Gold prices tumbled sharply on Oct. 21, 2025, marking their largest daily slump in years as a record-breaking rally in precious metals finally hit a bump, according to Bloomberg data, as quoted on Yahoo Finance. The gold bullion exchange-traded fund SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) lost about 6.9% over the past two days (as of Oct. 22, 2025).The sharp correction came amid easing U.S.-China trade tensions, a stronger U.S. dollar and technical signals suggesting the metal had entered overbought territory, per the same a ...

Gold prices tumbled sharply on Oct. 21, 2025, marking their largest daily slump in years as a record-breaking rally in precious metals finally hit a bump. The spot gold declined more than 6% on Oct. 21, 2025 (at the time of writing), marking its biggest one-day slide in 12 years, according to Bloomberg data, as quoted on Yahoo Finance. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) lost about 6.4% on the day.What Led to the Sudden SelloffThe sharp correction came amid easing U.S.-China trade tensions, a stronger U.S. dollar, and t ...

We are all familiar with the so-called "October Effect.† Investopedia describes it this way: "The October effect refers to the belief that stocks tend to decline during the month of October. It is considered to be more of a psychological expectation than an actual phenomenon, as most statistics contradict the theory.† It's an interesting phenomenon, to use their word. We come into the month looking for an increased potential for market crashes, and an increase in volatility vs. previous months. We exp ...

The price of gold has been on a spectacular run lately, hitting back-to-back record highs over the past two weeks and surging past the $4,300 per ounce mark on Oct. 17. Earlier in the session, gold was on track for its biggest weekly gain since September 2008, when the global market faced a financial crisis due to the collapse of Lehman Brothers (as reported by Reuters). However, by the end of Friday, gold saw a sharp 2% pullback, marking its biggest weekly loss in over two months. While some traders view t ...

Core Viewpoint - The traditional 60/40 portfolio is losing relevance as investors shift towards a 60/20/20 allocation, with increased emphasis on alternative assets like gold and bitcoin [1][3]. Group 1: Portfolio Allocation Changes - Investors are moving away from the traditional 60/40 portfolio due to stocks and bonds moving in the same direction too often, and bonds no longer providing the expected protection against inflation and geopolitical risks [2]. - The new allocation model consists of 60% in stocks, 20% in fixed income, and 20% in alternative assets, reflecting a significant reduction in fixed income's role [1][3]. Group 2: Gold's Rising Importance - Gold has transitioned from a marginal hedge to a core holding in investment portfolios, recently reaching a record high above $4,300 and increasing over 60% since the beginning of the year [3]. - Factors driving gold's rise include central bank demand, de-dollarization, geopolitical tensions, and what is termed "the debasement trade" [3]. Group 3: Gold ETFs Performance - Gold ETFs have seen significant performance increases, with SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and iShares Gold Trust (IAU) up approximately 11% this month [4]. - September marked the largest monthly inflows into gold ETFs ever, with nearly $11 billion, and SPDR Gold Shares alone attracted over $4 billion [4]. - Total assets moved into gold funds this year have exceeded $38 billion, indicating strong investor interest [4].

Core Insights - Gold prices have reached a historic high of $4,007 per ounce, marking the first time it has crossed the $4,000 threshold, with a surge of over 4% this week indicating strong market interest in safe-haven assets [1][2][7] Economic Factors - The rise in gold prices is attributed to multiple global and domestic pressures, including the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which has increased market uncertainty, and expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts that make yield-bearing assets less attractive [2][10] - Currency fluctuations, particularly a weaker U.S. dollar, have made gold cheaper for foreign buyers, further driving demand [5][21] Geopolitical Influences - Global tensions, such as political unrest in France and Japan and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, have heightened demand for secure investments like gold [3][11] - Central banks, notably China's People's Bank of China (PBOC), are actively increasing their gold reserves, which supports rising prices [3][12] Central Bank Activities - The PBOC has been on a gold buying streak for 11 consecutive months, adding approximately 1.24 tonnes in September 2025, bringing its total reserves to about 2,303.5 tonnes [12][13] - India's Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has also been incrementally adding to its gold reserves, which stand at around 770 tonnes as of mid-2025, focusing on diversification and inflation-hedging strategies [14][24] Market Dynamics - Analysts caution that while gold may experience short-term volatility, long-term fundamentals remain strong, with economic instability and geopolitical risks likely to keep prices elevated through 2025 [4][9] - Increased trading volumes in both physical and paper gold markets indicate heightened activity, which could influence short-term price movements [7][17] Investment Considerations - For investors, this moment is critical, with Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) like SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and iShares Gold Trust (IAU) providing exposure to gold without the need for physical ownership [8][16] - Experts recommend a moderate allocation of around 5-15% of a portfolio to gold, balancing risk and reward while considering the potential for price corrections [21][24] Strategic Outlook - The outlook for gold remains cautiously bullish for the next 12-18 months, with opportunities for gains but also risks of price corrections, necessitating close monitoring of monetary policy, inflation trends, and geopolitical developments [15][24] - Prominent investors advocate for significant gold allocations in portfolios, with suggestions ranging from 15% to 25% due to ongoing economic uncertainties and inflationary pressures [19][22]

