前两天的一篇关于欧洲咖啡馆的文章，有位读者朋友留言说：碰巧与昨天的一个消息巧合了：星巴克开 始出售中国业务。我在一个股票投资社交平台上写了一个评论帖评述星巴克事件，文中特别推荐了你这 篇文章，给了链接。 非常感谢这位读者朋友的留言，您的想法为我的写作打开了一个新的视角。 多年前，我自己也曾接触过金融投资领域，因此也曾认真研究过不少行业，比如机器人、新能源汽车、 食品饮料等，咖啡行业自然也在关注之列。 中国连锁咖啡市场呈现出鲜明的双轨并行特征：国际连锁品牌深耕高端市场，本土势力则以差异化策略 实现快速突围。 根据最新市场数据，2025年上半年，27家主要连锁咖啡品牌门店存量达66，568家，净增门店11，841 家，较2024年底增长21.64%，行业正式迈入新一轮扩张周期。 国际品牌仍保持重要市场地位。 所有国际品牌中，星巴克以超过7，750家门店领跑，通过"第三空间"理念强化社交属性，其2025年第三 财季(4-6月)中国营业收入同比增长8%至7.9亿美元(约56.7亿人民币)。 然而最近几年，虽然我不再持续跟踪这些行业，但它们在国内的发展可谓日新月异，发生了翻天覆地的 变化——这些变革的深度和速度，放在当 ...

Core Viewpoint - The coffee market in China is experiencing a structural slowdown, yet it maintains a growth rate of 15%. Companies need to enhance penetration rates to make coffee consumption more mainstream and daily [6][21]. Group 1: Market Performance - Starbucks China reported Q3 revenue of $790 million, a year-on-year increase of 8%, driven by health drink trends, new product offerings, and expansion into lower-tier cities [6]. - Competitors like Luckin, Kudi, and Lucky Coffee are also rapidly expanding, with each brand planning to open over a thousand new stores in 2024, achieving growth rates exceeding 30% [6]. Group 2: New Product Development - Nova has differentiated itself by focusing on health and low-sugar products, entering the sugar-free, low-calorie coffee segment, which aligns with current consumer health trends [7][8]. - The brand's fruit coffee line has become a significant revenue contributor, with health-oriented products accounting for over 50% of sales [8]. Group 3: Targeting Young Consumers - Nova targets young consumers aged 18-25, who are open to trying new products and value health and wellness [8][10]. - The brand's marketing strategies resonate with young people's preferences, leveraging collaborations with popular IPs to enhance brand visibility and engagement [11][13][15]. Group 4: Channel Expansion - Nova adopts a "rural encircling urban" strategy, focusing on lower-tier cities where coffee penetration is low and potential is high, aligning with the trend of young people returning to their hometowns [19][20]. - The brand has implemented a partnership model with convenience stores, resulting in significant sales increases and enhanced customer traffic [20]. Group 5: Future Growth Strategies - The future growth of the coffee sector hinges on three key areas: new products, targeting young demographics, and channel expansion into lower-tier markets [21]. - Brands must balance market cultivation patience with expansion efficiency, ensuring that health concepts align with the actual needs and preferences of consumers in these markets [21][22].

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant sales achievement of Luckin Coffee during the "Autumn First Cup" event, with over 20 million cups sold in a single day, marking a new record for the company [4][7][15] - The event has transformed from a tea-centric promotion to a coffee-focused one, indicating a shift in consumer preferences and market dynamics [4][7] - Luckin Coffee's effective supply chain management and digital operations have allowed it to handle the surge in orders efficiently, enhancing its brand reputation [9][11][12][17] Sales Performance - On the day of the "Autumn First Cup," Luckin Coffee achieved a remarkable sales figure of over 20 million cups, with the highest-selling store in Shanghai recording 2,691 cups sold in a single day [4][15] - The top five cities in terms of sales revenue were Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing, Guangzhou, and Hangzhou [4] Market Dynamics - The "Autumn First Cup" event has evolved into a major marketing phenomenon, akin to "Double Eleven" in the beverage industry, driving consumer engagement and brand visibility [2][4] - The competition in the beverage market is intensifying, with brands vying for consumer attention and loyalty, particularly in the coffee segment [6][18] Brand Positioning - Luckin Coffee has successfully shifted consumer perception from "Luckin = coffee" to "coffee = Luckin," solidifying its position as a leading brand in the ready-to-drink coffee market [7][17] - According to Euromonitor International, Luckin holds a 35% market share in China's ready-to-drink coffee sector, significantly ahead of its closest competitor [7] Operational Efficiency - Luckin Coffee's self-delivery model has allowed it to bypass delivery platform congestion, ensuring timely product delivery to consumers [10] - The company's digital management system has optimized its supply chain, enabling effective demand forecasting and order fulfillment during peak times [11][12] Supply Chain Development - Recent strategic partnerships and investments in supply chain infrastructure, such as sourcing raw materials from specific regions, have enhanced Luckin's quality control and operational capabilities [12][17] - The establishment of a new roasting facility is expected to increase Luckin's annual roasting capacity to 55,000 tons, further strengthening its supply chain [12] Consumer Engagement - The success of the "Autumn First Cup" event reflects the cumulative effect of previous marketing efforts and operational improvements, showcasing Luckin's ability to adapt and thrive in a competitive landscape [13][18] - The focus on maintaining high efficiency and quality assurance is crucial for building consumer loyalty and brand trust in the beverage industry [18]

