Global Power Shift Robert Hamilton The China-Russia Relationship The Dance of the Dragon and the Bear Global Power Shift Series Editor Xuewu Gu, Center for Global Studies, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany Managing Editor Hendrik W. Ohnesorge, Center for Global Studies, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany Advisory Editors G. John Ikenberry, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA Canrong Jin, Renmin University of Beijing, Beijing, China Srikanth Kondapalli, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India Beate ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 USA | REITs 2025 Storage Outlook: Cautious on Initial Guidance; Optimistic on 2H Recovery We are cautiously positive on the Self Storage sector into 2025. We expect initial guidance will be conservative so there is no rush to buy ahead of the quarter; however, we believe that any recovery in the housing market, in 2025, will be met by renewed storage demand and upward revisions to guidance and estimates. We see EXR and NSA as uniquely positioned to drive earnings, but see the lo ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 USA | Energy 2025 Energy Outlook: 10 Questions, 40 Charts 2024 was a rollercoaster year for energy, with significant dispersion being the group's defining characteristic. We believe 2025 will be similar, with US deregulation and global demand growth being primary drivers of sub-sector performance. We summarize key themes and sub-sectors within, focusing particularly on equities with exposure to demand pull and/or self-help initiatives 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：s ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 USA | Lodging Stars Aligned for Lodging in 2025: Previewing C- corps & REITs Our view on Lodging stocks going into 2025 is incrementally positive, with a more stable macro environment, balanced fundamentals, and sustainable growth. The continuing execution of unit and pipeline growth for C-corps, the ease of YoY comparison, and ROI projects for REITs, in the context of an improving interest rate outlook, support higher valuations. We maintain our ratings on Lodging companies and ...

Key Points 1. **Industry**: Global Internet Companies 2. **Document Type**: Valuation and Market Cap Comparison 3. **Date**: January 2, 2025 4. **Source**: J.P. Morgan Securities LLC 5. **Coverage**: Companies across various regions including the U.S., China, Korea, Europe, Latin America, and ASEAN Key Points by Region U.S. 1. **Amazon.com Inc (AMZN)**: Market Cap of $2.355 trillion, GAAP P/E of 42.2x, Non-GAAP P/E of 37.9x, EV/EBITDA of 25%, and EV/FCF of 25%. 2. **Alphabet Inc (GOOGL)**: Market Cap of $2.351 trillion, GAAP P/E of 23.4x, Non-GAAP P/E of 20.9x, EV/EBITDA of 21%, and EV/FCF of 21%. 3. **Meta (META)**: Market Cap of $1.522 trillion, GAAP P/E of 25.9x, Non-GAAP P/E of 22.6x, EV/EBITDA of 21%, and EV/FCF of 21%. China 1. **Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK)**: Market Cap of $465.246 billion, GAAP P/E of 19.8x, Non-GAAP P/E of 17.6x, EV/EBITDA of 36%, and EV/FCF of 28%. 2. **Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA US)**: Market Cap of $204.789 billion, GAAP P/E of 14.2x, Non-GAAP P/E of 10.9x, EV/EBITDA of 21%, and EV/FCF of 6%. 3. **Pinduoduo Inc (PDD US)**: Market Cap of $134.697 billion, GAAP P/E of 9.2x, Non-GAAP P/E of 8.5x, EV/EBITDA of 40%, and EV/FCF of 40%. Korea 1. **Coupang (CPNG US)**: Market Cap of $39.539 billion, GAAP P/E of 34.3x, Non-GAAP P/E of 34.3x, EV/EBITDA of 27.1x, and EV/FCF of 15.3x. 2. **Naver (035420 KS)**: Market Cap of $20.766 billion, GAAP P/E of 18.5x, Non-GAAP P/E of 17.1x, EV/EBITDA of 10.9x, and EV/FCF of 9.1x. 3. **NCSoft (036570 KS)**: Market Cap of $2.702 billion, GAAP P/E of 22.6x, Non-GAAP P/E of 18.8x, EV/EBITDA of 15.9x, and EV/FCF of 10.3x. Europe 1. **Prosus (PRX NA)**: Market Cap of €97.158 billion, GAAP P/E of 11.6x, Non-GAAP P/E of 9.8x, EV/EBITDA of 45%, and EV/FCF of 45%. 2. **Zalando (ZAL GR)**: Market Cap of €8.850 billion, GAAP P/E of 35.2x, Non-GAAP P/E of 32.4x, EV/EBITDA of 25.6x, and EV/FCF of 26.5x. 3. **Auto Trader (AUTO LN)**: Market Cap of £793 million, GAAP P/E of 25.8x, Non-GAAP P/E of 23.6x, EV/EBITDA of 18.8x, and EV/FCF of 17.0x. Latin America 1. **MercadoLibre, Inc (MELI US)**: Market Cap of $86.208 billion, GAAP P/E of 50.6x, Non-GAAP P/E of 39.2x, EV/EBITDA of 26.8x, and EV/FCF of 20.0x. 2. **Magazine Luiza (MGLU3 BZ)**: Market Cap of R$8.29 billion, GAAP P/E of 11.8x, Non-GAAP P/E of 10.3x, EV/EBITDA of 1.8x, and EV/FCF of 1.6x. ASEAN 1. **Sea Ltd (SE US)**: Market Cap of $60.725 billion, GAAP P/E of 37.9x, Non-GAAP P/E of 37.9x, EV/EBITDA of 48.9x, and EV/FCF of 25.5x. 2. **Grab Holdings Ltd (GRAB US)**: Market Cap of $19.007 billion, GAAP P/E of 67.4x, Non-GAAP P/E of 67.4x, EV/EBITDA of 94.4x, and EV/FCF of 33.7x. 3. **Bukalapak (BUKA IJ)**: Market Cap of Rp125 billion, GAAP P/E of 23.3x, Non-GAAP P/E of 18.8x, EV/EBITDA of 23.3x, and EV/FCF of 18.8x. Additional Notes 1. **Non-GAAP EPS**: Excludes the impact of stock-based compensation. 2. **Adj. EBITDA**: Excludes stock-based compensation except for BKNG & SFIX. 3. **Fiscal Year End**: Varies by company. 4. **Source**: Company Reports, Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan estimates

