行业研究 市场研究部 2026 年 2 月 9 日 通信行业周报（2 月 2 日- 2 月 8 日） 通信行业市场回顾 2026 年 2 月 2 日至 2 月 6 日，通信（中信）板块下跌了 6.73%，而沪 深 300 指数下跌了 1.33%，通信板块跑输沪深 300 指数 5.39 个百分 点。期间通信业区间涨幅位列中信一级行业第 29 位，在 30 个中信一 级行业中表现靠后。2026 年全年，通信行业累计下跌 1.63%，在中信 一级行业中排第 27 位，表现较为靠后。截至 2 月 6 日，中信通信行业 PE TTM 为 26.41 倍，处于 36.08%的分位数。 中信通信行业包括上市公司共 119 家，期间 30 家公司收涨，88 家公 司收跌，总体上跌多涨少。涨幅前 3 名分别为长飞光纤、天孚通信及 通鼎互联，跌幅前 3 名则分别为精伦电子、震有科技及奥维通信。 周度关注：消费电子数据 根据信通院数据显示， 2025 年 1-12 月，国内市场手机出货量 3.07 亿 部，同比下降 2.4%，其中，5G 手机 2.66 亿部，同比下降 1.9%，占 同期手机出货量的 86.9%。2025 年 1 ...

【国金通信】炬光科技跟踪：目标市值怎么看 分部估值，可插拔60-70e+OCS100-120e+CPO150e+其他业务100e = 450e 27年行业TAM约60-70e，按15%份额计，则对应2-3e净利润，给20-25x PE，60-70e 对标其他OCS标的，公司仍处于相对低估水平。 分部估值，可插拔60-70e+OCS100-120e+CPO150e+其他业务100e = 450e 27年行业TAM约60-70e，按15%份额计，则对应2-3e净利润，给20-25x PE，60-70e 对标其他OCS标的，公司仍处于相对低估水平。 OCS其他标的普遍按终局估值，按2030年30w台OCS终局计算，假设公司份额30%，单机价值量1.2-1.3w，净利率 30%，则对应3-4e利润，25-30xPE则对应约100-120e 竞争格局或好于预期；同时市场尚未price-in scale-up的想象空间（市场当前用scale-outcpo的供应商格局&产品推导 scale-up域，公司在out域卡位佳，在up域理应同样有1-2x想象空间）。 若仅考虑out域，假设27年10w台预期，5w单机价值量，20% ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a strong buy rating for Coherent, anticipating a performance that will exceed the benchmark index by more than 20% in the next six months [44]. Core Insights - Coherent achieved record revenue of $1.69 billion in FY2026Q2, with a quarter-over-quarter growth of 7% and a year-over-year growth of 17%. The Non-GAAP gross margin improved to 39%, with a Non-GAAP diluted EPS of $1.29, reflecting an 11% quarter-over-quarter increase and a 35% year-over-year increase [3][7]. - The data center and communication segment accounts for over 70% of total revenue, with a year-over-year growth of 34% in Q2. The data center business saw a 36% increase, driven by strong demand for 800G and 1.6T transceivers [8][9]. - The company expects FY2026Q3 revenue to be between $1.7 billion and $1.84 billion, with a Non-GAAP gross margin forecasted between 38.5% and 40.5% [10]. Summary by Sections FY2026Q2 Performance Overview - Coherent reported a strong performance in FY2026Q2 with total revenue reaching a record $1.69 billion, a 7% increase from the previous quarter and a 17% increase year-over-year. Excluding revenue from the recently divested aerospace and defense business, revenue growth was 9% quarter-over-quarter and 22% year-over-year. The Non-GAAP gross margin was 39%, with a Non-GAAP operating margin of 19.9% and a diluted EPS of $1.29 [3][7]. Business Segment Performance 1. **Data Center and Communication Segment** - This segment is the core growth driver, contributing over 70% of total revenue. In Q2, revenue grew 34% year-over-year, with the data center business growing 36% due to strong demand for 800G and 1.6T transceivers. The communication business also performed well, with a 44% year-over-year increase [8][9]. 2. **Industrial Segment** - After excluding the recently divested aerospace and defense business, the industrial segment saw a 4% quarter-over-quarter growth and remained flat year-over-year. The semiconductor industry orders significantly increased in Q2, indicating potential for growth in the upcoming quarters [9]. FY2026Q3 Guidance - Coherent anticipates FY2026Q3 revenue between $1.7 billion and $1.84 billion, including $5 million from the Munich product division before its sale. The Non-GAAP gross margin is expected to be between 38.5% and 40.5%, with total operating expenses projected between $320 million and $340 million [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market index [3][6]. Core Views - The company, a leader in optical modules, is expected to achieve significant revenue growth driven by strong demand for computing infrastructure and an increasing proportion of high-speed optical modules in its product mix [6][7]. - The company's net profit for 2025 is projected to be between 98.0 to 118.0 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 89.50% to 128.17% [1]. - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on new optical solutions, including OCS, CPO, and 3.2T optical modules, to capture market opportunities in integrated optics [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of 109.62 billion yuan for 2025, with a growth rate of 111.97% compared to the previous year [7]. - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 386.57 billion yuan, 687.61 billion yuan, and 925.25 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 62.00% and 77.88% [6][7]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a global leader in optical modules, benefiting from robust demand from end customers for computing infrastructure [6]. - The report notes that the company's product shipments are growing rapidly, with high-speed optical modules becoming a larger share of total sales [6]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates that the 1.6T optical module will see rapid growth starting in 2026, with significant orders already in place [5][6]. - The report suggests that the company's financial management capabilities will improve as it progresses with its Hong Kong listing and global business expansion, potentially mitigating short-term financial impacts [5][6].

