以下文章来源于朝阳永续 ，作者AI 小二 朝阳永续 . 走在中国行业前沿的大数据服务商，秉持专业、前瞻、实务的理念，让数据更有价值！ 近日，"Meta与谷歌洽谈TPU合作，谷歌网络架构OCS引关注"的信息让A股相关概念股再度沸腾。A股市场从"果链 "、"T链 "炒到过"达链"，诞生了众多长 牛。而Gemini3、TPU等热点后，"歌链"究竟又有哪些值得挖掘的核心公司？不妨让AI小二挖一挖研报中卖方分析师的观点。 | 表格 | | | [ 复制 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 细分领域 | 核心投资逻辑 | 相关A股上市公司 | 资料来源 | | 光模块/光器 | 谷歌TPU集群及数据中心扩容的核心需求，速率向1.6T升 | 中际旭创、新易盛、天孚通信、源杰科技、 | 6 17 | | 件 | 级，直接受益于资本开支高景气。 | 仕佳光子、太辰光 | 18 | | OCS光交换 | 谷歌引领的技术革新，用于替代传统交换机，能显著提升性 | 腾景科技、德科立、光库科技、炬光科技、 | 6 17 | | | 能、降低功耗和资本开支。 | 塞微电子、光迅科技 | 23 | | 芯片设计与制 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a strong performance in Google-related industry chain stocks, driven by Google's advancements in AI and potential challenges to Nvidia's chip dominance [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Dekoli reached a 20% limit up, while Changxin Bochuang rose over 15%, Guangku Technology increased over 13%, and Juguang Technology gained over 12% [1] - Other notable performers include Lingyun Optical (+11%), Tengjing Technology (+8%), Saiwei Electronics and Taicheng Light (+7%), and Yintang Zhikong (+6%) [1] Group 2: Google’s Strategic Moves - Google is leveraging its latest breakthroughs in AI models to challenge Nvidia's market position [1] - Reports indicate that Meta is considering a multi-billion dollar acquisition of Google's TPU for its data center development [1] Group 3: Market Implications - This potential deal could allow Google to capture 10% of Nvidia's annual revenue, translating to billions in new income [1] - Google's cloud division leadership has expressed internal goals to achieve this revenue target [1] Group 4: Industry Analysis - According to Zhongtai Securities, Google has established a strong AI moat through a complete technology loop from chips (TPU) to applications (cloud computing/search/advertising) [1] - The expected increase in TPU shipments, improved OCS penetration, and the ramp-up of 1.6T optical modules will create significant growth opportunities for related hardware suppliers [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the telecommunications and AI computing chain, including ZTE Corporation, NewEase, Ruijie Networks, Zhongji Xuchuang, China Telecom, Haige Communication, China Mobile, and Shanghai Hantong [9][41]. Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing concerns regarding the sustainability of the AI "bubble" and the effectiveness of Scaling Law, while expressing optimism about the performance of Gemini 3 and Banana Pro, which have exceeded initial expectations [2][3]. - The AI computing chain is expected to continue its upward trend, with a focus on Google's core components such as optical modules and liquid cooling systems [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the generational leap in capabilities of Gemini 3, which has achieved significant benchmarks in reasoning and multimodal tasks, thereby shortening the time from investment to revenue [20][14]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The telecommunications index fell by 2.51% last week, while the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 3.90% and 5.13%, respectively [2][13]. - Concerns about the overseas AI "bubble" are prevalent, particularly regarding the effectiveness of Scaling Law and the sustainability of ROI [2][3]. Key Companies and Dynamics - The report recommends several companies within the AI computing chain, including: - ZTE Corporation (Buy, target price: 64.34) [41] - NewEase (Buy, target price: 476.71) [41] - Ruijie Networks (Buy, target price: 102.51) [41] - Zhongji Xuchuang (Buy, target price: 626.68) [41] - China Telecom (Buy, target price: 9.11) [41] - Haige Communication (Buy, target price: 13.70) [41] - China Mobile (Buy, target price: 126.20) [41] - Shanghai Hantong (Buy, target price: 28.28) [41] - China Unicom (Hold, target price: 7.56) [41] AI Computing Chain Insights - The report notes that the performance of Gemini 3 and Nano Banana Pro has significantly advanced the capabilities in reasoning and multimodal tasks, indicating a strong integration into the AI ecosystem [20][14]. - The demand for AI computing resources is expected to grow, driven by the increasing need for reasoning capabilities and the expansion of cloud token scales [20][14]. Financial Performance - ZTE Corporation reported a revenue of 100.52 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12%, but a net profit decline of 33% [42]. - NewEase's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 16.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 222%, with a net profit increase of 284% [44]. - Ruijie Networks reported a revenue of 10.68 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 28%, with a net profit increase of 65% [46].

