Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Industrials - **Date**: December 26, 2024 Core Insights and Arguments - **Retail Spending**: Preliminary retail spending estimates for December show an increase of **0.76% MoM**, accelerating from last month's reported **0.20% MoM** [2] - **Core CPI**: The UBS Evidence Lab Nowcast expects the core CPI to stabilize with an increase of **0.20% MoM**, which is below the US Economics team's preliminary estimate of a **28 basis points** increase [2] - **Headline CPI**: The Nowcast indicates a headline CPI (seasonally adjusted) MoM increase of **0.30%**, influenced by higher energy prices, while the US Economics team's preliminary estimate for headline CPI is a **38 basis points** increase [2] - **Airfares**: There is a noted deceleration in airfares compared to the previous month, while rent CPI continues to increase MoM at a stable rate [2] Trade Dynamics - **Exports and Imports**: Both exports and imports in China are projected to have similar year-over-year growth in December [3] - **Nowcasting Methodology**: The China Nowcasting: Import and Export Value Monitor utilizes non-traditional big data, including maritime and air freight volume data, to model import and export values in USD and their YoY growth [27] Economic Indicators - **ISM Manufacturing Index**: The Nowcast projects the ISM manufacturing composite index to be at **48.0**, aligning with consensus expectations [24] - **Industrial Production**: Overall industrial production is forecasted to decrease by **220 basis points MoM** (seasonally adjusted) for December, with total industrial production YoY estimated at **-0.1%**, an improvement from last month's reported **-0.9% YoY** [24] Additional Insights - **UBS Evidence Lab**: The UBS Evidence Lab is a sell-side team that creates insight-ready datasets, which have been utilized by UBS Research analysts since 2014 to produce thousands of differentiated research reports [5] - **Data Availability**: The Nowcasting data is often available weeks before official government data releases, providing timely insights into economic conditions [27] Important but Overlooked Content - **Analyst Independence**: Analysts responsible for the report certify that their views reflect personal opinions and are prepared independently, ensuring objectivity in the analysis [30] - **Investment Risks**: The document emphasizes that investments involve risks and that past performance is not indicative of future results, urging investors to seek personalized advice [19] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, focusing on the China Industrials sector and relevant economic indicators, while also highlighting the methodologies and insights provided by UBS Evidence Lab.

27 December 2024 | 1:35PM HKT | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | Bottom line: | Chelsea Song +852-2978-0106 \| chelsea.song@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. | | China's industrial profi ...

Summary of Key Points from Goldman Sachs US Economics Analyst Report Industry Overview - The report focuses on the US economic outlook, particularly regarding government spending, corporate tax rates, trade policies, and their implications for inflation and monetary policy. Key Points Government Spending Cuts - 42% of investors expect insignificant or modest spending cuts from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) [1] - 19% anticipate cuts between $25 billion and $100 billion, while 32% expect cuts exceeding $100 billion, equating to 0.3% of GDP annually [1] Corporate Tax Rate Expectations - Approximately 60% of investors expect a decline in the statutory corporate tax rate [3] - The current expectation is that the broad statutory corporate tax rate will remain at 21%, but the rate for domestic manufacturers may be reduced to 15% [3] Trade Policy and Tariffs - Anticipated increases in tariff rates on imports from China by an average of 20 percentage points, with higher rates for non-consumer goods [7] - Nearly 60% of investors expect only increased tariffs on imports from China, while about 40% foresee a universal 10-20% tariff [8] - The average probability assigned to the implementation of a universal tariff is around 35% [12] Policy Risks - The primary concern among investors is the risks associated with tariffs, cited by 60% of respondents, followed by fiscal sustainability concerns at 20% [14] - A potential universal tariff could raise inflation to approximately 3% at its peak and reduce GDP growth by 0.75-1.25 percentage points [18] Inflation Expectations - Investors expecting a universal tariff anticipate higher inflation, with 55% expecting core PCE inflation of 2.6% or higher [18] - The report indicates that a 10% universal tariff would have a one-time effect on inflation, but the overall impact on the economy would be manageable [24] Monetary Policy Outlook - The report suggests that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may implement consecutive rate cuts through Q1 2025, with a total of two final cuts expected in June and September [23] - The market is perceived to be pricing a shallower rate cut path than what is expected by Goldman Sachs [22] Economic Growth Projections - Real GDP growth is projected to be 2.5% in 2023, with a gradual decline to 2.1% by Q4 2025 [36] - Consumer expenditures are expected to grow at a rate of 2.5% in 2023, with a slight decrease in subsequent years [36] Labor Market Insights - The unemployment rate is projected to be around 3.7% by Q4 2025, with underemployment at 7.1% [36] - Payroll growth is expected to average around 150,000 monthly [36] Conclusion - The report highlights significant investor concerns regarding tariffs and their potential impact on inflation and economic growth, while also providing a cautious outlook on monetary policy adjustments in response to these changes [14][18][22]

