交银国际研究 财务模型更新 | 医药 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2026 年 3 月 25 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 56.15 | 港元 | 91.00 | +62.1% | | | 药明合联 (2268 HK) | | | | | | | 2025 年延续高增长，2026 年 M 端业务将迎关键拐点；维持买入 公司2025 年录得强劲的财务业绩和订单表现。2026 年，公司有望迎来M 端生 产项目的大爆发，预计 2026-28 年将合计有 30 个 BLA 递交，成为业绩新增长 极。我们维持目标价和买入评级，看好公司依靠技术和服务能力优势、在高 景气度 XDC CRDMO 赛道中不断提升市场份额的潜力，继续重点推荐。 资料来源： FactSet 3/25 7/25 11/25 3/26 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 股份资料 | 52周高位 (港元) | 85.10 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (港元) | 28.85 | | 市值 (百万港元) | 70 ...

Group 1: Impact of External Factors - The geopolitical factors, such as the Biosecurity Act, influence clients' strategies, leading them to seek multiple suppliers to manage supply chain risks [1] - Current tariff policies have limited impact on the company, as less than 5% of its revenue comes from direct exports to the U.S., and products fall within the tariff exemption range [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - The company's overall gross margin fluctuates mainly due to domestic market conditions and losses in new business, while overseas market and core business margins remain stable [3] - In Q1 2025, the new molecular business generated approximately CNY 14.19 million in revenue, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 353% [7] Group 3: Production Capacity and Orders - The company has expanded its production and R&D capabilities through acquisitions and the establishment of new centers, including factories in Hubei and Shanghai [4] - The order conversion cycle typically ranges from 6 to 18 months, with some orders taking 2 to 3 years to convert into revenue [6] Group 4: Future Investments - The capital expenditure for 2025 will focus on overseas expansion, new molecular technology development, and upgrading existing small molecule production capacity [8]