证 券 研 究 报 告 药明合联（02268.HK）深度研究报告 推荐（首次） 蓄势待发，全球领先的 XDC CRDMO 有望 进入商业化收获期 ❖ 蓄势待发，全球领先的 XDC CRDMO 有望进入商业化收获期。药明合联凭借 端到端一体化生物偶联药物 CRDMO 服务能力与行业领先的技术平台，持续 巩固并夯实全球生物偶联药物 CRDMO 领域的领先地位。 站在当前时点，公司在手项目数量稳步攀升，尤其是商业化验证前期关键环节 的 PPQ（工艺验证）项目持续增加，充分印证公司 IND 后管线正加速向商业 化阶段转化。随着公司逐步进入商业化项目收获期，收入体量与利润规模有望 实现中长期快速增长。 ❖ 从 ADC 到 XDC，生物偶联药物行业高速发展。ADC 药物作为生物偶联药物 中最主要的一类，以 2024 年销售额计已出现 6 款"重磅炸弹"药物；此外， 以双抗 ADC 和双载荷 ADC 为代表的新型 ADC 商业化在即。据 Frost & sullivan 统计及预测，全球 ADC 药物有望于 2030 年达到 662 亿美元。除了 ADC，载 体和有效载荷还可以替换为其他形式的药物，并且有望拓展肿瘤以外的多 ...

中新网广州2月14日电 (记者 蔡敏婕)"胃癌是一种典型的'三高'疾病——高发病率、高死亡率、高恶性程 度，治疗难度极大。近年来，胃癌发病呈现明显的年轻化趋势，我们的门诊中遇到的年轻患者也越来越 常见。"中山大学肿瘤防治中心肿瘤内科主任医师王风华近日介绍，这与不良生活习惯、饮食结构、幽 门螺杆菌感染和环境因素等因素密切相关，如长期熬夜、吸烟饮酒、偏好辛辣刺激食物等。 值得关注的是，由于早期症状不典型，约65%的胃癌患者在诊断时已处于晚期，晚期胃癌患者的生存率 较低，治疗难度较大。 "随着ADC靶向治疗等多个创新治疗方案的涌现，胃癌治疗已经进入精准靶向治疗时代。"王风华进一步 指出，ADC药物如同"生物导弹"，能精准识别肿瘤细胞并释放化疗药物，不仅杀伤HER2高表达的肿瘤 细胞，还可通过"旁观者效应"波及周围低表达或异质性细胞，从而更有效克服传统治疗后的耐药问题。 在治疗不断进步的同时，王风华也呼吁公众提升对胃癌的早筛和预防意识。她强调，胃癌并非"不可 防、不可治"。 王风华称，通过规范的胃镜筛查、以及对胃炎、胃溃疡、胃息肉等癌前病变的及时干预，许多胃癌是可 以在早期被发现甚至被"拦截"的，"我们期待，随着精准 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock performance of Qiming Medical-B (02500.HK) has been weak, with a recent price of HKD 2.81, down 2.43% from the previous day, and a cumulative decline of 6.02% over five days, indicating a price below the 20-day moving average [1] Group 1: Company Performance - As of February 13, Qiming Medical-B's stock price is HKD 2.81, reflecting a decline of 2.43% from the previous day and a total drop of 6.02% over the past five days [1] - The stock is currently trading below the 20-day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - The ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugate) commercialization process is accelerating, with expectations of rapid growth in the next 3-5 years, highlighting potential investment opportunities in innovative pharmaceutical companies and CXO firms [2] - The overall activity in the medical device sector remains robust, suggesting a favorable environment for companies in this space [2] Group 3: Recent Events - Recent developments in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry, particularly in the ADC drug sector, include the acceptance of the dual-antibody ADC listing application by Bai Li Tian Heng and updates to the Drug Administration Law that support segmented contract manufacturing, providing policy support for industry collaboration [3] - These dynamics may indirectly influence the long-term development environment for medical device companies [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [3]. Core Insights - The commercialization of Antibody-Drug Conjugates (ADC) is accelerating, with 20 ADC drugs approved globally, and 6 of them consistently generating over $1 billion in revenue for two consecutive years. The competition in the ADC market is entering a new phase, with approximately 60 ADC drugs currently in clinical phase 3 or awaiting market approval [6][30]. - Domestic innovative pharmaceutical companies are adopting various strategies for ADC capacity layout, with companies like Rongchang Biopharma transitioning from outsourcing to in-house production, while others like Kelong Biotechnology are building their own production bases [6][31]. - The recent revision of the "Regulations on the Implementation of the Drug Administration Law of the People's Republic of China" supports segmented contract manufacturing and commercial-scale drug sales, providing a foundation for ADC commercialization partnerships [6][32]. Market Performance - The pharmaceutical index rose by 0.14% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.47 percentage points, ranking 15th in industry performance [10]. - Since the beginning of 2026, the pharmaceutical index has increased by 3.28%, again outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.99 percentage points, ranking 23rd [10]. - The best-performing sub-sector this week was Traditional Chinese Medicine, which increased by 2.56%, while Chemical Pharmaceuticals and Biological Products saw declines of 0.62% and 1.82%, respectively [15][17]. Stock Performance - Among A-share pharmaceutical stocks, the top five performers this week were Guangshengtang (+29.83%), Haixiang Pharmaceutical (+18.64%), and Meidixi (+18.04%) [20]. - In the Hong Kong market, the top performers included Yiteng Jiahe (+14%) and Kedi-B (+9.96%), with 38 out of 116 pharmaceutical stocks rising, representing 32.76% [24][25]. Industry News and Policies - The inclusion of implantable brain-machine interfaces in the category of Class III medical devices marks a significant regulatory development, indicating a focus on innovative medical technologies [27]. - Novartis has submitted an application for the marketing of Ianalumab in China, a drug targeting various autoimmune diseases, which has shown promising results in clinical trials [27]. - Johnson & Johnson announced the approval of Daratumumab injection for a new combination therapy in China, providing a new treatment option for multiple myeloma patients [28].