Q2 FY26 Conference Call February 3, 2026 ▪ Systems Forward Looking Statements and Financial Presentation This presentation and our earnings call contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. These include statements regarding: our revenue, profitability, revenue growth and momentum, growth catalysts and drivers, the sustainability of our growth, the potential for our products, our ability to scale co ...

Group 1 - Core view: The market is in a state of fluctuation, with a focus on mid-cap blue chips in the chemical and agricultural sectors [3][12] - Market assessment: The pre-holiday low has likely been established, and the main tone of sideways fluctuation remains unchanged [4][13] - Global financial market trends continue to show volatility, with an upward trend in risk assessment, while China's risk evaluation remains stable [3][13] Group 2 - Industry comparison: The focus remains on mid-cap blue chips, particularly in the agricultural and chemical sectors, which are expected to provide investment opportunities [4][14] - The agricultural sector is anticipated to become a key player in the next market phase, with price increases expected due to supply-demand dynamics [5][14] - The upcoming agricultural policy document is expected to be released in February, which may further influence market trends [5][14] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of AI technologies and applications, with ongoing developments in areas such as silicon photonics and cloud computing [5][14] - The aerospace satellite sector is currently experiencing a decline in market attention, but there are signs of potential rebounds due to overseas advancements [6][14] - The robotics sector is expected to regain market focus with the upcoming release of Tesla's V3 version, which may create new investment opportunities [6][14]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the successful completion of nearly 100 million RMB in Series D financing for "San Shiyuan Technology," a leading company in the optical communication device sector, particularly in Optical Circuit Switch (OCS) technology, which is rapidly advancing in commercialization [5][7]. Financing Information - Financing Round: Series D - Financing Amount: Nearly 100 million RMB - Investors: Led by CITIC Jinshi and Guanghe Venture Capital, with participation from Lishi Venture Capital, existing shareholders including Zhongnan Venture Capital, Jing Shui Hu Venture Capital, Xiyang Capital, and Zhuhai Technology Group [7]. Company Overview - Established: 2015 - Location: Zhuhai, Guangdong - Key Products: OCS, circulators, high-power & polarization-maintaining laser devices, multi-core fiber devices, and integrated devices for optical amplifiers. These products are widely used in data centers, LiDAR, industrial lasers, measurement, backbone network relays, coherent transmission, 5G base stations, optical detection, and medical optics [10]. Market Potential - The OCS market is projected to reach at least $2.5 billion by 2029, driven by the expansion of AI and data center deployments. The circulator market is expected to grow over 15 times in the next five years, reaching several billion RMB [12]. - Cignal AI's report indicates that OCS has evolved from a single Google project to a multi-vendor market with actual deployments and procurement orders, indicating a robust growth trajectory [12]. Company Performance - "San Shiyuan Technology" has achieved a tenfold increase in revenue over the past five years, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 60%. The company has been recognized as a unicorn seed enterprise and a national-level "specialized and innovative" small giant [14]. Team Background - The founder, Chen Xiangyang, has 20 years of experience in the optical communication industry and has previously led significant sales efforts at Zhuhai Guanglian. The core team also possesses extensive experience from leading international companies [16]. Future Development Goals - The company aims to maintain an annual growth rate of 60%-70% and plans to establish subsidiaries in Shanghai and Singapore, as well as a production base in Southeast Asia, to attract high-end and international talent [20].

