Global FX Strategy FX Compass: EUR still underpricing tariff risk Figure 1: Breakevens diverge vs oil and point to inflationary risks of tariffs 1.80 1.90 2.00 2.10 2.20 2.30 2.40 2.50 2.60 2.70 2.80 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 Feb-23 Apr-23 Jun-23 Aug-23 Oct-23 Dec-23 Feb-24 Apr-24 Jun-24 Aug-24 Oct-24 Dec-24 WTI crude oil, 1st contract ($/bbl) US 5-year inflation breakeven (%, rhs) Source: Bloomberg, UBS Fears of US tariffs have driven a surge in realized FX volatility this week, but so far have had limit ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **US Economics** sector, specifically analyzing trade data and its implications for the economy. Core Insights and Arguments - The **trade balance** in December widened significantly from **-$78.9 billion** to **-$98.4 billion**, attributed to increased imports and a decline in exports [1][4][6] - **Goods imports** rose by **4.1%**, while **goods exports** fell by **4.2%** [4][6] - A notable increase in imports was driven by **industrial supplies**, particularly **finished metal shapes** [7][8] - Approximately **$11.3 billion** of the total increase in goods imports came from **Switzerland**, which saw a rise from **-$3.9 billion** to **-$13.0 billion** in trade deficit [5][7] - The **goods trade deficit** with **Canada** increased from **-$5.0 billion** to **-$7.9 billion**, while the deficit with **Mexico** remained stable at **-$15.2 billion** [5] Potential Risks and Considerations - There is uncertainty regarding whether the strong imports are due to **front-loading** ahead of potential tariffs, although recent data does not clearly indicate this [6][8] - The **threat of tariffs** could lead to further widening of the trade deficit, particularly with Canada and Mexico, following a **30-day delay** in tariffs [10][11] - The report suggests that trade data may remain **volatile** in the coming months due to these tariff implications [10] Additional Important Information - The report highlights that **exports** also fell across various sectors, with the most significant declines in **autos** and **industrial supplies** [9] - The overall increase in imports from countries like **Australia** (+77% MoM) and **Hong Kong** (+284% MoM) suggests potential one-off disruptions, possibly related to seasonal adjustments [8] - The widening trade deficit is expected to exert downward pressure on **GDP growth** in Q1, although this may be offset by stronger investment or inventory levels [10]

KEY THOUGHTS AFTER CALLS WITH MANAGEMENT • Another Year of Heavy Infra Investment. Rather uncharacteristically Google guided to capex spending — $75B in 2025, a 43% increase on top of a 63% increase in 2024. Capex components remain the same — servers, data centers, networking equipment — and reflect the strong demand GOOGL is seeing from both external clients & internal constituents. The outlook is well above our $62B going in & consensus of $57B. We model capex step-ups through the year, but we recognize q ...

4 February 2025 | 11:42PM EST +1(917)343-3110 | brian.k.lee@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Nick Cash +1(212)357-6372 | nick.cash@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC | PNR 12m Price Target: $104.00 | | --- | | Price: $98.26 | | Upside: 5.8% | PNR reported solid 4Q24 results, with margins and EPS exceeding expectations. While sales guidance was a slight disappointment, mostly due to the resi recovery taking longer than expected to materialize among other headwinds (e.g., FX and progressing 80/20), the company is c ...

Summary of Boston Scientific Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Boston Scientific (BSX) - **Industry**: Medical Technology - **Market Cap**: $154.214 billion - **Stock Rating**: Overweight - **Price Target**: $100.00 - **Current Price (Feb 4, 2025)**: $103.54 - **52-Week Range**: $104.25 - $64.09 [5][66] Key Financial Highlights - **Q4 Sales**: $4,561 million, 3% above Visible Alpha consensus [3][8] - **Cardiovascular Organic Growth**: +27.4%, exceeding Street expectations of +22% [3][8] - **MedSurg Revenue Growth**: +7.0%, in line with expectations [3][8] - **Cardiology Performance**: +32% organic growth, driven by FARAPULSE and WATCHMAN [3][8] - **Neuromodulation Growth**: +5.5% organic growth, a notable acceleration from previous quarters [3][8] - **2025 Guidance**: Expected organic growth of +10-12%, significantly higher than prior expectations of +9-10% [2][7] Investment Thesis - **Strong Q4 Performance**: The results reinforce the investment thesis, showcasing Boston Scientific's robust growth potential and pipeline [2][7]. - **Acquisitions Impact**: Recent acquisitions (Axonics, Silk, Relievant) are expected to contribute positively to organic growth in 2026, which may be underestimated by the market [2][7]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS) Guidance**: 2025 EPS guidance of $2.80 - $2.87 suggests a clear pathway to $3.00, aligning with bullish expectations [2][7]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - **Competitive Positioning**: The company is well-positioned in the MedTech sector, with a strong pipeline and growth potential that is not easily matched by competitors [2][7]. - **Focus on Key Products**: The narrative around FARAPULSE and WATCHMAN is strong, but the overall performance across divisions indicates a broader strength [2][7]. Risks and Considerations - **Market Underestimation**: There is a risk that the market may underestimate the organic impact of recent acquisitions and the overall growth potential of Boston Scientific [7][12]. - **Competitive Pressures**: Increased competition in core markets could pose challenges, particularly in the drug-eluting stent (DES) and cardiac rhythm management (CRM) sectors [12]. Conclusion - Boston Scientific's recent performance and guidance indicate a strong outlook for 2025, supported by robust growth across multiple divisions and strategic acquisitions. The company remains a compelling investment opportunity within the medical technology sector, with a favorable risk-reward profile.

