今日盘后开始，彭博大宗商品指数(BCOM)将进行为期一周的年度再平衡调整（2026年1月9日至15日）。这场牵动全球大宗商品市 场神经的指数权重调整，将令超过140亿美元的贵金属卖盘涌入市场。 根据彭博公布的2026年权重配置，白银权重将从目前市场权重的9.6%大幅下调至3.94%，意味着追踪该指数的基金和ETF将被迫抛 售大量白银头寸。德意志银行和道明证券两大投行预计，未来两周内将有高达71亿至77亿美元的白银卖盘涌入市场，相当于 COMEX白银市场未平仓合约总量的13%。 【市场要闻速递】 全球最大白银etf--iShares Silver Trust持仓报告显示，1月7日白银etf持有量为16099.83吨，较上一交易日减少18.33吨。周三（1月7 日）现货白银尾盘收于78.17美元/盎司，下跌3.74%，盘中白银价格最高上探至82.73美元/盎司，最低触及76.32美元/盎司。 ...

资讯编辑：王芳琴 021-66896877 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授 权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方 便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。 截至1月7日，全球最大白银ETF——iShares Silver Trust持仓较前一日减少18.33吨，当前持仓量为 16099.83吨。 ...

资讯编辑：王芳琴 021-66896877 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授 权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方 便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。 截至2026年1月5日，全球最大的白银ETF——iShares Silver Trust持仓量为16353.60吨，较前一个交易日 减少90.54吨。 ...

Market Analysis by covering: Gold Spot US Dollar, Silver Spot US Dollar, S&P 500, iShares Silver Trust. Read 's Market Analysis on Investing.com ...

Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7% in December, marking its eighth consecutive winning month, the longest streak since 2018 [1] - The S&P 500 slipped about 0.06% for the month, while the Nasdaq Composite finished down about 1% [1] - The final five trading sessions of December were downbeat, with the Nasdaq losing 1.3%, the S&P 500 retreating 0.9%, and the Dow Jones falling 0.7% [2] Seasonal Trends - Historically, stocks tend to rise during the final five trading days of the year and the first two sessions of the new year, a pattern now under threat [3] S&P 500 Performance - The S&P 500 rallied 24% in 2023, 23% in 2024, and 16% in 2025, resulting in an almost 80% gain over three years, marking the strongest return over a three-year win streak since 2019-2021 [4] - The S&P 500 has not posted four consecutive annual gains since the five-year run from 2003 to 2007 [5] Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve has issued hawkish guidance for 2026, with a cooling U.S. labor market and persistent inflation [5] - The net impact of Trump tariffs remains unclear, and developed-market central banks are unlikely to cut rates at the beginning of 2026 [5] Sector Performance - Cannabis ETFs saw significant gains, with AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS) up 35.6% and Roundhill Cannabis ETF (WEED) up 35.5% due to potential easing of federal marijuana regulations [7][8] - Silver ETFs also performed well, with abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF (SIVR) up 25.9% and iShares Silver Trust (SLV) up 25.8%, driven by supply tightness and industrial demand [7][9] - Platinum ETFs, such as abrdn Physical Platinum Shares ETF (PPLT), rose 22.2% due to supply constraints and increased industrial usage [10] - Space ETFs, including Procure Space ETF (UFO), increased by 16.2%, bolstered by Rocket Lab's stock surge and positive developments in the space economy [11] - Copper Mining ETFs, like Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX), rose 14.3% as copper prices hit records due to high demand and fragile supply, particularly from AI data centers [12]

Core Viewpoint - The recent drop in silver prices presents a favorable entry point for investment, despite a significant increase in prices throughout 2025 [1][11]. Price Movement - Silver prices surged from approximately $30 to an all-time high of $80 in 2025, but experienced a sell-off with a decline of up to 10% on December 29 [1][2]. - The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) saw a rise of 162% during the year but fell by about 8.5% on the same day [2]. Market Dynamics - The sudden drop in silver prices is attributed to concerns of a speculative bubble and profit-taking by traders [3]. - The current price of SLV is $64.42, with a day's range of $63.53 to $66.88 and a 52-week range of $26.57 to $71.22 [3]. Demand Factors - Silver's industrial applications are significant, particularly in AI data centers, electric vehicles, solar cells, batteries, and medical equipment [4][5]. - The demand for silver is expected to rise due to the ongoing expansion of AI infrastructure and electric vehicle production [5][8]. Supply Factors - There is a supply crunch for silver, with the U.S. Department of the Interior designating it as a critical mineral due to its importance in AI and other technologies [7]. - The global electricity consumption for data centers is projected to increase significantly, indicating a growing demand for silver [8]. Economic Environment - The Federal Reserve's easing monetary policy is favorable for silver prices, as it boosts industrial activity and weakens the dollar [9]. - The accessibility of silver compared to gold makes it a more attractive investment for retail investors during precious metal rallies [10]. Investment Outlook - The expectation of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, along with the ongoing growth in AI and renewable energy sectors, positions silver as a strong investment opportunity for 2026 [11].

