Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Views - The liquor sector is experiencing a decline in sentiment due to fluctuations in the price of Feitian Moutai, with leading companies actively exploring new consumption scenarios and demographics [2][13] - The health products, soft drinks, and snacks sectors are viewed positively due to high growth potential, low base effects, and upcoming peak seasons [4][15] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - The food and beverage sector saw a decline of 0.88% from June 23 to June 27, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.95% [1][22] - Specific sector performances included health products (+3.65%), baked goods (+2.72%), and soft drinks (-0.58%) [1][22] Liquor Sector Insights - The white liquor sector declined by 1.66%, attributed to seasonal demand weakness and price fluctuations of high-end products like Feitian Moutai [2][13] - Current prices for 25-year Moutai (original/scattered) are 1870 RMB/1800 RMB, down by 80 RMB/100 RMB from the previous week [2][13] - The Shunwan white liquor index PE-TTM is at 18X, which is considered low compared to the historical average [2][13] Health Products and Snacks - The health products sector is experiencing a growth trend, with a 3.65% increase this week, driven by new consumption trends [20] - The snack sector is expected to benefit from low base effects and new product launches, with companies like Three Squirrels and Salted Fish being highlighted [17][21] Soft Drinks and Beer - The soft drink sector saw a slight decline of 0.6%, with notable performances from brands like Master Kong (+5.4%) and Nongfu Spring (+5.3%) [4][15] - The beer sector declined by 1.9%, but there is optimism for recovery with upcoming consumption policies [4][15] Investment Recommendations - Focus on strong alpha companies in the liquor sector such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai, which are expected to benefit from market consolidation [4][21] - In the consumer goods sector, companies that align with cost reduction and market share growth strategies are recommended, including Li Gao Foods and Nongfu Spring [4][21]

Company Overview - IFBH Limited, the parent company of if coconut water, officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on June 30, with its stock price soaring by 42.09% on the first day, reaching a market capitalization of over HKD 10.5 billion [1][3] - The company has a strong capital backing, with cornerstone investors including UBS and Southern Fund, collectively investing approximately HKD 310 million [4] Market Dynamics - The coconut water market in China is experiencing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.4%, projected to reach USD 2.66 billion by 2029, with various domestic and international brands intensifying their market presence [2][11] - IFBH has maintained a leading position in the Chinese coconut water market since 2020, with a market share of approximately 34% in 2024, making it the second-largest company globally in this sector [6] Business Model - IFBH operates a light asset business model, relying on third-party manufacturers for production, logistics providers for transportation, and distributors for sales, allowing the company to focus on product development and market penetration [6] Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of USD 87.44 million and USD 157.65 million for 2023 and 2024, respectively, indicating a year-on-year growth of 80.29% for 2024 [6] Competitive Landscape - The coconut water segment has become a competitive battleground, with brands like Joy Family and IMCOCO launching new products to capture market share, reflecting consumer demand for coconut water [7][8] - The rise of health-conscious consumption trends has positioned coconut water favorably in the beverage market, appealing to consumers seeking low-calorie, electrolyte-rich options [8] Supply Chain Challenges - The industry faces challenges related to high dependency on imported coconut materials, with Southeast Asia being the primary source, leading to potential price volatility [11] - Companies are urged to enhance supply chain resilience and quality control to navigate the competitive landscape effectively [11]

Core Viewpoint - IFBH, the parent company of "if" coconut water, has rapidly captured the Chinese market, achieving a revenue of over 1.1 billion RMB in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 80% [1]. Market Position and Strategy - As of now, "if" holds a 34% market share in China's coconut water market, significantly outperforming its closest competitor, Vita Coco, by more than seven times [1]. - The brand initially entered high-end supermarkets in first-tier cities to establish its image as an "imported health drink," but shifted to more accessible channels like convenience stores from 2019 onwards, offering smaller, more affordable packaging [2][4]. Competitive Landscape - The coconut water market in China has over 50 competing brands, including traditional beverage companies and new tea brands, leading to intensified price competition [8]. - Despite "if" achieving a peak market share of around 55% in Q1 2024, it has faced fluctuations, dropping to approximately 30% by Q4 2024, indicating increasing competitive pressure [8]. Supply Chain and Cost Structure - "if" benefits from a light asset operation model, outsourcing production and logistics, which allows the company to focus on brand building and marketing [4]. - The sourcing of all coconut raw materials from Thailand provides a cost advantage of about 18% compared to competitors, due to favorable growing conditions [4]. Marketing and Brand Development - The brand's marketing expenses surged from $1.8 million in 2022 to $7.35 million in 2023, with significant sales boosts from collaborations with influencers and celebrities [5]. - Collaborations with popular IPs like Pop Mart's Crybaby have enhanced the brand's appeal among younger consumers [5]. Financial and Operational Challenges - The company's reliance on coconut water for over 90% of its revenue poses risks related to changing consumer preferences and market saturation [9]. - The concentration of supply chain operations in Thailand raises concerns about vulnerability to agricultural disruptions, such as climate change or political instability [9]. Investment and Future Outlook - IFBH's recent investment from Aquaviva, which involved a $17.5 million stake for 11.11%, has made the company's IPO a critical objective to avoid financial strain and potential negative market perceptions [10].