a 63.3 kWh battery and a third-generation range extender with an efficiency of over 3.6 kWh/L, achieving a CLTC pure electric range of 452 km [2] - Additional range-extended versions of key models such as G6, G7, and P7i are expected to be released in Q1 2026, along with four new models including two SUVs based on the MONA platform [2] Group 3: AI Strategy and Technological Advancements - XPeng Motors is transitioning towards a "physical AI" company, showcasing its commitment and specific pathways during the 2025 Technology Day [3] - The core technology, VLA 2.0, is a second-generation visual-language-action model that enhances reasoning efficiency by 12 times and improves average takeover mileage in complex scenarios by 13 times [3] - The company plans to fully deploy VLA 2.0 in Ultra models by Q1 2026 and aims to extend its technology to robotics and other embodied intelligence fields [3] - XPeng Motors has introduced China's first fully self-developed mass-produced Robotaxi, with plans to launch three models in 2026 and begin trial operations in the second half of 2026 [3] - The humanoid robot IRON is expected to achieve mass production by the end of 2026, initially piloting in commercial scenarios such as guiding and shopping, with AI technology synergies benefiting both the robot and autonomous driving sectors [3]

Group 1 - The company achieved a record high in total deliveries and gross margin in Q3 2025, with total revenue reaching 20.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 101.8%, and a significant reduction in net loss to 380 million yuan. Total delivery volume reached 116,007 units, a year-on-year increase of 149.3%, and the gross margin exceeded 20% for the first time, reaching 20.1% [1] - The company has launched a "dual power" strategy to address user range anxiety, introducing the first range-extended model, the X9 EREV, which features a 63.3 kWh battery and a conversion rate exceeding 3.6 kWh/L, achieving a pure electric range of 452 km. Additional range-extended versions of key models such as G6, G7, and P7i are expected to be launched in Q1 2026, along with four new models including two SUVs on the MONA platform [1] - The company is expected to enter a strong product cycle with the launch of range-extended and new models, leading to a continuous increase in vehicle sales [1] Group 2 - The company is transitioning to a "physical AI" company, showcasing its commitment and specific path at the 2025 Technology Day. The core technology, VLA 2.0, is a second-generation visual-language-action model that enhances reasoning efficiency by 12 times and improves average takeover mileage in complex scenarios by 13 times. This model is planned for full deployment on Ultra models in Q1 2026 and is expected to extend to robotics and other embodied intelligence fields [2] - The company announced the launch of China's first fully self-developed front-mounted mass-produced Robotaxi, with plans to introduce three models in 2026 and begin trial operations in H2 2026. Despite a gap in operational experience compared to industry leaders, the innovative "fully shared + private" business model may allow the company to secure a position in the billion-level mobility market [2] - The humanoid robot IRON is set to achieve mass production by the end of 2026, with initial trials in commercial scenarios such as guiding and shopping. The AI technology developed for the humanoid robot will also benefit the autonomous driving sector, creating a positive feedback loop [2] Group 3 - Revenue forecasts for the company from 2025 to 2027 are projected to be 75.8 billion, 132.1 billion, and 166.3 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 85.4%, 74.3%, and 25.9%, respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -1.55 billion, 2 billion, and 6.13 billion yuan [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Insights - The company achieved total revenue of 20.38 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 101.8%, with net loss significantly narrowing to 0.38 billion yuan. Total deliveries reached 116,007 units, up 149.3%, marking a historical high. The comprehensive gross margin exceeded 20% for the first time, reaching 20.1%, indicating a notable improvement in profitability [1][4] - The company has launched a "dual power" strategy combining pure electric and range-extended vehicles to address user range anxiety. The first range-extended model, X9 EREV, was launched in November 2025, featuring a 63.3 kWh battery and a conversion efficiency exceeding 3.6 kWh/L, achieving a pure electric range of 452 km. Additional range-extended versions of key models are expected in Q1 2026, alongside four new models in 2026, including two SUVs based on the MONA platform [2] - The company is transitioning from "smart cars" to a "physical AI" company, showcasing its commitment and specific path at the 2025 Technology Day. The core technology, VLA 2.0, enhances reasoning efficiency by 12 times and improves average takeover mileage in complex scenarios by 13 times. The model is set to be fully deployed in Ultra models by Q1 2026 and is expected to extend to robotics and other embodied intelligence fields [3] - The company forecasts revenues of 75.8 billion yuan, 132.1 billion yuan, and 166.3 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 85.4%, 74.3%, and 25.9%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be -1.55 billion yuan, 2.00 billion yuan, and 6.13 billion yuan for the same years [4][5]

