March 12, 2025 05:00 AM GMT Quantitative Equity Research Quant Matters – Alpha Opportunities in Index Tracking M Minimising tracking errors in index funds may increase trading costs by buying high and selling low. Our study in the US, Europe, and Japan suggests investors should act quickly post- index changes to secure alpha. Key Takeaways The 4 Dimensions Update (framework in this report) & Factor Views: Europe – Up vs Down EPS Revisions (3ma) (+), Net Buyback Yield (+), FCF Yield (+). We revise the 10Y re ...

March 12, 2025 09:00 PM GMT Asia EM Equity Strategy | Asia Pacific Asia/EM Market Allocation – Defensive and Domestic Rotation: Move UW Australia and Increase Taiwan UW With valuations and trade exposure coming under pressure, we move to an UW stance on Australia and increase our Taiwan UW. We advise positioning in India, Japan (especially domestics), Singapore and UAE, with China tech-related sectors also likely to outperform in a deeper global equity correction. US growth downgrade and policy uncertainty ...

12 March 2025 Equity Research Report China Banks Equities Corporate business a key growth driver; NIM likely to stabilise We visited major joint-stock banks (JSBs) and city commercial banks (CCBs) in February. Our key takeaways are as follows: Prefer BoJS, BoSZ, and BoNB (all rated Buy), as: (1) BoJS and BoSZ have undemanding valuations and higher dividend yields among A-share banks; (2) these three banks are located in the regions with resilient economy, rich infrastructure projects and industrial park upg ...

Asia Pacific Equity Research 12 March 2025 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. China Merchants Bank Gauging ROE expansion potential and re-rating opportunity CMB-A/H shares have increased 11%/19% YTD, outperforming the CSI-300 bank and MSCI China ...

USA | Energy Equity Research March 12, 2025 Lower-than-Expected Crude Inventory Build; Distillate and Gasoline Draw Inventories drew this week, with total crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventory decreasing ~5.85mn bbl vs BBG estimate of a ~0.39mn bbl build. Full accounting within. Within, we graphically break down inventories (including & excluding SPR) and demand by both product and PADD, while comparing results to weekly, quarterly, and year-ago levels. Exhibit 1 - Weekly Change in Oil and Products ...

V i e w p o i n t | 12 Mar 2025 17:51:34 ET │ 9 pages North America Hardware & Storage Expert Call: Megatrends: Storage Supply Demand Dynamics Update. HDD Demand Persists, Supply Tightness; Flash 2H Improvement CITI'S TAKE On March 12th, we hosted a call with HDD/SSD experts, TrendFocus, following their recent Asia visit. We summarize the key takeaways inside based on the experts' opinion. HDD HDD build plans appear stable, with fairly solid demand continuing, on track for steady growth for 2025. Nearline d ...

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research 12 March 2025 (1-212) 622-6581 ryan.j.brinkman@jpmorgan.com Rajat Gupta After a slow start to the year and in consideration of the growing reactions toward the brand, which could worsen the trend, we now expect Tesla 1Q25 deliveries of just ~355K, which is -8% y/y from 387K in 1Q24 and -28% q/q from 495K in 4Q24, while also down substantially from our prior estimate of 444K and -15% below Bloomberg consensus for 418K. On account of the material 1Q deliveries sho ...

11 March 2025 | 6:16PM EDT Americas Technology: Hardware: AI data center equipment 4Q24 market share & outlook update BOTTOM LINE: We update our industry networking and server models to reflect the latest available data from 650 Group. In 4Q24, ANET & CSCO gained share in AI Ethernet while NVDA lost share. In the AI server market, DELL & SMCI lost share to white box in the quarter. Our 2025-2028 outlook for AI data center infrastructure is largely unchanged. KEY NUMBERS: 1. Networking and server industry es ...

