Tingting Ge (852) 2800-0143 tingting.ge@jpmorgan.com Asia Pacific Economic Research Haibin Zhu (852) 2800-7039 haibin.zhu@jpmorgan.com JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Hong Kong Branch Grace Ng (852) 2800-7002 grace.h.ng@jpmorgan.com 13 October 2024 J P M O R G A N Greater China • China: NDRC did not provide further stimulus details, all eyes on the Saturday MOF press conference • FX reserves a touch above expectation, two-sided risks around 7 for USD/CNY • Taiwan: September exports moderated, partly paying back ...

Key Points Industry/Company - **Company**: Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:ADBE) - **Event**: Adobe MAX 2024 Investor Q&A with Company Leadership - **Date**: October 14, 2024 Core Points and Arguments - **AI Innovation**: Adobe has made significant strides in AI, focusing on data, models, and interfaces. They have integrated AI into various products, including Firefly, Acrobat, and GenStudio. - **Monetization**: Adobe is monetizing AI through subscriptions, add-on offerings, Digital Experience solutions, and new AI-first standalone offerings like Firefly services and custom models. - **Revenue Growth**: Adobe exceeded its fiscal 2024 targets and is confident in delivering another strong quarter. - **MAX Event**: Adobe MAX 2024 showcased the company's commitment to innovation and collaboration, with over 10,000 attendees and 200 sessions. - **Digital Experience**: Adobe Experience Cloud and Creative Cloud are uniquely positioned to bring together content, data, and journeys to deliver personalized experiences at scale. - **GenStudio**: GenStudio for performance marketing is a key initiative that connects the Creative Cloud and Experience Cloud, enabling brands to create and measure the impact of their content. Other Important Points - **ARR Reporting**: Adobe will report ending ARR on an annual basis to provide better visibility into the true underlying longer-term trajectory of the business. - **Product Integrations**: Adobe is integrating AI capabilities throughout its suite of product offerings, leveraging its large user base and cross-product surfaces. - **Go-to-Market Strategy**: Adobe has a diverse and geographically distributed go-to-market strategy, focusing on web and mobile, small businesses, and large enterprises. - **Firefly Video**: Firefly Video is monetized through a subscription model, similar to Acrobat, due to its specialized nature and cost. - **Express**: Adobe Express is gaining traction among solopreneurs, small businesses, education, and enterprises, with partnerships with Box and Wix. References - [1] - [2] - [3] - [4] - [5] - [6] - [7] - [8] - [9] - [10] - [11] - [12] - [13] - [14] - [15] - [16] - [17] - [18] - [19] - [20] - [21] - [22] - [23] - [24] - [25] - [26] - [27] - [28] - [29] - [30] - [31] - [32] - [33] - [34] - [35] - [36] - [37] - [38] - [39] - [40] - [41] - [42] - [43] - [44] - [45] - [46] - [47] - [48] - [49] - [50] - [51] - [52] - [53] - [54] - [55] - [56] - [57] - [58] - [59] - [60] - [61] - [62] - [63] - [64] - [65] - [66] - [67] - [68] - [69] - [70] - [71] - [72] - [73] - [74] - [75] - [76] - [77] - [78] - [79] - [80] - [81] - [82] - [83] - [84] - [85] - [86] - [87] - [88] - [89] - [90] - [91] - [92] - [93] - [94] - [95] - [96] - [97] - [98] - [99] - [100] - [101] - [102] - [103] - [104] - [105] - [106] - [107] - [108] - [109]

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Global Markets Research Asia Insights 9 October 2024 Economics - Asia ex-Japan China: What's next (II)? While the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) press conference on 8 October seemingly disappointed markets, market should know that it is not within the NDRC's mandate to make fiscal stimulus announcements. The corrections in stock markets may not be a bad thing as, in our view, preventing a stock mania and crash is a precondition to successfully jumpstart China's economy. We firmly expect B ...

Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company (NYSE:HPE) HPE AI Day Executive Session October 10, 2024 1:45 PM ET Company Participants Paul Glaser - Head of Investor Relations Antonio Neri - President & CEO Fidelma Russo - EVP & General Manager, Hybrid Cloud & CTO Neil MacDonald - EVP and GM, Server Shannon Cross - Chief Strategy Officer Conference Call Participants Timothy Long - Barclays Bank Aaron Rakers - Wells Fargo Asiya Merchant - Citigroup Mehdi Hosseini - Susquehanna Meta Marshall - Morgan Stanley Daniel Zhu ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the UK political landscape, focusing on the Labour Party's proposed budget and employment rights legislation. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Tax Increases Required**: The Labour Party's budget will necessitate tax increases of £25 billion annually to fulfill its promises, even with potential changes to debt rules [2] 2. **Challenges in Tax Policy**: The Labour manifesto excludes raising income tax, national insurance contributions, and VAT, complicating the search for the required tax increases [2] 3. **Public Services Funding**: The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) indicates that to align public service spending with national income, an additional £16 billion in tax increases is needed beyond the £9 billion already outlined [2] 4. **Employment Rights Legislation**: A new Fair Work Agency will be established to enforce enhanced worker rights, including protections against unfair dismissal and exploitative contracts [3][9] 5. **Seismic Shift in Worker Rights**: The Deputy Prime Minister described the employment rights bill as the most significant overhaul in generations, aiming to improve job security and pay for millions of workers [9][10] 6. **Implementation Timeline**: The new rights are expected to take effect by autumn 2026, following consultations [9] 7. **Impact on Small Businesses**: Small businesses have expressed concerns that the rapid implementation of new rights could be chaotic and detrimental to growth [10] 8. **Zero-Hours Contracts**: The bill will end zero-hours contracts unless specifically requested by employees, providing more job security [10] 9. **Sick Pay and Parental Leave**: Employees will gain rights to sick pay from day one of illness and expanded parental leave rights, including paternity leave [11] 10. **Consultation with Businesses**: The government emphasizes that the new laws will involve extensive consultations with businesses to address their concerns [10] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Political Dynamics**: The Labour Party's leadership is under pressure to maintain its manifesto commitments while addressing the financial realities of governance [2] 2. **Public Reaction to Changes**: The public's response to the new paper containers for Quality Street chocolates, aimed at reducing plastic waste, reflects broader consumer sentiment towards sustainability [14] 3. **Climate Change and Natural Disasters**: The ongoing impact of climate change is highlighted through the analysis of recent hurricanes, emphasizing the need for urgent action and preparedness [16][19] 4. **Emergency Management Funding**: The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is facing funding challenges due to the increasing frequency and severity of disasters, necessitating Congressional action [19][20] This summary encapsulates the critical discussions and implications surrounding the Labour Party's budget proposals and the new employment rights legislation, alongside broader socio-economic and environmental issues.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the U.S. economy, fiscal policies, and implications for various sectors, including consumer goods and technology. Core Points and Arguments 1. **U.S. Budget Deficit**: The U.S. budget deficit reached $1.8 trillion for the latest fiscal year, driven by increased spending on interest and entitlement programs, highlighting a persistent gap between federal outlays and tax collections [2][5][19]. 2. **Interest Spending**: Interest costs surged by 34% from the previous year, totaling $950 billion, surpassing military spending for the first time [19][20]. 3. **Revenue Growth**: Federal revenue increased by 11%, influenced by tax payments pushed from fiscal 2023 to 2024 due to disasters in California and IRS delays in tax credits [19][20]. 4. **Political Responses**: Both major political parties are proposing different fiscal strategies, with Democrats focusing on tax increases for the wealthy and corporations, while Republicans emphasize spending cuts and tax reductions [19][20]. 5. **Economic Outlook**: The current fiscal situation is deemed risky, with projections indicating continued deficits and rising national debt, despite low unemployment and solid economic growth [19][20]. 6. **Impact of Inflation**: The Biden administration's spending policies are criticized for contributing to inflation, with calls for more sustainable fiscal practices [19][20]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Consumer Goods Sector**: Companies like PepsiCo are adjusting their guidance due to declining sales attributed to weak consumer demand and geopolitical tensions [1]. 2. **Technology Sector**: The AI sector is highlighted with the Nobel Prize awarded to pioneers in machine learning, emphasizing the growing importance of AI technologies in various industries [24]. 3. **Geopolitical Tensions**: Ongoing geopolitical issues, such as tensions in the Middle East, are influencing market dynamics and consumer behavior [1][19]. 4. **Corporate Strategies**: Honeywell's plan to spin off its advanced materials division, potentially valued over $10 billion, indicates a trend of companies restructuring for better focus and growth [1]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, reflecting on the economic landscape, corporate strategies, and the implications of fiscal policies on various sectors.

