Core Insights - Tether, a major player in the cryptocurrency market, has emerged as a significant buyer of gold, holding 116 tons valued at approximately $14 billion, surpassing some national central banks [3][4] - The price of gold has surged by 56% in 2025, with Tether's purchases coinciding with this increase, particularly during the second wave of price growth from mid-August to mid-October [3][4] - The rise of gold-backed stablecoins is gaining traction, with Tether's USDT and XAUt contributing to this trend, reflecting a shift in the stablecoin market [4][7] Tether's Gold Purchases - Tether's gold purchases accounted for about 2% of global gold demand in Q3 and 12% of known central bank purchases during the same period [3] - In Q2, Tether's gold buying represented 14% of global central bank purchases, indicating its growing influence in the gold market [3] - Tether holds 104 tons of gold as reserves for USDT and an additional 12 tons for XAUt, suggesting a strategic move to bolster its asset backing [4] Market Dynamics - The gold price increase has occurred in two phases, with the first phase seeing a nearly $1,000 rise before April and the second phase mirroring this increase from August to October [3] - Tether's demand for gold may have tightened supply and influenced market sentiment, driving speculative investments into gold [4][6] - The stablecoin market is evolving, with gold-backed stablecoins becoming a new category, currently valued at $1.6 billion, representing 0.67% of the total stablecoin market [7] Regulatory Considerations - Tether's use of gold as a reserve asset contrasts with new U.S. regulations that prohibit compliant issuers from using gold as backing, leading Tether to plan a new stablecoin, USAT, that will not be gold-backed [5] - The intertwining of gold and cryptocurrency ecosystems raises questions about the stability and regulatory compliance of such assets [5][6] Future of Digital Gold - The development of digital gold is seen as timely, with potential for innovation in financial products, provided regulatory frameworks are established [7][8] - Challenges remain in ensuring transparency and security in the issuance and tracking of digital gold, as well as maintaining sufficient physical gold reserves [8] - The future landscape may see digital gold complementing physical gold rather than replacing it, enhancing the overall gold market [8]

Core Insights - The global gold market is undergoing a historic restructuring, with Russia's central bank confirming the sale of physical gold reserves to address budget needs, marking a significant shift in its strategy [1][4] - Tether, the largest stablecoin issuer, has emerged as a major player in the gold market, accumulating gold reserves comparable to those of small central banks, which has contributed to rising gold prices [1][5][6] Group 1: Russia's Gold Sales - Russia's central bank has begun selling physical gold reserves for the first time, with over 2300 tons in reserves, to compensate for budgetary shortfalls due to Western sanctions [1][4] - Since the escalation of the Ukraine crisis in February 2022, Western sanctions have frozen nearly half of Russia's foreign exchange reserves, totaling approximately €300 billion [4] - Domestic demand for gold has surged, with retail purchases expected to reach 62.2 tons this year, reflecting a shift in savings preferences among Russian consumers [4] Group 2: Tether's Gold Accumulation - Tether has rapidly increased its gold holdings, with at least 116 tons by the end of Q3, including 12 tons backing its XAUt token and approximately 104 tons supporting USDT [5][6] - The company has been identified as a significant new buyer in the gold market, with a 26-ton increase in Q3 alone, representing about 2% of global demand [1][6] - Tether's CEO has indicated plans to continue increasing gold reserves, with projections suggesting potential annual increases of nearly 60 tons based on future profits [7][8] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The rising gold prices, which have increased over 50% this year, are influenced by Tether's accumulation strategy and the ongoing sales from Russia [1][5] - Tether's broader investment strategy includes over $300 million in royalties and streaming companies, indicating a comprehensive approach to its gold market involvement [8] - The introduction of a new stablecoin, USAT, which does not require gold reserves, introduces uncertainty regarding the long-term demand for USDT and gold [8]

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Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to Tether's significant accumulation of gold, which has tightened supply and contributed to the price rally, rather than traditional market drivers [1]. Group 1: Tether's Gold Accumulation - Tether has reportedly aimed to purchase around 100 tons of gold in 2023, following meetings with miners and royalty firms [2]. - Analysts estimate Tether held at least 116 tons of gold by the end of Q3 2023, with 12 tons backing its XAUt token and approximately 104 tons backing USDT, making it the largest non-sovereign holder of gold [3]. - The pace of Tether's gold accumulation was notable, with around 26 tons acquired in Q3 2023, representing about 2% of global demand [4]. Group 2: Future Projections and Strategies - Tether is expected to continue its gold accumulation as USDT grows, maintaining gold at about 7% of its reserves, with potential annual additions of nearly 60 tons based on projected profits [5]. - Tether has invested over $300 million into royalty and streaming companies in the gold sector, indicating a broader strategy in the metals market [6]. - The hiring of two top metals traders from HSBC suggests an acceleration in Tether's gold investment strategy [6].