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Tesla Inc (TSLA US) Reduce: 4Q24 deliveries miss poses growth question The numbers: Auto miss, storage beat: 4Q24 deliveries came in at 496k, 3% below VA consensus. At 1,789k, 2024 deliveries were down 1% YoY, missing company guidance of "slight growth in 2024". Moreover, production in 4Q24 looked weak; at 459k units, it was down 7% YoY and 7% below deliveries. Weak production could imply soft sales development into 1Q25, raising questions over TSLA's ambition to grow deliveries ...

Key Takeaways Industry or Company Involved * **Tesla Inc (TSLA.O, TSLA US)**: The focus of the document is on Tesla Inc, a leading electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer. Core Views and Arguments * **4Q Delivery Miss**: Tesla missed its delivery expectations by 3% in 4Q, primarily due to a relatively aged product lineup and increased competition from lower-priced EVs ahead of the introduction of the new, cheaper model (Juniper) in early/mid-2025. * **Inventory Reduction**: Despite the delivery miss, Tesla achieved a 6 to 7-day reduction in days' supply of inventory in 4Q, driven by delivering 36k more units than it produced. This resulted in a ~$1.6bn working capital inflow during the quarter. * **Energy Storage Deployment**: Tesla's energy storage deployments exceeded expectations by 15% in 4Q, with 11.0 GWh deployed vs. 9.09 GWh expected. This brought the annual growth rate to 113% y/y compared to 2023. * **Valuation**: Morgan Stanley's price target for Tesla is $400.00, based on a valuation methodology that considers the core Tesla Auto business, Tesla Mobility, third-party supplier, energy, and network services. Other Important Content * **Morgan Stanley's Stock Rating**: Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating on Tesla, with an industry view of "In-Line" and a price target of $400.00. * **Risks**: The document highlights various risks to Tesla's upside and downside, including competition, execution risk, market recognition of new services, China risk, and valuation. * **Analyst Certification**: Adam Jonas, CFA, the lead analyst on the report, certifies that their views are accurately expressed and that they have not received compensation for expressing specific recommendations or views. References * [doc id='2'] * [doc id='5'] * [doc id='6'] * [doc id='10'] * [doc id='15']

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 USA | Chemicals Ecolab Thematic Opportunities Offset F/X Headwinds & Macro Uncertainty To reflect adverse F/X and policy uncertainty, we trim 2024E EPS by 0.5%, 2025E EPS by 0.7% and 2026E EPS by 2.2%. An initial range of $7.35-$7.60 (vs $7.48 consensus) appears plausible for 2025, in our view, with roughly half of EPS growth driven by net pricing, productivity and buybacks. Thematically, clarity on earnings leverage to digital initiatives will likely drive relative valuation th ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 January 2, 2025 08:22 PM GMT US Economics | North America M Idea Employment Report Preview: Solid, but slowing We forecast 150k in December payrolls, following November's 227k rise that we estimate at 127k ex storms and strikes. We see no further fundamental weakening in December, but payrolls have slowed from earlier in the year. The UE rate increases to 4.3% and AHE rises 0.3%. Exhibit 1: Employment forecast details | Employment Report: Forecasts & Recent History | | | | | | | ...

We believe the company will continue to ramp up its production capacity, as a result, further upward revision of its shipments target is likely in 2025, we think. 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 January 2, 2025 12:00 AM GMT Xiaomi Corp | Asia Pacific M Update EV Delivery Volume Upbeat in 2024, Raise Shipments Target to 300k in 2025 Key Takeaways 2024 EV shipments exceeded 135k units. 2025 EV shipments target raised to 300k units. According to Xiaomi, its EV delivery volume exceeded 135k units in 2024, which is ...