Core Viewpoint - The report from Cinda Securities indicates that Tmall (06110) has experienced a high single-digit decline in total sales for its retail and wholesale business in Q3 of the fiscal year 2025/26, aligning with previous performance guidance trends [1] Group 1: Retail and Wholesale Performance - Retail business continues to outperform wholesale, with controllable discount and inventory situations reflecting strong retail management capabilities [2] - The decline in retail sales is less severe than that in wholesale, with offline sales showing improvement while online growth is weakening due to high base effects [2] - Overall discount rates in direct retail have deepened year-on-year, but the extent of discounting has narrowed compared to the first half of the fiscal year [2] - Total inventory at the end of the period has decreased year-on-year, maintaining good turnover efficiency, with a slight improvement in inventory age structure [2] - The network of stores is continuously optimized, with a 13.4% year-on-year and 1.3% quarter-on-quarter reduction in gross sales area of direct stores, and the pace of store closures has slowed compared to Q2 [2] Group 2: Collaboration with Core Brands - The collaboration with Nike is deepening, with both companies facing similar pressures in the Chinese market regarding foot traffic, sell-through rates, and inventory challenges [3] - Nike plans to enhance support through increased old goods recovery and inventory impairment processing, optimizing channel inventory structure, and adjusting orders for Spring/Summer 2026 to control new product shipments [3] - Both companies are focusing on regulating online market order and promoting unified price management, suggesting Tmall may rebound alongside its core clients [3] Group 3: New Business Development - The company is steadily advancing its new business layout, with successful establishment in specialized segments [4] - The running category has seen the launch of the running brand collective store Ektos, which has strengthened brand recognition and community connection through events like the Shanghai Marathon [4] - In the outdoor category, the exclusive agency of the high-end Norwegian outdoor brand Norr na has achieved breakthroughs, with the first store opened and plans for expansion in more cities [4] Group 4: Financial Guidance - The company has adopted a conservative financial outlook, noting increased volatility in terminal demand since December and significant operational pressure [5] - The previously set target of "year-on-year net profit flat" is expected to deviate within a controllable range [5] - The company maintains a "short-term cautious, long-term optimistic" attitude, with profit forecasts for FY2026-2028 estimated at HKD 1.285 billion, 1.397 billion, and 1.528 billion, corresponding to P/E ratios of 14.52X, 13.36X, and 12.21X respectively [5]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company's retail and wholesale business experienced a high single-digit decline in total sales year-on-year, aligning with previous performance guidance [1] - Retail performance continues to outperform wholesale, with manageable discount and inventory situations reflecting strong retail management capabilities [2] - The company is expected to collaborate closely with its core brand, Nike, to navigate current market challenges, including foot traffic pressure and inventory issues [3] - The company is actively expanding into new business areas, with a focus on niche segments such as running and outdoor categories, which are anticipated to contribute to future growth [3] - The financial guidance for the year is conservative, with a cautious short-term outlook but a long-term optimistic perspective [3] Financial Summary - For FY2025, total revenue is projected at 27,013 million HKD, with a year-on-year decline of 7%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1,286 million HKD, reflecting a 42% decrease year-on-year [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY2025 is estimated at 0.21 HKD, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16.25 [6] - The company forecasts a gradual recovery in net profit, with projections of 1,285 million HKD for FY2026, 1,397 million HKD for FY2027, and 1,528 million HKD for FY2028, corresponding to P/E ratios of 14.52, 13.36, and 12.21 respectively [4][6]