Core Insights - Tether has become the 17th-largest holder of United States debt, surpassing countries like South Korea, the UAE, and Germany, and is aiming to overtake Brazil next [1][2] - The company currently holds $135 billion in US Treasury, marking significant growth and indicating that a crypto-based entity has outperformed an industrial state in government bonds [2][3] - Tether's achievements lend credibility to its stablecoin, USDT, which is backed by solid and liquid assets, and the company anticipates reaching nearly $15 billion in net profits by 2025 [3][4] Financial Performance - In 2024, Tether reported over $13 billion in net profit, more than double the $6.2 billion from 2023, showcasing its strong financial performance [5] - The company's low costs and Treasury-backed model are highlighted as key factors contributing to its profit margins [5] User Growth and Ecosystem Expansion - Tether has reached a milestone of 500 million verified users, indicating rapid growth in its ecosystem [6] - The gold-backed token, XAUt, has surpassed $1 billion in market value, driven by gold reaching an all-time high price [6]

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Market Trends - Tokenized gold trading volume reached $1 billion for the first time since the 2023 banking crisis [1] Investment Analysis - The report compares $XAUt and $PAXG, analyzing how blockchain is reshaping gold investment [1] Risk Assessment - The report breaks down the potential risks associated with tokenized gold investment [1]

Core Insights - Gold has reached new all-time highs on October 15, following record highs on October 13 and 14, with CFDs trading at $4,196 per ounce [1][4] - Significant purchases of Tether's tokenized gold, XAUt, were made by crypto whales, totaling over $30 million in the past week [2][3] Group 1: Gold Market Performance - Gold made a record high past the $4,000 psychological resistance on October 8, consolidating before retracing on October 11 [5] - The recent all-time highs for gold were $4,218 on October 15, $4,179 on October 14, and $4,117 on October 13 [4] - Gold's market capitalization stands at $29.27 trillion, making it the world's most valuable asset [6] Group 2: Tokenized Gold and Crypto Activity - XAUt is the second-largest gold-pegged stablecoin by market capitalization, valued at $1 billion, following PAX Gold at $1.30 billion [3] - Whale 0xdfcA purchased 2,879 XAUt for $12.1 million, while casualpig.eth bought 4,463 XAUt for $18.7 million [2] - The recent crash in the cryptocurrency market, with over $19 billion in liquidations, may have prompted investors to shift capital to gold through tokenized solutions [7]

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Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: The resurgence of the tariff war has led to increased risk aversion, potentially pushing up the gold price. After the interest rate cut in September, the pricing logic of gold has shifted from α-driven to β-driven, opening up upward space for long - term narratives [8][9]. - Silver: The price of silver is expected to remain strong. Although there may be resistance around the $50 level, it still has the opportunity to outperform gold in the medium term. Attention should be paid to the overseas short - squeeze situation [8][10]. - Copper: Trade risks have become more apparent, supply disruptions have intensified, and price fluctuations have widened. The market is currently bearish, but the tightening supply - demand fundamentals may provide opportunities for long - term bullish positions [89][95]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver Price Performance - This week, London gold rose 2.29%, and London silver rose 6.63%. The gold - silver ratio dropped from 82.2 to 79.1. The 10 - year TIPS fell to 1.75%, and the 10 - year nominal interest rate fell to 4.05%. The US dollar index was 98.82 [9]. - After the holiday, Shanghai gold opened higher, reaching a maximum of 921 yuan/gram, hitting a new record high [9]. Market Drivers - Overseas events during the holiday, such as the US government shutdown, French political turmoil, China's continuous increase in gold reserves, and Tether's plan to hoard gold - backed tokens, have all contributed to the rise in gold prices [9]. - Trump's resumption of the trade war over the weekend has increased market volatility, but the impact on gold has been relatively stable [9]. - For silver, the continuous inversion of the spot - futures price difference overseas, high lease rates, and tight inventory have supported the price [10]. Transaction - related Data - **Price Difference**: Overseas, the London spot - COMEX gold主力 spread fell to - 17.655 dollars/ounce, and the COMEX gold continuous - COMEX gold主力 spread was - 49.3 dollars/ounce. The London spot - COMEX silver主力 spread rose to 2.611 dollars/ounce, and the COMEX silver continuous - COMEX silver主力 spread was - 0.12 dollars/ounce. Domestically, the gold spot - futures spread was - 3.82 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range; the silver spot - futures spread was - 23 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range. The gold monthly spread was 8.14 yuan/gram, and the silver monthly spread was 55 yuan/gram, both at the upper end of the historical range [16][19][23][25][29][34]. - **Inventory and Position**: COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.17 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 53.2%. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 9.41 million ounces to 522 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio dropped to 35.1%. Gold futures inventory increased by 5094 kilograms, and silver futures inventory increased by 12.21 tons to 1192 tons. COMEX CFTC non - commercial net long positions in gold and silver both increased slightly. Gold SPDR ETF inventory increased by 1.42 tons, and silver SLV ETF inventory decreased by 289 tons [44][46][49][51][57][59]. Copper Price and Market Situation - The copper market is currently bearish, with a price range of 80,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton. The VIX index has risen rapidly, indicating increased market uncertainty [89][91]. - Copper concentrate spot TC is weak, and smelting losses have widened [93]. Market Drivers - The US tariff increase has put pressure on copper prices, but the tightening supply fundamentals may limit the decline. Major copper mines such as Grasberg have supply disruptions, and recycled copper supply is also tight. China's refined copper production is expected to decline in October [95]. - Total global copper inventory increased this week, with a significant increase in domestic inventory. However, as the supply - demand imbalance intensifies, there is still a possibility of inventory reduction in the future [95]. Transaction - related Data - **Volatility**: The volatility of Shanghai copper, international copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper has all increased. COMEX copper price volatility is around 22%, and Shanghai copper volatility has risen to around 25% [102]. - **Term Spread**: The term structure of Shanghai copper has weakened, and the LME copper spot discount has narrowed. COMEX copper has changed from a near - end C structure to a B structure [104][106]. - **Position**: The positions of Shanghai copper, international copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper have all increased, with Shanghai copper positions increasing by 32,200 lots to 578,300 lots [107]. - **Fund and Industry Position**: LME commercial short net positions have increased, while CFTC non - commercial long net positions have decreased slightly [113].