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中信证券:OCS技术路线未来增长确定性较强 关注三大投资主线
智通财经网· 2025-08-27 01:25
智通财经APP获悉,中信证券发布研报称,AI数据中心使用OCS仍处在早期阶段,谷歌已实现产品落 地,大部分厂商仍在积极研发。该行认为OCS技术路线可行性高,优势明显,未来增长确定性较强,建 议对整机、核心器件、光学零部件等全产业链保持关注。按照产业链环节,该行梳理三条投资主线: 一、整机环节,建议关注具备核心网光通信设备业务的厂商以及OCS代工厂商。二、核心器件环节,建 议关注光学MEMS供应商和代工厂。三、光学零部件环节,建议关注我国光学部件供应商。 商业上一条重要规律是需求的变化决定产业的变化。网页时代的数据中心以南北向随机流量为主,云计 算时代以有序而随机的东西向流量为主,HPC和传统AI则是大算力、低延迟、局部互联,每一次需求的 变化都带来数据中心网络架构的巨变,大模型时代也不例外。AI大模型的网络需求与以往截然不同, 其特点是大范围全局性数据交换、数据流几乎完全可预测,因此势必要求新网络技术。 3)被动元件环节,OCS增加了光环行器、微透镜、分束器的使用。微透镜和分束器的OCS增量市场空间 合计不到5亿美元,光环行器的增量市场空间或可达到50亿美元。被动元件领域全球竞争格局相对分 散,不同厂商均有部 ...
中信证券:OCS技术路线未来增长确定性较强 建议对全产业链保持关注
人民财讯8月27日电,中信证券指出,AI数据中心使用OCS仍处在早期阶段,谷歌已实现产品落地,大 部分厂商仍在积极研发。中信证券认为OCS技术路线可行性高,优势明显,未来增长确定性较强,建议 对整机、核心器件、光学零部件等全产业链保持关注。按照产业链环节,中信证券梳理出三条投资主 线:一、整机环节,建议关注具备核心网光通信设备业务的厂商以及OCS代工厂商。二、核心器件环 节,建议关注光学MEMS供应商和代工厂。三、光学零部件环节,建议关注我国光学部件供应商。 ...
中信证券:OCS技术路线长期来看有望成为AI基建的主流
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-08-27 00:36
中信证券研报表示,需求决定供给是商业世界重要规律,AI大模型与以往截然不同的需求带来产业链 变革机遇。使用OCS构建大型算力集群,在高带宽、低延迟、低成本方面都胜过传统IB、RoCE技术, 该技术路线长期来看有望成为AI基建的主流,从而带动光通信全产业链变革。整机环节建议关注OCS整 机厂商、代工厂商、OTN整机厂商;核心器件环节建议关注光学MEMS代工厂、LCoS生产商;光学零 部件领域建议关注光环行器、微环调制器等市场。 (文章来源:第一财经) ...
Lumentum (LITE) FY Conference Transcript
2025-05-13 16:30
Summary of Lumentum (LITE) FY Conference Call - May 13, 2025 Company Overview - **Company**: Lumentum (LITE) - **Industry**: Optical components and networking solutions Key Points Demand and Market Outlook - No observed slowdown in ordering patterns; book-to-bill remains positive [3][4] - Customer feedback indicates continued strong demand, with no anticipated slowdown in the next four to five quarters [3][4] - CapEx spending from cloud companies is expected to remain stable or improve in 2026 compared to 2025 [6][7] Tariff Impact and Mitigation Strategies - Tariffs have impacted margins by approximately 100 basis points, primarily due to reverse tariffs on imports from the U.S. to China [8][9] - Lumentum has manufacturing facilities in both China and Thailand, allowing for flexible supply chain management to mitigate tariff impacts [9][10] - Plans to scale up manufacturing in Thailand as a primary strategy to navigate potential tariff challenges [12][13] Industry Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - The optical industry has changed significantly since the sale of Finisar; Lumentum now has a higher component mix and a strong laser footprint [16][17] - Increased demand from U.S. hyperscalers for domestic suppliers due to security concerns is driving market dynamics [20] - The rate of change in the market is accelerating, favoring companies that invest in innovation [21] Business Strategy and Growth Areas - Near-term growth is expected from the transceiver market, where Lumentum currently holds a low single-digit market share [22] - Long-term strategy aims to shift focus towards higher-margin components, particularly co-packaged optics [23][24] - Vertical integration is seen as beneficial but not essential for improving margins in the transceiver business [25][28] Revenue Opportunities and Product Development - Optical Communication Systems (OCS) are expected to generate early revenue by the end of the calendar year, with material revenue anticipated in Q2 FY 2026 [55] - OCS offers advantages in cost, power consumption, and latency, making it a strong alternative to electrical solutions in data centers [54] - The company is exploring opportunities in industrial applications, particularly in semiconductor packaging, to improve profitability [63] Financial Performance and Margin Expectations - Current gross margins for transceivers are below desired levels, with expectations to reach low to mid-30s percentage [49][52] - Overall business margins are targeted to exceed 40% as the company shifts focus towards components [52][53] Conclusion - Lumentum is positioned to capitalize on strong demand in the optical components market, with strategic plans to navigate tariff impacts and enhance profitability through innovation and vertical integration. The company aims to leverage its manufacturing capabilities and market dynamics to achieve sustainable growth in the coming years.