中金研究 我们参加了于3月17日-19日在美国洛杉矶举行的OFC 2026大会。作为全球光通信行业风向标之一，根据官网，本届大会汇聚超1.6万名参会人和700余 家参展企业，海内外科技企业同台竞技，纷纷展出光通信领域前沿技术与成果。从本次OFC大会中，我们感受到在位厂商对AI大周期的信心，建议关 注Scale up CPO/NPO、Scale across、OCS等光通信行业发展趋势。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 Scale up CPO趋势明确， NPO方案有 望率先放量。 CPO是本次OFC焦点话题之一。中国企业在FAU、ELS模块、OE光引擎封装等环节表现出产业引领地 位；日美企业在光芯片、连接插芯等环节展出更多创新方案。我们认为，尽管CPO在实现大规模商用上仍面临难题，但在scale up场景中，由于对 beachfront density和单位带宽功耗的要求明显高于scale out，CPO的意义更加突出、确切，产业共识认同CPO将在scale up增量场景中明确放量，我们预计 有望在2H27-2028放量。得益于NPO在维护成本、可靠性、产业链复制等方面的优势，我们判断2027 ...

证券研究报告 科技 GTC&OFC：算力奔跑，光铜共进 华泰研究 2026 年 3 月 22 日│中国内地 行业周报（第十二周） 本周观点 市场方面，上周通信（申万）指数上涨 2.10%，同期上证综指下跌 3.38%， 深证成指下跌 2.90%。上周，GTC&OFC 大会召开，全球算力迎来新变化： 1）光模块&光芯片：Arista 牵头推出 XPO 光模块，Lumentum 给出未来上 游光通信需求的乐观指引；2）CPO：英伟达继续推进 CPO 战略，COHR 等指出 Scale-out 侧已出货/量产，Scale-up 侧预计 27 年底起量；3）OCS： Lumentum 新签多年、数亿美元级大单；4）铜连接：英伟达支持"光铜共 进"。综上，我们建议继续关注全球算力产业链（光通信、铜连接、液冷等）。 周专题：GTC&OFC：算力奔跑，光铜共进 上周，GTC、OFC 大会召开，我们看到全球算力迎来新变化：1）光模块& 光芯片：Arista 牵头推出 12.8T XPO 光模块，Lumentum 给予光芯片需求 乐观指引：预计 26 年底 EML 出货量同比提升 50%+，预计 InP 2025-2030 年 ...

GTC&OFC 总结：光互联、全液冷大时代 2026 年 03 月 21 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 60% 72% 84% 96% 108% 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 通信 沪深300 相关研究报告 《重视"Token 工厂"三大投资主线 —行业点评报告》-2026.3.19 《GTC&OFC 或催化光、液冷、电源 等板块—行业周报》-2026.3.15 《重视腾讯云涨价投资机会—行业点 评报告》-2026.3.11 蒋颖（分析师） 杜致远（联系人） duzhiyuan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790124070064 GTC 大会：全新架构亮相 GTC 2026 大会，英伟达营收预计达万亿 GTC 2026 大会于 2026 年 3 月 17 日开幕，英伟达展示了采用台积电 3nm EU V 工艺、搭载 HBM4 内存的全新 Rubin 系统，该系统由 7 款芯片组成并搭配 5 套不同场景的机架式架构，其中 LPU 亮眼登场，推理、训练性能大幅提升 且单 Token 成本降低 10 倍，将于 ...

Q&A 与 2025 年相比，2026 年 OFC 大会在市场关注度、产业进展以及技术方向 上呈现出哪些显著的变化和超预期的亮点？ OFC 光电连接亮点梳理 20260322 摘要 光通信速率跨代跃升，2026 年 OFC 焦点直指 6.4T/12.8T，3.2T 仅为 过渡方案，AI 芯片互联需求倒逼技术迭代超预期。 2027 年全球高速光模块市场规模预计达 800 亿美元，其中 800G 与 1.6T 出货量预期均上调至 8,000 万只，可插拔方案仍是资金容纳量最 大的主航道。 CPO 技术确定性落地，预计 2026 年小批量组网，2027 年底大规模应 用；OCS 成为超预期增量市场，2030 年规模看至 40 亿美元。 DCI 市场受分布式算力驱动，预计 2026 年下半年爆发，2030 年规模 达 80-100 亿美元，相干技术成为电信级产品切入数据中心的关键。 中国厂商影响力剧增，中际旭创、新易盛、华工科技等技术达行业首创， 并首次加入北美标准联盟，产业链地位从跟随转向定义标准。 AEC 铜连接在 1.6T 时代凭借性价比优势保持竞争力，传输距离提升至 6-7 米，预计 2027 年市场规模至少 ...