Core Insights - Luckin Coffee has opened two stores in New York, marking a significant step in its U.S. market entry, adopting a more cautious approach compared to its aggressive domestic expansion strategy [1][3] - The pricing strategy in the U.S. aligns closely with Starbucks, with drink prices ranging from $3.45 to $7.95, indicating a shift from the "high cost-performance" model familiar to domestic consumers [3][5] - The locations of the new stores are strategically chosen to attract Chinese students and international tourists, enhancing brand visibility and competition with local coffee giants [3][5] Pricing Strategy - The pricing of Luckin's beverages in the U.S. is comparable to Starbucks, with the most expensive item priced at $7.95 and the cheapest at $3.45, reflecting a new market positioning [3][5] - Compared to Dunkin', Luckin's prices exceed by 50% to 100%, which may complicate its market integration and slow down expansion efforts [6] Operational Strategy - The two stores serve as a "control experiment" for Luckin to test profitability and competitive strength against established brands like Starbucks [5] - The company aims to adapt its offerings based on local consumer preferences and feedback, enhancing its brand's local adaptability [5] Market Potential - The U.S. coffee market is projected to grow from $28 billion in 2024 to $39.2 billion by 2033, presenting a significant opportunity for Luckin if it can establish a foothold [5] - As of the end of Q1, Luckin had a total of 24,097 stores globally, with only 65 located outside China, primarily in Singapore, indicating room for international growth [5] Challenges - Initial entry into the U.S. market presents challenges such as high store and labor costs, as well as supply chain adaptation issues, which may lead to increased overall costs [5] - The company may consider promotional strategies similar to those used in China, such as distributing coupons and offering discounts, to accelerate market penetration [6]

Core Viewpoint - Luckin Coffee is making a bold entry into the U.S. market by opening two stores in New York City, signaling a competitive challenge to Starbucks, particularly in the coffee market where it has already gained significant market share in China [1][2]. Group 1: Market Position and Strategy - Luckin Coffee has successfully expanded its market share in China, surpassing Starbucks in total store count, quarterly revenue, and annual revenue by 2024 [2]. - The company has adopted a digital-first approach, utilizing mobile app-based ordering and promotions to attract consumers, which has proven effective in its home market [1][2]. - In the U.S., Luckin Coffee is replicating its successful Chinese model, offering a mix of popular coffee types and unique beverages from its Chinese menu [1]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Starbucks has seen a decline in its market share in China, dropping from over 40% in 2017 to 14% in 2024, despite the coffee market growing at an annual rate of 15% [2]. - The competitive environment in the U.S. is challenging, with Starbucks holding approximately 40% market share and over 17,000 locations, while Luckin's revenue is significantly lower, at only one-tenth of Starbucks' market value [4]. - Starbucks is attempting to adapt by introducing more non-coffee beverages and lowering prices, but faces challenges as consumer preferences shift towards convenience and value [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Luckin Coffee's future success in the U.S. will depend on its ability to adapt to a highly competitive and culturally diverse market, requiring ongoing evolution in branding, service, and operational strategies [4]. - The coffee industry is characterized by competition not just in products, but also in brand philosophy, consumer experience, and lifestyle alignment, indicating that understanding future consumer preferences will be crucial for market positioning [4].

