更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha March 25, 2025 06:30 AM GMT Steel | Japan Await Improved Fundamentals Asia steel fundamentals show no real signs of improving, but falling prices for secondary materials have led to a rebound in Asian steel margins. Numerous countries have moved to impose tariffs on Chinese steel. We await demand recovery from Japan. Adjust forecasts & PTs: On our F3/25 forecasts, we revise down for JFE, due to impairment losses at overseas group firms & operational issues domestically. We ar ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call primarily discusses various investment strategies and market outlooks from Morgan Stanley Research, focusing on sectors such as US equities, European equities, M&A activity, fixed income, global autos, and data center asset-backed securities (ABS) [1][2][5][7][11][12][14][17][19]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **US Equity Strategy**: - Morgan Stanley has moved to a neutral stance on defensives versus cyclicals due to stretched valuations in defensives and awaiting clarity from labor data. Historically, defensives outperform 3-12 months after the Fed's first cut but may underperform in the month following the cut [2][4]. - The recommendation remains to favor large-cap stocks over small-cap stocks, as large-cap earnings revisions are supportive in a mid-to-late cycle environment [2][4]. 2. **Europe Equity Strategy**: - The "Soft Landing" playbook suggests that cyclicals in Europe should rebound, with a focus on rates-sensitive equities. Key sectors to overweight include software, semiconductors, and business services, while avoiding luxury and autos [5][6]. 3. **M&A Activity**: - M&A continues to lead IPOs across regions, with a notable increase in deal value by approximately 15% globally compared to the past two years. Rate cuts are expected to positively impact M&A activity, with forecasts indicating an overshoot of historical averages in 2026-27 [7][8][9]. 4. **US Fixed Income Strategy**: - Following a 50 basis point cut by the Fed, the outlook for mortgage-backed securities (MBS) has turned bullish. The team recommends an overweight position in MBS due to improving technicals and reasonable valuations compared to other high-quality fixed income products [11][12]. 5. **Global Autos**: - China has shifted from being a source of demand to a source of supply in the global auto market, accounting for 29% of global auto sales and 32% of production in 2023. This excess capacity could impact global OEMs and their strategies in other markets [12][13]. 6. **Data Center ABS**: - The market for data center ABS is projected to double to $49 billion by 2027, driven by increased power consumption and capital expenditure in AI infrastructure. The outstanding ABS issuance is expected to reach over $8 billion in 2024 [14]. 7. **Asia/EM Equity Strategy**: - The potential outcomes of the upcoming US election are viewed negatively for Asia/EM equities, particularly in China, Taiwan, and Korea, with markets already pricing in some effects [17]. 8. **Korea Economics**: - Korea is facing demographic challenges as it transitions to a "super-aged society" by 2025, which could threaten economic growth. Structural reforms are underway but will take time to yield results [19][20]. Other Important Insights - The call emphasizes the importance of stock-picking during soft landing periods, highlighting that stock-specific risks often rise in such environments [6]. - The research also notes that the performance of Asia/EM supply chain diversification beneficiaries is already being reflected in market performance, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [17]. - The demographic challenges in Korea are underscored by the government's declaration of a national emergency, with potential growth forecasts turning negative by 2040 [19][21]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into various sectors and their respective outlooks as analyzed by Morgan Stanley Research.