中共河北省委关于制定河北省国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议发布。其中指出，培育壮大 数字经济。推进数字产业化和产业数字化，加快建设数据驱动、智能融合的数字河北。统筹算力基础设 施规划布局，推动建设全国一体化算力网络京津冀国家枢纽节点，加快打造环京地区智能算力集聚区。 中泰证券（600918）认为，AI算力成为通信行业主要增长引擎，持续看好算力产业链投资机会，头部 光模块厂商交付能力将成为成长关键，重视光芯片、OCS、空芯光纤、液冷、电源等细分方向。国产算 力重视芯片进展，以及国产模型追赶变化，将影响AIDC景气节奏。 中信证券认为，2025年以来中美科技股均取得亮眼成绩，算力板块涨幅领跑市场，模型和应用侧亦出现 局部爆发机会。展望2026年，国产算力方兴未艾，业绩弹性及投资确定性兼备，有望复刻美股2023年以 来的长牛行情。一方面，半导体设备、AI芯片等在海外管制下发展紧迫性增强，国产替代是大势所 趋；另一方面，国内芯片厂已初步探索出超节点等解决方案，以多卡数量优势补足单卡性能劣势，实现 算力突围。多卡集群的建设对零组件的数量和质量提出更高要求，并为产业链上下游带来更大的投资机 遇，液冷、存储、电源、 ...

Summary of Conference Call on North American Optical Modules and Domestic Computing Chain Updates Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the North American optical module industry and the domestic computing chain, highlighting investment opportunities in the optical communication industry from 2026 to 2027, particularly for companies like Alibaba and Tencent [3][4][5]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Investment Timing**: Current low-budget conditions present a significant opportunity for investment in niche areas within the optical communication sector, with substantial flexibility across various segments [3][4]. - **Market Sentiment**: North American optical module manufacturers reported earnings that exceeded expectations, indicating strong market recognition of the optical module industry's trends [3][6]. - **Performance of Key Companies**: - **Lumentum**: Reported a significant increase in shipments of 100G eML, CW silicon photonics chips, and 200G eML, leading to a revenue forecast exceeding $600 million for the next quarter [6][10]. - **Coherent**: Achieved a quarter-over-quarter growth of approximately 10%, with expectations of strong demand and supply improvements accelerating data center business growth [3][6]. - **Fabrinet**: Surpassed revenue expectations due to growth in the telecom market and DCI business, with Amazon's advanced computing boards driving development [6][7]. Emerging Trends - **AI and Communication Sector Outlook**: Both domestic and international AI development trends are viewed positively, with major companies like Alibaba, Tencent, Google, AWS, and Meta expected to maintain robust capital expenditures [4][8]. - **1.6T Optical Module Demand**: There is a notable increase in demand for 1.6T optical modules, with Lumentum and Coherent highlighting the need for 200G EML and CW lasers, driven by customer demand [4][10]. - **Supply Chain Dynamics**: The optical chip shortage has worsened, with Lumentum reporting a shortfall increasing from 20% to 25-30%, leading to anticipated price increases in 2026 and plans to boost production capacity by over 40% [10][11]. Market Challenges and Opportunities - **Challenges**: The optical chip market faces supply-demand imbalances, with significant shortages reported by major suppliers [11]. - **Opportunities**: Despite supply challenges, strong demand for optical chips presents growth opportunities for companies actively preparing to increase production, including Chinese manufacturers [11]. OCS and DCI Market Prospects - **OCS Market**: The OCS market is expected to see rapid growth, with orders primarily concentrated among overseas manufacturers like Coherent and Lumentum, projecting sales reaching $100 million by Q4 2026 [12][13]. - **DCI Demand Growth**: DCI demand has shown consistent quarter-over-quarter growth, with companies like DeKeLi expected to secure more orders as they expand production capacity [14]. Overall Market Sentiment - The overall sentiment remains optimistic for the optical module sector, with key trends such as the rise of 1.6T modules, optical chip shortages, and DCI demand being critical areas for investment [15]. The upcoming earnings reports, particularly from Nvidia, may further enhance market sentiment [15].