Group 1 - Luckin Coffee achieved a record sales volume of over 20 million cups on August 7, making it the top-performing brand in the ready-to-drink tea market [2] - The highest-selling store on that day was located in Shanghai, with a single-day sales volume of 2,691 cups [2] - Major cities contributing to the sales included Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing, Guangzhou, and Hangzhou [2] Group 2 - The surge in orders during promotional events puts significant pressure on the supply chain, with some brands unable to fulfill orders promptly [3] - Luckin Coffee's supply chain and digital management systems are designed for rapid scalability, allowing it to handle the increased demand effectively [3] - The company's dynamic collaborative system covers the entire process from demand forecasting to user service, converting order pressure into manageable operational efficiency [3] Group 3 - Luckin Coffee has established a jasmine flower base in Guangxi for high-quality jasmine tea used in its products, enhancing its product quality [4] - The company plans to procure approximately 1 million tons of coconut raw materials over the next five years from Indonesia to ensure supply for its popular products [4] - The newly built Xiamen super factory will have an annual roasting capacity of 55,000 tons, contributing to a total capacity of 155,000 tons across its facilities, strengthening its supply chain control [4] Group 4 - In Q2 2025, Luckin Coffee reported total net revenue of 12.359 billion yuan (1.723 billion USD), a year-on-year increase of 47.1% [4] - Operating profit surged by 61.8% to 1.7 billion yuan, with an operating profit margin of 13.8% [4] - The number of new transaction customers exceeded 28.7 million in Q2, with a monthly average customer count growing by 32% to nearly 91.7 million, setting a new historical high [4]

Group 1 - Luckin Coffee achieved a record sales volume of over 20 million cups on August 7, making it the top-performing fresh tea beverage brand during this promotional period [2] - The highest-selling store on that day was located in Shanghai, with a total of 2,691 cups sold [2] - Major cities contributing to the sales included Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing, Guangzhou, and Hangzhou [2] Group 2 - The promotional battle among delivery platforms is a resource competition, with the "first cup of autumn milk tea" serving as a significant marketing opportunity [3] - Ele.me and Taobao coordinated with leading tea brands in Hangzhou to ensure adequate stock and delivery support to handle the surge in orders [3] - Meituan is collaborating with several tea brands, including Starbucks and Luckin Coffee, to launch new products, strengthening relationships with brand partners [3] Group 3 - Luckin Coffee's supply chain and digital management systems are designed for rapid scalability, allowing the company to effectively manage the surge in demand during promotional events [3] - The company's digital management system encompasses a dynamic collaborative system covering demand forecasting, supply chain response, store fulfillment, and customer service [3] - This system enables Luckin Coffee to convert order surges into manageable operational efficiency [3] Group 4 - Luckin Coffee has established a jasmine flower base in Guangxi to ensure high-quality jasmine tea for its light milk tea series [4] - The company has secured a five-year plan to procure approximately 1 million tons of coconut raw materials from Indonesia for its signature coconut latte [4] - The newly built Xiamen super factory, with an annual roasting capacity of 55,000 tons, will enhance Luckin's supply chain control, contributing to the largest coffee roasting network in China [4] Group 5 - In Q2 2025, Luckin Coffee reported total net revenue of 12.359 billion yuan (1.723 billion USD), a year-on-year increase of 47.1% [4] - Operating profit surged by 61.8% to 1.7 billion yuan, with an operating profit margin of 13.8% [4] - The number of new transaction customers exceeded 28.7 million, with a monthly average customer count reaching nearly 91.7 million, marking a historical high [4]