Key Takeaways BYD targets 5.5mn unit sales in 2025 (+29% YoY), in line with market expectations. Management sees volume upside from higher smart EV adoption, which could propel China local brands' share to expand another 5-10ppt in 2025 (from ~65-70% in 2024). BYD looks for steady net profit per unit in 2025 despite greater scale benefits and a higher mix of overseas sales, as the company will continue to prioritize volume share gain while maintaining profitability. BYD targets 800k overseas sales in 2025 ( ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha 25 March 2025 | 2:21AM EDT Americas Transportation Recession-Sensitivity Analysis; Where Could EPS/EBITDA Bottom-Out, and What is Priced In? Bottom Line: The purpose of this report is to assess the potential earnings, valuation and share price sensitivity to transports should economic conditions deteriorate and potentially move into recessionary territory - something we are not forecasting or take a view on, but given investor inquiries as to where earnings could get to shoul ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha March 25, 2025 03:50 AM GMT ANTA Sports | Asia Pacific M Update Investor Feedback on Stock Pullback Key Takeaways Market concerns: ANTA and FILA's GPM was down 1.6ppt and 3.3ppt y/y, respectively, in 2H24. ANTA's opex ratio was up 4.0ppt y/y in 2H24 while FILA's opex ratio was flat. The GPM contraction was due to 1) weak consumer demand (3Q in particular) and traffic shift to online and factory outlets, leading to more discounts, 2) exploration for new products which increase ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha Biotechnology | North America Highlights from our Recent KOL Discussion on Immunotherapy and the Treatment of RCC We hosted a KOL discussion with a medical oncologist and researcher to discuss his views on the RCC landscape. Key Takeaways On the current 1L metastatic RCC landscape, the KOL outlined his thoughts on immunotherapy doublets (IO/IO) and immunotherapy + TKI combinations (IO/ March 25, 2025 11:47 PM GMT We recently hosted a KOL webcast with the hematology/oncology l ...

The Economist Erdogan hammers Turkey China's stockmarket rally Netanyahu's hubris Signals intelligence Trump-style MARCH 29TH-APRIL 4TH 2025 100/100 JAMESSUCKLING Y It takes time to become an icon Imported by Laurent-Perrier US - www.laurent-perrier.com PLEASE ENJOY CHAMPAGNE RESPONSIBLY Nº26 The Economist March 29th 2025 THE LEASE VE the state of the station of the station of the subje Grand Siècle Laurent-Perrier Contents On the cover Is Elon Musk remaking America's government, or breaking it? Leader, pag ...

30 March 2025 | 1:02PM BST Metals Comment: China Metals/Mining Field Trip: No Steel Production Cuts Yet, Overcapacity Spreads To Alumina We recently traveled to China with a group of international investors where we visited companies in Beijing, Tangshan, Ganzhou and Shenzhen across the steel, copper, aluminium, power (thermal, renewables) and construction sectors, including visits to six private steel mills, rare earth magnet and battery (LFP) plants. The focus of our trip was the outlook for China commodi ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Industry**: Hong Kong/China Leisure & Lodging - **Key Companies**: H World Group Ltd (HTHT.O), Atour Lifestyle Holdings Ltd (ATAT.O), Jin Jiang International Hotels (600754.SS), BTG Hotels Group Co Ltd (600258.SS) Core Insights and Arguments 1. **4Q24 Results Expectations**: Slightly better than market estimates due to stronger hotel demand in late December, but guidance for 1Q25 is expected to be lower due to recent weak data [1][3] 2. **RevPAR Growth Adjustments**: - Industry RevPAR growth forecast for 1Q25 revised down from +1% YoY to -2% YoY based on recent performance [3] - Specific company adjustments include: - H World: EPS estimates down by 1-2% [3] - Atour: 1Q25 RevPAR growth assumption lowered from -2% YoY to -6% YoY [22] - Jin Jiang: 1Q25 RevPAR growth assumption lowered from -2% YoY to -5% YoY [25] 3. **4Q24 Performance Metrics**: - H World expected to report 6% YoY revenue growth, with adjusted EBITDA growth of only 1% YoY when excluding impairment losses [8] - Atour projected to show strong revenue growth driven by retail, with core net income growth of 37% YoY [8] - Jin Jiang anticipated to face revenue decline exacerbated by rising costs and RevPAR underperformance [8] - BTG expected to report a 4% YoY decline in revenue for 4Q24 [8] 4. **Operating Leverage and Margin Pressure**: High operating leverage in the hotel industry continues to pressure margins, with fixed costs growing YoY [6] 5. **Market Sentiment**: Guidance and trends for 1Q25 and 2025 will significantly influence market sentiment, with March 2025 showing disappointing results despite a low base [6] Additional Important Insights 1. **Price Target Adjustments**: - H World price target lowered from US$46.00 to US$45.00 due to reduced 1Q25 RevPAR estimates [3][21] - No changes to bull and bear case scenarios for H World [21] 2. **Earnings Preview**: - H World’s total revenue for 4Q24 expected at Rmb5,859 million, with a profit after tax of Rmb875 million [10] - Atour’s total revenue for 4Q24 expected at Rmb1,970 million, with a core net income of Rmb294 million [13] - Jin Jiang’s total revenue for 4Q24 expected at Rmb3,332 million, with a net profit of Rmb78 million [16] - BTG’s total revenue for 4Q24 expected at Rmb1,802 million, with a net profit of Rmb37 million [17] 3. **Future Projections**: - H World’s adjusted EBITDA for 2024E projected at Rmb6,288 million, with net income of Rmb3,856 million [20] - Atour’s adjusted EBITDA for 2024E projected at Rmb1,643 million, with net income of Rmb1,239 million [23] - Jin Jiang’s total revenue for 2024E projected at Rmb14,123 million, with net income of Rmb1,079 million [28] - BTG’s total revenue for 2024E projected at Rmb7,691 million, with net income of Rmb758 million [27] Conclusion The conference call highlighted a cautious outlook for the Hong Kong/China leisure and lodging industry, with several companies adjusting their revenue and profit expectations downward for 1Q25. The impact of operating leverage and rising costs continues to pressure margins, while market sentiment will be heavily influenced by upcoming guidance and performance trends.