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 上午10点33分，市场见当日低点后开启震荡修复，光模块板块快速拉升，中际旭创、新易盛、天孚通信 大涨，创业板成长ETF（159967）上涨超3%。 国盛证券认为：光模块赛道新技术迭代频繁，过去一两个季度市场重点关注OCS、相干技术，近期PIC 光芯片等新产品也引发广泛讨论，这些新技术方向均是未来板块估值提升的重要驱动。当前板块处于休 整周期，随着2025年四季度及2026年一季度业绩预告发布，市场对公司业绩的信心将进一步提升。春节 后召开的GTC和OSC会议，将围绕1.6T、3.2T等新产品展开更多交流，板块有望逐步迎来行情修复。 从公募基金公布的2025年4季报数据来看，基金持仓通信行业环比继续上升，4季度在强化光模块配置。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that the demand for AI computing power will continue to grow and diversify in 2026, extending from data centers to network edges and even internal terminals [8][13][27] - The report highlights the significant capital expenditure (Capex) growth driven by business revenue, with major cloud service providers like Google, Microsoft, and Amazon showing consistent revenue growth exceeding 20% year-on-year [27][31][35] - The report identifies the increasing importance of silicon photonics technology, particularly the 1.6T optical module, which is expected to maintain accelerated growth and enhance the global market share of domestic optical chips and devices [7][54][70] Group 2 - The report discusses the emergence of new technologies such as Scale-UP supernodes and their impact on optical link demand, indicating that these technologies will drive additional link requirements in 2026 [7][9][66] - It notes that the AI infrastructure is experiencing a high level of prosperity, with significant investments in data centers and AI capabilities expected to continue, particularly in the U.S. [47][49][53] - The report anticipates that the integration of silicon photonics will significantly increase its market penetration, projecting that by 2026, over half of optical module sales will come from silicon photonics solutions [70][75]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the development of a multi-dimensional and controllable computing power infrastructure in Zhejiang Province, emphasizing the construction of regional and city-level computing centers and the promotion of domestic computing chip usage [1] - The plan includes accelerating breakthroughs in large-scale intelligent computing clusters and establishing edge computing nodes as needed, aiming to enhance the supply system of new computing power [1] - The initiative encourages cloud service providers to adopt a "cloud-adjusted computing" model and aims to create an integrated computing power network across the province, facilitating cross-regional scheduling and complementary collaboration of computing resources [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities notes that since 2025, both Chinese and American tech stocks have performed well, with the computing power sector leading the market, and anticipates that domestic computing power will replicate the long bull market seen in US stocks since 2023 [2] - The urgency for development in semiconductor equipment and AI chips has increased due to overseas restrictions, making domestic substitution a prevailing trend, while domestic chip manufacturers have begun exploring solutions like super nodes to enhance computing power [2] - The construction of multi-card clusters raises demands for the quantity and quality of components, presenting greater investment opportunities across the supply chain, particularly in sectors such as liquid cooling, storage, power supply, optical modules, PCB, and quantum computing [2]