Summary of XPeng Inc. (XPEV) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: XPeng Inc. (XPEV) - **Industry**: Electric Vehicles (EV) and Intelligent Driving Key Insights 1. **Strong Order Expectations**: XPeng anticipates strong orders to counter industry challenges in 2026, driven by the X9 EREV and new model launches in 1Q26 and 2Q26 and beyond [1][5][7] 2. **Volume Production Initiatives**: The company is set to begin volume production of new models, which is crucial for real-world applications and technology advancement [2][5] 3. **Revenue Growth Projections**: XPeng projects a 27% year-over-year revenue growth in 2026, fueled by new model launches including the X9 EREV and several other models [2][5] 4. **Operating Profit Break-even**: The company expects to achieve non-GAAP operating profit break-even by 4Q25E [2] 5. **Robotaxi Development**: XPeng aims to obtain a license for Robotaxi trial operations in 2H26, starting with an in-house fleet in Guangzhou [7] 6. **Humanoid Robots Production**: The company targets production of several hundred humanoid robots next year, leveraging synergies between vehicle and robotics technology [7] 7. **Overseas Expansion Plans**: XPeng plans to establish 300 stores in 60 countries by the end of 2025, with localized production in Indonesia and Austria [7] 8. **Collaboration with Volkswagen**: The partnership with Volkswagen has generated over RMB 1 billion in service revenue, with expectations for continued revenue growth in 2026 [7] Additional Important Points 1. **Competitive Advantages**: XPeng's strengths include large data sets from its NEV fleet, in-house design and production capabilities, and technology synergies across different business lines [2] 2. **Model Launch Timeline**: The company plans to launch four new models in 2Q26, including a large 6-seat SUV and two Mona SUVs [5][7] 3. **Technological Advancements**: XPeng is transitioning to AI model-driven autonomous driving, moving away from rule-based models, and has no reliance on HD maps [7] 4. **Financial Metrics**: XPeng's market cap is approximately $20.1 billion, with projected revenues of RMB 40.87 billion in 2025 and RMB 107.54 billion in 2026 [9] Risks and Considerations - **Price Target Risks**: Risks include lower-than-expected sales volume, increased price competition, and weaker market demand [8]

Group 1 - XPeng Inc. is identified as a promising investment opportunity in the Chinese tech sector, with Goldman Sachs raising its price target from $24 to $25 while maintaining a Buy rating [1] - Goldman Sachs anticipates a significant increase in XPeng's sales performance in early 2026, driven by the launch of extended-range electric vehicle (EREV) models, which are expected to generate three times more orders than standard battery electric vehicles [1] - The firm projects a 40% revenue growth for XPeng in 2026, supported by new model launches and consistent revenue from its partnership with Volkswagen [1] Group 2 - Bernstein SocGen Group reaffirmed a Market Perform rating on XPeng, maintaining a price target of $21, while noting that XPeng exceeded analyst projections in Q3 2025 [2] - Bernstein expressed concerns over XPeng's Q4 revenue guidance, predicting a revenue range of RMB 21.5 billion to RMB 23.0 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 33.5% to 42.8% [2] - Both Goldman Sachs and Bernstein agree that XPeng's higher-margin service revenue from its Volkswagen partnership and the new X9 EREV model will bolster profitability [2] Group 3 - XPeng Inc. specializes in designing and producing intelligent electric vehicles, along with developing proprietary autonomous driving software and advanced driver-assistance systems [3]

Core Viewpoint - XPeng's 3Q25 total revenue increased by 11.5% QoQ to RMB20.4 billion, but the revenue structure showed mixed results with vehicle sales underperforming due to a decline in average selling price (ASP) while service revenue surged, driven by technological services from Volkswagen [1][2][3] Revenue Performance - Total revenue for 3Q25 reached RMB20.4 billion, reflecting an 11.5% QoQ growth, aligning with estimates, but vehicle sales only grew by 6.9% QoQ, missing projections due to a significant drop in blended ASP [2] - Services and other revenue nearly doubled QoQ to RMB2.33 billion, exceeding expectations due to milestone payments from Volkswagen [2] Margin Analysis - Vehicle margin decreased by 0.8 percentage points QoQ to 13.1%, slightly below estimates, attributed to weaker demand for key launches and early-stage deliveries of new models [3] - Blended gross margin improved by 2.8 percentage points QoQ to 20.1%, driven by high-margin service revenue, which accounted for 42% of gross profit [3] Delivery Guidance - 4Q25 delivery guidance is set at 125,000-132,000 units, indicating a potential pullback in November deliveries due to softer end-user demand and delays in new models [4] - For 2026, XPeng plans to launch three super EREV products and four new dual-powertrain models, aiming to capture niche demand trends [4] AI and Technological Advancements - At the 2025 AI Tech Day, XPeng introduced its AI blueprint, including next-gen AI models and robotaxi capabilities, positioning itself as a leader in AI-driven mobility [5] - Plans for three Robotaxi models and mass production of humanoid robots by the end of 2026 were announced, indicating ambitious expansion into AI-driven sectors [5] Valuation Adjustments - Revenue forecasts for 2025-26 have been revised down by 6-7% to RMB77.2 billion and RMB110.3 billion, respectively, reflecting weaker delivery guidance and ASP erosion [6] - Despite recent AI advancements, it is deemed premature to shift valuation methodologies due to the early stage of these initiatives [6][7]