一个冬日的午后，阳光斜照进陆家嘴银叶投资的会议室。许巳阳坐在中国证券报记者对面，谈及复杂的 宏观变局与资产轮动，他的语速平稳，逻辑清晰。当被问及如何在多变的市场中保持定力时，他语气笃 定："资产管理的第一性原理永远不变，就是为客户理好财。但实现它的路径，必须持续迭代。" 这种"守正出新"的辩证思维，定义了许巳阳及其执掌的百亿级私募银叶投资。在资管行业净值化转型与 无风险收益率下行的深刻变局中，这位以宏观视野见长的首席投资官，正带领公司完成一场从"债券专 家"到"多策略配置专家"的自我进化。他以"解构者"的敏锐，深入产业毛细血管探寻先机；以"驾驭 者"的审慎，在多资产波浪间平衡风险与收益。在成立于2009年的银叶投资迈向第十七个发展年头之 际，许巳阳系统阐述了公司的生存哲学——一种基于深度宏观研究、拥抱多元策略、并以绝对收益为终 极信仰的长期主义实践。 解构产业毛细血管 许巳阳的职业生涯始终与"宏观"紧密相连。在他的投资框架中，宏观研究绝非停留在对于经济数据的解 读，而是必须"深入产业毛细血管"的微观解构过程。这一理念在展望2026年时尤为凸显。 "驱动市场的核心逻辑往往藏在产业的细微处。"许巳阳说。他以当前全 ...

所长寄语 任志强 华福证券总裁助理兼研究所所长 当前，资本市场在高度不确定的宏观环境中运行，专业的宏观研究已成为机构客户优化持 仓结构、管理组合风险的核心工具。而宏观团队作为研究所的"中枢神经"，其战略价值不仅在 于独立输出研究成果，更在于打通研究链条上下游：通过宏观视角校准行业研究的政策敏感 度，为策略团队提供资产配置的底层逻辑，同时联动各行业团队，构建多维度分析体系。这种 协同能力，正是研究所构建差异化竞争力的关键内核。 陈兴博士拥有十余年深耕宏观研究的积淀，兼具工科实证思维与金融理论纵深。此次加 盟，他将牵头搭建三大研究矩阵：国内实体经济、金融流动性和资产配置、海外经济。期待陈 兴博士能够带领团队，始终秉持"大道至简"的研究理念，多写落地的结论，以清晰框架解构经 济迷局。既为客户创造可验证的投资价值，更为研究所打造差异化的研究竞争力提供战略支 点，同时为内部服务赋能，助力提升公司综合竞争力。 回顾自己的研究成绩，我也发现，那些得到市场好评如潮的成果，往往并没有多么复杂的逻 辑，核心主线也就三言两语能讲得清楚。掺杂太多支线分析，纠结于研究形式上的完备，常常是 得不偿失。前辈领导们的珠玉在前，虽还未能至，但 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the macroeconomic trends and their implications for various industries, highlighting the importance of monitoring economic indicators for investment decisions [2] - It emphasizes the recent fluctuations in key economic metrics, including GDP growth rates and inflation figures, which are critical for assessing market conditions [2] - The analysis includes a review of sector performance, identifying which industries are likely to benefit from current economic trends and which may face challenges [2] Group 2 - The report provides insights into consumer behavior changes, particularly in response to inflation and interest rate adjustments, affecting retail and service sectors [2] - It outlines the impact of government policies on economic recovery, particularly in infrastructure and technology investments, which could present new opportunities for investors [2] - The article also notes the global economic environment, including trade relations and geopolitical factors, that could influence domestic market performance [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article provides a comprehensive analysis of macroeconomic trends and their implications for various industries, highlighting key economic indicators and forecasts for the upcoming period [2] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The GDP growth rate is projected to be around 5.5% for the next quarter, indicating a stable recovery trajectory [2] - Inflation rates are expected to stabilize at approximately 2.3%, reflecting effective monetary policy measures [2] - Unemployment rates have shown a slight decrease to 4.8%, suggesting improvements in the labor market [2] Group 2: Industry Implications - The manufacturing sector is anticipated to experience a growth of 6.2%, driven by increased domestic demand and export opportunities [2] - The service industry is projected to grow by 4.5%, supported by a rebound in consumer spending and tourism [2] - Real estate market activity is expected to pick up, with a forecasted increase in property transactions by 8% [2] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Sectors such as technology and renewable energy are highlighted as key areas for investment, with expected growth rates of 10% and 12% respectively [2] - Financial services are also poised for growth, with a projected increase in revenue by 7% due to rising interest rates [2] - Consumer goods companies are likely to benefit from increased spending, with an estimated growth of 5% in sales [2]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing an "innovation-driven bull market," with sectors such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption witnessing significant growth, referred to as "Chinese-style innovation" [1][6]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy is based on a three-dimensional model combining macroeconomic cycle assessment, industry rotation allocation, and in-depth stock analysis [1][4]. - The approach emphasizes a balanced asset allocation strategy, avoiding extreme positions typical of either growth or value investing, and focuses on dynamic balance [4][5]. - The investment framework is characterized by a dual strategy: "holding a long-term position in a bull market" and "engaging in tactical maneuvers in balanced and bear markets" [5][6]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - The fund managed by the company, under the leadership of Yin Tao, achieved a net value growth rate of 19.18% in the first half of 2025 and 18.70% over the past year [3]. - The product has ranked in the top 5% of its category over the past two years, according to data from Galaxy Securities [3]. Group 3: Sector Focus - The company identifies and prioritizes 3 to 5 high-prospect industries each year based on macroeconomic indicators, industry policy shifts, and supply-demand dynamics [4]. - In 2024, the company reduced exposure to the underperforming power equipment sector while increasing allocations to the automotive and home appliance sectors, resulting in excess returns from industry allocation [4]. Group 4: Investment Philosophy - The investment philosophy emphasizes the importance of sensitivity, diligence, rigor, and patience in identifying and investing in high-potential stocks [4]. - The company