North America Equity Research 17 March 2026 J P M O R G A N Hardware & Networking OFC Insights: Executive Forum Takeaways The first day of the Optical Fiber Communication (OFC) Conference opened with the Executive Forum, featuring a plethora of industry leaders, including CEOs, CTOs, and senior engineers from the likes of large hyperscalers and model builders (e.g., Google, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI) as well as infrastructure and component providers (e.g., Arista, Broadcom, Ciena, Coherent, Lumentum, Marvell, ...

直击 2026 OFC20260319 摘要 AI 算力需求驱动 Scale-across（跨域拓展）成为新趋势，其带宽需求 约为传统 DCI 网络的 14 倍，目前渗透率不足 30%，增长空间巨大。 Scale-up 场景中 CPO、NPO、XPO 技术路线并存，英伟达主推 CPO， 但因供应链成熟度问题，具备热插拔、高密度优势的 XPO 方案近期关注 度显著提升。 XPO 封装相比 1.6T OSFP 模块面板密度提升 4 倍，集成冷板设计支持 400W+散热，有效解决了风冷散热瓶颈并延长了可插拔模块生命周期。 薄膜铌酸锂与硅光结合的 PIC 方案成为单波 400G 主流，预计在 3.2T 及更高增速市场渗透领先；VCSEL 方案有望缓解 EML/CW 光源供应链 紧张。 Lumentum 预测 2030 年相关市场空间达 900 亿美元，其 OCS 业务已 获数十亿美元协议；Ciena 在云厂商光系统市场份额达 53%，800G 相 关产品 2026 年产能已售罄。 中国厂商在光封装领域实力雄厚，旭创、新易盛、天孚通信等已布局 NPO/XPO/OCS 及 2.5D 封装，有望在 CPO 时代实现从代工到 ...

以下文章来源于More Than Semi ，作者mofan More Than Semi . More Than SEMI 半导体行业研究 今年三月的洛杉矶，OFC 大会再次刷新了规模纪录。走在展厅里，你能明显感受到一种兴奋的氛围 ——光通信技术正在从幕后走向台前，成为 AI 数据中心架构中不可或缺的核心要素。 Coherent 的 CEO Jim Anderson 在会上开门见山地说了一句话："我觉得现在可能是光通信行业有史 以来最好的时候。"这不是客套话，从他们展示的技术路线图和产品时间表来看，这家公司确实站在了 一个关键的转折点上。 一个 500 亿美元的基本盘，加上 200 亿美元的新故事 Coherent 现在的生意可以分成两部分来看。第一部分是他们已经在做的事情——插拔式光模块、DCI 收发器、传输设备，这些加起来大概是个 500 亿美元的市场。这块业务很稳，也在持续增长，但真正 让人兴奋的是第二部分。 他们押注了四个新方向，每一个都不是 PPT 上的概念，而是今年下半年到明年就能看到真金白银的产 品。这四个方向加起来，能再带来 200 多亿美元的增量市场。更关键的是，这些新业务的毛利率都比 传 ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|通信 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 通信行业 OFC 光模块龙头多元化卡位超预期 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2026-03-19 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -20% 3% 26% 48% 71% 94% 03/25 05/25 08/25 10/25 01/26 03/26 通信 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]韩东 | | --- | | SAC 执证号：S0260523050005 | | 021-38003776 | | gfhandong@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 王昊 | | SAC 执证号：S0260525030001 | | 021-38003541 | | shwanghao@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 王亮 | | SAC 执证号：S0260519060001 | | SFC CE No. BFS478 | | 021-38003658 | | gfwangliang@gf.com.cn | ...

