Group 1 - Ctrip Group and the Turkish Tourism Promotion and Development Agency have announced a deepened strategic partnership to promote Turkey as a "super destination" for global tourists [1] - Ctrip's data indicates that inbound flight bookings to Turkey are expected to grow by 38% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, while hotel bookings are projected to increase by 16% [1] - Major source markets for Turkey include the UK, Germany, and China, with Indonesia showing remarkable growth in bookings, up 178% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - In Q3, Ctrip's outbound hotel and flight bookings reached 140% of the same period in 2019, with a year-on-year growth of nearly 20%, outperforming market trends [1] - Popular outbound destinations include Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia, with Europe, particularly Iceland and Norway, showing significant booking increases [1] - Ctrip's overall accommodation booking revenue in Q3 grew by 18% year-on-year and 29% quarter-on-quarter, driven by strong tourism demand during summer and the National Day holiday [1] Group 3 - The company's international business saw a total booking volume growth of approximately 60% in Q3, with the Asia-Pacific region remaining a key focus [1] - The Trip.com app experienced a 69% year-on-year growth in monthly active users globally (excluding mainland China) during October and November, with a 64% increase in the Asian market [1] - Domestic hotel prices showed signs of stabilization, with a narrowing year-on-year decline in Q3, and a rising trend during the Golden Week [1] Group 4 - Ctrip's adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 has been raised from 18.3 billion to 32.3 billion, maintaining projections of 20 billion and 22 billion for 2026 and 2027 respectively [2] - The adjusted PE ratios for 2025-2027 are projected to be 11, 17, and 16 times, respectively, reflecting confidence in the company's overseas business growth [2]

Core Viewpoint - Dongwu Securities maintains a "Buy" rating on Trip.com Group (09961), highlighting strong growth potential in its overseas business and an upward revision of the adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 from 18.3 billion to 32.3 billion yuan [1] Recent Events - Trip.com has deepened its strategic partnership with the Turkish Tourism Promotion and Development Agency, aiming to position Turkey as a "super destination" for global travelers. Data shows that inbound flight bookings to Turkey are expected to grow by 38% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with hotel bookings increasing by 16%. Notably, Indonesia's booking volume surged by 178% year-on-year, contributing to the rising popularity of inbound tourism in Turkey [1] International Business Growth - Outbound travel: In Q3, Trip.com's outbound hotel and flight bookings reached 140% of the same period in 2019, with a year-on-year increase of nearly 20%. During the Golden Week, bookings grew by approximately 30%. Popular destinations include Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia, with Europe showing significant growth, particularly in Iceland and Norway. Despite a decrease in cross-border flight prices compared to last year, they remain above pre-pandemic levels, while hotel prices have stabilized [2] - International business: Q3 saw a 60% year-on-year increase in total bookings on Trip.com, with the Asia-Pacific region being a key operational focus, growing over 50%. New markets in the Middle East and Europe also showed impressive growth. The company has achieved rapid market share growth and plans to continue investing globally, especially in the Asia-Pacific region. According to Sensor Tower data, the Trip.com app's monthly active users (MAU) outside mainland China grew by 69% year-on-year, with a 64% increase in the Asian market [2] Domestic Market Trends - Domestic hotel prices have shown signs of stabilization, with Q3 overall accommodation booking revenue increasing by 18% year-on-year and 29% quarter-on-quarter, driven by strong tourism demand, particularly during the summer and National Day holidays. There is a diverse and growing demand for unique and immersive travel experiences among domestic consumers, with increased bookings in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, and even remote areas. Hotel price declines narrowed to low single digits in Q3, with an upward trend during the Golden Week. Inbound travel bookings on Trip.com increased by over 100% year-on-year in Q3, with the Asia-Pacific region as the main source market, alongside strong growth from Europe and the United States [3]

Core Viewpoint - Dongwu Securities maintains a "Buy" rating on Trip.com Group (09961), highlighting strong growth potential in its overseas business and an upward revision of adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 from 18.3 billion to 32.3 billion RMB [1] Recent Events - Trip.com Group has deepened its strategic partnership with the Turkish Tourism Promotion and Development Agency, aiming to position Turkey as a "super destination" for global travelers. Data shows that inbound flight bookings to Turkey increased by 38% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with hotel bookings up by 16%. Notably, Indonesia's bookings surged by 178% year-on-year, contributing to the rising popularity of inbound tourism in Turkey [1] International Business Growth - Outbound travel: In Q3, Trip.com's outbound hotel and flight bookings reached 140% of the same period in 2019, with a year-on-year growth of nearly 20%. During the Golden Week, bookings increased by approximately 30%. Popular destinations included Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia, with significant growth in Europe, particularly in Iceland and Norway. Despite a decrease in cross-border flight prices compared to last year, prices remain above pre-pandemic levels, while hotel prices remained stable [2] - International business: Trip.com reported a 60% year-on-year increase in total bookings in Q3, with the Asia-Pacific region as a key operational focus, growing over 50%. New markets in the Middle East and Europe also showed impressive growth. The company has achieved rapid market share growth and plans to continue investing globally, especially in the Asia-Pacific region. According to Sensor Tower data, the Trip.com app's monthly active users (MAU) outside mainland China grew by 69% year-on-year, with a 64% increase in the Asian market [2] Domestic Market Performance - Domestic hotel prices have shown signs of stabilization, with Q3 overall accommodation booking revenue increasing by 18% year-on-year and 29% quarter-on-quarter, driven by strong tourism demand, particularly during the summer and National Day holiday. There is a growing diversity in tourism demand, with increased bookings in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu, as well as in remote areas. Hotel price declines narrowed to low single digits in Q3, with an upward trend during the Golden Week. Inbound travel bookings on Trip.com increased by over 100% year-on-year in Q3, with the Asia-Pacific region as the main source market, alongside strong growth from Europe and the U.S. [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ctrip Group-S (09961.HK) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the continuous expansion in overseas markets, with an optimistic outlook on the increase in international business share and profit margins [1][8] - Ctrip's international business is experiencing rapid growth, with significant increases in booking volumes, particularly in Turkey and other key markets [8] - The company's adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 has been raised from 18.3 billion to 32.3 billion RMB, reflecting strong performance and market share growth [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from 44.51 billion RMB in 2023 to 76.17 billion RMB by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.39% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase significantly from 9.92 billion RMB in 2023 to 21.22 billion RMB in 2027, with a peak growth rate of 606.91% in 2024 [1] - Non-GAAP net profit is forecasted to rise from 13.07 billion RMB in 2023 to 22.02 billion RMB in 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [1] Market Data - The closing price of Ctrip Group-S is 537.50 HKD, with a market capitalization of approximately 349.13 billion HKD [5] - The stock has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 35.19 based on the latest diluted earnings per share (EPS) [1] - The company has a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 2.08, indicating its valuation relative to its book value [5] Operational Highlights - Ctrip's outbound travel bookings have reached 140% of the levels seen in the same period of 2019, with a year-on-year growth of nearly 20% [8] - The company has established a strategic partnership with the Turkish tourism board to promote Turkey as a global tourist destination, resulting in a 38% increase in inbound flight bookings to Turkey [8] - The report notes a stabilization in domestic hotel prices and a significant increase in inbound travel bookings, with over 100% growth year-on-year [8]