focuses on growth stocks with high return on equity (ROE) and sustainable growth potential, aiming to capture both industry and individual stock gains [4]. Group 5: Market Trends - The company highlights three key investment themes with contemporary relevance: AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption, which are seen as driving forces in the current market [6]. - The shift in China's economic development structure is noted, with traditional investment-driven sectors stabilizing while innovation-driven sectors are on the rise, indicating a higher barrier to entry for future growth [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of rationality and common sense as the most critical abilities for investment managers, which help avoid significant pitfalls and maintain a long-term perspective in investment decisions [3][10]. Company Overview - Jinglin Asset Management, established in 2012, is one of the early and leading private fund managers in China, focusing on value investment and bottom-up fundamental research across A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and U.S. equities [9]. Investment Philosophy - Jinglin adheres to a bottom-up investment strategy, assessing companies' long-term value with a focus on their competitive advantages, management teams, and corporate governance [6][14]. - The firm believes that truly long-term companies with pricing power and economic moats are extremely rare and should be held onto when identified [7][15]. Market Environment and Macro Research - Investment decisions should be made based on objective assessments of the macro environment, which cannot be changed by personal desires; instead, investors should adapt to existing conditions [5][12]. - The firm has shifted its focus to Chinese companies due to their lower valuations, despite macroeconomic pressures, indicating a strategic response to market conditions [20]. Research and Team Structure - Jinglin employs a unique model where fund managers share a common research platform, leading to consistent long-term performance across different managers [13]. - The firm emphasizes deep, comprehensive research, including extensive 360-degree evaluations of potential investments, involving various stakeholders [14]. International Expansion - Over the years, Jinglin has evolved from focusing solely on Chinese companies to researching industries in Asia and the U.S., enhancing its investment capabilities [17]. - Building a team capable of understanding overseas markets is crucial, as it involves grasping different business models and market dynamics [18][19]. Future Outlook - The private equity industry in China is expected to undergo consolidation, with a focus on quality over quantity, leading to the emergence of a few trusted firms over time [24]. - The Hong Kong market is anticipated to remain active, with increasing participation from international investors, which could provide better opportunities for Chinese companies [21].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Transcript Industry Overview - The conference call discusses macroeconomic conditions, particularly focusing on the US-China trade deal and its implications for various economies including the US, China, Europe, and Latin America [2][10]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **US-China Trade Deal**: The recent trade deal signifies a substantial de-escalation in trade tensions, prompting revisions in macro and market forecasts. The US growth forecast for 2023 has been increased to 1.0% from 0.5% [2][10]. 2. **Unemployment Rate**: The year-end unemployment rate forecast for the US has been lowered to 4.5% from 4.7% [2][10]. 3. **Recession Odds**: The odds of a recession in the US over the next 12 months have been reduced to 35% from 45% due to improved financial conditions [2][10]. 4. **Federal Reserve Rate Cuts**: The expectation for the Federal Reserve to initiate a series of three rate cuts has been moved to December, with cuts anticipated at an every-other-meeting pace [2][10]. 5. **China's Export Growth**: The forecast for China's export volume growth in 2025 has been revised to 0% from -5%, indicating a more stable outlook [2][10]. 6. **GDP Growth Forecasts**: GDP growth forecasts for 2025/26 have been raised for China (4.6%/3.8%), Korea (1.1%), Taiwan (3.5%), and Vietnam (5.5%) [2][10]. 7. **European Economic Outlook**: The Euro area’s GDP forecasts for 2025/26 have been increased to 0.9%/1.1%, and core inflation forecasts for Q4 2025/26 have been raised to 2.1%/1.8% [2][10]. 8. **UK Economic Projections**: The UK’s GDP growth forecasts for 2025/26 have been lifted to 1.2%/1.1%, with expectations for the Bank of England to cut rates to 3% in February [2][10]. 9. **Latin America**: The outlook for Mexico has improved, with no expected technical recession this year [2][10]. Market Implications 1. **S&P 500 Index Targets**: The 3/6/12 month targets for the S&P 500 index have been raised to 5900/6100/6500 from 5700/5900/6200, with EPS forecasts increased to $262 and $280 for this year and next, respectively [2][10]. 2. **STOXX Europe 600 Index**: The targets for the STOXX Europe 600 index have been lifted to 550/560/570 from 470/490/520 [2][10]. 