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese innovative pharmaceutical sector is expected to reach a historical high in 2025 with a total transaction amount exceeding $135.6 billion and an upfront payment of approximately $7 billion, leading to a valuation recovery in the sector [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The optimistic outlook for the pharmaceutical sector in 2026 is based on the dual logic of global pharmaceutical innovation cycles and the enhancement of China's industrial competitiveness [2][3] - The global pharmaceutical industry is currently experiencing a major innovation cycle, with advancements in gene editing, antibody screening, and targeted drug delivery technologies driving new drug development [2] Group 2: Competitive Position - China's biopharmaceutical industry has entered the global innovative drug competition, with the country ranking second in the global pharmaceutical market and accounting for about 30% of innovative drugs under research [3] - The systemic advantages in R&D efficiency, engineering talent, and clinical resources in China's biopharmaceutical sector are establishing long-term competitive strengths [3] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The overall valuation recovery in the pharmaceutical sector may be nearing its end, with future investment opportunities likely to arise from structural opportunities with alpha attributes [4] - Four key areas identified for potential alpha generation include next-generation tumor immunotherapy, advancements in antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs), the evolution of weight loss drugs, and the expansion of small nucleic acid drugs into common chronic diseases [4][5] Group 4: AI Integration - AI is enhancing the pharmaceutical sector by improving R&D efficiency, with successful applications in early drug discovery and potential for significant returns by shortening development cycles and reducing costs [7] - The integration of AI tools in drug development is expected to yield substantial benefits during patent protection periods, enhancing project return rates [7] Group 5: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy should focus on selecting assets with unique core competencies, particularly in areas like bispecific antibodies and ADCs, which are globally scarce and in high demand from multinational pharmaceutical companies [8] - The traditional notion that "domestic products are inferior to imports" is being challenged, as China is now competitive in several innovative drug segments [9]

评级：中性(维持) 曹泽运(证券分析师) 李畅(证券分析师) S0350525110001 S0350524010004 caozy@ghzq.com.cn lic05@ghzq.com.cn 证券研究报告 2026年01月30日 医药生物 生物医药深度报告：国产ADC药物即将迎来高光时刻 ——ADC子行业专题研究 最近一年走势 相关报告 《医药生物行业动态研究：中国独立医学实验室行业的先行者（中性）*医药生 物*曹泽运，林羽茜》——2026-01-27 《医药生物行业动态研究：AI药研或引产业革命，JPM大会再推行业新峰（中 性）*医药生物*曹泽运，林羽茜》——2026-01-20 相对沪深300表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 医药生物 | 2.0% | -2.7% | 21.1% | | 沪深300 | 2.1% | 1.3% | 24.5% | 请务必阅读报告附注中的风险提示和免责声明 2 -9% 0% 9% 19% 28% 37% 2025/02/05 2025/05/06 2025/08/04 2025/11/02 医药生物 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a "Buy" rating for several companies within the pharmaceutical sector, including 恒瑞医药 (Hengrui Medicine), 百济神州-U (BeiGene), and others [22]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical industry has seen a significant increase in BD (business development) activities, with Chinese pharmaceutical companies securing upfront payments exceeding $7.03 billion in 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of over 226.8% [15][20]. - The industry has a total market capitalization of approximately 544.85 billion yuan, with a TTM (trailing twelve months) P/E ratio of 38.5, significantly higher than the 14.1 P/E ratio of the CSI 300 index [3][6]. - The best-performing sub-sectors this week include offline pharmacies, hospitals, and medical R&D outsourcing, with year-to-date increases of 17.2%, 14.8%, and 10.7%, respectively [6][31]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The pharmaceutical index decreased by 0.39% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.23 percentage points. Year-to-date, the pharmaceutical sector has risen by 6.66%, surpassing the CSI 300 index by 5.10 percentage points [6][24]. - The current valuation level (P/E-TTM) for the pharmaceutical industry stands at 30.31 times, with a premium of 65.36% over the entire A-share market [6][26]. Business Development Trends - In 2025, the domestic dual-antibody BD projects achieved upfront payments of $3.5 billion, a staggering increase of 