Global Commodities Research 01 July 2025 J P M O R G A N Global Commodities The Week in Commodities This is a summary note that consolidates the latest views of our global commodity strategists published over the week; to read detailed reports, refer to the hyperlinks. It also contains hyperlinks to other related research/podcasts on the global commodities market. Oil Markets Weekly: Major supply disruption risk at 21%, but deterrent lines are now well-defined Global Commodities Webinar: US Enters War with ...

V i e w p o i n t | 01 Jul 2025 23:10:31 ET │ 12 pages India Economics Likely Contours of an India-US Trade Deal CITI'S TAKE Although clarity is still limited, we outline factors to watch in a potential India-US trade deal. The pre-July 09 trade deal could act as a broad framework until a comprehensive deal before the QUAD summit (October/November). [1] For manufactured goods, it's unclear whether it would be "zero-for-zero" tariffs or the 10% baseline US tariff stays. [2] Gradual multi-year or immediate re ...

Asia Pacific Equity Research 01 July 2025 China SMid Insurance Key investor feedback post the initiation; ZhongAn remains top investor focus See page 4 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as onl ...

Google's 2025 Sustainability report discloses 27% y/y higher 2024 electricity use (+25% NA, +32% int'l), stalling gains in 24/7 carbon-free energy & surging water use as Google continues to employ evaporative cooling. Alphabet's 2025 Sustainability report suggests hyperscalers are on track for 7th consecutive year of 25%+ y/y electricity demand, even before surging AI inference demand. The report indicates that GOOG's electricity use increased 27% y/y (+25% North America, +32% int'l) in 2024 to ~32 terawatt ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The analysis focuses on seven significant global manufacturing industries in China, including air conditioners, solar modules, lithium batteries, electric vehicles, power semiconductors (IGBT), steel, and construction machinery, which collectively represent 25% of China's GDP growth in 2024 and 7% of exports [1][15][57]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Capacity Imbalance**: The state of overcapacity in China remains largely unchanged, with five out of the seven industries holding more capacity than global demand. This has led to challenging supply structures characterized by fragmentation and flattened cost curves [1][16]. - **Domestic Demand Stimulation**: A sizable stimulatory domestic demand has temporarily alleviated the capacity imbalance, particularly in electric vehicles, where pulled-forward consumption represented 16% of the domestic market [1][26][27]. - **Cyclical Risks**: The "Rule-of-Three" framework indicates a delayed trough inflection and negative cyclical risks ahead, primarily dependent on the pace of demand stimulation exhaustion [2][31]. - **Sector-Specific Insights**: - **Solar**: Currently at a cyclical bottom, closest to an inflection point, but negative demand outlook suggests inflection is not imminent [3][32]. - **Electric Vehicles**: Weakest profit profile and steepest cost curve, requiring consolidation during the downcycle [3][32]. - **Top Producers**: In sectors like air conditioners, lithium batteries, and construction machinery, the relative cost position of top producers remains strong compared to others [3][32]. Additional Important Content - **Capacity Utilization**: Average capacity utilization across the seven sectors is projected to be 63% in 2025, which is 4-5% higher than previous estimates. However, a decline of 3-6% is expected by 2026-28 due to supply-demand imbalances [23][24]. - **Capex Trends**: Significant cuts in capital expenditures (capex) have been observed, particularly in the solar industry (45-52% cuts for 2025-2026) and power semiconductors (30% cuts). In contrast, lithium batteries and electric vehicles have seen mild upward revisions in capex [45][49]. - **Global Supply Position**: China maintains a dominant position in global supply, accounting for 86% of solar modules, 80% of lithium batteries, and 74% of air conditioners as of 2024. However, the expansion of ex-China capacity may lead to redundant supply risks [57][58]. Conclusion - The overall outlook indicates that while temporary demand stimulation has provided some relief, the underlying issues of overcapacity and fragmented supply structures persist. The cyclical risks remain negative, and the path to long-term consolidation is complicated by the current market dynamics and the need for further capacity exits [16][31][32].