Core Viewpoint - Starbucks is experiencing a recovery in its performance in China, with a notable increase in store count and revenue, but it faces challenges in maintaining market share and adapting to a competitive landscape dominated by local brands like Luckin Coffee [3][10][31]. Financial Performance - For Q3 of fiscal year 2025, Starbucks reported net revenues of $790 million, an 8% increase from $733.8 million in the same quarter of the previous year [2]. - The number of stores in China reached 7,828, up by 522 stores compared to the same period last year, marking a 7% increase [2]. - Comparable store sales grew by 2%, with transaction volume increasing by 6%, although the average ticket price decreased by 4% [2][9]. Market Challenges - Starbucks' market share in China has significantly declined from 42% in 2017 to 14% in 2024, indicating a loss of competitive edge [10][31]. - Despite an increase in store count, revenue has not kept pace, with analysts noting that Starbucks stores contribute only 9% of total global revenue despite accounting for about 20% of total stores [3][10]. Strategic Considerations - There are ongoing discussions about potential buyers for Starbucks' China business, with various investment firms showing interest, although Starbucks has stated it is not considering a complete sale [3][13][16]. - The company is exploring strategic partnerships to enhance its operational efficiency in the local market, indicating a shift towards collaboration rather than solely relying on capital investment [16][29]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive environment has intensified, with local brands like Luckin Coffee and others rapidly expanding and innovating, leading to a price war that has affected Starbucks' pricing strategy [20][29]. - Starbucks has begun to lower prices on select products in response to competitive pressures, marking its first large-scale price reduction in over two decades [20][22]. Innovation and Product Development - Starbucks is focusing on product innovation and digital transformation to better align with consumer preferences, including faster product launch cycles and leveraging data analytics for consumer insights [27][29]. - The company has introduced new product lines and upgraded existing offerings to attract a broader customer base, although it still faces challenges in creating standout products compared to competitors [25][26].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 285.77 RMB per ADS, corresponding to 40.01 USD per ADS based on a FY2026 PE of 18X [4]. Core Views - The company has a strong market position with over 24,097 stores as of Q1 2025, focusing on a self-pickup model at an affordable price range of 10-15 RMB [2]. - The company is expected to see significant growth in non-GAAP net profit, projected at 43.42 billion RMB for FY2025, 56.05 billion RMB for FY2026, and 73.12 billion RMB for FY2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of +32.1%, +29.1%, and +30.5% respectively [4]. - The coffee market in China is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 21.6% from 2023 to 2027, indicating substantial potential for the company [49]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates a self-pickup model and has established itself as a leading player in the coffee market with strong capabilities across products, channels, brands, and supply chains [2]. Investment Logic - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing coffee consumption trend in China, with significant room for growth compared to more mature markets like the US and Japan [49]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 24.9 billion RMB in 2023 to 67.9 billion RMB by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.1% [8]. - The report highlights a healthy growth trajectory in both direct and franchise operations, with direct store numbers expected to increase significantly [70]. Strategic Store Opening - The company has entered a positive same-store sales growth cycle with a Q1 2025 same-store sales growth (SSSG) of +8.1% [15]. - The company has maintained a rapid store opening pace, with a net increase of 1,757 stores in Q1 2025 [32]. Competitive Positioning - The company leads the industry in terms of store count and market share, with a GMV market share of 21.8% as of 2023 [29]. - The company has a robust supply chain and digital capabilities, enhancing operational efficiency and product innovation [46]. Market Potential - The coffee market in China is still in a growth phase, with significant potential for increased per capita consumption [49]. - The company is exploring international markets, having entered regions like Singapore, Malaysia, and the US, with a focus on competitive pricing [56]. Financial Projections - The company expects to achieve substantial revenue growth driven by both direct and franchise operations, with total revenue projected to reach 46.95 billion RMB in FY2025 [70]. - The report anticipates a decrease in fulfillment costs as the number of stores increases, contributing to improved profitability [73].

Core Viewpoint - Luckin Coffee has successfully entered the U.S. market after dominating the Chinese market, opening two stores in New York and employing a digital-first strategy to attract customers [1][3][39] Group 1: Market Entry Strategy - Luckin Coffee's entry into the U.S. market is characterized by its digital ordering system, which has received mixed reactions from local consumers [3][26] - The company aims to replicate its successful strategies from China, leveraging its supply chain and digital marketing capabilities [5][15][20] Group 2: Consumer Experience - The pricing strategy in New York features a cup of coconut latte priced at $1.99, which is perceived as affordable compared to competitors [3][31] - Local consumers have expressed curiosity and positive feedback about the brand, noting its innovative drink offerings tailored to American tastes [9][11][34] Group 3: Competitive Positioning - Luckin Coffee's product offerings are designed to appeal to a younger demographic, positioning itself as a more affordable alternative to Starbucks while providing a diverse menu [18][34] - The company has established a modular supply chain that allows for cost savings, which is crucial in a competitive market [20][22] Group 4: Digital and Marketing Strategy - The company's "no cash" policy and reliance on digital platforms for ordering have sparked complaints but also highlight its tech-driven approach [26][28] - Luckin Coffee's marketing strategy includes social media promotions and collaborations with popular brands, enhancing its visibility and appeal [25][29] Group 5: Financial Performance and Future Outlook - Despite past controversies, Luckin Coffee has shown significant growth, surpassing Starbucks in revenue in China and expanding internationally [37][39] - The company's ability to adapt its successful strategies from China to the U.S. market will be critical for its long-term success [39]