414.7%, accounting for 49.8% of all BD upfront payments for the year [16]. - The ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugates) sector has also seen substantial growth, with upfront payments reaching $1.63 billion, a 676.2% increase year-on-year [17]. - The GLP-1RA (Glucagon-Like Peptide-1 Receptor Agonists) segment reported upfront payments of $470 million, reflecting a 109.8% increase compared to 2024 [18]. Notable Collaborations - The report highlights significant collaborations, such as 舶望制药 (Bohua Pharmaceutical) partnering with Novartis to explore the potential of siRNA in hypertension treatment, securing an upfront payment of $160 million [19]. - The MNC (Multinational Corporation) procurement model remains dominant, with local companies securing $4.71 billion in upfront payments from MNCs, representing 67.0% of total BD upfront payments [20]. Recommended Companies - The report suggests a robust investment strategy focusing on companies like 恒瑞医药 (Hengrui Medicine), 百济神州-U (BeiGene), and others, which are expected to benefit from innovation and international expansion [20][21].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Macro Dialogue Industry**: The acceleration of Chinese enterprises going abroad is expected to continue until mid-2027, initially focusing on infrastructure sectors such as construction machinery, logistics equipment, and power equipment, transitioning to manufacturing equipment in the second half of 2026, followed by local production and operational phases [1][3] Core Insights and Arguments - **Currency and Debt Risk Mitigation**: Chinese enterprises can reduce exchange rate and debt risks through the internationalization of the RMB and the establishment of international financial infrastructure, such as the Hong Kong Gold Exchange. For instance, investments in Egypt can now be made directly in RMB [1][4][5] - **Innovative Drug Export Stages**: The export of innovative drugs is categorized into three stages: licensing out (collaborating with top global pharmaceutical companies), independent development (self-research and international clinical trials), and global sales. Significant increases in licensing transactions are expected by 2025, with investment opportunities in bispecific antibodies, ADC drugs, and weight-loss medications anticipated for 2026 [1][8][9][10] - **Basic Chemical Industry Advantages**: The basic chemical industry ranks fourth in direct exports, leveraging its industrial chain and scale advantages to gain market share and price advantages in overseas markets, benefiting from the "East rises, West declines" trend [1][11][12] Emerging Opportunities - **Automotive Industry Export Growth**: The export of passenger vehicles is projected to reach 6.5 million units in 2026, with over 50% being new energy vehicles. Companies like BYD are expected to perform well, with a target of 1.5 million units for 2026 [2][22][23] - **Household Appliance Industry Strategies**: The household appliance sector employs strategies such as OEM, acquisitions of local brands, and independent brand expansion. Companies like Midea and Haier have established a global presence, with significant contributions from vacuum cleaner and small appliance sectors [1][17][20] Systemic Risks and Financial Innovations - **Systemic Risks in Going Abroad**: Geopolitical risks, emerging market debt risks, and exchange rate inflation have historically suppressed overseas revenue valuations. However, these risks are expected to ease starting in 2026, allowing for more stable international operations [4][6][7] - **Debt Risk Reduction for Emerging Markets**: High interest rates in emerging markets limit their ability to mitigate debt risks. China can help by issuing sovereign debt backed by commodities like gold, thereby lowering financing costs and default risks for these countries [6] Future Role of Chinese Enterprises - **Global Economic Order Evolution**: As the old order disintegrates, China's strategic push for international financial infrastructure and RMB internationalization is expected to significantly reduce systemic risks for outbound enterprises, enhancing their role in the global economy, particularly in Asia, Africa, and Latin America [7] Investment Focus Areas - **Key Investment Areas**: Attention should be directed towards the tire industry, pesticide formulations, fertilizers, and products benefiting from downstream exports, such as long filaments and spandex, which show strong growth potential [16] Conclusion - The conference call highlighted the ongoing transformation and international expansion of Chinese enterprises across various sectors, emphasizing the importance of strategic adaptation to global market dynamics and the potential for significant investment opportunities in the coming years.