Summary of Planet Labs (PL) Update / Briefing July 01, 2025 Company Overview - **Company**: Planet Labs (PL) - **Industry**: Geospatial services and satellite imaging Key Points Industry Dynamics - The global geopolitical landscape is increasing demand for sovereign access to geospatial services, with governments recognizing the importance of timely and comprehensive earth data for security and strategic decision-making [4][19] - There is a growing need for advanced analytics to support peace and security efforts globally [4][19] Contract Wins and Partnerships - Planet Labs announced a significant contract with the German government valued at EUR 240 million, aimed at enhancing European peace and security through dedicated satellite services [5][17] - This contract includes access to PlanetScope and high-resolution data, along with AI-enabled solutions for improved situational awareness [5][6] - The company has secured four major awards since the last earnings call, including expansions with the U.S. Department of Defense and the U.S. Navy [11][12] - Planet's partnerships with Japan and Germany highlight its long-standing relationships and trust built over more than ten years [6][33] Product Offerings - Planet's solutions include Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA) and Global Monitoring Service (GMS), which provide critical intelligence and situational awareness for defense and intelligence customers [13][15] - MDA is rapidly adopted for its ability to monitor vast ocean areas daily, while GMS offers comprehensive insights into strategic locations worldwide [13][15] AI Integration - The integration of AI with Planet's daily scan capabilities is transforming the analysis of geospatial data, enabling proactive vigilance and anomaly detection at an unprecedented scale [12][37] - AI is expected to democratize access to geospatial capabilities, enhancing the value derived from satellite data [38][39] Financial Outlook - All five contracts discussed are expected to generate annual contract values in the eight figures, with two contracts reaching nine-figure scales [17][18] - The company is focused on delivering exceptional value and systematically expanding its market presence [17][18] Manufacturing and Capacity - Planet Labs is building satellites in-house, leveraging its expertise in scaling satellite production to meet customer demands [21][22] - The company has launched over 600 satellites to date, positioning itself uniquely to fulfill large-scale contracts [22][33] Future Growth and Strategy - Planet aims to expand its footprint with existing customers while exploring new opportunities with other government clients [34][35] - The company is well-positioned to support European countries as they enhance their defense capabilities in response to geopolitical pressures [32][33] Collaboration and Innovation - Planet is collaborating with Anthropic to fine-tune AI models using satellite data, enhancing the accuracy and scalability of satellite image analysis [46][49] - The partnership aims to protect proprietary image archives while leveraging AI to unlock new capabilities [49][50] Conclusion - Planet Labs is strategically positioned to meet the increasing demand for geospatial services amid a changing geopolitical landscape, with a strong focus on AI integration and expanding its customer base [52][53]

Greif Inc. Containerboard Divestment Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Greif Inc. (GEF) - **Event**: Containerboard Divestment Conference Call - **Date**: July 01, 2025 Key Points Industry and Company Focus - **Divestment Announcement**: Greif announced the divestment of its containerboard business for **$1.8 billion** [4] - **Strategic Rationale**: The divestment aligns with Greif's "build to last" strategy, aimed at enhancing capital efficiency and focusing on high-margin packaging solutions [4][6] - **Remaining Portfolio**: Post-divestment, Greif will concentrate on its URB (Unbleached Recycled Board) business and polymer-based solutions, which are expected to grow faster than GDP [8][9] Financial Implications - **EBITDA and Cash Flow Goals**: Greif aims to achieve **$1 billion** in EBITDA and **$500 million** in free cash flow by 2027 [5] - **Debt Reduction**: 100% of the proceeds from the divestment will be used to pay down debt, positioning Greif with a leverage ratio below **2.0 times** [5][10] - **Cost Savings**: The divestment is expected to lower annual interest expenses by **$85 million** and recurring maintenance capital expenditures by **$25 million** [11] Market Position and Strategy - **Focus on Leadership**: Greif aims to maintain a number one or two position in its chosen markets, emphasizing that it was not a leader in the containerboard market [22][23] - **Growth Areas**: The company is targeting growth in high-margin sectors such as food and beverage, pharmaceuticals, and agrochemicals [9][12] - **Capital Allocation**: Greif will continue to prioritize safety and maintenance CapEx while also increasing shareholder returns through dividends and share repurchases [11][12] Future Outlook - **Growth Opportunities**: Greif is committed to pursuing high-return organic capital expenditures and strategic M&A opportunities within its targeted growth areas [12][41] - **EBITDA Growth Drivers**: The company has identified several drivers to achieve its EBITDA target, including volume growth and business optimization [13][14] - **Market Trends**: North America remains sluggish, particularly in metal markets, but acquired companies in the agricultural space are performing well [90][91] Additional Considerations - **Regulatory Approvals**: The transaction is subject to customary conditions, including regulatory approvals, which may affect the closing timeline [6] - **Synergies and Cost Structure**: Greif will work on optimizing support functions and addressing overhead costs post-divestment [37][65] - **Market Dynamics**: The company expects to be a net seller in the open market for OCC (Old Corrugated Containers) after the divestment, which may impact its business dynamics [61] Conclusion - Greif's divestment of its containerboard business marks a significant strategic shift aimed at enhancing shareholder value and focusing on high-growth, high-margin opportunities. The company is committed to maintaining financial discipline while pursuing growth in its remaining business segments.