Summary of Lumentum Holdings Inc Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE.O) - **Industry**: Telecom & Networking Equipment - **Market Cap**: $57,031 million - **Current Stock Price**: $649.56 (as of March 17, 2026) - **Price Target**: Increased from $520.00 to $595.00, with a bull case of $900.00 [2][13] Key Industry Insights - **Optical Content Demand**: There is a consensus that optical content is increasing rapidly, with a total addressable market (TAM) projected to grow to over $90 billion, reflecting a growth rate of approximately 40% in the coming years [4][9]. - **OCS and CPO Growth**: The OCS (Optical Communications Solutions) business is expected to ramp to over $1 billion by CY2027, driven by a new multi-billion-dollar agreement with a key customer [5][9]. The company anticipates significant scale-out CPO (Coherent Photonic Optics) revenue in 2027 and scale-up in 2028 [5]. Financial Performance and Projections - **Revenue Growth**: - FY2026 revenue is estimated at $2,915 million, a 77% increase year-over-year. - FY2027 revenue is projected to reach $4,986 million, a 71% increase year-over-year [25][47]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - FY2026 EPS is estimated at $7.73, with FY2027 EPS projected at $14.98 [6][25]. - Quarterly EPS estimates for 2026 range from $1.10 in Q1 to $2.56 in Q4 [7]. - **Margins**: - Gross margins are expected to improve from 43.3% in FY2026 to 49.7% in FY2028, with operating margins increasing from 27.2% to 38.9% over the same period [25][48]. Investment Drivers - **CPO and OCS Adoption**: The company is positioned to benefit from the growing adoption of CPO and OCS technologies, which are expected to contribute significantly to revenue and profitability [9][19]. - **New Fab Location**: Lumentum announced the acquisition of a fifth InP fab to enhance capacity, which could potentially add $5 billion in revenue by 2028 [11]. - **Market Dynamics**: The company is navigating a tight market environment, which is expected to persist, allowing for better pricing power and revenue stability [4][9]. Risks and Considerations - **Valuation Concerns**: The stock is currently trading at a relatively high valuation of 27x FY28 estimates, which may limit upside potential unless growth expectations are met [4][13]. - **Market Dependencies**: The company's performance is closely tied to the demand for optical components and the broader AI ecosystem, which poses risks if market conditions change [13][24]. - **Geopolitical Risks**: The intricate manufacturing processes and concentration in Asia may expose the company to risks related to tariffs and supply chain disruptions [21]. Conclusion Lumentum Holdings Inc is positioned for significant growth driven by increasing demand for optical solutions, particularly in the OCS and CPO segments. The company's financial outlook is strong, with substantial revenue and EPS growth projected over the next few years. However, investors should remain cautious of valuation levels and external market risks that could impact performance.

Fabrinet (NYSE: FN) 2026 Conference Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Fabrinet - **Industry**: Contract Manufacturing in Optical Components - **Event**: Investor Q&A session at OFC 2026 - **Date**: March 17, 2026 Key Points Growth and Financial Performance - Fabrinet reported a **36% year-over-year growth rate** in the last quarter, with a **compound annual growth rate of 16%** over the past ten years [3][5] - For FY25, the company achieved a **19% growth**, and guidance for the current quarter indicates a **35% growth** at the midpoint [5] - The telecom business saw a **59% increase** year-over-year, driven by strong demand in Data Center Interconnect (DCI) and high-performance computing (HPC) [6][8] Business Segments and Drivers - **Telecom Business**: Major growth driver, particularly in DCI, which is primarily supported by 400ZR and 800ZR technologies [9][10] - **High-Performance Computing (HPC)**: New category for Fabrinet, with revenue growing from **$15 million in Q1 to $86 million in Q2** [6][10] - **Datacom Business**: Flat revenue due to supply constraints, but demand remains strong [7][8] Capacity and Expansion Plans - Current run rate is approximately **$4.6-$4.8 billion**, with a capacity of **$5.5 billion** [37] - New facility in Chonburi, Building 10, will add **$3 billion** in capacity, bringing total capacity to **$8.5 billion** [38] - Future plans include the potential for two additional factories, each with a capacity of **$1.5 billion**, leading to a total capacity of **$11.5 billion** [38] Customer Relationships and Market Position - Fabrinet operates as a **pure play contract manufacturer**, focusing on supporting leading companies without entering the product market [14][16] - The company has established strong relationships with major customers, including AWS, and is positioned to capture significant market share in emerging technologies like Co-packaged Optics (CPO) and Optical Circuit Switching (OCS) [16][49] - Customers are providing multi-year visibility into demand, allowing Fabrinet to align capacity with future needs [8][81] Supply Chain and Operational Efficiency - The company is experiencing supply chain constraints, particularly with EML components, but improvements are expected as new sources are approved [74] - Fabrinet maintains a low operational expenditure (OpEx) of **1.5% of revenue**, which is significantly lower than industry standards [84] - The company emphasizes flexibility in operations, allowing customers to adjust their needs without financial penalties [97] Competitive Landscape - Fabrinet's unique capabilities in packaging and manufacturing processes set it apart from competitors, with **70% of manufacturing space dedicated to clean room operations** [23] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for optical components driven by hyperscalers and the overall expansion of data centers [105] Future Outlook - The demand for optical components is expected to remain robust, with significant growth opportunities in DCI, HPC, and emerging technologies [106] - Fabrinet's strategy focuses on maintaining competitive pricing while ensuring high-quality service and execution for customers [32][86] Additional Insights - The company is cautious about potential risks and emphasizes the importance of execution in maintaining customer satisfaction and business growth [85] - Fabrinet's relationship with Lumentum is strong, with potential for further collaboration in the OCS market [69] This summary encapsulates the key insights and strategic directions discussed during the Fabrinet conference, highlighting the company's growth trajectory, market positioning, and operational strategies.