Macro Insights - October CPI year-on-year growth turned positive at 0.2%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, significantly higher than the same period last year [6][7] - Food CPI increased month-on-month by 0.3%, with a year-on-year decline of 2.9%, indicating a narrowing drop compared to September [6][7] - Core CPI continued to rise, maintaining a year-on-year growth of 1.2%, matching the highest growth rate in the past four years [6][7] - PPI showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, marking the first positive growth this year, while the year-on-year decline narrowed to 2.1% [7] Computer Industry - The configuration ratio for the computer industry in Q3 2025 decreased again, with a heavy stock configuration ratio of 2.6%, down 0.1 percentage points, indicating a low allocation of 2.2 percentage points [2][9] - The top ten holdings in public funds for Q3 2025 included companies like Kingsoft Office and Inspur Information, with Kingsoft Office having the highest market value at 12.6 billion yuan [10][11] - Public funds increased their holdings in AI computing and financial technology sectors, indicating a focus on these areas for future growth [11] Company Insights: Desay SV - Desay SV reported Q3 2025 revenue of 7.692 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.63%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 0.57% to 565 million yuan [12][13] - The company launched a low-speed autonomous vehicle brand, marking a new growth curve, with plans to expand its global presence through partnerships with NVIDIA [12][13] - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are expected to reach 32.7 billion, 39.8 billion, and 49.4 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits projected at 2.53 billion, 3.26 billion, and 4.08 billion yuan [12][13] Company Insights: Guobang Pharmaceutical - Guobang Pharmaceutical achieved revenue of 4.47 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, with net profit rising by 15.8% to 670 million yuan [15][16] - The company is expected to see revenue growth of 8.8%, 13.6%, and 12.2% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profit growth of 20.6%, 23.2%, and 18.5% [17][16] - The strategic investment from Zhejiang State Capital Operation Co., Ltd. aims to support innovation in pet medicine and new drug research [16] Company Insights: Dongfang Electric - Dongfang Electric reported a revenue of 54.744 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16.41%, with net profit rising by 13.02% to 2.966 billion yuan [18][19] - The company secured new orders worth 88.583 billion yuan, with a focus on clean energy equipment and renewable energy sectors [19][20] - Future revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are expected to reach 4.081 billion, 4.876 billion, and 5.409 billion yuan, respectively, driven by a strong order backlog [20] Company Insights: Guoxuan High-Tech - Guoxuan High-Tech achieved revenue of 29.508 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 17.21%, with net profit soaring by 514.35% to 2.533 billion yuan [22][23] - The company’s energy storage output is projected to reach 65 GWh, with significant growth in both power and energy storage segments [23][24] - Guoxuan High-Tech is set to supply batteries for Volkswagen's upcoming electric vehicles, indicating strong market recognition [23] Company Insights: Anta Sports - Anta Sports reported low single-digit growth for its main brand in Q3 2025, with overall revenue guidance for the year adjusted down to low single digits [26][27] - The company launched several new products and maintained a healthy inventory turnover ratio, despite facing challenges from weak consumer demand [26][27] - Other brands under Anta, such as FILA, showed strong growth, with expectations of maintaining over 40% growth for the year [27] Company Insights: Xtep International - Xtep International's main brand showed low single-digit growth in Q3 2025, while its subsidiary Saucony experienced over 20% growth [29][30] - The company is expanding its outlet strategy and plans to open 30-50 new stores in the coming year [29][30] - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are expected to reach 14.46 billion, 15.56 billion, and 16.78 billion yuan, respectively [30] Company Insights: Yongxin Co. - Yongxin Co. reported revenue of 2.706 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.56%, with net profit rising by 1.43% to 309 million yuan [32][33] - The company is expanding its production capacity with several new projects expected to come online in the next two years [32][33] - Future revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are expected to reach 3.788 billion, 4.135 billion, and 4.542 billion yuan, respectively [33] Company Insights: Kesheng Co. - Kesheng Co. reported a revenue of 1.116 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 39.93%, with net profit dropping by 84.84% [41][42] - The company is focusing on product diversification to mitigate the impact of declining demand in its core sunscreen business [42][43] - Future earnings per share (EPS) projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are expected to be 0.25, 0.38, and 0.50 yuan, respectively [43]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the computer industry, indicating an expected increase in the sector's performance exceeding the market benchmark by more than 10% over the next 6-12 months [8] Core Insights - Google has established a comprehensive AI ecosystem consisting of "model (Gemini) + accelerator (TPU) + data center network (OCS) + applications (search + advertising + Android devices)," significantly enhancing efficiency in large-scale inference and cluster interconnectivity [1] - The Gemini series of large models, particularly Gemini 2.5 Pro, demonstrates exceptional capabilities in multi-modal processing, long-context understanding, and complex task execution, leading to a substantial increase in user engagement [2] - The TPU, a custom AI accelerator chip, has reached its