证 券 研 究 报 告 药明合联（02268.HK）深度研究报告 推荐（首次） 蓄势待发，全球领先的 XDC CRDMO 有望 进入商业化收获期 ❖ 蓄势待发，全球领先的 XDC CRDMO 有望进入商业化收获期。药明合联凭借 端到端一体化生物偶联药物 CRDMO 服务能力与行业领先的技术平台，持续 巩固并夯实全球生物偶联药物 CRDMO 领域的领先地位。 站在当前时点，公司在手项目数量稳步攀升，尤其是商业化验证前期关键环节 的 PPQ（工艺验证）项目持续增加，充分印证公司 IND 后管线正加速向商业 化阶段转化。随着公司逐步进入商业化项目收获期，收入体量与利润规模有望 实现中长期快速增长。 ❖ 从 ADC 到 XDC，生物偶联药物行业高速发展。ADC 药物作为生物偶联药物 中最主要的一类，以 2024 年销售额计已出现 6 款"重磅炸弹"药物；此外， 以双抗 ADC 和双载荷 ADC 为代表的新型 ADC 商业化在即。据 Frost & sullivan 统计及预测，全球 ADC 药物有望于 2030 年达到 662 亿美元。除了 ADC，载 体和有效载荷还可以替换为其他形式的药物，并且有望拓展肿瘤以外的多 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for WuXi XDC [1][3][4] Core Insights - The global ADC CRDMO market is expanding, with the company benefiting from a growing order pipeline and a dual-factory strategy that enhances capacity and customer retention. The company is also entering the XDC market to create a second growth curve [3][4][5] Summary by Sections Company Overview - WuXi XDC is a leading end-to-end ADC CRDMO provider, benefiting from high industry demand and a growing order book. The projected EPS for 2024-2026 is 0.89, 1.24, and 1.66 CNY respectively, with a target price of 43.4 CNY based on a 35X PE for 2025 [4][16] Market Dynamics - The global ADC drug market is expected to grow to 64.7 billion USD by 2030, with a CAGR of 30% from 2022 to 2030. The outsourcing market for ADC and broader bioconjugates is projected to reach 11 billion USD by 2030, with a CAGR of 28% [4][40] Financial Performance - The company has shown strong revenue growth, with revenues increasing from 311 million CNY in 2021 to an estimated 2.124 billion CNY in 2023, representing a CAGR of 180.7%. The net profit is expected to grow significantly, reaching 1.067 billion CNY in 2024 [8][31] Production Capacity and Strategy - The company is implementing a dual-factory strategy to enhance global production capacity, with new facilities in Singapore expected to be operational by the end of 2025. The company has 18 clinical stage III projects and is advancing its ADC pipeline [5][19][37] Growth Opportunities - The XDC market is emerging, with significant potential in non-oncological indications. The company is strategically positioned to capitalize on this growth by leveraging its existing technology and expanding its project and client base [5][21][22]