Summary of Atai Life Sciences (ATAI) Update / Briefing July 01, 2025 Company Overview - **Company**: Atai Life Sciences - **Focus**: Development of psychedelic therapies for mental health, specifically targeting treatment-resistant depression with the drug BPL-three Key Industry Insights - **Market Context**: Treatment-resistant depression is a significant public health issue, affecting millions globally and is the second leading cause of disability worldwide [12][12] - **Competitor Analysis**: SPRAVATO, a leading treatment in this space, achieved blockbuster status with approximately $930 million in sales in the U.S. in the previous year [47][47] Core Findings from Phase 2B Trial of BPL-three - **Trial Success**: The Phase 2b trial of BPL-three exceeded expectations, meeting both primary and secondary endpoints, demonstrating rapid and durable antidepressant effects [6][6][10][10] - **Efficacy**: - Significant reductions in MADRS scores were observed with both 8 mg and 12 mg doses compared to the active comparator (0.3 mg) [7][7] - The drug showed a robust effect lasting at least two months post-administration [42][42] - Approximately one-third of subjects were responders by day eight, maintaining this response through day 57 [27][27] - **Safety Profile**: - The drug was well tolerated, with 99% of adverse events being mild or moderate, and no serious drug-related adverse events reported [8][8][32][32] - No suicide-related safety signals were detected, which is critical given the population studied [36][36] Dosing and Administration Insights - **Dosing Strategy**: The 8 mg dose was identified as potentially optimal, showing comparable efficacy to the 12 mg dose with fewer side effects [25][25][30][30] - **Administration Time**: The treatment requires a short in-clinic time of approximately two hours, allowing for rapid discharge post-treatment, which aligns with the interventional psychiatry model [10][10][34][34] Future Development Plans - **Phase 3 Readiness**: The company is preparing to advance BPL-three into Phase 3 trials, with an end-of-phase 2 meeting with the FDA anticipated in Q3 2025 [45][45] - **Redosing Strategy**: Future studies will explore a potential redosing paradigm, likely within a two to three-month window, which would significantly improve treatment convenience compared to SPRAVATO [68][68] Competitive Advantages - **Unique Positioning**: Atai Life Sciences is positioned uniquely with BPL-three and VLS-one, both designed for a two-hour treatment paradigm, contrasting with competitors requiring multiple doses over extended periods [51][51][52][52] - **Commercial Scalability**: The single administration model with a two-hour follow-up is expected to enhance commercial scalability and patient convenience [51][51] Upcoming Milestones - **Data Releases**: Additional data from ongoing studies, including an open-label extension study, are expected in the near future, which will further inform the efficacy and safety profile of BPL-three [44][44] - **Regulatory Engagement**: The company plans to engage with regulatory bodies regarding potential breakthrough designations and the national review voucher program for expedited approval processes [117][117] Conclusion - **Overall Assessment**: The Phase 2b trial results for BPL-three indicate a promising new treatment option for patients with treatment-resistant depression, with a favorable safety profile and significant efficacy, setting the stage for further development and potential market entry [62][62]