V i e w p o i n t | 05 Feb 2025 00:00:00 ET│ 43 pages Global Consumer Citi's World of Staples – The data you need on performance, valuation and earnings momentum for global consumer staples CITI'S TAKE Global Consumer Staples under-performed the wider market by -1% last month. European Staples were +3%, while US Staples were +2%. Tobacco and Food Retail led the group (+6% and +5% respectively), Beverages remained challenging across regions falling -1% in the US and Europe. European Beverages & Tobacco: Smal ...

Technology - Semiconductors Jay Kwon AC J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research 06 February 2025 Memory Market Update Quantifying DeepSeek's impact to the Memory Market; Focus on AI ecosystem and edge-AI upside DeepSeek's R1 model release has spurred investor concerns on a faster decline in the training cost curve leading to datacenter AI hardware demand. The memory sector's18-month growth cycle was largely pinned by rising compute demand (HBM) for high-end training GPU - the sector's average share pri ...

Cloud revs decelerated back to prior trend (Q4 30% y/y vs. Q1-Q2 28-29%) after a strong 35% in Q3. But we see potential for future upside given current capacity constraints and plans for FY25 capex up 43%. Ad revs were healthy, esp. YouTube +14% y/y. But Q1 is to start slow given FX headwinds and tougher comps. Continued efficiency gains as op mgn (net) 37.9% +520bp y/y. Stock trades ~12.6x NTM EV/EBITDA vs. 12x 10-yr avg; expect to grind higher. Buy, $235 PT. Things we liked: Things we're watching: | FY (D ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **China AI ecosystem**, particularly the rise of **DeepSeek** as a significant milestone in AI development, indicating competitive capabilities with global solutions [2][10][11]. Core Insights - **DeepSeek's Development**: It is not an isolated success but part of a broader evolution within China's AI ecosystem, which has been developing over the past two years [1][11]. - **Customization Needs**: DeepSeek requires more customization and higher servicing, making it potentially less scalable outside of China’s unique enterprise landscape [3][12]. - **Shift in Focus**: The China AI ecosystem is transitioning from foundational model development to application-focused development, emphasizing open-source solutions [4][17]. - **Competitive Landscape**: The AI market in China is becoming increasingly competitive, with a rise in cottage industries replicating models at lower costs [4][19]. Winners and Losers - **Winners**: Companies that can effectively monetize through application development and avoid price wars will thrive. Key sectors include cloud providers with full-stack capabilities and enterprise software with strong subscription models [4][18]. - **Losers**: Companies that merely repackage compute resources or model developers without differentiation are expected to struggle [4][18][22]. Stock Recommendations - **Positive Outlook**: - **Kingdee**: Strong mid-enterprise platform with potential for AI monetization [5][24]. - **Kingsoft Office**: Notable for its AI monetization track record across consumer and enterprise products [5][24]. - **TCOM and TME**: Positive setup but with a focus on cost optimization and long-term EPS growth [5][24]. - **Negative Outlook**: - **Baidu**: Expected to lose market share in search and face challenges in AI cloud competitiveness [5][28]. Market Dynamics - **Monetization Challenges**: Not all applications can effectively monetize their AI capabilities due to rapid copying and consumer expectations [5][23]. - **Unique Content Advantage**: Companies with unique content or strong industry verticals are better positioned to leverage AI for differentiation [5][23]. Investment Implications - **Cloud Providers**: Favorable for those with full-stack capabilities that can support open-source development and provide value-added services [5][24]. - **Software Companies**: Subscription-based models targeting consumers and SMEs are likely to see better performance compared to traditional ERP systems [5][24]. - **Model Developers**: The competitive landscape is expected to intensify, leading to pricing pressures and potential margin squeezes for less differentiated players [5][24]. Conclusion - The China AI ecosystem is evolving rapidly, with significant implications for investment strategies. Companies that can adapt to the changing landscape and focus on application development, customization, and unique content will likely emerge as winners in this competitive environment [4][19][24].

February 5, 2025 06:22 AM GMT Multipolar World Tariffs and Trade Protectionism: Our 'One-Stop-Shop' Playbook Given the developing news flow around tariffs, we have created a consolidated, global playbook for investors that provides analyses, and stock assessments across sectors. Key Takeaways Over the weekend, President Trump and his administration imposed tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China (see fact sheet here). President Trump stated that until the crisis/extraordinary threat is alleviated, ...