资讯编辑：王芳琴 021-66896877 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授 权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方 便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。 截至12月30日，全球最大的白银ETF——iShares Silver Trust的白银持仓量为16,455.42吨，较前一交易日 增加149.46吨。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing significant volatility, with recent price fluctuations highlighting both short-term risks and long-term bullish fundamentals [1][3][4]. Short-term Risks - The first risk is tax-driven selling, as investors holding substantial unrealized gains may sell before December 31 to benefit from long-term capital gains tax rates, leading to selling pressure in late December [6]. - The second risk involves a potential strengthening of the US dollar, driven by strong GDP growth data, which typically exerts pressure on dollar-denominated commodities [7]. - The third risk is the increase in margin requirements announced by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, which could reduce leverage and speculative demand, although current margin levels are significantly higher than during the 2011 silver price crash [8][9][10]. - The fourth risk is technical selling due to silver being in an "overbought" condition, although this assessment is contested by some analysts who attribute price increases to structural demand rather than mere technical factors [11]. - The fifth risk is the threat of copper substitution in solar manufacturing, which could lead to technical selling despite the long lead time required for such a transition [13][14]. Market Dynamics - The Bloomberg Commodity Index is set for a significant rebalancing in January 2026, which may force passive funds to sell approximately 9% of their silver futures positions, exacerbating market volatility [15][16]. Long-term Fundamentals - Despite short-term risks, the long-term outlook for silver remains strong, supported by structural supply-demand imbalances. Current spot prices in various markets indicate significant premiums over futures prices, suggesting physical market tightness [17][18]. - Investment demand is not overly crowded, with speculative net long positions in silver at 19% of open interest compared to 31% in gold, indicating potential for further price increases [19]. - The solar industry is projected to significantly increase its silver demand, with expectations of 290 million ounces in 2025 and 450 million ounces by 2030, fundamentally altering the silver market landscape [21]. - The rising power demand from data centers and artificial intelligence further reinforces the silver market's dynamics, as solar energy, which requires silver, becomes increasingly critical [21].

恒银期货：俄乌和平推进尽管进展缓慢，但大方向逐步趋于缓和，叠加前期涨幅过大，短期多头获利了结需求带动盘面回调是前期可以预料到 的。大方向上，美国进一步降息的押注、地缘紧张局势、各国央行的强劲需求以及上市交易基金(ETF)持有量的增加等一系列因素，都对贵金 属价格起到助推作用。短时盘面波动加大，国内假期临近，提醒投资者注意风险，轻仓或空仓过节为宜。 全球最大白银ETF--iShares Silver Trust持仓较上日减少84.6吨，当前持仓量为16305.96吨。 12月29日，上期所库存白银期货下降至79.6万手，较上周下降约10万手，反映已有资金选择了结离场。 机构观点 12月30日，沪银期货盘中低位震荡运行，截至发稿主力合约报18133.00元/千克，大幅走低3.99%。 【消息面汇总】 根据基金文件，为满足今年以来激增的需求，截至上周五SLV已累计增持近6700万盎司白银。不过，有分析师指出，尽管这一数字看似庞大， 但在今年全球白银总需求中仅占一小部分。 天风期货：综合而言，在目前沪银高位水平下，市场博弈将加剧，波动或进一步放大，建议交易者谨慎追高注意风险管理，择机低吸为主。后 市需重点关注美联储货 ...

周一白银价格大幅下挫，引发市场对这一贵金属年内惊艳涨势可能失速的担忧。 道琼斯市场数据显示，最活跃白银期货合约暴跌6736美元，跌幅8.7%，收于每盎司70.46美元。这一跌 幅创下该金属自1980年1月22日以来的最大单日跌幅，而就在上周五，白银刚创下历史收盘新高，并录 得史上最大单日涨幅。 白银的暴跌浪潮 "多头今日无疑受到了惊吓，"Kitco高级市场分析师吉姆·怀科夫（Jim Wyckoff）表示。他指出，鉴于白 银市场历史上波动性本就极高，资深金属交易员或许不会对此次暴跌过度恐慌，但如果抛售潮在周四元 旦假期前持续，那些在涨势后期"上车"的个人投资者和投机者可能会保持警惕。 "过去一两周进场的多头目前已处于亏损状态，正在止损离场，"怀科夫在电话采访中说。此外，他表 示，在成熟的牛市中，这类极端价格波动以及多头"燃料耗尽"的情况较为常见。 即便计入周一的暴跌，国际现货白银价格年内涨幅仍达近150%。 近期贵金属需求旺盛推动了白银的涨势，近几个月来，白银正追赶黄金的上涨步伐——黄金价格此前已 受益于全球各国央行的购金行为。 《黄金通讯》（Gold Newsletter）编辑布莱恩·伦丁（Brien Lun ...