Summary of Hunan Yuneng New Energy Battery Material (301358.SZ) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Hunan Yuneng New Energy Battery Material - **Ticker**: 301358.SZ - **Date of Report**: March 17, 2025 Key Financial Metrics - **2024 Net Profit**: Rmb594 million, down 62% YoY [1] - **4Q24 Net Income**: Rmb103 million, up 2% QoQ and 165% YoY [1] - **Unit Gross Profit (GP) for LFP Cathode**: - 2024: Rmb2,372/t, down 60% YoY [1] - 4Q24: Rmb2,122/t, up 1% QoQ and 50% YoY [1][3] - **Final Cash Dividend**: Rmb0.157/share, down from Rmb0.418/share in 2023, maintaining a 20% payout ratio [1] Sales and Production - **LFP Cathode Sales Volume**: - 2024: 711kt, up 40% YoY [2] - 4Q24: 233kt, up 40% QoQ and 67% YoY [2] - **Output Volume**: 735kt in 2024, up 46% YoY [2] - **Utilization Ratio**: 101% in 2024, compared to 90% in 2023 [2] - **High Energy Density Products Sales Volume**: - 2024: 159.3kt, 22% of total sales [2] - 4Q24: 105kt, 45% of total sales [2] Expenses and Impairments - **Impairment Loss**: Rmb117 million in 4Q24, up from Rmb8 million in 3Q24 [4] - **SG&A Expenses**: Rmb151 million in 4Q24, up 36% QoQ and 49% YoY [4] - **R&D Expenses**: Rmb85 million in 4Q24, up 12% QoQ and 30% YoY [4] Cash Flow and Gearing - **Net Gearing**: 52% in 2024, up from 24% in YE2023 [9] - **Operating Cash Flow (OCF)**: -Rmb1,042 million in 2024, compared to Rmb501 million in 2023 [9] - **Free Cash Flow (FCF)**: -Rmb3,414 million in 2024, worse than -Rmb2,188 million in 2023 [9] - **4Q24 OCF**: -Rmb796 million, compared to -Rmb499 million in 4Q23 [9] Valuation and Investment Outlook - **Target Price**: Rmb66.3, implying a 65.2% expected share price return [7][10] - **Expected Total Return**: 65.7% [7] - **Current Trading P/E**: 16.0x for 2025E [10] Risks - **High Risk Rating**: Despite a high risk rating, the company is believed to be at the trough of the cycle with an improving competitive landscape expected in 2025E [14] - **Key Downside Risks**: - Lower-than-expected LFP cathode shipments [14] - Worse-than-expected unit GP for LFP cathode [14] - Higher-than-expected expenses [14] Conclusion - Hunan Yuneng's financial performance in 2024 reflects significant challenges, particularly in profitability and cash flow. However, the company shows potential for recovery with increased sales volume and a positive outlook for unit gross profit in 2025. The investment recommendation remains a "Buy" based on expected improvements in the competitive landscape and financial metrics.