**Industry or Company Involved**: Not explicitly mentioned in the provided text. **Key Points and Arguments**: * **General Observations**: * The text covers a wide range of topics, including politics, sports, entertainment, technology, and social issues. * It includes various perspectives and opinions on these topics. * The text is primarily focused on current events and trends. * **Specific Points**: * **Politics**: The text discusses the incoming Trump administration, the potential impact of his policies, and the ongoing debate over immigration enforcement. * **Sports**: The text covers various sports events and issues, including the NBA's potential expansion to Mexico City and the challenges it may face. * **Entertainment**: The text discusses various entertainment topics, including reality TV, film reviews, and music. * **Technology**: The text explores the potential slowing down of AI progress and the challenges faced by companies like Telegram. * **Social Issues**: The text addresses various social issues, including the mpox epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the challenges faced by women with facial hair, and the impact of climate change. **Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content**: * **The mpox epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congo**: The text highlights the challenges faced by the country in containing the epidemic, including limited resources, bureaucracy, and stigma associated with the disease. * **The challenges faced by women with facial hair**: The text explores the societal pressures and stigma faced by women with facial hair, as well as the growing movement advocating for body positivity and self-expression. * **The potential slowing down of AI progress**: The text discusses the challenges faced by AI companies, such as a lack of data and the need for new methods of training AI systems. **Summary**: The provided text offers a snapshot of current events and trends across various industries and sectors. It highlights the complexity of the issues being discussed and the diverse perspectives held by different stakeholders.

****** THURSDAY, DECEMBER 26, 2024 ~ VOL. CCLXXXIV NO. 150 WSJ.com HHHH $5.00 Business & Finance CONTENTS Arts in Review..... A11 Business & FinanceB2,3,10 Crossword................ A12 Equities........................ B6 From Page One.... A8 Heard on Street.. B12 Markets & Finance B10 Opinion................ A13-15 Personal Journal A9-10 Sports.......................... A12 Technology................ B4 U.S. News.............. A2-4 World News......... A5-7 > s 2024 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Rese ...

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Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **Chinese materials industry**, focusing on sectors such as **steel**, **aluminum**, **copper**, and **lithium**. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Steel Production and Demand**: - Average daily crude steel output in early December 2024 was **2.024 million tons**, down **3.2%** from late November. Average daily finished steel output decreased by **10.9%** to **1.928 million tons** [13][90][92]. - The steel industry is experiencing a decline in production due to reduced demand and environmental regulations, particularly in Shandong Province where production is limited by weather conditions [38]. 2. **Aluminum and Copper Market**: - The aluminum spot price is reported at **Rmb 19,820** per ton, with a **0.7%** increase over the past month [23]. - Copper spot price stands at **Rmb 73,920** per ton, reflecting a **0.1%** increase [23]. - The market is facing tight supply chains for upstream products like compressors and copper pipes due to high demand [11]. 3. **Lithium Production**: - Ganfeng Lithium's Goulamina spodumene project has commenced production, with plans for significant capacity expansion [15][36]. - Rio Tinto is investing **$2.5 billion** to expand its Rincon lithium project in Argentina, aiming for a total capacity of **60,000 tons** of battery-grade lithium carbonate [36]. 4. **Government Policies and Economic Impact**: - The Chinese government has implemented policies to support the materials industry, including the "two new" and "two-key" policies, which have driven significant sales in the automotive and home appliance sectors [31]. - The Ministry of Commerce reported that the trade-in program has boosted consumer goods sales by over **Rmb 1 trillion** [14][32]. 5. **Market Trends and Forecasts**: - The retail size of passenger vehicles (PV) is expected to reach **2.70 million units** in February 2024, marking a **14.8%** year-over-year increase [7]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEV) is projected at **51.9%**, with retail sales expected to hit **1.4 million units** [7]. Additional Important Information - **Cement Shipments**: Weekly cement shipments in Central China are monitored, indicating trends in construction and infrastructure development [2]. - **Trade Dynamics**: There is a rush to export aluminum before the removal of rebates, indicating potential shifts in trade policies [8]. - **Environmental Regulations**: Heavy pollution warnings in Shandong have led to production cuts among coke producers, impacting the supply chain [38]. - **Tariffs and Trade Relations**: Canada plans to impose tariffs on various Chinese products, including metals, which could affect trade dynamics [40]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the Chinese materials industry.

Morgan Stanley Research 9 Keymed Biosciences Inc. (2162.HK) O (08/10/2021) HK$31.85 M Update | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|-------| | Everest Medicines Ltd (1952.HK) E (03/15/2024) HK$46.80 \nHUTCHMED (China) Ltd (0013.HK) E (04 ...

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 4Q12 4Q15 4Q18 4Q21 4Q24 Net Tightening vs. Easing Lending Standards - Auto Tightening Easing M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------|-------|--------------------|-------------------------| | | | | | | | Mortgage | Credit Card | Auto | Economic Activity | Sentiment / Conditions | Source: Dealertrack, Morgan Stanley Research. Consumer Credit Activity Tracker Source: Manheim, Morgan Stanley Research. Morgan S ...

Premier Li Qiang stresses the importance of technology innovation and pledges more access and services to foreign enterprises; The draft law on private sector promotion has submitted to top legislature for preliminary review; Alibaba officially started its operations in Morocco... See our latest research on Barclays Live. Government/Industry News • Premier Li Qiang stresses the importance of technology innovation and pledges more access and services to foreign enterprises: According to gov.cn, Premier Li Qi ...