Summary of PetroChina Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: PetroChina (0857.HK) - **Industry**: China Energy & Chemicals - **Stock Rating**: Overweight - **Price Target**: HK$8.30 - **Current Price (as of March 11, 2025)**: HK$5.85 - **52-Week Range**: HK$8.60 - HK$5.34 - **Fiscal Year Ending**: December 2023 Key Financial Metrics - **EPS Estimates**: - 2023: Rmb 0.9 - 2024e: Rmb 0.9 - 2025e: Rmb 0.9 - 2026e: Rmb 0.9 - **Sales/Revenue**: - 2023: Rmb 2,656,383 million - 2024e: Rmb 3,129,822 million - **EBITDA**: - 2023: Rmb 420,896 million - 2024e: Rmb 683,191 million - **Net Income**: - 2023: Rmb 155,488 million - 2024e: Rmb 175,900 million Investment Thesis - **Best Yield Play**: PetroChina is considered the best yield play in the energy sector due to its gas price reform and rich natural gas resources, which are crucial for China's carbon neutrality goals [10][4] - **Gas Segment Potential**: The value of the gas segment is expected to increase as market-oriented pricing mechanisms develop, with imported gas losses manageable in the current oil price environment [10][4] - **Downstream Profitability**: The downstream businesses have shown rapid profitability improvements in recent years [11][10] Risk and Reward Analysis - **Price Target Scenarios**: - **Base Case**: Price target of HK$8.30 (+41.88% from current price) with a probability of 5.1% [7][8] - **Bull Case**: Long-term oil price at US$95/bbl, implying a price target of HK$16.70 (+185.47%) [8][10] - **Bear Case**: Long-term oil price at US$60/bbl, with a lower potential for the gas segment [14][10] Market Conditions - **Oil Price Forecast**: - Brent crude oil prices are expected to average US$79/bbl in 2024, US$74/bbl in 2025, and US$71/bbl in 2026 [8][16] - **Gas Volume Growth**: Anticipated growth of 5.1% in 2023, with a steady 6% growth expected in subsequent years [16][10] Consensus and Analyst Ratings - **Consensus Rating Distribution**: - 94% Overweight - 6% Equal-weight - 0% Underweight [13][10] Key Risks - **Upside Risks**: Stronger-than-expected Chinese economic growth, higher oil prices, and increased gas demand due to reforms [21][20] - **Downside Risks**: Weaker-than-expected economic growth, lower oil prices, and inflationary pressures [21][20] Important Dates - **Annual Shareholders Meeting**: Scheduled for June 9, 2025 [16][10] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding PetroChina, highlighting its financial outlook, investment thesis, market conditions, and associated risks.

Key Takeaways from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Aviation** sector within the **Asia Pacific** region, specifically analyzing international air capacity and its recovery post-pandemic [1][58]. Core Insights - As of March 10, 2025, **non-domestic Available Seat Kilometers (ASK)** was at **78%** of the levels seen in **2019**, remaining unchanged from the previous week [2][11]. - Year-over-year, China's total absolute non-domestic ASK increased by **19%**, indicating a positive trend in air travel demand [5][11]. - Excluding routes to the **US**, the recovery of non-domestic ASK reached **87%** of 2019 levels, also stable compared to the previous week [11]. - Capacity changes were noted on specific routes: - **Japan** and **US** routes saw a **1%** increase in capacity week-over-week. - **Korea** and **Macau** routes experienced reductions of **3%** and **6%**, respectively [11]. - Year-over-year ASK growth was significant for: - **Japan**: **48%** - **US**: **42%** - **Hong Kong**: **13%** - **Korea**: **12%** - Conversely, ASK decreased for **Macau** by **3%** and for **Thailand** by **12%** [11]. Capacity Recovery by Destination - Seat capacity recovery for selected destinations as of March 2025: - **Japan**: **113%** of 2019 levels - **Thailand**: **54%** - **Korea**: **82%** - **US**: **31%** [11]. Additional Insights - The report highlights that **Hong Kong's** air capacity had been reduced in the second half of 2019 due to social unrest, which may have ongoing implications for recovery [4]. - The data presented is sourced from **OAG** and **Morgan Stanley Research**, indicating a reliance on reputable industry data for analysis [4][8]. Conclusion - The aviation sector in China is showing signs of recovery, with significant increases in capacity and ASK on certain routes, while others are still lagging behind. The overall trend suggests a gradual return to pre-pandemic levels, particularly for routes to Japan and the US, while challenges remain for routes to Macau and Thailand [11].