Core Insights - Gold prices have surged by 27.01% over the past six months and 53.85% year to date, reaching over $4,000, making it one of the best-performing assets of the year [1] - Strong investor inflows into gold ETFs, a weaker dollar, and sustained central bank buying are driving this increase [1][2] - Market expectations of further Fed rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions could extend gold's gains into 2026, suggesting a favorable environment for increased portfolio allocation to gold [2] ETF Demand and Projections - Investor demand for gold-backed ETFs surged in September, marking the largest inflows in over three years [6] - Goldman Sachs and UBS have raised their gold price forecasts, with Goldman Sachs projecting a price of $4,900 per ounce by December 2026, up from $4,300 [5][6] - The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 94.6% likelihood of an interest rate cut in October and a 99.3% likelihood in December, which is expected to further support gold prices [4] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to consider allocating up to 15% of their portfolios to gold, contrary to traditional advice of limiting alternative asset classes to single-digit percentages [3] - A long-term passive investment strategy is recommended to navigate short-term market fluctuations, with a "buy-the-dip" approach suggested for potential declines in gold prices [9] ETF Options - For physical gold exposure, investors can consider SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), iShares Gold Trust (IAU), SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (GLDM), abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF (SGOL), and iShares Gold Trust Micro (IAUM) [8] - GLD is noted for its liquidity with an average trading volume of 14.48 million shares and an asset base of $128.64 billion, making it the largest among gold ETFs [10] - For gold miners, options include VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM), VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), and Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ), with GDX being the most liquid and having an asset base of $22.96 billion [11][12]

$4,000 per ounce for the first time in history. Spot gold is trading near $4,014, marking a stunning 50% gain year-to-date. Investors are rushing to gold as fears over inflation and global instability rise. The precious metal is drawing attention worldwide. Traders see gold as a safe-haven amid economic uncertainty. Rising prices have triggered headlines across markets, signaling one of the strongest rallies in years. Inflation concerns continue to push investors toward stable assets. With central banks buy ...

Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Gold price has risen 10.63% over the past month and 42.90% year to date, driven by dollar weakness, central bank buying, and safe-haven demand [1] - The precious metal is trading near its record high, marking its sixth consecutive week of upward momentum, influenced by geopolitical tensions and high ETF inflows [2] - Strong fundamental indicators could extend gold's gains into late 2025 and 2026, suggesting increased portfolio allocation [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Impact - The Fed's first rate cut of 2025 in September supported the gold rally, as interest rate cuts weaken the U.S. dollar, increasing gold demand [3] - Recent data showing stronger-than-expected U.S. GDP growth has eased speculation of additional rate cuts, with an 87.7% likelihood of a cut in October and 96.6% in December [4] - Even without further rate cuts, the market has priced in two cuts for 2025, meaning deviations from expectations could boost gold prices [5] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Gold remains a crucial hedge amid macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, with various ETFs available for increased exposure [6] - Recommended physical gold ETFs include SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), iShares Gold Trust (IAU), and others, with GLD being the most liquid option [7] - A long-term passive investment strategy is advised, encouraging a "buy-the-dip" approach despite potential short-term declines [8] Group 4: Gold Miners ETFs - Gold miners ETFs provide access to the gold mining industry, magnifying gold's gains and losses, with options like VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) and Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM) [11] - GDX is the most liquid option with an asset base of $21.64 billion, while GDXJ has outperformed others, gaining 23.82% over the past month and 76.85% over the past year [12]

Core Insights - Gold's rally is expected to continue, supported by the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts and anticipated further cuts later in the year [1][2] - The price of gold has increased by 11.19% over the past month and 41.48% year-to-date, driven by dollar weakness, central bank buying, and safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions [1][2] - The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has decreased by 1.21% over the past month and 10.24% year-to-date, contributing to the upward pressure on gold prices [5] Economic Indicators - The market anticipates a 91.9% likelihood of an interest rate cut in October and a 98.8% likelihood in December, which is expected to further weaken the dollar and boost gold demand [3][4] - Rising inflation concerns and legal uncertainties regarding tariffs under the Trump administration are adding to macroeconomic volatility, suggesting that gold's rally may persist [2] Investment Strategies - Gold is viewed as a crucial hedge in uncertain macroeconomic conditions, prompting investors to consider increasing their exposure to the precious metal [6] - Recommended ETFs for physical gold include SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), iShares Gold Trust (IAU), and others, with GLD being the most liquid option with an asset base of $116.49 billion [7][9] - For gold miners, options include VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) and Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM), with GDX also being the most liquid and having an asset base of $19.93 billion [10][11]