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Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **automotive industry**, focusing on various regions including **North America**, **China**, **Japan**, and **India**. [2][3][4] Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Oversupply and Demand Dynamics**: - There is a noted **oversupply** in the automotive market, with **slowing demand** and **rising inventory** posing downside risks to future production, pricing, and product mix. [2][3] - The expectation is that autos may need to become "more expensive" before they are considered investable again. [2][3] 2. **Cautious Outlook for 2025**: - Analysts suggest that expectations for 2025 may need to be reset, with a more cautious tone anticipated regarding **China**, **competition**, and **consumer behavior**. [2][3] 3. **Regional Performance**: - **China**: Mercedes and BMW are providing additional rebates to dealers for Q1-Q3 2024, indicating a push for year-end volume. [3] - **North America**: The automotive sector is viewed as **In-Line**, with specific stocks like **Tesla**, **Mercedes-Benz**, and **Honda** being highlighted as preferred investments. [3] - **India**: The automotive market is considered **Attractive**, with low-single-digit growth estimates for FY25. [3] 4. **Sales Forecasts**: - Global light vehicle sales forecasts show a decline in several regions, with **China** expected to see a decrease from **22.8 million** in 2018 to **21.6 million** in 2025. [4] - **North America** is projected to have light vehicle sales of **15.6 million** in 2023, with a slight increase to **16.2 million** by 2025. [4] 5. **Stock Rankings**: - In North America, **Tesla** is ranked first with an estimated EPS of **1.91** for 2024, while **Ford Motor** is rated as **Equal Weight** with an EPS of **1.84**. [6] - In Japan, **Honda Motor** is rated **Overweight** with an EPS of **228.04** for 2024. [7] - In India, **Maruti Suzuki** is rated **Overweight** with an EPS of **499.09** for 2024. [12] Additional Important Insights - **Geopolitical Risks**: Concerns over geopolitical risks, price wars, and EV adoption persist, but recent stimulus measures in China have shifted the narrative towards potential recovery. [2][3] - **Electric Vehicle (EV) Sales**: The global EV sales are projected to grow significantly, with a forecasted increase from **10.1 million** in 2023 to **12.7 million** in 2024. [4] - **Market Sentiment**: There is a growing anxiety among investors regarding autonomous ride-share services, particularly concerning companies like **Tesla** and **Uber**. [2] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the automotive industry's current state and future outlook across various regions.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **Consumer Staples** sector in **Europe**, particularly analyzing the **Commodity Cost Tracker** for September 2024 [1][1]. Core Insights and Arguments - The **Morgan Stanley Consumer Staples Commodity Cost Index** increased by **9.2% year-over-year** in September 2024, slightly down from **9.7%** in August 2024 [1][1]. - The index remained broadly flat month-over-month, with price increases in **US natural gas, coffee, and sugar** offset by a moderation in **cocoa** prices [1][1]. - Excluding chocolate companies, the Staples Commodity Cost Index rose by **3% year-over-year** and **1% month-over-month** [1][1]. - Key commodity price changes included: - **Coffee robusta**: +96% - **Cocoa**: +77% - **Palm kernel oil**: +62% - **Eggs**: +52% - **Coffee Arabica**: +51% - On a month-over-month basis, significant price increases were noted for: - **US Energy and natural gas**: +14% - **Coffee robusta and sugar**: +13% - **Ethylene**: +9% - **Palm kernel oil**: +7% - **Tea**: +7% - Price declines were observed in: - **Oil**: -8% - **European natural gas and propylene**: -6% - **Cocoa**: -5% [1][1]. Cost Outlook - The cost outlook for the **Staples sector** in 2025 is expected to be benign, except for chocolate producers, with a projected **-2% decline** in input cost pressures in 2024 and a slight increase of **+1%** in 2025, excluding chocolate companies [1][1]. - For chocolate producers, cost pressures are expected to remain elevated due to high cocoa prices, with a forecast of **+DD% headwinds** next year [1][1]. - The cost tracker estimates indicate declines in input cost pressures for: - **Brewers**: -4.5% - **Food (excluding chocolate)**: -3.5% - **Household & Personal Care (HPC)**: -3% in 2024 [1][1]. - In 2025, spirits and brewers are expected to benefit from declining input costs, with estimates of **-2%** for spirits and **-1%** for brewers [1][1]. Additional Insights - The **2025 hedged inflation outlook** for food producers has worsened by **-100 basis points** on average, including chocolate producers [2][2]. - The overall index is approximately **40-45%** above the pre-COVID averages from 1, 5, and 10 years ago [1][1]. - The analysis includes a theoretical impact on margins from changes in commodity prices, ignoring FX effects, pricing, cost savings, or mix benefits [5][5]. Conclusion - The Consumer Staples sector in Europe is experiencing significant commodity price fluctuations, with a mixed outlook for cost pressures across different sub-sectors. The chocolate segment remains a concern due to elevated cocoa prices, while other areas like brewers and food producers (excluding chocolate) are positioned for recovery in 2024.