seventh generation, achieving significant improvements in performance and efficiency, and has garnered external orders, validating its competitive advantages [3] - OCS serves as the optical foundation of Google's AI ecosystem, enhancing data center performance and reducing operational costs, thereby accelerating the maturity and expansion of the OCS ecosystem [4] Summary by Sections AI Model Development - The Gemini series continues to evolve, with Gemini 2.5 Pro showcasing advanced multi-modal capabilities and a user base exceeding 650 million monthly active users as of Q3 2025 [2] - The monthly token call volume for the model reached 1.3 trillion, reflecting over 20 times growth within a year [2] - The upcoming Gemini 3 model is expected to further enhance multi-modal data processing capabilities [2] TPU and OCS Infrastructure - TPU is designed specifically for machine learning and deep learning workloads, achieving a cluster scale of up to 9,216 chips with significant performance improvements [3] - OCS replaces traditional electrical switches in data centers, leading to measurable system-level benefits such as increased throughput and reduced power consumption [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance and investment strategies of several mutual funds, highlighting their focus on sectors such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and carbon neutrality, which are expected to yield significant returns in the current market environment [3][10][15]. Group 1: Fund Performance and Holdings - The "Zhonghang Opportunity Leading" fund reported a remarkable performance of 127.17% in the first three quarters, ranking 4th among actively managed equity funds, with a total scale of 132.31 billion yuan, nearly a 12-fold increase from the previous quarter [5][10]. - The "Yongying Medical Innovation Selection" fund achieved a performance of 114.01%, ranking in the top 20 among actively managed equity funds, with a scale of 78.29 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 157.28% from the previous quarter [10][13]. - The "Penghua Carbon Neutral Theme" fund recorded a performance of 111.79% in the first three quarters, with a stock position of 89.95% [15][17]. Group 2: Investment Focus Areas - The "Zhonghang Opportunity Leading" fund primarily invests in the AI computing power industry chain, with a stock position of 88.56%. Key holdings include Yingweike, Xinyi Sheng, and Zhongji Xuchuang, all of which have seen significant price increases this year [5][8]. - The "Yongying Medical Innovation Selection" fund focuses on innovative pharmaceuticals, with major holdings in Kangfang Bio and Xinda Bio, both exceeding 700 million yuan in market value [10][12]. - The "Penghua Carbon Neutral Theme" fund emphasizes manufacturing, new energy, and new technologies, with significant profits reported in the third quarter [15][17]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Trends - The article suggests that the growth potential for AI computing power remains high, with a focus on long-term investment opportunities in emerging technologies [8][17]. - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is expected to become a key investment theme, similar to the explosive growth seen in the CXO sector from 2018 to 2019 [13]. - The AI technology cycle is anticipated to last at least 5 to 10 years, with significant investment opportunities in robotics and new industrial technologies [17][23].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company reported a decline in net profit in H1 2025 primarily due to a slowdown in demand in the traditional telecommunications transmission market, which compressed profit margins in its telecom transmission business [4][12] - The DCI product line is entering a critical capacity enhancement phase, with significant growth in customer orders and market share [4][13] - The company is making progress in the R&D of OCS and hollow core fiber amplifiers, enhancing its core competitiveness in the computing power infrastructure sector [4][14] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 433.55 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.93%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 48.17% to 28.09 million yuan [12] - The net profit after excluding non-recurring gains and losses was 19.11 million yuan, also down 48.23% year-on-year [12] Product Development - The DCI product line has seen significant advancements, with small batch trials of the 400G coherent module and mass deliveries of 400G/600G DCI boards. The company plans to deliver small batches of 800G boards within the year and has initiated research on 1.6T boards [4][13] - The company has received overseas sample orders for its silicon-based OCS and is accelerating the development of the second-generation high-dimensional OCS, targeting prototype completion by H1 2026 [4][14] Future Projections - The company expects revenues of 1.313 billion yuan in 2025, 1.960 billion yuan in 2026, and 2.758 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 56.03%, 49.35%, and 40.70% respectively [15] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 169 million yuan in 2025, 269 million yuan in 2026, and 423 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 68.06%, 59.57%, and 56.91% respectively [15]

Core Viewpoint - Dekoli (688205.SH) expresses a cautious attitude towards its OCS business due to high technical barriers and significant R&D investment, indicating that the industry is still in the early stages of exploration and validation, with considerable uncertainty regarding commercialization and large-scale application [1] Group 1 - The overall industry is still in the early exploration and validation phase, which affects the maturity and profitability outlook [1] - The company has not yet secured bulk orders from overseas major manufacturers, highlighting the challenges in gaining market traction [1] - Specific details regarding customers and project progress are not disclosed due to commercial confidentiality agreements [1]