Investment Rating - The report indicates a significant acceleration in BD (Business Development) overseas for Chinese innovative drugs, suggesting a positive investment outlook for the industry [3]. Core Insights - The number of BD projects, upfront payments, and total amounts for Chinese pharmaceutical companies significantly increased in 2025, with 165 projects, over $7.03 billion in upfront payments (up 226.8% year-on-year), and a total amount of $136.68 billion (up 192.2% year-on-year) [2][7]. - The report highlights a focus on dual antibodies (双抗), antibody-drug conjugates (ADC), GLP-1 receptor agonists (GLP1RA), and small nucleic acids as key areas for BD overseas [2][3]. Summary by Sections BD Project Growth - In 2025, the quarterly breakdown of BD projects shows 41, 43, 30, and 51 projects in Q1, Q2, Q3, and Q4 respectively, with significant year-on-year increases [2][7]. - Upfront payments for each quarter were $0.9 billion, $2.0 billion, $1.86 billion, and $2.27 billion, reflecting substantial growth rates [2][7]. Outbound BD Models - The predominant model for BD remains license in/out, while the NewCo/Co-CoJV model is gaining attention, with limited successful cases of independent commercialization [2][12][13]. - In 2025, MNCs (Multinational Corporations) accounted for $4.71 billion in upfront payments, representing 67% of total BD upfront payments [12]. Key Drug Categories - Dual antibodies saw a remarkable increase, with $3.5 billion in upfront payments (up 414.7%) and a total amount of $21.85 billion (up 361.5%) in 2025 [2][18]. - ADCs emerged as a significant focus, with $1.63 billion in upfront payments (up 676.2%) and a total amount of $21.13 billion (up 390.6%) [2][26]. - GLP-1RA projects achieved $470 million in upfront payments, marking a 109.8% increase, with a total amount of $9.6 billion [2]. NewCo Model - The NewCo model has facilitated overseas BD, with a total of $350 million in upfront payments and $13.74 billion in potential total amounts from 2023 to 2025 [17]. - In 2025, NewCo projects secured $110 million in upfront payments and $4.76 billion in potential total amounts [17]. Clinical Development Stages - Approximately 62% of molecules were in early clinical stages (pre-clinical to before Phase II) at the time of BD, indicating a trend towards early-stage licensing [8][9].

Group 1 - China's GDP has surpassed 140 trillion yuan for the first time, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, indicating a stable economic performance amidst challenges [1][11] - The growth is driven by strategic emerging industries, with significant contributions from high-tech manufacturing and innovation [1][12] - The production of civilian drones increased by 37.3%, and AI development boosted storage chip production by 22.8%, highlighting the strong momentum of new productive forces [1][12] Group 2 - The cryptocurrency market faced a collective sell-off, with Bitcoin dropping below $92,000 and over 247,000 liquidations occurring within 24 hours [2][13] - Concerns about institutional fund instability, profit-taking, and regulatory uncertainties have pressured the market, revealing vulnerabilities in Bitcoin's inflation hedge narrative [2][13] Group 3 - China's foreign trade reached a total value of 45.47 trillion yuan, growing by 3.8%, with Anhui becoming the ninth province to exceed one trillion in foreign trade [2][14] - Anhui's strong growth of 17.3% is attributed to robust industrial support, particularly in automobile exports [2][14] Group 4 - The Chinese pig farming company Xinwufeng is expected to report a net loss of 700 million to 960 million yuan in 2025, despite selling 5.42 million pigs, which is an increase of over 25% from the previous year [3][15] - The loss is primarily due to a significant decline in pig prices and inventory write-downs [3][15] Group 5 - China XD Electric is positioned as a global leader in transformers, benefiting from increased electricity demand driven by AI development and aging power grids in Europe and the US [3][16] - The company has a unique capability in producing complete sets of power transmission and distribution equipment and has secured multiple major projects [3][16] Group 6 - WuXi AppTec plans to acquire Easton Biopharmaceuticals for up to 2.79 billion Hong Kong dollars, aiming to enhance its capabilities in the ADC drug sector [3][17] - The acquisition reflects WuXi's strong performance and expansion strategy, despite Easton's recent revenue and profit declines [3][17] Group 7 - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a new super cycle, with significant price increases expected for traditional products like DDR4, projected to rise by 50% in Q1 2026 [3][18] - The demand for advanced process products is squeezing mature process capacity, leading to tighter supply in traditional storage chips [3][18] Group 8 - Financial data from multiple provinces indicate a strong increase in household savings, with Zhejiang's per capita savings exceeding 170,000 yuan [6][20] - The trend reflects a "save more, borrow less" behavior among residents, while corporate credit has seen significant growth due to policy support [6][20] Group 9 - The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will significantly impact China's steel industry, with potential costs exceeding 800 yuan per ton for exports to Europe [6][22] - The mechanism requires companies to provide EU-recognized carbon emission data, or face higher default values, pushing Chinese steel companies towards green transformation [6][22]