Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **A-share market** in China, with a particular emphasis on investor sentiment and market conditions for 2025 [3][11]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Declining Investor Sentiment**: A-share sentiment has dropped significantly, with the weighted and simple Morgan Stanley A-share Sentiment Indicator (MSASI) decreasing by 8 percentage points to 77% and 7 percentage points to 66%, respectively, compared to the previous week [4]. - **Earnings Pressure**: There is a persistent downward pressure on earnings, leading to a more challenging equity market outlook for 2025. The consensus earnings estimate revision breadth is also trending downward [3][11]. - **Market Volatility**: The market is expected to remain volatile due to a mixed macroeconomic backdrop, including potential tariffs from the U.S. on major trading partners, which could impact the Chinese market [6][11]. - **Net Inflows**: Southbound net inflows into the A-share market continued for the 38th consecutive week, totaling **US$2.6 billion** during the week of November 21-27, with year-to-date inflows reaching **US$89.6 billion** [5]. Important Metrics and Data - **Average Daily Turnover**: The average daily turnover for ChiNext, A-shares, Equity Futures, and Northbound decreased by 10%, 11%, 17%, and 17%, respectively, during the week of November 21-27 compared to the previous cycle [4]. - **PMI Expectations**: The official manufacturing PMI is expected to remain steady at **50.1** in November, indicating continued expansion [6]. - **Housing Market Trends**: The housing market remains muted, with October housing prices showing a softer month-on-month drop, although land sales are weak, reflecting low developer confidence [6]. Strategic Recommendations - **Preference for A-shares**: The company recommends a preference for the A-share market over offshore markets due to its relative insensitivity to geopolitical uncertainties and direct liquidity support from the People's Bank of China [12]. - **Investment Strategy for 2025**: Key trades include buying more A-shares, focusing on stocks with better earnings and shareholder return outlooks, and avoiding stocks exposed to tariffs or supply chain risks [12]. Additional Considerations - **Geopolitical Risks**: The potential for further escalation in U.S.-China tensions and the impact of a weaker currency on the equity risk premium are highlighted as significant risks for the market [11]. - **Profit-Taking**: There may be profit-taking in the near term due to relatively good performance year-to-date, which could add to market pressures [11]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook for the A-share market in China.

M Foundation Asia EM Equity Strategy | Asia Pacific November 29, 2024 05:56 AM GMT Flows & Positioning Guide In October, GEM long-only managers continued to reduce underweights in China & Malaysia, and added to Brazil overweight, funded by adding underweights in India & Taiwan and cutting Korea overweight. In the week ended November 27, 2024, EM equity funds had outflows led by China and India. EM weekly flows – Outflows continued, led by China and India: EM equity funds recorded US$0.8bn outflows for the w ...

Asia Pacific Equity Research 29 November 2024 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. China autos in Mexico under Trump 2.0 Takeaways from expert call with Mexico's former chief negotiator for USMCA | --- | --- | |------------------------------------ ...

V i e w p o i n t | 28 Nov 2024 22:00:37 ET │ 30 pages Fund Flow Insights Outflows from both equity and bond funds in EM CITI'S TAKE US$29.4bn inflow into equity funds — In the week ended 11/27/2024, bond funds and equity funds saw inflows of US$10.3bn and US$29.4bn respectively. US funds continue to see strong inflows with US$40.7bn going into their ETFs. Global funds also enjoyed an inflow of US$2.6bn. Japan funds however had US$5.0bn of net redemptions. US$1.8bn outflow from EM funds — Outflows from Chin ...

Jefferies EUROPE | Food & HPC Equity Research November 29, 2024 | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | Expert Call: Future Use of Data and A ...

shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Strategic Research 27 November 2024 J P M O R G A N shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： J.P. Morgan Perspectives shuinu9870 Made in China 2025 meets America First: Will de-risking turn into decoupling? 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------- ...

shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： positioning continues to gradually climb but it remains low overall ( Exhibit 18 ). M Foundation | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 27 Nov 2024 11:09:18 ET │ 8 pages US Economics shuinu9870 Core PCE inflation elevated, but will not stop rate cuts 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： CITI'S TAKE Core PCE at 0.27%MoM was close to our and consensus estimates. The second month of elevated core inflation follows a spell of softer prints and will not be enough to stop the Fed from cutting rates i ...

Summary of H World Group Limited (HTHT) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: H World Group Limited (HTHT / 1179 HK) - **Industry**: Hotel Operations and Franchising - **Date of Report**: November 27, 2024 Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - **3Q24 Results**: Total revenue increased by 2.4% YoY, which was 2% behind consensus but in line with estimates [8][9] - **Revenue Segmentation**: - Legacy Huazhu revenue grew by 1% YoY, while Legacy-DH grew by 8.9% YoY [9] - RevPAR for Legacy Huazhu declined by 8.1% YoY to RMB256, with ADR down by about 7% YoY to RMB301 [9] - **Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA**: Approximately RMB2.1 billion, below consensus estimates of RMB2.3 billion [9] - **4Q24 Revenue Guidance**: Expected to increase by 1%-5% YoY, which is below market consensus of 6.6% [9] Market Outlook - **RevPAR Expectations**: - Anticipated to decline by mid-single digits YoY in 4Q24 due to soft business travel compared to leisure travel [9] - Expected to stabilize in 2025, with market share gains amid rising hotel chain penetration [9] - **Hotel Openings**: More than 2,400 hotels expected to open in 2025, exceeding prior expectations [9] Strategic Initiatives - **Membership Expansion**: Plans to expand into more regions and enhance partnerships with airlines and ride-hailing services [9] - **Quality of Hotel Supply**: Focus on high-quality hotels, with a reduction in low-quality hotel supply [9] - **Asset-Light Model**: Continued pursuit of an asset-light model, with closures expected to exceed the first half of the year but remain below third-quarter levels [9] Valuation and Price Target - **Current Price Target**: DCF-based price target lowered to USD 45 / HKD 36 from USD 50 / HKD 39, reflecting a +36% upside potential [9][21] - **Risks**: Key risks include slower-than-expected RevPAR recovery, slower EBITDA margin recovery, and changes in the macro environment [9][60] Sustainability and ESG Considerations - **Top Material Issues**: - Ecological impacts due to tourism and waste generation [24] - Labor practices, emphasizing the need for a healthy working environment [24] - **Company Targets**: Focus on reducing environmental footprint and contributing to a low-carbon society [24] Catalysts for Growth - **RevPAR Growth**: Stronger-than-expected RevPAR growth could act as a catalyst [25] - **Hotel Development Pipeline**: A robust hotel development pipeline is anticipated to support growth [25] Additional Important Information - **Market Capitalization**: Approximately USD 10.5 billion [9] - **Stock Performance**: 52-week high-low range of USD 42.98 - USD 27.03 [9] - **Analyst Ratings**: Maintained a "Buy" rating based on the company's growth potential and market positioning [9][21] This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call regarding H World Group Limited, highlighting its financial performance, market outlook, strategic initiatives, valuation, sustainability efforts, and potential growth catalysts.

shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： November 26, 2024 01:19 PM GMT M Update | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...