Protagonist Therapeutics (PTGX) Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Protagonist Therapeutics (PTGX) - **Date of Call**: June 30, 2025 - **Key Speakers**: - Dr. Dinesh Patel, President and CEO - Dr. Newman Yielding, Chief Scientific Officer - Asif Ali, CFO - Dr. Sam Sachs, Clinical Development Advisor - Dr. Kirk Waze, Clinical Advisor on obesity program Core Industry and Product Focus - **Industry**: Biotechnology, specifically focusing on obesity treatment - **Product**: PN-477, a novel triple receptor agonist for obesity treatment targeting GLP, GIP, and GCG receptors Key Points and Arguments 1. **Product Development**: PN-477 is a triple agonist with high potency against GLP, GIP, and GCG receptors, designed for both oral and subcutaneous administration [6][10][29] 2. **Obesity Epidemic**: Nearly 75% of the U.S. population is overweight or obese, with 40% qualifying as obese (BMI ≥ 30). Current injectable treatments only reach about 2% of eligible patients, indicating significant unmet needs [7][8] 3. **Market Opportunity**: The current market is dominated by injectable drugs (semaglutide and tirzepatide), which have limitations in accessibility and patient compliance. An oral option is highly desirable [8][9] 4. **Clinical Development Strategy**: Protagonist plans to develop both oral and subcutaneous formulations of PN-477 to maximize treatment options for patients and healthcare providers [11][32] 5. **Preclinical Data**: PN-477 demonstrated up to 50% weight loss in diet-induced obesity (DIO) mouse models, showing superior efficacy compared to existing treatments [18][30] 6. **Pharmacokinetics**: Oral dosing in monkeys resulted in sustained weight loss of up to 11% even after treatment cessation, indicating potential for long-term efficacy [24][25] 7. **Safety Profile**: The design of PN-477 aims to minimize gastrointestinal tolerability issues, which are common with current obesity treatments [10][68] 8. **Market Positioning**: PN-477 is positioned as a best-in-class agent with the flexibility of both oral and injectable forms, catering to diverse patient preferences [32][79] Additional Important Insights 1. **Long Half-Life**: Anticipated longer half-lives in humans based on preclinical data suggest potential for less frequent dosing, which could improve patient adherence [35][38] 2. **Bioavailability**: The focus is on achieving effective bioavailability for chronic therapy, with confidence in the oral formulation based on preclinical results [40][41] 3. **Regulatory Pathway**: Protagonist is preparing for IND enabling studies and aims to initiate clinical trials in the following year [31][32] 4. **Market Competition**: PN-477 is expected to compete with existing therapies like tirzepatide and retatrutide, with a focus on providing a more convenient and effective treatment option [75][78] Conclusion Protagonist Therapeutics is advancing its obesity treatment candidate PN-477, which offers a promising alternative to current injectable therapies. The dual formulation strategy, combined with strong preclinical data and a focus on patient compliance, positions the company well in the growing obesity treatment market. The upcoming clinical trials will be crucial in validating the efficacy and safety of PN-477.

Summary of Arcturus Therapeutics KOL Presentation on ARCT-810 Phase II Interim Data for OTC Deficiency Company Overview - **Company**: Arcturus Therapeutics - **Headquarters**: San Diego - **Focus**: mRNA medicines, specifically targeting rare liver diseases like ornithine transcarbamylase (OTC) deficiency [5][6] Industry Context - **Industry**: Biotechnology, specifically in the development of mRNA therapeutics for rare diseases - **Condition**: OTC deficiency is the most common urea cycle disorder with significant unmet medical needs [6][7] Key Points from the Presentation 1. **ARCT-810 Overview**: - ARCT-810 is an mRNA therapeutic designed to replace dysfunctional OTC enzymes, improving urea cycle activity, detoxifying ammonia, and potentially eliminating the need for liver transplants [6][7][8] - It utilizes Arcturus' proprietary lunar delivery platform for effective delivery to hepatocytes [7] 2. **Regulatory Designations**: - ARCT-810 has received multiple designations: orphan drug designation, orphan medicinal product designation, fast track designation, and rare pediatric disease designation [8] 3. **Phase II Study Design**: - Two Phase II studies were conducted: one in the US and one in Europe, focusing on safety, tolerability, and biomarker assessments [11][12] - The US study enrolled patients with more severe disease, while the European study included patients with stable disease [12] 4. **Biomarker Results**: - **Plasma Glutamine**: - In the European study, mean glutamine levels decreased from high to normal during treatment and began to rise again after four weeks post-treatment [13][14] - In the US study, glutamine levels normalized after three doses and remained normal for approximately twenty days [14] - **Ureagenesis Function**: - The new N15 assay showed significant increases in relative ureagenesis function (RUF) post-treatment, with a mean increase of 14.7% [16][17] - Two subjects achieved RUF levels above 50%, indicating clinically meaningful improvements [17] - **Ammonia Levels**: - Ammonia levels remained stable and within normal ranges after treatment, supporting the favorable glutamine and ureagenesis data [18] 5. **Safety Profile**: - The safety database included 40 participants, indicating that ARCT-810 was generally safe and well-tolerated [19] - No serious infusion-related reactions were reported, and adverse events were manageable [19][20] 6. **Next Steps**: - Arcturus plans to complete the ongoing Phase II US study and engage with regulatory agencies for a multi-biomarker driven pivotal trial [68][69] Additional Insights - **Clinical Implications**: - The KOLs emphasized the importance of normalizing diet and reducing the need for ammonia scavengers as key success metrics for OTC therapies [78][80] - mRNA therapies are viewed as a potential alternative to liver transplants, especially for severe cases [100][101] - **Comparison with Other Therapies**: - ARCT-810 is positioned as a more effective solution compared to existing ammonia scavengers, which do not restore urea cycle function [87][88] Conclusion - The interim data for ARCT-810 demonstrates promising results in reducing glutamine levels and improving urea cycle function, with a favorable safety profile. The company is poised to advance its clinical development and regulatory strategy to address the significant unmet needs in OTC deficiency treatment [67][68]