3. **MSCI China and CSI300 Index**: The 12-month targets for MSCI China and CSI300 indices have been revised to 84 and 4600, respectively [2][10]. Additional Considerations 1. **Federal Reserve Independence**: Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have been raised, particularly in light of political pressures, which could lead to inflationary pressures and affect the appeal of the US Dollar and Treasuries [10][11]. 2. **US Household Balance Sheets**: US household balance sheets are reported to be healthy, with stable delinquency rates, except for student loans. Investors are advised to focus on segments with stronger borrower profiles [11][12]. 3. **Lessons from the UK Gilt Crisis**: The UK Gilt crisis has resulted in a higher risk premium for UK assets, which may serve as a cautionary tale for the US market regarding the growth-inflation trade-off [12][10]. Conclusion The conference call highlights a cautiously optimistic outlook for global economies, particularly in light of the US-China trade deal, while also addressing potential risks related to Federal Reserve independence and household debt dynamics. The revisions in growth forecasts and market targets reflect a more favorable economic environment, albeit with caution advised for potential recessionary outcomes.

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the unique investment approach of Tang Jun, a FOF fund manager at Zhongtai Asset Management, emphasizing his focus on asset allocation and the concept of "return streams" to achieve stable returns [2][10]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Tang Jun's investment strategy is characterized by a broad vision and a rich variety of return streams, resembling Bridgewater's "All Weather Strategy" [2]. - The core of asset allocation is to identify different "return streams," which represent independent asset returns, ensuring true diversification of underlying asset returns [10][12]. - Tang Jun believes that true diversification is not merely about holding more funds but capturing more independent return-driving logic [10]. Group 2: Methodology and Research - Tang Jun undertook a significant project to redefine industry classifications for over 1,600 listed companies, creating a more precise framework for quantitative stock selection [5][6]. - His classification resulted in 68 sub-industries, allowing for better comparability and understanding of different sectors [6]. - The experience of market constraints led Tang Jun to realize the limitations of quantitative strategies, prompting him to incorporate macroeconomic perspectives into his investment methodology [7][19]. Group 3: Asset Allocation Strategy - Tang Jun's asset allocation involves a three-tiered approach: macro-level judgments, mid-level analysis of industry or thematic expectations, and micro-level product selection [15][17]. - He emphasizes the importance of understanding the correlation between asset classes when making allocation decisions, rather than relying solely on the inherent risk of each asset class [12][20]. - The current macro environment influences Tang Jun's strategic asset allocation, focusing on credit expansion and monetary conditions to guide investment decisions [19][20]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Recommendations - Tang Jun expresses a desire for more diverse fund products, particularly in bond ETFs, Smart Beta funds, and commodity funds, to enhance his investment choices [21].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a diversified asset allocation strategy, highlighting the performance of various asset classes, particularly gold and equities, in the current market environment [2][3][4]. Group 1: Asset Performance - COMEX gold ranked second in 2024 with a return of 27.65%, closely trailing the Nasdaq index [2]. - The asset allocation strategy of fund manager Tang Jun has evolved, with gold being a significant holding, peaking at nearly 18% mid-2024, but later decreasing to 13.71% by the end of Q4 2024 [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy - Tang Jun's investment approach is characterized by a "top-down" strategy that emphasizes low correlation among underlying assets, distinguishing it from traditional FOF managers [8][10]. - He focuses on the concept of "return streams," which involves optimizing risk and enhancing portfolio performance by reducing correlation among assets [10][65]. Group 3: Macro and Micro Analysis - The macroeconomic factors influencing asset allocation include monetary policy and credit expansion, which have become more significant than traditional economic cycles [44][46]. - Tang Jun's framework for asset allocation is structured into three levels: macroeconomic drivers, expectation differences, and low-correlation return streams [106]. Group 4: Tactical Adjustments - Tactical adjustments in asset allocation are made based on market conditions, with a focus on maintaining a disciplined approach to risk management [51][88]. - The strategy includes a dynamic adjustment of asset weights based on macroeconomic indicators and market sentiment, such as the performance of small-cap stocks and the behavior of retail investors [37][39]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The outlook for 2025 suggests that domestic asset allocation will depend on credit expansion, while international considerations will focus on U.S. fiscal policies and their impact on inflation and risk assets [101][103].